New credit card guarantees. Restaurant list, policy & common questions in 1st post

[maxiesmom]

For your reading enjoyment, I present my theory on the policy...

Meeting between 2 senior managers of the dining division…


Exec 1 - Man, we are taking a beating with this dining plan.

Exec 2 - I know. It’s doing great for parks, but they’re putting it all on our back.

Exec 1 - I know, I haven’t hit my numbers in forever. So while they’re all cashing big bonuses, what are we getting? ZIPPO!

Exec 2 - Tell me about it. We’ve done what we can on the cost side. We’ve streamlined the menus, gone cheap on some items.

Exec 1 - Yeah, we don’t have a cost problem – we have a top line revenue problem.

Exec 2 - How can we generate any more revenue though? That stupid dining plan doesn’t have a variable rate and we’re already at the limit of turning off those that actually pay.

Exec 1 - Hey, what about no-shows?

Exec 2 - What about no-shows? Our utilization rates aren’t the problem – I just got the reports that we’re sitting at 87.6%. So we can’t really put more butts in the seats. When someone doesn’t show we have plenty of people in wait to fill the seat.

Exec 1 - I don’t know. One of the analysts sent me a report on the number of no-shows. I’m just brainstorming.

Exec 2 - Wait, what if we started changing for the no-shows somehow?

Exec 1 - I’m listening…

Exec 2 - We already take a pre-payment for some restaurants like CG and CRT – let’s just add more restaurants to the list.

Exec 1 - Yeah, but if we start charging people will just cancel to avoid the charge.

Exec 2 - Unless we make it difficult for them. Like make them cancel at least the day before or we hit them for $10. $10 isn’t much – we can get buy-in on that. And people are on vacation, they’re not going to be thinking about canceling a restaurant reservation a day ahead. They’re in Disney – the most magical place in the world! (laughs)

Exec 1 - Even better, why not $10/head?

Exec 2 - Good point. $10/head is better.

Exec 1 - I’m going to start liking hurricane season. CHA-CHING!!

Exec 2 - So what restaurants do we want to do – all of them?

Exec 1 - No, we better do this in phases or we’ll just look greedy.

Exec 2 - Good point. But we need to include some that will make this worth it.

(in unison) - CHARACTER MEALS!!!

Exec 1 - I can smell that bonus. Baby's gonna have a good christmas this year.

Exec 2 - Me too. Let’s go run it by marketing. I’m sure they can spin this as some kind of positive crap about making for a better and more consistent guest experience garbage.

Exec 1 - Yeah, that’s what they get paid to do.

(high five as they leave the room)

And on what evidence are you basing this theory? Other than that apparently in your eyes it is evil of a business to want to make money?

 

[tarheelmjfan]

Technically you can't call WDW all hours of the night. Well, you could, but they don't answer after 10pm EST. I think ADR's open up at 7am EST.

Y'know....once uopn a time CRT was difficult to get. Now it's actually pretty easy to get. I think the policy has actually greatly reduced the number of folks who are trying to et CRT and Askershus. I simply don't buy the idea that all of a sudden Disney has no idea when and where it's guests are dining. It makes no sense. They've been doing this of 40 years.




The only other idea that makes sense to me is that Disney is rolling out a new concept.

My guess is that what Disney is really trying to do is to get away from the current ADR system altogether. Just like they did with strollers. There's talk of Disney bringing outa new kind of fastpass system for yoru entire vacation. My vote is that dining is going to be part of the new way of doing things.

The new system is going to be part Disney touring plan, part fastpass, and part Dining 'fastpass' all rolled into one. With your smart phone - or one WDW provides - you can tell WDW what you want to do next. It will give you a fastpass for the restaurant. Maybe even take your order before you arrive.

In exchange, Disney will pledge to reduce the time you spend in line.

For Disney's part, instead of having all guests rush to TSM for a fastpass - they will disperse guests evenly across all the park attractions. Thus all attractions will be at capacity first thing - instead of having an uneven number of guests rushing to TSM, Soarin' and Space Mtn. Make all meals a part of the new system. If Disney is centrally distributing all of your fastpasses and ADR's AND they know excatly when you use them - then they will actually have a very great idea of when to expect you at the restaurant.


Plus, they now have a RFD tag in your soda cup....Dont think they aren't going to collect THAT data!

I realize WDW dining isn't open 24/7. I was just offering a scenario that would fit the situation the PP suggested. I can see that happening, if it were possible.

Personally, I like the option of making ADRs, which is why I'm happy they're trying to do something to fine tune the system. It will be an improvement for those of us who consider ADRs a commitment & plan our day to assure we show up. If your scenario ever does come to fruition, I'll learn to work within that system too.

But obviously they track that very carefully and plan for it. Several have argued the point that they can'thttp://www.wdwinfo.com/images/smilies/laughing.gif believe Disney would understaff if they could be filling tables. I can't digest the opposite - that keeping one extra server on hand at $5 per hour would really break their bottom line.

Disney HAS WAY more data than 99% of restaurants on the planet.

If it were my business, I would certainly be trying something to prevent 10% to 33% no shows. If hitting people in their wallet is the only thing that will get their attention, I would try that.

ETA: I also don't think having one extra server would break their bottom line, which is why I can't imagine they would purposely under staff & leave tables empty.

 

[rhino78]

But obviously they track that very carefully and plan for it. Several have argued the point that they can't believe Disney would understaff if they could be filling tables. I can't digest the opposite - that keeping one extra server on hand at $5 per hour would really break their bottom line.

Disney HAS WAY more data than 99% of restaurants on the planet.

That doesn't matter if the data doesn't show you anything. You can't plan for a no show rate that varies too much. No amount of data will help if the rate is between 10 and 30 percent for example. There is simply too much uncertainty. This policy would allow restaurants to be more flexible dealing with changing conditions.

 

[Colleen27]

And on what evidence are you basing this theory? Other than that apparently in your eyes it is evil of a business to want to make money?

That line just gets trotted out to shut down opposing arguments, IMO. No one has said Disney shouldn't be making money. What has been said is that there has to be balance between guest service and profit and that a 24hr cancellation policy tips those scales signficantly in Disney's favor. It adds a new revenue stream at the expense of guest satisfaction and makes using their marquee "upsell" product (the dining plans) much more difficult, with no significant upside for the guest.

 

[Colleen27]

I knew I had read something about the no-show rates somewhere, and I just found it on Touring Plans:


"The no-show rate in January, a slow month, is about 33%, while in July it's less than 10%."


10% is a very high percentage...33% is absurd. You have to wonder what took them so long to finally take measures to try to reduce that number.

But they plan for that by overbooking by a certain percentage, and assuming any reasonable level of competence the ADR system should vary the overbooking rate based on that seasonal data. In fact, that planning is the excuse I've been given by DISers and CMs alike for why our Le Cellier experiences have been so bad - that Disney books based on that 33% no-show rate in the slow season but Le Cellier is so popular that more people than expected show up, causing the restaurant to run an hour or more behind in seating.

 

[tarheelmjfan]

Y'know....once uopn a time CRT was difficult to get. Now it's actually pretty easy to get. I think the policy has actually greatly reduced the number of folks who are trying to et CRT and Askershus. I simply don't buy the idea that all of a sudden Disney has no idea when and where it's guests are dining. It makes no sense. They've been doing this of 40 years.

I forgot to address this in my earlier post. It's now easier to get CRT, because those who book it will be charged, if they don't show up. Now, people who book it are serious about going. This is why I like the new policy. Hopefully, it will cut down on those who make ADRs, just in case they want to go.

 

[Snurk71]

And on what evidence are you basing this theory? Other than that apparently in your eyes it is evil of a business to want to make money?

satire is sooooooo underappreciated

 

[Snurk71]

And on what evidence are you basing this theory? Other than that apparently in your eyes it is evil of a business to want to make money?

And in case you're curious...

theory

 

[Snurk71]

And on what evidence are you basing this theory? Other than that apparently in your eyes it is evil of a business to want to make money?

By the way, I'm a capitalist - I'm actually a dirty CFO that supposedly just cares about profits. But as a business manager/analyst, I just think Disney, as a service-focused organization selling "magical experiences", could build a better mousetrap and ultimately make even more money!!!

Create more magic and the profits will flow..

 

[Mkrop]

I knew I had read something about the no-show rates somewhere, and I just found it on Touring Plans:


"The no-show rate in January, a slow month, is about 33%, while in July it's less than 10%."




10% is a very high percentage...33% is absurd. You have to wonder what took them so long to finally take measures to try to reduce that number.

This seems like a duh moment no kidding stat to me. In July it is warm and people are out and about from early morning until late thus wanting to keep those ADRs to get into the A/C.

In January (and yes I have been there then) I think people underestimate how cold it can be in FL at night and then dont want to venture out to a park. I know you think they should be charged then but to me if they feel like the kids(or grandma) is not going to do well in the cold, then they should cancel, if they decide to just blow it off then they should be charged.

We had a ADR at Cape May Cafe one of those blustery nights, and there were tons of people trying to get walkups. Many were flipping out bc it was too cold to go to the park, where should they eat. I was glad we had no other plans that night and we only had to walk back to BW bc it was cold.

Maybe I should stop going in Dec and Jan bc leaving Philly some years to escape the cold aint working!

 

[maxiesmom]

By the way, I'm a capitalist - I'm actually a dirty CFO that supposedly just cares about profits. But as a business manager/analyst, I just think Disney, as a service-focused organization selling "magical experiences", could build a better mousetrap and ultimately make even more money!!!

Create more magic and the profits will flow..

But doesn't it seem that the magic of open ended ADRs is not working, at least from Disney's standpoint? Right now guests can book ADRs without end, amen, and without penalty. Disney is not going totally the other way and charging a huge fee for every single restaurant. They are trying to hit more near the middle with a small fee for the most popular restaurants. They could have gone totally crazy and made people pay in full for every single ADR or some such thing.

Apparently the magic of free ADRs is just creating a headache for Disney. There needs to be a balance, it can't be all the guest's way either.

 

[mom2rtk]

So when did they stop allowing people to double book online? I'm thinking it wasn't even 6 months ago, so they really haven't had the chance to see if that will make any sort of difference. I know there are ways around it, but it would have been nice to see if it acted as any sort of deterrent before jumping to the cash penalty.

 

[SmallWorld71]

This seems like a duh moment no kidding stat to me. In July it is warm and people are out and about from early morning until late thus wanting to keep those ADRs to get into the A/C.

In January (and yes I have been there then) I think people underestimate how cold it can be in FL at night and then dont want to venture out to a park. I know you think they should be charged then but to me if they feel like the kids(or grandma) is not going to do well in the cold, then they should cancel, if they decide to just blow it off then they should be charged.

We had a ADR at Cape May Cafe one of those blustery nights, and there were tons of people trying to get walkups. Many were flipping out bc it was too cold to go to the park, where should they eat. I was glad we had no other plans that night and we only had to walk back to BW bc it was cold.

Maybe I should stop going in Dec and Jan bc leaving Philly some years to escape the cold aint working!

I would even venture to say that your chance of getting sick is much higher in January than in July due to the climate change for many people. For us to travel in Jan., we would be going from snow, ice and below freezing temps to quite possible the 60's and higher. In July, we are going from 80's/ 90's to 90's. We typically travel to FL in Feb. and August (sometimes to relatives in SW FL) and the only times (knock on wood) that we have ever had illness, was in Feb., never in August.

In addition, with the parks so empty in January, there's a very good chance that you can get a new ADR that suits you if you have a change in plans. It might not be at a place on that list, but there'll be somewhere.

It makes perfect sense that the no show rate in Jan. would be more than 3 times higher than in July.

 

[Colleen27]

I would even venture to say that your chance of getting sick is much higher in January than in July due to the climate change for many people. For us to travel in Jan., we would be going from snow, ice and below freezing temps to quite possible the 60's and higher. In July, we are going from 80's/ 90's to 90's. We typically travel to FL in Feb. and August (sometimes to relatives in SW FL) and the only times (knock on wood) that we have ever had illness, was in Feb., never in August.

In addition, with the parks so empty in January, there's a very good chance that you can get a new ADR that suits you if you have a change in plans. It might not be at a place on that list, but there'll be somewhere.

It makes perfect sense that the no show rate in Jan. would be more than 3 times higher than in July.

There's also a lot more going around in the winter because that's cold/flu/RSV season for most of the places that Disney guests travel from - threads about flu, norovirus, and non-specific stomach or respiratory ailments are an annual fixture here on the DIS and often run dozens of pages long.

On our Dec '09 Disney trip we left windchills below zero and landed in FL to 85° and sunny; while lovely, that's not easy on the system and proved to be a migraine trigger for me, and then a few days later 3 of the 5 of us fell victim to the puking crud that was going around (and since that particular puking crud was the subject of a very long thread on the theme parks board I don't think we were alone in that). And that's a big part of why I have such a negative opinion of this policy - we cancelled one ADR and showed up 1/2 short for two others. None of them were penalty reservations then but all three will be when this goes into effect, so we'd have been out $80 on top of all the other money wasted because of the lost park/resort time.

 

[Colleen27]

So when did they stop allowing people to double book online? I'm thinking it wasn't even 6 months ago, so they really haven't had the chance to see if that will make any sort of difference. I know there are ways around it, but it would have been nice to see if it acted as any sort of deterrent before jumping to the cash penalty.

It wasn't 6mo ago. That feature went live in late June of this year. And I agree, it would have been nice to see if it helped before taking this next step.

 

[Lewisc]

If there wasn't a big problem, Disney wouldn't be going to charging a fee for no-shows. As much as people may not like it, there is a problem with no-shows, and Disney has to do something to limit them. And the fee needs to be a relatively small amount, but one that people will still notice, or what would be the point of it?

We have no idea if it's a big problem or if Disney is just looking for an additional revenue stream. The $10 fee can winds up being more then half the cost of meal. Family of 4 for breakfast.

I think that is the point. Charge only $10 a reservation, and people will have the attitude of oh well, it is only $10. No big deal. But charge $10 a person, and people will feel that, and won't be so quick to skip a meal.

There has to be a penalty that people will notice and not like. Or there is no point to it.

We don't know if there has to be a penalty at all. Other restaurants don't charge for last minute cancellations or no shows. Other restaurants don't have thousands of captives guests available as walk ups.

A charge of even $10 reservation might be enough to let guests know the courtesy of a phone call is appreciated.

I knew I had read something about the no-show rates somewhere, and I just found it on Touring Plans:


"The no-show rate in January, a slow month, is about 33%, while in July it's less than 10%."


10% is a very high percentage...33% is absurd. You have to wonder what took them so long to finally take measures to try to reduce that number.

I'm not sure where touring plans gets their information. I have no idea if it's accurate. It's also conceivable a no-show guest in Jan knows the restaurant will be half empty and doesn't see the need to call. Obviously they still should call but I could understand that reasoning.

And on what evidence are you basing this theory? Other than that apparently in your eyes it is evil of a business to want to make money?

You have no evidence to support any of your statements and "facts". Pot--Kettle--Black

We have no if there is a problem with "no-shows". We have no idea if Disney is just looking for a new revenue source. The DDP are the ones who are told to make an ADR for every meal. They may be the "no shows". This could be an, indirect way, of having guests pay more for dining.

That doesn't matter if the data doesn't show you anything. You can't plan for a no show rate that varies too much. No amount of data will help if the rate is between 10 and 30 percent for example. There is simply too much uncertainty. This policy would allow restaurants to be more flexible dealing with changing conditions.

Sure you can. The statistics posted, not sure I buy them, say the no-show rate is 33% in Jan but 10% in July. Overbook tables by 33% in Jan and 10% in July and you're good to go.

But doesn't it seem that the magic of open ended ADRs is not working, at least from Disney's standpoint? Right now guests can book ADRs without end, amen, and without penalty. Disney is not going totally the other way and charging a huge fee for every single restaurant. They are trying to hit more near the middle with a small fee for the most popular restaurants. They could have gone totally crazy and made people pay in full for every single ADR or some such thing.

Apparently the magic of free ADRs is just creating a headache for Disney. There needs to be a balance, it can't be all the guest's way either.

Again we have no idea if the fee is designed to solve a problem or just create new revenue. You keep talking about a small fee. Assume a family with at least one kid under 2 and at least 1 child. The fee is 33%-50% the total cost of the meal. The fee for dinner is almost 25% if your group doesn't have any kids. Restaurants could conceivably make more profit from a no-show then from a customer who dines.

SOME QUESTIONS:

1. I normally make 1 or 2 ADRs. I plan my schedule and keep them. Others book 10 or more ADRs and skip some of them. Assume the guest keeps just over half. Maybe 6. Which guest is more profitable to Disney? The guest who makes 2 ADRs and keeps them or the guest who makes 10 and keeps 6?
2. Suppose there is driving rain. A lot of guests are no-shows. There aren't enough walk ups to fill the openings. Is that the cost of doing business or should a restaurant expect the missing diners to pay?
3. Assume the no-show rate is extremely high. 50% (or more). Does that suggest a lot of rude guests? or Does it suggest the Disney vacation experience doesn't work with firm reservations?
   

I'm not suggesting going back to same day dining reservations in EPCOT. Lines at the phones. I'm suggesting Saving spots for walk ups. Using video boards and text messages to let guests know currently availability is one solution.

 

[mcd2745]

But they plan for that by overbooking by a certain percentage, and assuming any reasonable level of competence the ADR system should vary the overbooking rate based on that seasonal data. In fact, that planning is the excuse I've been given by DISers and CMs alike for why our Le Cellier experiences have been so bad - that Disney books based on that 33% no-show rate in the slow season but Le Cellier is so popular that more people than expected show up, causing the restaurant to run an hour or more behind in seating.

If 33% is the average for the month of January, it is safe to assume that there is a wide variance from day to day. That is incredibly difficuly for Disney to manage. Let's use the excuse of the moment - weather. January can be very tricky. So in July, they open up ADRs for January and build in an extra 33% capacity because that is the January average. So let's say Crystal Palace is pretty much fully booked as it normally is for most of the month. The 2nd week of January is unusally cold and that week they actually average about 50% no-shows. So now they have a fully staffed, yet 30-40% empty restaurant. The next week the weather changes dramtaically, it turns real warm. For that week, they only average about 15% no-shows. Now, you have massive back-ups and waits beacuse they assumed 33% would no-show. How are they supposed to effectively plan and run these restaurants with such variance?

Even the 10% in July is a very high rate with too much variance. And the higher the rate goes, so does the variance in all likelihood. Getting those numbers down to reasonable figures will allow them to manage staff and turn tables over much more effectively which yes, will help their bottom line and hopefully also improve customer experience with better service and less wait times.

This seems like a duh moment no kidding stat to me. In July it is warm and people are out and about from early morning until late thus wanting to keep those ADRs to get into the A/C.

That it is 3x higher in January over July is not a total surprise. But we're not talking 2% and 6%. Those seem like reasonable numbers to me. 10% - 33% is a ridiculous amount of no-shows and illustrates the attitude that many people have had toward their ADRs- that they feel little or no committment to them. Those numbers IMO clearly justify Disney's actions with this policy. {Edited to Add:} Now, that's not to say they could have attempted other measures, as there are always alternatives. I've always said if they drastically reduce the ADR window to 45 days or less, it would drastically cut down on the hoarding and no-shows. But they chose this particular course of action, as was their perrogative.

 

[ronnmel]

The only people this would really affect are the ones who make multiple reservations and then don't go to a lot of them. Sure, everyone might miss a reservation at some point due to unforeseen consequences, but most go to their ADRs.

People are not paying any more for their food if they are present. So it really only becomes a viable source of extra revenue if lots of people don't show up. If enough people are no-show that it makes this new fee profitable, then no-shows are probably a problem.

The extra revenue and no-show problem are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they are more linked.

 

[mom2rtk]

Maybe the no-show rate in January had to do with the unseasonably cold weather and people deciding it wasn't worth the trek out early or late in the day in the bitter cold. And yes last winter had lots of bitter cold. I think this is one of the problems with this policy. It gives the customer no chance to change their minds the day of their ADR. I think a 3 hour window would be far better.

And they need to add free wireless internet in the mods and value resorts so people can cancel online without yet another nickel, dime ten dollar bill flying out the window.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

I'm suggesting Saving spots for walk ups. Using video boards and text messages to let guests know currently availability is one solution.

Here, here! to all you said. I was going to post almost the same points last night but changed my mind...

I agree with you. I'm really starting think the only way this all makes sense is if Disney is going to do something similar to your last sentence.

Allow those diners who REALLY want to make 180 ADR's to continue for some time - but impose a crazy fee that discourages most guests from doing that while simulatneously offering and promoting a new, better paradigm.

The new system will be something like a 'dining fastpass' via smartphone. I'm thinking it won't be so much pure text message as a revamp of the app Disney is currently promoting, Mobile Magic. No need to have guests use a kiosk - they can simply put in a request using their phone. They can also look over the menu, read reviews. It will be something like call ahead waiting that many chains currently offer.

Also, to those that say Disney has no idea of numbers....Surely they are ALREADY using Mobile Magic to track numbers. How would Disney NOT know that there's a correlation between the number of guests in line for Soarin' and the number of guests who are going to show at Garden Grill for dinner? That seems absurd to me in this day and age.

Guests won't bother making surplus ADR's (even unintentional surplus ones)because they won't have to make them until the day they want to dine.

In order to use the new system, I'm guessing you might actually need to have a Disney dining plan. That way Disney can track exactly how many guests they will need to accomodate. They can also make an exclusive perk (package deal ) for onsite guests.

I'm also guessing that Disney is going to have to increase capacity. Interesting to note that the fee system of CRT has dramatically decreased demand, while making Le Cellier a double credit has not significantly reduced demand. Disney already knows that a fee will discourage guests from making reservations, but making a single credit into a double credit does not decrease demand. I can't fathom that Disney doesn't know already that the new fee is going to significantly reduce demand. I'm not talking about reducing no shows - I'm talking about overall demand.