Very Interesting DVC Rumors

[pilferk]

Nothing of interest to me. I don't think I will extend my OKW since I will be 82 when it dies LOL!

On an unrelated note, am I the only person bothered by the "lifting" of a post from another board? It wasn't a link or a paraphrase, but a wholesale copy..... (Especially since I have a very strong thought that this person may have once posted here.... Hmmm. Tony?)

It's exactly the person you're thinking of, on a site that is not allowed to be named (thus the *'s). Greenban (aka Tony) has said (though not on THIS post, I don't think) he doesn't mind his posts being transplanted to other sites he's been banned from.

What the mods would prefer is up to them.

 

[pilferk]

FYI, from further info (same source as OP):

It sounds like there will be an OKW Board VOTE on Sept 24th to approve an offer of extension.

Once that is approved, THEN they'll design the extension options, etc.

There's some mention of restriction on extension of resale contracts, but I'm not clear what's meant by that, exactly. I'm not sure if they mean FUTURE resold contracts (after the extension is announced) or ones currently aquired via resale. Anyway, the restriction mentioned is adding on an admin fee to get the contract extended.

 

[CarolA]

Hey All!

I'm suprised that no one has commented on the 'end' of the developer points bonus.

CarolA:

I hear your concerns, which is why I made it clear in the original post, the source of my quote. I don't see it any different than posters who quote stories from Orlando News websites, or other 'Mainstream Disney Boards' such as www.mousesavers.com and www.allears.net.

However, I don't know all the rules here yet, and if I posted against rules, then hopefully the Moderators will remove the post and gently correct me.

I can't get search to work for me at all, but at the ****** out website this guy's handle is greenbeanned and he does sign his posts as Tony, so it may infact be who you are referring to.

I don't think you did anything against the rules. I guess this is just a risk of posting on an internet.

I did find the Original Post and my guess was right. Something tells me he probably would be flattered!

 

[spiceycat]

My completely unfounded guess is somewhere between $25 and $35 ppt.

Why?

Current DVC price per point: $104

104/50: $2.08

$2.08 * 15 years = $31.20.

We'll see how accurate that guess is if this comes to pass.

that is too expensive for me. So I guess I won't do it.

that would be $7,504 for me

considering that I paid $14,062.50 for my 240 points. that is more than half the value for only 15 years.

so still waiting for CRV.

 

[nuts]

Am I allowed to ask why he was banned?

 

[spiceycat]

they won't tell us. Maybe jealous - he definitely have some good contacts in the DVC.

of course Disney can get mad at pre-leased information getting to us. So maybe that was it.

 

[pilferk]

that is too expensive for me. So I guess I won't do it.

that would be $7,504 for me

considering that I paid $14,062.50 for my 240 points. that is more than half the value for only 15 years.

so still waiting for CRV.

It's pricey, but that's pretty much what Disney is charging now for 15 years worth of 240 points.

Now, I could be way off...they could go $5 to $10 ppt cheaper BECAUSE it's simply an extension, with little to no capital outlay (building a new facility,etc). I can certainly see reasoning behind that kind of difference in my "guess"...but based on the numbers we have, I'm thinking somewhere AROUND the number I first postulated.

We'll see...it'll be interesting, AND it sort of answers the question "What will happen in 2042".

Anyone know what DISNEY is charging, currently, per point for OKW? An alternate theory is that they'll charge the "difference" between the current price per point for OKW and the current "new" DVC retail price ($104 per pt).

 

[Sammie]

of course Disney can get mad at pre-leased information getting to us. So maybe that was it.

Disney does not get upset about rumors. And until it is official, it is rumor.

 

[CarolA]

So what happens to BW, BC and VWL?

 

[pilferk]

So what happens to BW, BC and VWL?

The speculation is they'll wait and see how OKW goes, and then make decisions on those resorts, case by case.

So, in essence: Who knows?

The only reason I can see Disney doing it a bit different is that those facilities are all attached to a hotel...OKW obviously is not. So they MAY weigh the value of putting the DVC rooms into hotel service vs offering an extension to owners...or rather, weigh that factor a bit more heavily than with OKW.

I think if OKW does it, and it's successful, that the other '42 resorts will follow. But we'll see.

 

[Sammie]

we would not be interested in any extensions.

With the present management of DVC being so focused on sales and expansion and less about exisiting problems and concerns of current members, I seriously doubt we will even keep ours until the orginial expiration.

 

[Sammie]

double posting, I am having trouble lately with this, sorry.

 

[pilferk]

we would not be interested in any extensions.

With the present management of DVC being so focused on sales and expansion and less about exisiting problems and concerns of current members, I seriously doubt we will even keep ours until the orginial expiration.

From a new member, I'm wondering, exactly, what you're thinking of when you say "existing problems and concerns of current members".

Anything specific you'd be willing to share?

 

[salmoneous]

My completely unfounded guess is somewhere between $25 and $35 ppt.

Why?

Current DVC price per point: $104

104/50: $2.08

$2.08 * 15 years = $31.20.

We'll see how accurate that guess is if this comes to pass.

There are two questions - what's a fair price, and what will Disney charge (assuming it happens).

For "fair price," you can't just take the current per/point cost and apply it to the extension. There's a world of difference between paying for points you can begin to use now, and paying for points you can't start to use for 35 years.

One thing to look at is how the market currently values extra years. We can get a crude feel for that by looking at current resale prices for OKW vs SSR. SSR prices are about $5/point more. That's a 12-year difference, so figure $6/point for 15 years. It's not a perfect comparison, but the resorts are similar enough to suggest that $6/point is in the right ballpark (as opposed to $25-35/point).

Of course, that doesn't mean Disney won't ask for $25/point. It's their first offer - why not shoot for the moon. If people don't bite, you can always lower the price later.

 

[pilferk]

There are two questions - what's a fair price, and what will Disney charge (assuming it happens).

For "fair price," you can't just take the current per/point cost and apply it to the extension. There's a world of difference between paying for points you can begin to use now, and paying for points you can't start to use for 35 years.

One thing to look at is how the market currently values extra years. We can get a crude feel for that by looking at current resale prices for OKW vs SSR. SSR prices are about $5/point more. That's a 12-year difference, so figure $6/point for 15 years. It's not a perfect comparison, but the resorts are similar enough to suggest that $6/point is in the right ballpark (as opposed to $25-35/point).

Of course, that doesn't mean Disney won't ask for $25/point. It's their first offer - why not shoot for the moon. If people don't bite, you can always lower the price later.

I see the point, but...

You're not paying now for points you can use in 35 years...or not any more than you're doing the same thing for a current DVC contract when you pay $104 per point (or $96 with discount) to get 50 years worth of points. Since you have to OWN a OKW contact now...you're simply extending the life of that contract, not paying for one you can ONLY use 35 years from now. I don't see much of any difference, fiscally speaking.

Now, I acknowledged (in a later post) I CAN see them charging less because, quite frankly, there's no capital to put up to build a new facility and infrastructure. Given that, you're probably right...you can't compare the current price (which takes into account construction costs) and use it to "figure" an extension price.

I do see the point about resale prices, but....quite frankly, I doubt Disney will. I'm not sure I think $6 per point is fair (maybe double to triple that), but I do know expecting it to be that low is probably not realistic.

Again, all this is guesswork...and I'll stand by my prediction: $25 to $35 per point. We'll have to see how far off I am if this comes to pass.

 

[Dis13]

There's no way I'd pay $25 - $30 per point. I paid approx. $80 via resale last year. That would make my total price per point $105-$110. Maybe it would be worth it for those who have owned since the beginning, but I couldn't justify it.

Now an additional $5/$10 - I may consider keeping my OKW points AND adding on at CRV

 

[MickeyCrazed]

Am I allowed to ask why he was banned?

I don't know why he was banned...

Someone may PM you with that information, however, I don't think the Moderators appreciate open discussion about things of this nature.

 

[pilferk]

There's no way I'd pay $25 - $30 per point. I paid approx. $80 via resale last year. That would make my total price per point $105-$110.

Which would be pretty close to what the retail price is right now ($104).

I think, if you REALLY think about it, that while you can HOPE for $5 to $10 per point, you can't realistically expect the number to be that small. For a 250 point contract, you'd be talking between 1250 and 2500 for 15 years of extra points, or $166 per year (less than $1 per point per year). I just can't see Disney going anywhere CLOSE to that low. You'd be paying a "lower" room rate than you are right now....

You paid 80/ppt for resale...for how many years of points? 36 years? That's 2.22 per point, per year....or around $30 per point for 15 years worth of points.

 

[Dis13]

Right. But isn't OKW currently selling for $92 or $94 for a new contract thru Disney (which, obviously, not many are purchasing, hence the overload of OKW inventory)?

So, while, yes, I see your point, I still think that it's a little too high. Maybe something in between.

However, if they "dust off" the OKW points and make them "shiny and new" and worth 50 years, I can see them squeezing the current owners for additional $$$ to make theirs "shiny and new" too. Otherwise, they'll be worth less on the resale market.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see

 

[ChrisMouse]

Very interesting!

It will be exciting to see what happens with these rumors. Depending on the price, I could definitely be convinced to pay to add years to my OKW (we almost considered SSR or AKV just for the extra years).

I'm also chomping at the bit to hear news about GCV...