Share prices have now found a range which is slightly trending upwards. There is major uncentainty on both sides though.
Why prices may go up?
- Rapid testing is implemented at the US ports, and you start some cruising in a bubble like that in Italy.
- A vaccine candidate reports more results, and you have an emergency approval in late 2020/early 2021.
- RCL and NCL also launch their own limited cruises in Europe or elsewhere to join Carnival and MSC in newsmaking.
- The conversation between the CDC and the cruise lines advance to the next stage.
Why prices may go down?
- US elections in 50 days = general market volatility
- US elections in 50 days = CDC is in no mood to talk and extends the ban
- Flu season/universities/schools bring back a 2.5th US virus wave, and the cases spike up again
- Recent spikes in Europe turn into a full-fledged second wave, shutting down the recently restarted cruises
I think we may have one more pullback in the fall before the vaccine results and testing take over the news. That may be the last opportunity to pick up some shares.
RCL, in particular, has already retraced more than 50% of its fall from the peak. NCLH and CCL just a third or even ess. Not that any of them is going back to those peaks anytime soon.