So it appears the crowds are very high right now even though some sites predicted low crowds. Is there a reason why the uptick?

[Wakey]

They used to use red cards that were handed to guests in the standby line. The card was scanned by a CM and handed to a quest who was told to give it to the last CM they saw before boarding the ride. The receiving CM would scan it and it would calculate the wait time and update the sign, with a built in buffer determined by the attraction manager that day. The manager is also able to change the time to whatever they choose, so at night, they can set a 50 minute wait even if it’s a walk on. I don’t believe they still use the red cards (known as FLiK cards) at WDW anymore, just DL. I think now it’s tracked by MagicBands.

I was given one in 2019 last I think.

 

[lentesta]

That's really interesting. Totally appreciate the work that you all do.

That does make think of something I've always vaguely wondered about, how does Disney actually figure out the waits in the line? Do you have any idea on that? Do they have a cast member who is working who is actually watch the lines and update them on a regular basis, cuz they do get changed on the regular, even if they are sometimes wildly off lol

There are a few ways:

1) They look at how long the line is and make a guess. (I think this is what most theme park operators do.) So they know if the line is 500 feet long, you get 1 person every 2 feet, that's 250 people. And if you know the ride's hourly capacity (say, 1000 people), then the line is 60 minutes x 250 people / 1000 people per minute = 15 minutes long.

There are lots of visual cues in a line, like "Up to the first switchback", "Up to the ramp", and so on, where the distance to the front of the line has been known for years.

Disney used to check this method by handing out those red credit-card-like "Flik" cards to guests getting in line.

2) Disney tried using RFID sensors in the lines, reading MagicBands, to determine how long the wait was. I was told this did not work well for a variety of reasons. The end result was something like "The Jungle Cruise sensors think everyone at Magic Carpets of Aladdin is in line for Jungle Cruise too."

3) Cameras with body recognition, placed in spots where large swaths of line are visible. I'm pretty sure UOR is in some phase of implemenation with this, but I don't know how far they've got.

 

[asc]

Just a few observations but today and yesterday were pretty light IMO. Not sure what stats are but many walk ons of majors at epcot, HS, AK and MK. Epcot was especially quiet after 6 both days on rides. World showcase a little busier. A few times Millennium Falcon was 20 minutes and the wait to the merge line was less than 10 minutes.

 

[CoasterGT24]

Just a few observations but today and yesterday were pretty light IMO. Not sure what stats are but many walk ons of majors at epcot, HS, AK and MK. Epcot was especially quiet after 6 both days on rides. World showcase a little busier. A few times Millennium Falcon was 20 minutes and the wait to the merge line was less than 10 minutes.

Wait times yesterday were quite a bit lower than Wednesdays over the summer according to https://www.thrill-data.com/waits/chain/wdw/

 

[Minnie1222]

Just a few observations but today and yesterday were pretty light IMO. Not sure what stats are but many walk ons of majors at epcot, HS, AK and MK. Epcot was especially quiet after 6 both days on rides. World showcase a little busier. A few times Millennium Falcon was 20 minutes and the wait to the merge line was less than 10 minutes.

The week following Labor Day typically has the lowest attendance. I remember going around this time 20 years ago and the parks were eerily quiet. Every ride was a walk-on. I've been wanting to go during this particular week in the past 20 years, but something always prevented me from going. Maybe next year .

 

[asc]

Wait times yesterday were quite a bit lower than Wednesdays over the summer according to https://www.thrill-data.com/waits/chain/wdw/

Thanks. I also notoced they were filming on and off at slinky and so they had artificially high waits of 130 to 140 minutes and they said the ride went down when actually they closed it for filming.

 

[twodogs]

If you look at what Disney has been saying about the parks this summer they have had the fewest visitors in ten years.

This may be true. But I think they have so much data, and real-time, day to day data, that they now adjust staffing to be at the minimum for their projected load of guests. This would make the walkways feel potentially not crowded, while long ride waits exist. Breakdowns of rides makes it even worse. I think Disney has done away with the "surprise, it's not crowded and all of the rides have short wait" days by paring down the staffing to the minimum. Staff likely represents one of their biggest expenses, so controlling it is a top priority.

 

[marshallabney]

This may be true. But I think they have so much data, and real-time, day to day data, that they now adjust staffing to be at the minimum for their projected load of guests. This would make the walkways feel potentially not crowded, while long ride waits exist. Breakdowns of rides makes it even worse. I think Disney has done away with the "surprise, it's not crowded and all of the rides have short wait" days by paring down the staffing to the minimum. Staff likely represents one of their biggest expenses, so controlling it is a top priority.

This is anecdotal and I get that no two experiences are the same, ymmv, but the past 4 days we’ve found everything to be adequately staffed, wait times very low, and breakdowns minimal (for us anyway). Strategy for which parks to attend which days makes a huge difference, for example we hopped to MK on Saturday evening for just a couple of hours (non-party day) and found it incredibly crowded. Ghost town the next morning with extremely low waits (party day) until 1 when we hopped. Staffing seems to be on par with trips over the past 8 years. I’m sure data analytics has improved for Disney and they aren’t overstaffed as much, as with most companies, but I’m not seeing understaffing. Again, ymmv.

 

[zavandor]

I'll say that from our perspective, which uses Disney's posted wait times at key attractions to measure crowds, one of the big issues we face is that posted wait times are often far from accurate.

That mean that part of making crowd calendar predictions is trying to guess how 'wrong' the posted wait times are.

For example, here's Seven Dwarfs Mine Train from yesterday (8/31). Black dots are Disney's posted wait times in MDE. Green dots are actual wait times as submitted by guests and our staff.

View attachment 789962

So at 9 a.m., the actual wait for 7DMT was 5 minutes and the MDE said it was 50.

Likewise, at 10 a.m. the actual wait was 28 minutes and the posted was 45.

The posted wait times were off by a factor of roughly 2 to 10. It's really hard to model crowds with that kind of error.

The other, and I think larger, issue is that incorrect posted wait times harm guests directly. When you don't know how long something is going to take, you can't make good decisions about where to spend your time.

I'm sure that scores of guests walked up to 7DMT at 9 a.m., saw the 50 minute posted wait, and went somewhere else. If they had more accurate information, they would've enjoyed very low waits at a very popular attraction.

I've been in MK on non party days when almost everything else was a walk on all day and 7DMT at 9 still had the line full and overflow line in use. The only chance someone waited 5 minutes at 9 is that they measured ILL.

BTW, until last year MK used to open At 8 on party days, this year they stuck with 9am, making rope drop worse.

I’m convinced Genie+ has made the parks seem busier with less people per day. The extra morning hours were definitely busier last time I went as huge amounts of people raced in to try and beat those hated ILL lines. Then the app encourages you to stay longer waiting for rides to come up.
We used to get in at rope drop, do a few rides, then our Fastpasses kicked in, we would do those, maybe get a few more, and normally leave shortly after lunch if not before. This is not possible to do now, and with Genie you want to hang around to get as many rides as possible as well as youve paid for it.
in short, Genie messed up the park dynamic.

I had the same experience as you, I've been in MK 9/2-15 and I've never waited in a longish line when they were loading only half side.
I only saw Pirates and BTMRR load on one side at rope drop, when they were walk-on anyway.
It's different at Universal, they have reduced staffing quite a bit, causing some wait even if the parks are not busy.

 

[raidermatt]

I've been in MK on non party days when almost everything else was a walk on all day and 7DMT at 9 still had the line full and overflow line in use. The only chance someone waited 5 minutes at 9 is that they measured ILL.

Definitely not the only chance. I have seen days as you describe. I have also seen days, non-party days, where 5 minutes just after 9am was a reality.

 

[scrappinginontario]

Definitely not the only chance. I have seen days as you describe. I have also seen days, non-party days, where 5 minutes just after 9am was a reality.

Although you may have experienced this, SDMT being a 5 min wait at 9AM would be an extremely rare occurrence any day of the year.

At 9AM ETPE guests have been in the park for at least 30 mins and the park is always open to all guests. Traditionally SDMT is an attraction many head to first so the line is very rarely 5 mins except at park close.

 

[zavandor]

Definitely not the only chance. I have seen days as you describe. I have also seen days, non-party days, where 5 minutes just after 9am was a reality.

Non party days are way more crowded than party days.
Another chance is that the attraction was closed at opening and reopened right in front of that guest. But all those are statistical anomalies and as such should be ignored for touring strategy.
No plan would made sense to suggest to go to 7DMT at 9am.

 

[Flacolan]

Hi,
Just a quick question, is today (sept. 25th) a holiday or a special occasion?
MK seems way overcrowded for a Monday in September.

Thanks

 

[lanejudy]

It's Yom Kippur, though I don't know if that typically equates to larger MK crowds.

 

[DeeBee3]

Would agree with above. Schools are closed.

 

[DisneyFan32WI]

It has been insane since I arrived on Friday. Even Spaceship Earth and Living With the Land had a 40 minute wait yesterday!
I was at the Halloween party last night and haunted mansion was 45 minutes until the very end!!
The great news is that I used Genie+ for my park days and the weather has been perfect

 

[reddog21]

Would agree with above. Schools are closed.

What schools close for Yom Kippur??

 

[Smugpugmug]

What schools close for Yom Kippur??

I went to high school in an area of NJ with a large Jewish population and we had off for Yom Kippur. I bet it's a similar situation in other areas.

Where I live now (MD), schools are still open.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

New Jersey has an entire random week off from school, but I think that is in Novmenber

 

[reddog21]

I went to high school in an area of NJ with a large Jewish population and we had off for Yom Kippur. I bet it's a similar situation in other areas.

Where I live now (MD), schools are still open.

interesting? Just out of pure curiosity I did a search and someone actually put together a map of which schools have it off.