ROFR and actual sale prices questioned

[Genie+]

Look at this VGF listed last week -
150pts, Aug UY, and already borrowed almost all of 2023’s points (only 35 pts left until Aug 2024). $175pp

Direct ended up around $15 LESS per point, PLUS it has all 150 of 2023’s points. Not to mention unrestricted points and blue card. Only looking at the math it is still a way better deal than what resale has to offer.

eta - they’d likely balk at a $145pp offer but who in their right mind would pay more right now?

 

[Cfabar1]

Another thing is, YOU, the buyer, have the right to make the offer at ANY price that you choose. And, the broker really should be willing to at least PRESENT your offer to the seller.

I am reasonably sure a broker I used stopped even presenting offers. Yes, they were on the lower side, but still well within the ROFR board (typically around the 2nd lowest price for a similar contract). I no longer use that broker.

By the way, there are many other wonderful sites we cannot mention on here.

 

[NY Pirate Princess]

I felt the same way you did, OP. I was astounded at prices folks here were getting when I started researching my purchase.

I had to balance the idea of the amazing deals the persistent folks on the disboards are able to score with my reality. I wanted to become a dvc member. I wanted to buy 100 points. I wanted to purchase before ROFR started back up.

Could I have scored a better deal? Of course. However, I feel comfortable with the resort and price and I am excited to close.

While maybe one or two people might feel compelled to lie on this message board, I find it far more likely that the disconnect is on the other end.

 

[CarolMN]

I’ve logged the sales, banked points, etc, and gotten an avg per point price. I’ve based my offers on this information and they’ve been rejected through two different resale companies presenting them to their sellers. Just curious how it seems so many people are getting these phenomenal deals (that they are saying the got based on the required information on the post) and the agents I’m submitting through are basically laughing at me saying they’ve never sold one this low in years. Basically someone is lying and I’m just trying to figure out if I’m wasting my time tracking and making offers.

I wonder is the "problem" is using ROFR data to calculate an "average" price. It may not be possible to use that type of data to get a useful average price per point - were dues included? closing costs? Stripped or loaded? Resort and size of contract makes a difference, too, as does the DVD direct price at the time of the sale.

My advice is to look at each contract offered and make your own valuation. Use recent ROFR data for like contracts ( if you can find them) as a starting point.

Good luck.

 

[pianomanzano]

Brokers are hurting compared to last year, especially those that both sell contracts and rent points. The board sponsor on a recent podcast stated they sold $100 million in contracts in 2022. Assuming a 10% commission, they earned $10 million. In their most recent average resale blogpost, you can see prices are down 10% or more, so the lower offers are definitely affecting their bottom line. In that same podcast, the broker mentioned it being ok to offer $1-2/pt below listing, but not much more than that, lol. Same thing happening in the rental market since Disney is slashing prices up to 30-40% off rack rates, brokers can no longer charge $23-26/pt.

They’ll do what they need to do or say what they need to say in order to stop the bleeding. It’s funny how they’ll gladly tell a buyer to go direct when it makes sense (as in the case of VGF), because that’s basically them saying they’re not going to lower prices further. Which to me sounds like they’re waiting for an uninformed buyer to grab one of those contracts thinking they’re getting a steal versus the current direct price of $217/pt.

I’ll also add that the ROFR data I’ve posted in the past is accurate and truthful and I believe everyone else does the same. I don’t think it’s reflective of any average price though, as we tend to be more informed buyers and deal hunters. I also think broker provided average price data is pretty useless as well and you should push back against any broker that tries to tell you offer is too low compared to the average price. No two contracts are the same. Loaded/stripped, small/big contracts are all part of their average price formula. At least with the ROFR threads you have a better idea of the kinds of offers being accepted for the kinds of contracts you’re interested in.

 

[Ruttangel]

I think it can be explained by just Disboarders being more likely to aggressively negotiate due to additional market knowledge.

However, I did see a spectacular deal back in 2020 and was not able to find that on occompt site, so maybe 1 or 2 per year are inaccurate.

 

[Yankee626]

DVC has 4 Resorts they are selling right now and 2 more coming on line in the next 12-18 months. Disney is cash strapped right now and Im thinking they will not be exercising their ROFR for the foreseeable future. They are in cash receiving mode not spending mode. Knowing that I would be offering at least $20 PP less on resale contracts on asking prices.

 

[Twilghtsprkle]

Look at this VGF listed last week -
150pts, Aug UY, and already borrowed almost all of 2023’s points (only 35 pts left until Aug 2024). $175pp

Direct ended up around $15 LESS per point, PLUS it has all 150 of 2023’s points. Not to mention unrestricted points and blue card. Only looking at the math it is still a way better deal than what resale has to offer.

eta - they’d likely balk at a $145pp offer but who in their right mind would pay more right now?

Not to mention how much less time consuming a direct purchase is. We bought resale a few years back. Faxing signed documents, wiring money, and waiting. Took about a month.
Direct VGF. Called Monday afternoon (from this board knew the numbers I should see). Spent a half hour on the phone. Gave a CC to charge. A few short emails later and I had points in my account Tuesday afternoon. Only a little over 24 hours later.

 

[stevehudd]

It is disappointing seeing so many bad deals listed for sale. The stripped contracts are especially egregious. I started offering full pt beach club contracts sat pm at 120 a point. Had 7 counters. Two at 125, one at 129, and four in the high 140s. I took one at 125. So the ROFR data here was accurate in my case.

 

[mkatsy]

I am curious what others are finding regarding ROFR and seller accepted offers. I’ve put in a few offers in the last week at what I’ve considered a little below the average resale posted listings that have passed ROFR. I’ve used/offered through two different companies and the agents have both said that they do not think what is being shared as far as actual closing prices is not accurate. I’m going to assume anyone posting on the quarterly posts are telling the truth. Does anyone have any advice other than offer a higher amount? I realize owners have the option to reject the offer, but if it’s been sitting for months and months, wouldn’t you think eventually they’d sell?

keep in mind, the data on this board is very subjective. Participation is voluntary, and most folks (myself included) are happy when someone gets a good deal because it gives us an idea of what to shoot for in our own contract negotiations. I would suspect that someone that grossly overpaid on a contract is going to feel reluctant to post their data for fear of feeling embarrassed. We don't know how many folks blindly purchase resale at full asking price. So what we see here might be the outliers, rather than the norm.

 

[tom1944]

No, I’ve been watching the Disboards posted forum on offers that have not been taken by ROFR and therefore sold seller to buyer. I’ve logged the sales, banked points, etc, and gotten an avg per point price. I’ve based my offers on this information and they’ve been rejected through two different resale companies presenting them to their sellers. Just curious how it seems so many people are getting these phenomenal deals (that they are saying the got based on the required information on the post) and the agents I’m submitting through are basically laughing at me saying they’ve never sold one this low in years. Basically someone is lying and I’m just trying to figure out if I’m wasting my time tracking and making offers.

I did the same and had multiple BLT bids that were rejected. Several of those contracts ended up selling for less than my offer a few months later.

 

[crisi]

keep in mind, the data on this board is very subjective. Participation is voluntary, and most folks (myself included) are happy when someone gets a good deal because it gives us an idea of what to shoot for in our own contract negotiations. I would suspect that someone that grossly overpaid on a contract is going to feel reluctant to post their data for fear of feeling embarrassed. We don't know how many folks blindly purchase resale at full asking price. So what we see here might be the outliers, rather than the norm.

That was someone's speculation a few years ago - and I think they are right. Our ROFR board probably is skewed really low for two reasons - one, Disboarders are more likely to be more aggressive in offers and two, we are more likely to report a good deal than an average one (or a bad one). As to contracts sitting out there for months - a lot DVCers trying to sell their contracts have little incentive to sell....they can rent until the market gives them the price they think they deserve unless they need the capital in hand quickly. (Something I've realized as I've moved from my early thirties to my mid-50s - a DVC sale is much less capital to me than it was back then, and 20 years of acquiring financial assets has given me better places to pull cash out of faster.) Brokers are supposed to present any reasonable offer, but buyers can say "I won't consider anything less than $XXX, don't bother to bring it to me" - something I suspect a lot of buyers do after the first lowball offer wastes their time.

If you want a bargain, it may take a while and you'll hear no a lot. That may impact your ability to use your points when you want for the first trip, negating the savings of the bargain. But if you have the time, the bargains are out there.

 

[crisi]

The other thing to keep in mind when looking at ROFR is that reporting is delayed by about a month from offer acceptance when Disney is using its full 30 days. In periods where DVC price is trending upwards or downwards quickly, it will take the thread a bit to catch up with the reality of pricing.

 

[Wyldstyle77]

Just keep trying. All it takes is one seller to accept. I look at the DVC aggregator daily and right now there are 122 listings that fit my parameters. So I only need one, maybe two or three buyers, to say yes. Out of 122.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I am curious what others are finding regarding ROFR and seller accepted offers. I’ve put in a few offers in the last week at what I’ve considered a little below the average resale posted listings that have passed ROFR. I’ve used/offered through two different companies and the agents have both said that they do not think what is being shared as far as actual closing prices is not accurate. I’m going to assume anyone posting on the quarterly posts are telling the truth. Does anyone have any advice other than offer a higher amount? I realize owners have the option to reject the offer, but if it’s been sitting for months and months, wouldn’t you think eventually they’d sell?

Use fidelity or dvc store. We paid under list price every time on resale and passed rofr.

 

[karen4546]

I wonder is the "problem" is using ROFR data to calculate an "average" price. It may not be possible to use that type of data to get a useful average price per point - were dues included? closing costs? Stripped or loaded? Resort and size of contract makes a difference, too, as does the DVD direct price at the time of the sale.

My advice is to look at each contract offered and make your own valuation. Use recent ROFR data for like contracts ( if you can find them) as a starting point.

Good luck.

on the ROFR thread dues and closing are included in the posts. there is a formula they have to type in the information.

 

[bravo2zero]

With regard to whether the information is accurate in this thread or not, others have very good points. Just remember motivation:

Other than attempting to stroke their own ego (and maybe now make the list of the 10 best deals on the dvcrofr.com page?), posters have little motivation to post inaccurate info. I don't know anyone on this board personally, so I can't expect a pat on the back from them about my "great deal". It is anonymous, what do I have to gain by lying? Further, this process is socially complex; we have to trust each other to post accurate info from which we ourselves benefit and we in turn provide trustworthy information to ensure that the benefit remains for us in the future when addonitis inevitably strikes. Accuracy helps us stop from wasting our own time and benefits us through reduced information asymmetry.

For brokers, their motivation is commission. By discrediting information as inaccurate or incomplete, they can benefit financially significantly.

Which one of those motivations is stronger?

As others note, there is no doubt that the information on the ROFR thread is biased to the lower prices. It represents buyers who are well above average in the degree to which they are informed and are likely seeking deals. It also, as others note, represents the better deals as those well above average may not want to share (I would also argue that those well above average deals are more likely to just be less well informed buyers). It doesn't mean that the information is either invalid or inaccurate, it just means that the average on the ROFR tab is undoubtedly well below average, and that an average deal on the ROFR thread is still a pretty darn good deal.

 

[Wyldstyle77]

With regard to whether the information is accurate in this thread or not, others have very good points. Just remember motivation:

Other than attempting to stroke their own ego (and maybe now make the list of the 10 best deals on the dvcrofr.com page?), posters have little motivation to post inaccurate info. I don't know anyone on this board personally, so I can't expect a pat on the back from them about my "great deal". It is anonymous, what do I have to gain by lying? Further, this process is socially complex; we have to trust each other to post accurate info from which we ourselves benefit and we in turn provide trustworthy information to ensure that the benefit remains for us in the future when addonitis inevitably strikes. Accuracy helps us stop from wasting our own time and benefits us through reduced information asymmetry.

For brokers, their motivation is commission. By discrediting information as inaccurate or incomplete, they can benefit financially significantly.

Which one of those motivations is stronger?

As others note, there is no doubt that the information on the ROFR thread is biased to the lower prices. It represents buyers who are well above average in the degree to which they are informed and are likely seeking deals. It also, as others note, represents the better deals as those well above average may not want to share (I would also argue that those well above average deals are more likely to just be less well informed buyers). It doesn't mean that the information is either invalid or inaccurate, it just means that the average on the ROFR tab is undoubtedly well below average, and that an average deal on the ROFR thread is still a pretty darn good deal.

Right???? What is the motivation to lie on here outside of a thumbs up or star eyed emoji ? Their motivation to lie is money.

 

[Nursemanit]

I will offer this - both could be true.
Agents can lie and I have “caught” a fib on the ROFR by looking at months of sold contracts 60 days later - none were near the “deal” the person claimed.

 

[bravo2zero]

Right???? What is the motivation to lie on here outside of a thumbs up or star eyed emoji ? Their motivation to lie is money.

I don't have the ability to write with your succinctness, but obviously we are aligned.