The Rumor Tracking Thread

[rteetz]

Makes complete sense. Why open more hotels if you can’t fill the ones that are already open.

I’d love to know what bookings look like for say August and September.

 

[skeeter31]

I’d love to know what bookings look like for say August and September.

Just doing a quick look on the WDW site trying to book rooms, the DVCs all have availability for most of August and September to pay cash for studios and 1 bedrooms. The real shocker was Contemporary has Theme Park/main building view rooms available for basically the entire 2 months. I very rarely see that room type available when looking to book Contemporary. Usually it’s just garden wing rooms.

I‘m guessing people that need to use their points and can’t bank them are going to go and the villas will be pretty full. But I do really wonder what the cash bookings are looking like.

 

[rteetz]

Just doing a quick look on the WDW site trying to book rooms, the DVCs all have availability for most of August and September to pay cash for studios and 1 bedrooms. The real shocker was Contemporary has Theme Park/main building view rooms available for basically the entire 2 months. I very rarely see that room type available when looking to book Contemporary. Usually it’s just garden wing rooms.

I‘m guessing people that need to use their points and can’t bank them are going to go and the villas will be pretty full. But I do really wonder what the cash bookings are looking like.

Right, I’m more or less wondering how the compare. So are booking increasing as time goes on or are they the same. Obviously more hotels open as time goes on so one would think more people would be coming but we don’t know that for sure.

 

[CastAStone]

Just doing a quick look on the WDW site trying to book rooms, the DVCs all have availability for most of August and September to pay cash for studios and 1 bedrooms. The real shocker was Contemporary has Theme Park/main building view rooms available for basically the entire 2 months. I very rarely see that room type available when looking to book Contemporary. Usually it’s just garden wing rooms.

I‘m guessing people that need to use their points and can’t bank them are going to go and the villas will be pretty full. But I do really wonder what the cash bookings are looking like.

Reports from the DVC resorts though are that they are barren. You can book almost all the hardest to book DVC rooms for next week right now with points - AKL Value studios, Beach Club studios, Bay Lake Tower Standard View studios, etc. People aren’t using their points. They’re trying to rent them but to no avail. The 2nd largest DVC rental agency has 1600 confirmed reservations posted for rent right now. They usually have about 12. 2018 banked points are going to expire and that’s that, people aren’t going to go if they don’t feel safe flying or if they have to serve a month in quarantine.

 

[Jrb1979]

Reports from the DVC resorts though are that they are barren. You can book almost all the hardest to book DVC rooms for next week right now with points - AKL Value studios, Beach Club studios, Bay Lake Tower Standard View studios, etc. People aren’t using their points. They’re trying to rent them but to no avail. The 2nd largest DVC rental agency has 1600 confirmed reservations posted for rent right now. They usually have about 12. 2018 banked points are going to expire and that’s that, people aren’t going to go if they don’t feel safe flying or if they have to serve a month in quarantine.

Its really not surprising. Even some local parks are resuming their being a friend deals. All parks are hurting for guests. I wouldn't be surprised when Disney closed some parks on certain days. Not enough people are interested in going right now

 

[Tom_E_D]

Makes complete sense. Why open more hotels if you can’t fill the ones that are already open.

It may very well be that there are now more resorts scheduled to open than Disney has guests for. However, I would like to say that Disney should not be filling the open resorts before reopening more. The resort restaurants are reduced to a fraction of prior capacity due to social distancing rules. I don't know the fraction, but let's say it's half. If the resort's rooms are then more than half filled, it'll cause backups to use those restaurants during the busy times of the day. That's not good for social distancing. Similarly, a full resort would mean longer lines of people waiting at the bus stops, etc. Disney, if it is at all serious about health protocols, would be better off running two resorts at less than half capacity than one at close to full capacity.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

It may very well be that there are now more resorts scheduled to open than Disney has guests for. However, I would like to say that Disney should not be filling the open resorts before reopening more. The resort restaurants are reduced to a fraction of prior capacity due to social distancing rules. I don't know the fraction, but let's say it's half. If the resort's rooms are then more than half filled, it'll cause backups to use those restaurants during the busy times of the day. That's not good for social distancing. Similarly, a full resort would mean longer lines of people waiting at the bus stops, etc. Disney, if it is at all serious about health protocols, would be better off running two resorts at less than half capacity than one at close to full capacity.

Has it been reported any issues getting in to resort restaurants?

I can see this potentially being an issue - especially with the early park closing times, just hasn't seen it reported anywhere yet.

I do get the idea they should be ahead of the crowds so if it appears crowd levels are ticking up they should scale up number of available rooms before it gets to be an issue

 

[Tom_E_D]

Has it been reported any issues getting in to resort restaurants?

I can see this potentially being an issue - especially with the early park closing times, just hasn't seen it reported anywhere yet.

I do get the idea they should be ahead of the crowds so if it appears crowd levels are ticking up they should scale up number of available rooms before it gets to be an issue

I haven't seen any reports about what the resort restaurants have been like since reopening. My point in my prior post was that Disney should open Art of Animation, for example, before they should fill all of Pop Century, including the 80s and 90s buildings. The extra space in common areas (restaurants, bus stops, pools) is needed for social distancing. Of course, if the few already-open resorts aren't even being half-filled, then they may wish to delay opening some of the others that are scheduled to open this fall.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I haven't seen any reports about what the resort restaurants have been like since reopening. My point in my prior post was that Disney should open Art of Animation, for example, before they should fill all of Pop Century, including the 80s and 90s buildings. The extra space in common areas (restaurants, bus stops, pools) is needed for social distancing. Of course, if the few already-open resorts aren't even being half-filled, then they may wish to delay opening some of the others that are scheduled to open this fall.

Ok, I may have misunderstood your initial post - I think we are on the same page

 

[Runnsally]

Goes back to what Chapek said on the last earnings call about only keeping parks and resorts open if they generate more revenue than expense. Having most/all resorts open at low occupancy to maximize social distancing isn’t going to happen. Similarly, If attendance stays low, wonky park closure schedules to funnel capacity seem inevitable. Wouldn’t be surprised if they shut the whole thing down again and use the rising case numbers (not the actual revenue issues) as a scapegoat.

 

[gottalovepluto]

Goes back to what Chapek said on the last earnings call about only keeping parks and resorts open if they generate more revenue than expense. Having most/all resorts open at low occupancy to maximize social distancing isn’t going to happen. Similarly, If attendance stays low, wonky park closure schedules to funnel capacity seem inevitable. Wouldn’t be surprised if they shut the whole thing down again and use the rising case numbers (not the actual revenue issues) as a scapegoat.

Chapek says a lot to make investors feel good. I put very little stock into what he says personally.

I would be shocked if they shut the whole thing down again unless forced to. The cost in having to donate all food, merchandise backups in the supply line, re-staffing, deep cleaning, re-stocking food... the list goes on. Shutting down and re-opening could result in bigger loses than staying open at low capacity.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Chapek says a lot to make investors feel good. I put very little stock into what he says personally.

I would be shocked if they shut the whole thing down again unless forced to. The cost in having to donate all food, merchandise backups in the supply line, re-staffing, deep cleaning, re-stocking food... the list goes on. Shutting down and re-opening could result in bigger loses than staying open at low capacity.

I agree - only other scenario I can see it gets soooo bad and PR is soooo bad but if they do the parks will be closed for a long time I til there is a completely different narrative

Just the cost of closing just to reopen I'm a few months is too high vs just cutting capacity a bit and keeping it open

 

[Runnsally]

I agree - only other scenario I can see it gets soooo bad and PR is soooo bad but if they do the parks will be closed for a long time I til there is a completely different narrative

Just the cost of closing just to reopen I'm a few months is too high vs just cutting capacity a bit and keeping it open

Do you/others think the balance sheet for WDW parks and resorts is less negative with the current operation than it was when the parks were closed (NBA excluded)? If not, I suppose the ramp up period is hopefully a means to an end.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Do you/others think the balance sheet for WDW parks and resorts is less negative with the current operation than it was when the parks were closed (NBA excluded)? If not, I suppose the ramp up period is hopefully a means to an end.

I don't know - I would think yes, less negative when factoring what they are making I'm hotels stays and parking and food (with few options, lower costs)

Maybe not going as well as they hoped but still "less negative"

And if they were to close you have to factor in all the costs of closing down and then restarting again into the decision as well

 

[Runnsally]

I don't know - I would think yes, less negative when factoring what they are making I'm hotels stays and parking and food (with few options, lower costs)

Maybe not going as well as they hoped but still "less negative"

And if they were to close you have to factor in all the costs of closing down and then restarting again into the decision as well

I bet it’s currently close to a wash and might even break a bit negative but they’re taking the moderate to long view to win consumer confidence, grow future booking, etc.

 

[Brianstl]

I don't know - I would think yes, less negative when factoring what they are making I'm hotels stays and parking and food (with few options, lower costs)

Maybe not going as well as they hoped but still "less negative"

And if they were to close you have to factor in all the costs of closing down and then restarting again into the decision as well

There is, also, a big PR impact if they close down again. A narrative will be created that Disney knew they shouldn’t open up and did it any. That will be used against them when they open again. People will say you couldn’t trust Disney last time and you can’t trust them this time.

The only way Disney shuts down again is if the government shuts them down.

 

[CastAStone]

I bet it’s currently close to a wash and might even break a bit negative but they’re taking the moderate to long view to win consumer confidence, grow future booking, etc.

This feels right. I think the intent was to lose less money than being closed, but it’s clear to me from everything from the reservation calendar for the parks to DVC availability to their resort opening schedule, which now looks really aggressive, that they were expecting much higher attendance. Which means about that attendance, they’re probably below their threshold. That’s why it wouldn’t surprise me to see one or more parks go to five day a week operation.

I would be shocked if they reopen AoA on August 12 and Yacht Club on August 24. Beach and Poly, maybe due to the attached DVCs, but with current attendance levels being what they are, I don’t know why they would open more rooms than they need to. CBR will already be adding 1500+ rooms to a half-empty system this week.

 

[Tom_E_D]

This feels right. I think the intent was to lose less money than being closed, but it’s clear to me from everything from the reservation calendar for the parks to DVC availability to their resort opening schedule, which now looks really aggressive, that they were expecting much higher attendance. Which means about that attendance, they’re probably below their threshold. That’s why it wouldn’t surprise me to see one or more parks go to five day a week operation.

I would be shocked if they reopen AoA on August 12 and Yacht Club on August 24. Beach and Poly, maybe due to the attached DVCs, but with current attendance levels being what they are, I don’t know why they would open more rooms than they need to. CBR will already be adding 1500+ rooms to a half-empty system this week.

Nice bit of forecasting. You were wrong about YC, but AoA, BC and Poly were all delayed.

 

[Vern60]

Nice bit of forecasting. You were wrong about YC, but AoA, BC and Poly were all delayed.

I'm most definitely not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but it didn't take me too terribly long to learn to value CastAStone's opinions, (well, most of time, hehe)

 

[CastAStone]

I'm most definitely not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but it didn't take me too terribly long to learn to value CastAStone's opinions, (well, most of time, hehe)

Most of the time is probably too much but I appreciate it.