READ POST 1 & 2 FIRST-Rise of the Resistance Boarding Group Planning and Information-*No Spoilers*

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This doesn’t seem to be a very accurate analysis. Actually seems like surprisingly bad analysis and makes me question just about anything written on that site.

I highly doubt that there are 67% more people in the park (or anywhere near that number) merely as a result of them opening the park tapstiles at 6:10 instead of 6:30. If you figure it takes 15-20 minutes to get the hordes of people that have arrived in line by 6:30 into the park, then anyone who arrives through security by around 6:55 should make it into the park by 7:00 for the BG process. If they open the tapstiles at 6:10 and all else is equal, It’s likely that, once again, anyone through security by 6:55 should get in the park for the BG process.

So, opening the tapstiles at 6:10 vs. 6:30 likely has almost no impact on the number of people in the park at 7:00 BG time. Now it’s possible and even likely that Disney opened the tapstiles early as a response to a larger crowd. But opening the gate early doesn’t create larger crowds in the park at 7:00. More people coming and showing up at the gate by 6:55 creates larger crowds and more competition for BGs.

That’s just bad analysis In that article and reeks of a blogger just writing to fill space.
Exactly
I told them that reasoning was flawed
Opening early does nothing to increase number any significant amount
 
This is exactly my plan, too. Arrive early, hope for the best with BG, rope drop SDD and do MFSR in the evening. We also have tickets for Fantasmic dessert party at 7:00pm so who knows how it will turn out....lol! I'm gonna just roll with it....

We were planning on doing DHS in the am and then head over to Epcot for the PM... had dinner reservations. Now I'm wondering if we should get in as much as we can at DHS, see what BG we can get, head over to Epcot and then head back to DHS for the evening and skip our dinner plans? Ugh, best laid plans.... Thinking the planner in me is going to have to let some of it go and wing it based on crowds, waits and boarding group.
 
No need to apologize, all good.

Touring Plans is generally the most mentioned “crowd calendar” and is what most reference when you see people say “it was a 5 crowd day” or something similar. They are one of the few sites that puts out prediction rankings but then goes back and provides “what they saw” rankings for that day based on actual wait times. Accuracy and reliability of their information is a topic for other threads, but their “1-10” methodology sometimes provides the framework for crowd discussion around places like the DIS.

Anyways, they have your days as 9’s, FWIW (which isn’t surprising given the holiday weekend).

(But my personal opinion, don’t read much into actual numbers or crowd rankings. A good plan always trumps crowd conditions, whatever they turn out to be.)

9! Crikey! Going back to HS on the Thursday but hubby doesn’t want to get up at the crack of dawn for his birthday. So fingers crossed we can do ROTR on the Sunday.
 
Drywall repair? Jeez. I take it some wiring has gone amuck?

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Ugh so do you have to race even to things like TSM now at rope drop? Was hoping for a relatively stress-free morning after (hopefully) snagging a BG.
Racing doesn’t help. The place is packed to the rafters right from opening. There is no getting ahead of it unless you arrive two hours before opening to be at the front of the pack. It sucks.
 
We were planning on doing DHS in the am and then head over to Epcot for the PM... had dinner reservations. Now I'm wondering if we should get in as much as we can at DHS, see what BG we can get, head over to Epcot and then head back to DHS for the evening and skip our dinner plans? Ugh, best laid plans.... Thinking the planner in me is going to have to let some of it go and wing it based on crowds, waits and boarding group.
Yes, I think letting go might be the ticket on the DHS day!
 
I believe they are saying the crowd is held for a few minutes so guests can get BG’s before you can get in any line.
You will probably want to arrive very early to be at the front of that crowd.
We tried to rope drop MFSR on our 2nd HS day and ended up entering 20 minutes before park open/BG frenzy, and could only make it up as far as the turnoff for H&V. The CMs were clear that they would only let GE rope droppers access GE from the very top of Hollywood Blvd. We were not far, yet ... DH walked with the crowd to get in line and we still waited about an hour to ride.

If anyone can do the half marathon and get to DHS before 7 I will REALLY be impressed.
Anyone who does that deserves to get a guaranteed BG.

We found that we just planned our RotR/GE trips as half days. We were lucky enough to get BG of 50 and 62 so rode by lunchtime both times. Then hopped to EP. One day we had EP afternoon FPs, the other day we just went to shows and walked around the WS. Later in the week we had our SDD FPs, and I kind of regretted making them in the late AM. On 12/23, the day it was pouring all morning, AS2 had a 25 minute wait (we did it) but TSMM never had a wait below 60 minutes so we didn't bother. I think theoretically HS could still be a full day park, but it makes a lot more sense to do multiple half days (mornings) to try for RotR and anything else that doesn't have a crazy standby wait. If our kids could stay out late, I'd plan a non-RotR HS evening where I got my HS FPs in the late afternoon or evening, do Fantasmic and the evening shows, and tried to ride MFSR near close, and rope drop a different park that morning with no FPs.
 
They’ve reached BG 88. Need to avg 13/hr over the next 3 1/2 hours to clear all the “guaranteed BGs”. It’s not looking great for those with backups right now BUT they could always hit their stride and make up some ground.
 
There's a very pouty CM that is not loving these last minute extensions :D . Im like, hey look at it this way, it's $13 more dollars
Thanks! It used to be more common, but It’s been many years since I’ve experienced one of these park hour extensions.
 
I'm glad we have hoppers. I was planning a full HS day on the 26th, but if lines get super long right away like they have been, we'll probably hop for a while then come back in the evening. It's so hard to figure out how to approach this thing! LOL.
 
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