Poll: Are you going to buy at Riviera

[ray3127]

Not to be contrary to the folks that are advising you to wait but one data point to consider is that both VGF and PVB had a $5/point price increase less than a month after going on sale, though CCV did not. My guide told me this is dictated by the pace of sales. From the comments my guide made about how sales have been going, and just my own observation, I think we will see a price increase for Riviera sooner rather than later. Good luck wth your decision!

That's just it, I'm sure the price will increase, and we have the AP discount to take advantage of as well.

Totally didn't want to buy here (already have Epcot resort, 255 at BWV). But I am away and I got a text from DH. He got the brochure in the mail...and...he likes it. I don't think he wants to buy though.

I really thought our decision was settled, but we got this brochure as well... and yes, it looks nice.

 

[TexasChick123]

That's just it, I'm sure the price will increase, and we have the AP discount to take advantage of as well.


I really thought our decision was settled, but we got this brochure as well... and yes, it looks nice.

Don’t drive yourself crazy trying to predict the future. If you are ready to buy now because of the impending price increases on sold-out resorts as well as RR, I’d take a few more days to think about it and make a decision then after you’ve analyzed it to death. My DH and I have been trying to predict the timing of the next recession in vain for years. I always make a lot of spreadsheets for DVC purchases. It’s cathartic for me in a way whenever I second guess myself because I can refer to my spreadsheets. The numbers are what they are. Good luck with your decision!

 

[lovin'fl]

That's just it, I'm sure the price will increase, and we have the AP discount to take advantage of as well.


I really thought our decision was settled, but we got this brochure as well... and yes, it looks nice.

Would make a nice Mother's Day gift (just a little add on that we could put MIL and FIL's names on so they can be blue card carriers too)....no....no. We have enough points. We do!!! I'd sell our 200 OKW for 150 RR....no, wait, we can just use our OKW at RR. Just keep swimming...LOL.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Not to be contrary to the folks that are advising you to wait but one data point to consider is that both VGF and PVB had a $5/point price increase less than a month after going on sale, though CCV did not. My guide told me this is dictated by the pace of sales. From the comments my guide made about how sales have been going, and just my own observation, I think we will see a price increase for Riviera sooner rather than later. Good luck wth your decision!

Then wait longer. PVB had some better discounts later I believe. And CCV too I think. That often happens although not always. And overall it's better to be certain and then spend an extra $250 than to buy at a resort you actually decide you don't want to own at.

Also - it's not unknown for them to add discounts to a lower minimum point purchase later too.

That's just it, I'm sure the price will increase, and we have the AP discount to take advantage of as well.


I really thought our decision was settled, but we got this brochure as well... and yes, it looks nice.

 

[TexasChick123]

Would make a nice Mother's Day gift (just a little add on that we could put MIL and FIL's names on so they can be blue card carriers too)....no....no. We have enough points. We do!!! I'd sell our 200 OKW for 150 RR....no, wait, we can just use our OKW at RR. Just keep swimming...LOL.

You want to get in on the group therapy rate I’m going to negotiate for DVC addictions?

 

[Turn the Page]

I have thought a lot about everything being said over the last few weeks regarding Riviera. Is this a sound financial decision? No. Investing in the stock market has much better returns. If anyone is buying any timeshare thinking there are little to no risks associated with them, then they have pixie dust in their eyes.

We recently purchased a resale VGC contract for $165pp. While that is a good price for today's market, it is nowhere near the lowest people have purchased VGC for in the past. I think it went on sale around $112pp direct from Disney. We spent a lot of time debating whether or not we should wait for a recession to pick up some VGC points or buy now. My problem is that the timing of the next recession is impossible to predict. There are many indicators we are going into one now. There were many indicators a few years ago and a few before that as well. We purchased our home in 2013, and everyone knew we were headed into a recession because the fed couldn't raise interest rates by even the smallest amount without the market reacting dramatically. Here we are 6 years later, and no recession. There will be a recession at some point, and I hope to capitalize on it as best I can, but I cannot live my life waiting on one to happen. The best thing for any of us to do is buy our house, cars, vacations homes, stocks, etc. during the recession, yet very few of us do it. I do see that a timeshare is not as necessary as a home, but you get my point.

At the end of the day, I think (or I hope) most of us purchase these resorts based on where we want to stay. Many many people have purchased resorts that I do not like at all, but it is not my place to judge them or how they spend their money. Some of the resorts I don't like are some of the more sought after resorts, but I am not going to post about how much I didn't like them because it is rude when you think about how much money people have spent on these purchases. I think we all need to take a deep breath and be happy if we did purchase or happy if we did not and don't want to. Ok. I'm off my soap box now.

And even if we were to wait for a recession to buy how many times would we go to WDW and pay cash for a room in the intervening time? I wonder if it wouldn't be more financially prudent for us to wait another year before buying but then I think well, we're planning to go late this year and probably next year to so how much would I spend on cash stays I could instead put toward my DVC MF's.

 

[princessbride6205]

we're a hard no. I'm excited about the skyliner, the rooms look fine... but I hate CBR with a flaming passion and have no desire to have a view of THAT off my balcony.

I didn't think my husband was on the DIS...He could have written this exact post.

I voted "No - will add on elsewhere."
I was probably never going to buy DRR - I assumed I was a no and would see if the sales materials convinced me it was amazing. But it isn't just a resort-specific vote; we've never purchased direct. We've considered buying direct multiple times over the years but have only bought resale - multiple contracts over the past 10 years. Our first few contracts were before any restrictions, so if there are rooms available at the 7-month window, we will get a chance to try Riviera. I am interested in staying there, but not enough to buy sight-unseen and transportation-unseen. I think gondolas are going to be great, but want to make sure, since that transportation is the only thing that makes this resort have a desirable location for me.

Also - it is just me? - this thread is convincing me to look for a BWV resale contract.

 

[mixmastertoy]

I didn't think my husband was on the DIS...He could have written this exact post.

I voted "No - will add on elsewhere."
I was probably never going to buy DRR - I assumed I was a no and would see if the sales materials convinced me it was amazing. But it isn't just a resort-specific vote; we've never purchased direct. We've considered buying direct multiple times over the years but have only bought resale - multiple contracts over the past 10 years. Our first few contracts were before any restrictions, so if there are rooms available at the 7-month window, we will get a chance to try Riviera. I am interested in staying there, but not enough to buy sight-unseen and transportation-unseen. I think gondolas are going to be great, but want to make sure, since that transportation is the only thing that makes this resort have a desirable location for me.

Also - it is just me? - this thread is convincing me to look for a BWV resale contract.

I am in the same boat... BWV here I come

 

[ELMC]

Also - it is just me? - this thread is convincing me to look for a BWV resale contract.

You joke but it's actually a great point. One of the biggest benefits of reading these forums is that they help identify the various positives and drawbacks of the different home resorts so that we, as buyers, can align those attributes to the qualities in a resort that are important to us. In my case, five years ago I knew I wanted an Epcot location and finally decided that room views were more important than pools so I chose BWV over BCV.

That said...my priorities have shifted and now I am way more into the pool and don't care as much about the room view. That's why I try to stress the importance of getting into DVC in a way that gives you options to get out of DVC if you need to. I bought resale so getting out whole is not a problem. The problem is that I missed my window and prices on BCV contracts have soared. I guess that proves the point that no matter how we try to control things, we really can't. So do your research, make the best decision you can based on the information you have at the moment, and then just sit back and ENJOY YOUR DVC!!!

 

[Minniemoo15]

I am a huge CBR fan so Riveria caught my eye. But we won’t be buying there because of the high dues, terrible resale prospectives, and the high point charts. If I can stay at BCV for less points than Riveria - I’m staying at BCV every time. The gondolas might be cool but walking is even better.

 

[vint43]

high dues, terrible resale prospectives, and the high point charts.

It is always interesting how people view the future so differently.

Here is my prediction (worth nothing of course - I have no particular insight - just showing how people view things differently!).

I believe, in 10 years, Riviera will be reselling for a higher price than BCV and BWV.

Ok, perhaps not a bold prediction, but I think some will still disagree.

Furthermore, people buying resale right now for those resorts (estimate $120- $130 per pt) will lose more than people buying direct at the Riviera today ($167 w/ incentives) based on the net difference in price paid today vs. resale value in 10 years.

Ok, that is more bold!

Why would I think that? Am I nuts? (well, perhaps!) None of us really knows the future. This is just my guess based on how I see the world today.

My belief is based on the fact that the club has little to no experience selling a contract in resale to a mass of people who assume they are now the "last buyer".

This is the buyer that realizes there is not enough time left on the contract for them to use it and still be able to sell it to someone else or give it to their kids / relatives.

So, we need to guess "how they might think" in 10 years. It is a guess. This is mine.

In 10 years, we are down to just 10-12 vacation cycles left on those contracts. If you used the current points before selling and borrowed some points before selling, closer to 10. Still loaded, 12.

I think resale buyers will calculate the value of those remaining cycles very closely.

For instance, if the net difference between renting and MF at that time is still around $10 per point (another guess), for ten years of use, that is only $100 per point of total possible "value" left.

Given the nature of these forums, I suspect a lot of that type of math will start flying around as contracts get shorter.

That is the "break even" vs. just renting points (not even considering the value of the money being invested over those remaining 10 years - which most people who buy resale appear to consider here as well).

How much of a "discount" to renting would I require to make the purchase worth it? $65 per point (35%)? $70 per point(30%)? More?

If true, that is a potential net difference of $65 between the current resale and price and possible future resale price in 10 years based on the remaining value left on those contracts vs. renting.

Under this scenario, if the Riviera, in 10 years, can be sold for over $107, it will be the better performer in terms of resale value.

Will future resale buyers pay $110 to get a single resort with 40 years left (plenty of time to capture more $ value or sell it for something) or $70 for a resort with 10-12 years left that barely beats renting in terms of overall value at that price?

Well, you see my prediction. Loaded this guesses.

So, to me (& just me - everyone else can rightfully think differently), avoiding the Riviera because of potential resale issues and turning around and buying BWV or BCV for $130 per point in resale right now makes no sense (if resale is really your biggest concern).

I think the Riviera, even with the restrictions, will outperform the other Epcot resorts in terms of resale value in 10 years vs. price paid today.

p.s. I reserve the right to be totally wrong.

 

[ELMC]

My belief is based on the fact that the club has little to no experience selling a contract in resale to a mass of people who assume they are now the "last buyer".

This is the buyer that realizes there is not enough time left on the contract for them to use it and still be able to sell it to someone else or give it to their kids / relatives.

This is an interesting point that's been discussed on here for awhile, but I'm not sure I've seen it put so clearly.

So, we need to guess "how they might think" in 10 years. It is a guess. This is mine.

In 10 years, we are down to just 10-12 vacation cycles left on those contracts. If you used the current points before selling and borrowed some points before selling, closer to 10. Still loaded, 12.

I think resale buyers will calculate the value of those remaining cycles very closely.

Probably. But in that case, why aren't the direct buyers at BCV be doing the same thing right now, given that they are paying $235 per point?

So, to me (& just me - everyone else can rightfully think differently), avoiding the Riviera because of potential resale issues and turning around and buying BWV or BCV for $130 per point in resale right now makes no sense (if resale is really your biggest concern).

I think the Riviera, even with the restrictions, will outperform the other Epcot resorts in terms of resale value in 10 years vs. price paid today.

p.s. I reserve the right to be totally wrong.

After reading your arguments (I apologize for deleting part of them and just clipping the parts I wanted to directly comment on) I agree with your math, and would tend to agree with your prediction about the future of Riviera. BUT (and that's a big but) we have absolutely no idea how the restrictions will impact resale prices. While we've seen it in other timeshare systems, we have never seen restrictions like this in DVC. We really have little basis on which to make a prediction.

As an aside, I think the whole business of predicting is sort of funny. Depending on which posts of mine you read I'm either a genius or an idiot. Years ago I said that anyone buying direct SSR at $120 or BLT at $165 were likely to take a loss at any point in time. Genius. I also said the same thing about VGF at $145. Oops.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I'm still in the "No way" camp, but only because of the resale restrictions. This opening price is way lower than I expected seeing that CCV is about to sell out and they've pushed (how many?) resorts over $200 already.

Reality is, I love BWV, but I'm not likely to re-buy it in 2042. I'll be too old. I'd extend but don't believe that will ever happen.

Riviera has the "right" end date and the right price. I could buy here and use as sleep around points for now and know I'd still have my Epcot / DHS resort in 2042.

That being said, incentives start at more points than I need. So (if no resale restrictions) I'd over buy for the incentive, strip and sell. That doesn't work anymore.

Oh well.

Moving on.

Back to needing more BWV points...
and a MK area resort....
or taking my chances on SSR.....
or....

 

[Minniemoo15]

It is always interesting how people view the future so differently.

Here is my prediction (worth nothing of course - I have no particular insight - just showing how people view things differently!).

I believe, in 10 years, Riviera will be reselling for a higher price than BCV and BWV.

Ok, perhaps not a bold prediction, but I think some will still disagree.

Furthermore, people buying resale right now for those resorts (estimate $120- $130 per pt) will lose more than people buying direct at the Riviera today ($167 w/ incentives) based on the net difference in price paid today vs. resale value in 10 years.

Ok, that is more bold!

Why would I think that? Am I nuts? (well, perhaps!) None of us really knows the future. This is just my guess based on how I see the world today.

My belief is based on the fact that the club has little to no experience selling a contract in resale to a mass of people who assume they are now the "last buyer".

This is the buyer that realizes there is not enough time left on the contract for them to use it and still be able to sell it to someone else or give it to their kids / relatives.

So, we need to guess "how they might think" in 10 years. It is a guess. This is mine.

In 10 years, we are down to just 10-12 vacation cycles left on those contracts. If you used the current points before selling and borrowed some points before selling, closer to 10. Still loaded, 12.

I think resale buyers will calculate the value of those remaining cycles very closely.

For instance, if the net difference between renting and MF at that time is still around $10 per point (another guess), for ten years of use, that is only $100 per point of total possible "value" left.

Given the nature of these forums, I suspect a lot of that type of math will start flying around as contracts get shorter.

That is the "break even" vs. just renting points (not even considering the value of the money being invested over those remaining 10 years - which most people who buy resale appear to consider here as well).

How much of a "discount" to renting would I require to make the purchase worth it? $65 per point (35%)? $70 per point(30%)? More?

If true, that is a potential net difference of $65 between the current resale and price and possible future resale price in 10 years based on the remaining value left on those contracts vs. renting.

Under this scenario, if the Riviera, in 10 years, can be sold for over $107, it will be the better performer in terms of resale value.

Will future resale buyers pay $110 to get a single resort with 40 years left (plenty of time to capture more $ value or sell it for something) or $70 for a resort with 10-12 years left that barely beats renting in terms of overall value at that price?

Well, you see my prediction. Loaded this guesses.

So, to me (& just me - everyone else can rightfully think differently), avoiding the Riviera because of potential resale issues and turning around and buying BWV or BCV for $130 per point in resale right now makes no sense (if resale is really your biggest concern).

I think the Riviera, even with the restrictions, will outperform the other Epcot resorts in terms of resale value in 10 years vs. price paid today.

p.s. I reserve the right to be totally wrong.

Fair points !! I’m really interested to see how the restrictions all shake out on the resale market. Perhaps the resort is a slam dunk and resale purchasers are happy to stay there and only there. I agree that BCV prices will likely start to decline in 10 years (they have to at some point?!) and I’ll be glad to swoop in and pick up some points to enjoy a decade at my favourite resort. As it stands now the price is too high and years left are too few for me. So I suppose if I really wanted an Epcot Resort with lots of years remaining I would consider Riveria .. but not before having had the chance to actually stay there. I’d have to really really love it to take a chance on all the unknowns.

 

[bwvBound]

I think this was a major error in creating the points charts. I don't know of many people who think they're getting the same thing in a Pool/Garden view and a Boardwalk view, despite their being the same number of points. Every time I spend 16 points on a Pool View studio I feel like I'm getting gypped as compared to paying 16 points for a Boardwalk view. Is it just me?

100% AGREE

 

[skier_pete]

So - the question of how BWV and BCV trend in the future is a good one. The only thing we know for sure is that in 2042 the value is zero. You can speculate that in 2037 (with 5 years left) the value should in theory be around $25-30 ($5-6 per year plus MF should be a reasonable value) and in 2032 should be probably around $50-60, and in 2027 around $75-90. This is only 7 years from now - if you consider current prices of say $120 at BWV and $160 at BCV, BWV is actually probably pretty close to properly priced, and BCV is overpriced. I do agree in about 10 years you will really see a difference in the short-term expiration prices. I think you are already seeing it at WL-BRV as the prices there are running one of the lowest of any of the resorts. OKW will likely start seeing a great affect soon. BWV and BCV will hold out the longest, but at a point people will not be paying $150 for 15 years.

 

[Bruin_mouse]

So - the question of how BWV and BCV trend in the future is a good one. The only thing we know for sure is that in 2042 the value is zero. You can speculate that in 2037 (with 5 years left) the value should in theory be around $25-30 ($5-6 per year plus MF should be a reasonable value) and in 2032 should be probably around $50-60, and in 2027 around $75-90. This is only 7 years from now - if you consider current prices of say $120 at BWV and $160 at BCV, BWV is actually probably pretty close to properly priced, and BCV is overpriced. I do agree in about 10 years you will really see a difference in the short-term expiration prices. I think you are already seeing it at WL-BRV as the prices there are running one of the lowest of any of the resorts. OKW will likely start seeing a great affect soon. BWV and BCV will hold out the longest, but at a point people will not be paying $150 for 15 years.

Personally I don’t see how they maintain their pricing now that people wanting an Epcot resort have a real alternative (albeit with trade offs). I’m not saying they will go to SSR prices, but if the gondolas are even remotely as effective as Disney is touting, I think resale BCV and BWV will see a real pricing hit sooner rather than later.

 

[Matty B13]

Personally I don’t see how they maintain their pricing now that people wanting an Epcot resort have a real alternative (albeit with trade offs). I’m not saying they will go to SSR prices, but if the gondolas are even remotely as effective as Disney is touting, I think resale BCV and BWV will see a real pricing hit sooner rather than later.

Especially with families in there 20's, 30's, and 40's (somewhat), but the gondolas are going to have to operate flawlessly. The monorails use to run flawlessly as well, but age caught up with that form of transporation.

It also, makes me wonder if this is just Phase 1 of DVC taking over the CB area, seems like a ideal place for selling DVC.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

So - the question of how BWV and BCV trend in the future is a good one. The only thing we know for sure is that in 2042 the value is zero. You can speculate that in 2037 (with 5 years left) the value should in theory be around $25-30 ($5-6 per year plus MF should be a reasonable value) and in 2032 should be probably around $50-60, and in 2027 around $75-90. This is only 7 years from now - if you consider current prices of say $120 at BWV and $160 at BCV, BWV is actually probably pretty close to properly priced, and BCV is overpriced. I do agree in about 10 years you will really see a difference in the short-term expiration prices. I think you are already seeing it at WL-BRV as the prices there are running one of the lowest of any of the resorts. OKW will likely start seeing a great affect soon. BWV and BCV will hold out the longest, but at a point people will not be paying $150 for 15 years.

What do you think rental rates will be in 2027, 2032, and 2037? Dues?

Points are renting for roughly $9 / pt above dues right now. So, I'm going to stay with that constant. I know I'd be willing to save "just a little" to be in control of my own points and reservations. It will also be a great way for renters to give ownership a try. Not a lot of $ and not a lot of risk. At 15 years this could be very attractive to people who figure they will be "done" with Disney by then. They've go littles and figure they'll be shipping them off to college in 15. The other resorts will be approaching the $200 / pt range even resale. Some people just don't have the cash.

I'm gonna go just a little higher......nearly $7/ pt per year on the last 15.....

2027 - $95-$105
2032 - $60-$70
2037 - $30-$35

The hype of SWGE will keep resale high for the next 3 years and it will start to drop off. Riviera will start showing up on resale at a bargain price (with limits).

The question is, will DVC start dropping direct prices? I can't believe they're going to raise prices again. Will people pay?

Maybe we should start a new thread where everyone can give their best guess. Copy and paste mine if someone starts one! lol I want credit if I "win"

 

[Minniesgal]

Never been interested, but at that price point with those point charts and the fact points won't be able to be sold I'm totally disinterested.