Park Hopping - Observations + Thoughts 2021

[sethschroeder]

The statement I have bolded brings up a question for me. It's my understanding that you can leave the park ( for an afternoon break for example) but still come back later in the same day. So do "spaces open up as people leave"? Theoretically, if that statement is true, I could leave, someone could take my "space", and I could still come back later that day, essentially doubling the attendance at that park. There's a serious flaw in there somewhere if Disney is trying to keep attendance down.

Except a good amount of people when leaving at 2PM are not coming back to the park when it closes at 6pm or 7pm.

We don't know for certain how it will work but at the same time I would expect Disney to make a guess based on data they have collected. Possibly its only opening 25% of the spaces of people leaving the park. Possibly its only after people check in to other parks.

One thing I would bet is that Disney will have modeling to predict "returners" in the afternoon as to avoid hitting whatever cap Disney has in place.

For all we know they might limit park reservations to 30% and hopping to 35%. If they happen to book all 4 parks at 30% they open up 1% in each park. Since all 4 parks don't really all book its an easy way to build in a buffer for hopping. Example today there is still space in Epcot and this week should be the busiest time outside of Easter over the next 12 months until we hit Christmas again.

 

[cjlong88]

Do you think park hopping might positively impact wait times after 2pm at parks that are closing earlier?

I can imagine a lot of guests with PH will decide to start their day at a park that opens early like AK and then plan to hop over to a park that closes later such as Epcot. But I doubt a lot of guests will choose to do it the other way around, especially if AK keeps its closing time at 5 or 6 pm and Epcot keeps its opening time at 11am. Could that mean see wait times at a park like AK dip and wait times at a park like Epcot tick up in the afternoon?

 

[samantha3590]

Do you think park hopping might positively impact wait times after 2pm at parks that are closing earlier?

I can imagine a lot of guests with PH will decide to start their day at a park that opens early like AK and then plan to hop over to a park that closes later such as Epcot. But I doubt a lot of guests will choose to do it the other way around, especially if AK keeps its closing time at 5 or 6 pm and Epcot keeps its opening time at 11am. Could that mean see wait times at a park like AK dip and wait times at a park like Epcot tick up in the afternoon?

I was thinking the same thing! I may have a strategy to hop to AK in the afternoon for 3 hours with the hope of maybe people will have left? When we were two weeks ago we accomplished all we wanted to in AK in about 3 hours

 

[Rich M]

Can't wait to start seeing people thoughts tomorrow when this goes live. I will be park hopping Jan 10th to Jan 14th and am excited to share my experience.

 

[Heather07438]

We come in early 1/8. 1st hop will be on Sunday 1/10 from MK to EP. Art Fest here we come!!!

 

[Rich M]

We come in early 1/8. 1st hop will be on Sunday 1/10 from MK to EP. Art Fest here we come!!!

We will also be at MK in the morning but Hoping to HS for dinner. Most other nights we plan to hop to Epcot since we are staying at Beach Club. We have no plans to go to Epcot accept to Hop. Its the sole reason we bought the hoppers

 

[Heather07438]

We will also be at MK in the morning but Hoping to HS for dinner. Most other nights we plan to hop to Epcot since we are staying at Beach Club. We have no plans to go to Epcot accept to Hop. Its the sole reason we bought the hoppers

We're at Beach Club too
Mostly using the hoppers to EP as well. That gives us more time in the other parks.

 

[jlwise]

Hello! We are rescheduled from our cancelled 2020 for next May. I had a question about the park reservations factoring in the park hopping. I’ve made the following park reservations:

MK
HS
AK
MK
HS
Epcot

Since we are staying at BC, my hope is to hop to Epcot most nights, and I only scheduled the last day in Epcot in case it’s full the other times we try. Do you think it will be hard to hop to Epcot, or does this plan seem reasonable? Also, since we are going at the end of May through the first week of June, is there a chance of park hours being extended and maybe fast passes coming back? Apologies if this is not posted in the right thread.

Thanks in advance for any help! Trip dates— May 30- June 6 (no park days on arrival day and departure day).

 

[Heather07438]

Do you think it will be hard to hop to Epcot, or does this plan seem reasonable?

It's hard to say 100% now due to capacity changes but I don't expect issues. You should be fine
Once in use we're sure to learn more and if necessary, how to work around potential snags.

Looks like a good plan! We've been watching park hours & looks like WDW is waiting much closer to dates to add more hours, probably since cancellations and travel outlook became harder to predict. Hours for our trip changed several times and again about 2-3 weeks out. They prefer not disappointing guests by reducing hours once posted, so for the most part they just keep adding hours here and there.

 

[jlwise]

It's hard to say 100% now due to capacity changes but I don't expect issues. You should be fine
Once in use we're sure to learn more and if necessary, how to work around potential snags.

Looks like a good plan! We've been watching park hours & looks like WDW is waiting much closer to dates to add more hours, probably since cancellations and travel outlook became harder to predict. Hours for our trip changed several times and again about 2-3 weeks out. They prefer not disappointing guests by reducing hours once posted, so for the most part they just keep adding hours here and there.

Thank you!! This makes sense. It’s a bit different trying to plan a trip without 180 day dining planning and fast passes, and the scary thing about the park reservation thing is I haven’t figured out how to change the park days without first cancelling my original choice. I’m not sure if that makes sense, but I’d much rather be able to swap and be told the park I want isn’t available versus cancelling and risking not getting something for that day. Thanks again for your reply!

 

[nekonekoneko]

The statement I have bolded brings up a question for me. It's my understanding that you can leave the park ( for an afternoon break for example) but still come back later in the same day. So do "spaces open up as people leave"? Theoretically, if that statement is true, I could leave, someone could take my "space", and I could still come back later that day, essentially doubling the attendance at that park. There's a serious flaw in there somewhere if Disney is trying to keep attendance down.

That's always a possibility, and could be a source of consternation. However, if there's something behind-the-scenes Disney is good at, it's crowd analytics. They already have an idea of how many people are going to leave, and not return. They have numbers from before the pandemic, they have numbers of people leaving early since the reopening. They know that, on the average, that x% people will come back, and to keep spots open for them.

Let's say, for example, that the return rate for MK is like 35% (I'm making these numbers up), and 10000 people have come and gone by 2:00. They know that about 3500 might return. So, to be safe, hold back 4500 spots, and allow 5500 people + whatever they were short to get to capacity in the morning, to hop in.

 

[Heather07438]

Thank you!! This makes sense. It’s a bit different trying to plan a trip without 180 day dining planning and fast passes, and the scary thing about the park reservation thing is I haven’t figured out how to change the park days without first cancelling my original choice. I’m not sure if that makes sense, but I’d much rather be able to swap and be told the park I want isn’t available versus cancelling and risking not getting something for that day. Thanks again for your reply!

Yeah, so far the only way is to cancel one before booking another. Hopefully availability stays good for your trip. The only thing blocked during our trip next week is HS for AP holders on weekends. Everything's still green for Resort Guests and Ticket Holders. Have fun at the Beach Club!

 

[sethschroeder]

Well everyone Hopping around starting today. Have to think right now will be the busiest until spring break.

I havent come across reports of people being turned away yet.

 

[sethschroeder]

Reports of people hitting all 4 parks.

Resortv1 just went from HS to MK. They check your ticket before you get on the bus to make sure you have a park hopper ticket.

 

[Rich M]

Reports of people hitting all 4 parks.

Resortv1 just went from HS to MK. They check your ticket before you get on the bus to make sure you have a park hopper ticket.

How does one hit 4 parks when they don’t allow hopping until 2? And it’s only 6 PM

 

[sethschroeder]

How does one hit 4 parks when they don’t allow hopping until 2? And it’s only 6 PM

Those testing the system just seeing you can do it.

 

[subtchr]

How does one hit 4 parks when they don’t allow hopping until 2? And it’s only 6 PM

They didn’t say they actually did anything at each park, just that they were able to visit them all!

 

[frannn]

Watched one of the vloggers who hopped to the remaining three parks in order of closure. They did a ride in each of the three parks except HS because a few were down so wait times were too long. They watched a cavalcade instead. Apparently the bus drivers and app are supposed to alert you if the park you are headed to is at capacity. Still waiting to learn if you are guaranteed entry back to the park you originally had a reservation at.

 

[Dug720]

Watched one of the vloggers who hopped to the remaining three parks in order of closure. They did a ride in each of the three parks except HS because a few were down so wait times were too long. They watched a cavalcade instead. Apparently the bus drivers and app are supposed to alert you if the park you are headed to is at capacity. Still waiting to learn if you are guaranteed entry back to the park you originally had a reservation at.

I would guess they will let you know if the park hits capacity while you're on the bus? I mean, it could still be open when you get on the bus but hit capacity before you get there.

In terms of entry back where you had a reservation, I have asked 5 different CMs via chat about this since I'm planning a Beaches & Cream lunch on my Studios day as there's not that much I'm interested in (Tower, MMRR, Muppets, and RnRC) but I'm not hopping. For once ALL FIVE of them have igven me the same answer. "Yes. Your reservation guarantees you the ability to exit and reenter that park for the day." And I have never had 5 different CMs tell me the exact same thing before!

To me it seems fairly logical. I have no clue about actual numbers, but let's just say:
Park A has a capacity of 25,000 guests.
On one day Park A has reservations by 10,000 guests. Therefore there are 15,000 available slots. Since you're scanning in on your Magic Band, phone, or plastic card, that should register if this is your reserved park so it will only allow 15,000 scans that were not reserved. Or just to have a cushion if they see things getting close a lot, they could release 12,000 slots for hopping reserving 3,000 for errors of people who had reservations and left and are coming back but for some reason it counts them wrong. It seems pretty straightforward to me, but maybe I'm missing something.

 

[sethschroeder]

but let's just say:

Ya fairly simple example but Disney likely has a ton of data on guest movement. Also with scanning bands it helps even more as they likely can see what percentage of individuals are onsite vs offsite have hoppers, in addition they can likely see that the prior day when you park hopped you used the bus system to do so.

Not having park closures right now is a good sign though for everyone going until Spring Break.