Poly DVC expansion coming 2024!

[SLThomas318]

I still think restrictions mean very little to the majority of buyers. Even the well informed buyers here on disboards have had no problem buying Riviera. I still think at the end of the day price and incentives are what sell a resort. It would be interesting to see sales numbers if Riviera and VGF were priced identical (really VGF should be a little cheaper since it has less years left). Will be even more interesting to see Poly tower pricing by the time it comes on-line.

 

[DVCsloth]

The real thing is much more interesting than the Disney bland version IMHO.
View attachment 717411

I don't see Riviera as even remotely close to being bland IMO. I believe it is quite beautiful with an excellent location and some of the nicest rooms at any DVC resort.

 

[Brian Noble]

really VGF should be a little cheaper since it has less years left

I think there are competing factors in comparing VGF with RIV.

VGF is shorter which argues for a lower price. But that six year difference forty years in the future probably has a very low value in the market. As evidence, look at the difference in OKW vs. OKW-e, which provides a natural experiment of the value of extra years that are still relatively far out.

VGF's point chart is a little higher, which also argues for a lower price. But the difference is small. For example, the 1BR premium in formerly-known-as-Magic-Season costs about 4%-6% more at VGF than it does at RIV.

VGF's dues are lower than RIV's, and that argues for a higher price. That gap is narrowing, but VGF dues are still about 14% lower than RIV in 2023.

Finally, VGF can be used in more places on resale, and that argues for a higher price.

When you put it all together, a slight price premium for VGF is at least sensible, though you could argue it the other way if you wanted to.

 

[SLThomas318]

I think there are competing factors in comparing VGF with RIV.

VGF is shorter which argues for a lower price. But that six year difference forty years in the future probably has a very low value in the market. As evidence, look at the difference in OKW vs. OKW-e, which provides a natural experiment of the value of extra years that are still relatively far out.

VGF's point chart is a little higher, which also argues for a lower price. But the difference is small. For example, the 1BR premium in formerly-known-as-Magic-Season costs about 4%-6% more at VGF than it does at RIV.

VGF's dues are lower than RIV's, and that argues for a higher price. That gap is narrowing, but VGF dues are still about 14% lower than RIV in 2023.

Finally, VGF can be used in more places on resale, and that argues for a higher price.

When you put it all together, a slight price premium for VGF is at least sensible, though you could argue it the other way if you wanted to.

I agree there should be a premium for VGF (for all the reasons mentioned). I was just trying to make the point that for most 1st time buyers, it comes down to what resort has the best price. I don't really think they are focusing on the resale restrictions.

 

[matt and beth]

I still think restrictions mean very little to the majority of buyers. Even the well informed buyers here on disboards have had no problem buying Riviera. I still think at the end of the day price and incentives are what sell a resort. It would be interesting to see sales numbers if Riviera and VGF were priced identical (really VGF should be a little cheaper since it has less years left). Will be even more interesting to see Poly tower pricing by the time it comes on-line.

I must be in the minority because I cannot justify a purchase at a restricted resort looking at the current resales for Riviera. Already in the $135 range. Only way I could justify is IF I were in it for the full length of contract and I cannot see that far in the future.

 

[DVCsloth]

I must be in the minority because I cannot justify a purchase at a restricted resort looking at the current resales for Riviera. Already in the $135 range. Only way I could justify is IF I were in it for the full length of contract and I cannot see that far in the future.

I don't think I would purchase Riviera resale as my only contract personally, but I do feel it would be a pretty good deal for someone who wanted to add on some points at a really nice resort at a good price.

 

[Sandisw]

I must be in the minority because I cannot justify a purchase at a restricted resort looking at the current resales for Riviera. Already in the $135 range. Only way I could justify is IF I were in it for the full length of contract and I cannot see that far in the future.

We love RIV and have both direct and resale points there. It is our top resort.

We have never considered resale value in buying so for us, it doesn’t matter because we will hold onto for as long as we want to use it and our adult kids want to.

If we have to sell, we consider anything we get back a bonus because we got value out of it.

It will be interesting thought to see what happens long term with resale value when it’s sold out and ROFR might play a role and if more resorts are restricted.

 

[DVCsloth]

We love RIV and have both direct and resale points there. It is our top resort.

We have never considered resale value in buying so for us, it doesn’t matter because we will hold onto for as long as we want to use it and our adult kids want to.

If we have to sell, we consider anything we get back a bonus because we got value out of it.

It will be interesting thought to see what happens long term with resale value when it’s sold out and ROFR might play a role and if more resorts are restricted.

I think that's a good way to look at it, buy the resort you really want to stay at and don't worry about resale value. Now is probably a good time to consider Riviera resale as long as you are aware of the potential issues with the restrictions. We bought direct recently just because I don't want to deal with any potential issues. Poly Tower will probably be the same issue, definitely on my watchlist for a small add on.

 

[DonMacGregor]

We have never considered resale value in buying so for us, it doesn’t matter because we will hold onto for as long as we want to use it and our adult kids want to.

If we have to sell, we consider anything we get back a bonus because we got value out of it.

I think (at the risk of oversimplifying it) that there are two broadly defined camps with regard to this very matter: those who factor resale value and "exit strategies" heavily when purchasing DVC, and those that don't. Like you, we fall into the latter category.

I've said it before: for me its like buying a car (daily driver, not a vanity or aspirational purchase, of which I may or may not have several, LOL). I buy it to drive it and get use out of it. I know it's depreciating the moment I drive it off the lot, and I know at some point its value will be zero. If, at some point, I decide to sell it and I get a few bucks for it, that's found money. Its value is in the service and functionality it provides, and the use/enjoyment I receive while owning it. I'm not sure I've ever heard of anyone actively tracking the Blue Book value of their car over its lifetime, in anticipation of selling it when it reaches some odometer reading or some age at which the numbers suggest its value is going to drop below some arbitrary point. "Sorry Honey, your Suburban has to go. Based on our exit strategy, it's depreciated to the point we need to sell it."

 

[Genie+]

I agree there should be a premium for VGF (for all the reasons mentioned). I was just trying to make the point that for most 1st time buyers, it comes down to what resort has the best price. I don't really think they are focusing on the resale restrictions.

Yeah most 1st time buyers going direct aren’t planning to sell anytime soon and restrictions don’t apply to them. So resale restrictions end up low on the list of things to consider.

Maybe GFV has a much better resale value than RIV 10-20 years from now because it is unrestricted, but nobody can say for certain. Too many variables including some unknown at this point.

 

[Nabas]

Actually, my hope is that the Poly2 pool is kind of bland with little or no kid appeal, like the Riviera adult pool. That way all the families with children will go to the Poly1 Lava pool.

Based on the artist's rendition, the Poly Tower pool appears it will be something like this:

 

[DaveNan]

Based on the artist's rendition, the Poly Tower pool appears it will be something like this:

View attachment 717721

Oh man!! It is full of kids.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Based on the artist's rendition, the Poly Tower pool appears it will be something like this:

View attachment 717721

All my friends and I! Good times! Actually, it looks fun but kid unfriendly. Perfect!

 

[BamaGuy44]

I don't see Riviera as even remotely close to being bland IMO. I believe it is quite beautiful with an excellent location and some of the nicest rooms at any DVC resort.

Agree 100%. Maybe my tastes just aren't sophisticated but I find the aesthetic clean and elegant, and I love the artwork. Just the right amount of Disney touches without overdoing it.

It's great that we have so many options.

 

[RoseGold]

I still think restrictions mean very little to the majority of buyers. Even the well informed buyers here on disboards have had no problem buying Riviera.

If that were true, RIV wouldn't be half-sold.

I agree that there are many people RIV is a great fit for, they made an informed decision to buy despite the restrictions. I'm not one of them, and the restrictions scared off plenty of buyers.

And lets not act like everyone buying a timeshare at a kiosk is, to use your words, as "informed" as these boards. They have an army of salesmen for a reason.

 

[DVCsloth]

If that were true, RIV wouldn't be half-sold.

I agree that there are many people RIV is a great fit for, they made an informed decision to buy despite the restrictions. I'm not one of them, and the restrictions scared off plenty of buyers.

And lets not act like everyone buying a timeshare at a kiosk is, to use your words, as "informed" as these boards. They have an army of salesmen for a reason.

It looks to me that the resale restrictions will be the norm for new resorts. I added direct at Riviera, and I don't have any restrictions.
Only if someone buys resale, as of right now they can get a pretty good price resale, but it will have restrictions. I also feel that Poly Tower will be the same since it will be a brand-new building. Obviously, no one knows for sure. I was originally in the camp of not buying Riviera because of it, but after staying there and thinking about it we added on and love it. I do understand some people feel differently and that is the beauty of DVC, lots of choices.

 

[BamaGuy44]

If that were true, RIV wouldn't be half-sold.

I agree that there are many people RIV is a great fit for, they made an informed decision to buy despite the restrictions. I'm not one of them, and the restrictions scared off plenty of buyers.

And lets not act like everyone buying a timeshare at a kiosk is, to use your words, as "informed" as these boards. They have an army of salesmen for a reason.

We'll never know how much Covid slowed down sales of RIV so it's hard to judge. In any case There's no doubt the restrictions scare off some buyers. But as you said, plenty of people talking to the army of salesmen have no idea about the restrictions. Even if told about them and they understand what it means down the road, I'd argue most don't buy with an eye toward selling.

Disney aren't dumb, they knew the restrictions would slow down sales to some degree. But they calculated the long term benefits (to them) of the restrictions balanced it out. Has it worked out like they wanted? No way to know, but we'll get a good indication from what they do with the next couple of associations that come on line.

 

[Nabas]

If that were true, RIV wouldn't be half-sold.

Covid is the primary reason RIV is half-sold. Prior to COVID, RIV direct sales were comparable to previous DVC resorts in recent years.

DVC sales took a major hit and has rebounded only recently.

Recent direct sales data for VGF and RIV suggest the resale restrictions are not affecting direct sales.

 

[GoingSince1990]

I expect that the resale restrictions for resorts like RIV will eventually have the effect of drying up the private resale market altogether for those resorts. Because the value of the points to a private resale buyer at such a resort is so much lower than the value to Disney (who can resell the points without restrictions), Disney would have a strong incentive to ROFR every private resale, and in this situation, why would any resale buyer go to all that time and trouble only to have the points taken by Disney? So these resorts would be moving more towards the traditional type of timeshare, where if you ever want out you are at the mercy of the developer, as opposed to the traditionally liquid DVC situation with a thriving private resale market. For me this liquidity was one of the main attractions of DVC, and I would never have considered a traditional timeshare, but people can and do buy traditional non-DVC timeshares, so there are certainly people for whom this is not a concern.

 

[Sandisw]

If that were true, RIV wouldn't be half-sold.

I agree that there are many people RIV is a great fit for, they made an informed decision to buy despite the restrictions. I'm not one of them, and the restrictions scared off plenty of buyers.

And lets not act like everyone buying a timeshare at a kiosk is, to use your words, as "informed" as these boards. They have an army of salesmen for a reason.

How do you figure this? You have 6.7 million points for the resort...its been selling about 3 1/2 years, during which time we had a pandemic.

Based on math and what on the average monthly sales for a resort to sell out, I don't think we are that far off. Even if you only take out the 3 months when sales were not happening, and completely ignore any residual impacts in 2020 from limited travel, RIV's current average is almost $101K a month since sales started.

There is just going to be no way to ever determine the impact of the pandemic on sales. What we do know is that prior to the shut down, the three months from opening to the shut down were some of the highest monthly sales for DVC.

Poly tower, if it comes with restrictions, will be a much better test, assuming we don't have another major event.