85%-90%?
If average contract turns over every 10 years then 30% of contracts have turned over since the 2016 restrictions.
But in that time, a whole new resort came online and has all but sold 3 million plus direct points diluting out the resales as a percentage.
Figure 270,000 total owners in 2016, if 10% per year sold that would be 81,000 contracts or about 75 contracts per day sent to ROFR. Now add 30k more CCV in that time; 219,000 blue cards vs. 81,000 white cards: 300k total owners = 73% blue card. Some of those resales are going to go back on market again so not every resale changes a blue card to white. So maybe 75%.
I think the true number is probably closer to 85% than 75% but I ran a thought experiment on it anyway. Like Kat says below, many of those resale owners bought 25 point contracts, so I’d stick with 85% blue cards.