Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[eMoneyBug]

DVC tracking 2021



Below is my tracking for Jan 2021

The methodology is somewhat different for what did in March through August 2020

I have included contracts that have had their price changes included so the separate report for that is discontinued.

I am also going to begin tracking the number active contracts for each resort at the end of each month also as well as the change from the previous month.

Fidelity changed their site, so January data from them is somewhat suspect, this should resolve in February.

As a reminder this data only represents 5 sites that can be tracked for listing time sequence

I also do not track RIV or VGC due to the thin market

I am also going to add some commentary at the bottom when I see something notable.



The format will be this months average, change from previous month the number of contacts listed or changed (or in the case of the January report from last August, the number of active contracts at the end of the month and on the February report the change in active contracts



Resort, Average list, change, count, change, active,

AKV 119 -3 77 -7 35

AUL 105 +5 40 +14 18

BLT 159 +6 40 +1 27

BCV 152 -2 41 +19 29

BWV 132 +4 44 +31 31

BRV 113 +3 23 -2 13

CCV 155 0 34 +8 53

VGF 182 +6 40 +6 19

HH 81 +3 24 -5 46

OKW 105 +2 74 +8 55

Poly 155 +2 70 +22 78

SSR 114 +8 98 -36 59

VB 76 +6 46 -16 46

Good stuff ! Thanks for the hard work.

 

[bookwormde]

I have not seen a large increase in contracts for sale, but I have noticed that a lot of contracts with DVC Resale Market are coming across as “relisted” in my push notifications. These tend to be contracts that were priced on the high side, IMO. I wonder if demand is beginning to slow slightly? It seems like it has remained relatively strong, certainly defying my expectations. I would think the ongoing Covid lockdowns, economic uncertainty, the removal of on-site perks, and the diminished experience right now would be a perfect storm for flooding the market with contracts in an environment with little demand. But I’ve been wrong so far!

so far this year supply demand appears in balance overall, though there is a lot of variability between resorts

There are more contracts coming on the market, but then again it is January s0 sort of expected

 

[Ginamarie]

I have not seen a large increase in contracts for sale, but I have noticed that a lot of contracts with DVC Resale Market are coming across as “relisted” in my push notifications. These tend to be contracts that were priced on the high side, IMO. I wonder if demand is beginning to slow slightly? It seems like it has remained relatively strong, certainly defying my expectations. I would think the ongoing Covid lockdowns, economic uncertainty, the removal of on-site perks, and the diminished experience right now would be a perfect storm for flooding the market with contracts in an environment with little demand. But I’ve been wrong so far!

I don't know if it's demand slowing or just people listing too high. I've seen the list prices go up quite a bit since the fall and I think people just don't want to pay what's being asked. Yes- ROFR has been used more and Disney is raising the direct pricing, but I don't think people want to pay more on the resale market yet.

 

[HappyDisneyWife]

VGF 182 +6 40 +6 19

Ugh. I feel like I just got slapped in the face ... again.

Early 2020, we were considering which resort to add on... VGF was one of our top 3. During the lockdown, most resales seemed to be staying fairly steady. A small spike in AKV. No major drops... but VGF was heading down. It had been regularly listing in the 150-160s and was suddenly listing in the 140s, with many in the 130s! Listing!! And ROFR was shut down. We weren’t ready to pull the trigger quite yet though. So we waited a few months... by then, VGF prices were already on the rebound... and the icing? ROFR was back. I couldn’t handle the thought of paying $20-30 more pp than it had just been, so I chose one of the other resorts.... oh, if I’d only known how quickly it would jump even higher!!!!

Even if a person was buying for speculation (& not for vacation use)- that was the right resort at the right time- and I was right there. Watching from the sidelines, and not doing anything about it.

Does anyone else stalking watching resales ever feel this way? Or am I alone? Do you jump on those opportunities? It just seems like whenever I finally convince my husband we’re ready to pull the trigger, it’s a few months after the best time has passed. Do you think another downturn is coming? Please tell me a few months beforehand, so we’ll be ready!

 

[bookwormde]

Ugh. I feel like I just got slapped in the face ... again.

Early 2020, we were considering which resort to add on... VGF was one of our top 3. During the lockdown, most resales seemed to be staying fairly steady. A small spike in AKV. No major drops... but VGF was heading down. It had been regularly listing in the 150-160s and was suddenly listing in the 140s, with many in the 130s! Listing!! And ROFR was shut down. We weren’t ready to pull the trigger quite yet though. So we waited a few months... by then, VGF prices were already on the rebound... and the icing? ROFR was back. I couldn’t handle the thought of paying $20-30 more pp than it had just been, so I chose one of the other resorts.... oh, if I’d only known how quickly it would jump even higher!!!!

Even if a person was buying for speculation (& not for vacation use)- that was the right resort at the right time- and I was right there. Watching from the sidelines, and not doing anything about it.

Does anyone else stalking watching resales ever feel this way? Or am I alone? Do you jump on those opportunities? It just seems like whenever I finally convince my husband we’re ready to pull the trigger, it’s a few months after the best time has passed. Do you think another downturn is coming? Please tell me a few months beforehand, so we’ll be ready!

I will be generating a DIS ROFR report which is more of real world reference since I think a fair amount of the VGF listing are in the if you want to pay me a silly price I will sell

Part of the ROFR report will show how much less the selling prices are vs listing prices.

AKV as hot 9 months ago, now it is VGF, 6 months from now it will be something else

Is CCV one that you are looking at? if so that inventory is growing

If you want buying resale to be fun, you have to have a sense of humor so you seam on the right track

 

[poofyo101]

Ugh. I feel like I just got slapped in the face ... again.

Early 2020, we were considering which resort to add on... VGF was one of our top 3. During the lockdown, most resales seemed to be staying fairly steady. A small spike in AKV. No major drops... but VGF was heading down. It had been regularly listing in the 150-160s and was suddenly listing in the 140s, with many in the 130s! Listing!! And ROFR was shut down. We weren’t ready to pull the trigger quite yet though. So we waited a few months... by then, VGF prices were already on the rebound... and the icing? ROFR was back. I couldn’t handle the thought of paying $20-30 more pp than it had just been, so I chose one of the other resorts.... oh, if I’d only known how quickly it would jump even higher!!!!

Even if a person was buying for speculation (& not for vacation use)- that was the right resort at the right time- and I was right there. Watching from the sidelines, and not doing anything about it.

Does anyone else stalking watching resales ever feel this way? Or am I alone? Do you jump on those opportunities? It just seems like whenever I finally convince my husband we’re ready to pull the trigger, it’s a few months after the best time has passed. Do you think another downturn is coming? Please tell me a few months beforehand, so we’ll be ready!

If you want the best deal. You have to be ready to go at all times.

 

[Evita_W]

We own at VGC and I check in December of last year and we could sell for a little over double what we paid, not sure where it goes from there, but considering they are still closed and going for that I am guessing it is staying fairly stable as the pricing was similar at the end of 2019 and both seem to be selling well at that price.

 

[gisele2]

And they send you a backpack.

Or a pin...

 

[gisele2]

If you want the best deal. You have to be ready to go at all times.

That is what I did. Finally closing on the second one at my favorite resort BVC.

 

[HappyDisneyWife]

I will be generating a DIS ROFR report which is more of real world reference since I think a fair amount of the VGF listing are in the if you want to pay me a silly price I will sell

That sounds wonderful!! Thank you for all your work! It really is very helpful.

& I totally agree. Current pricing is getting out of hand- I never pay asking.

If you want buying resale to be fun, you have to have a sense of humor so you seam on the right track

So true!!

If you want the best deal. You have to be ready to go at all times.

If I had unlimited funding, I totally would be!!

However, if I miss out on “all great” VGF prices (like I did), then I go looking for a diamond in the rough at another resort high on my list (which I also did). There’s always a good deal to be had, and I’m super happy with all of our home resorts. It’s just much harder work, and not the huge upswing like that VGF scenario was.

 

[bookwormde]

Below is a comparison of what contracts sold for based on data posted by dis members during the last 2 months in comparison to the overage listing price. For the resellers that I track



Resort ROFR listing difference

AKV 109 119 -10

AUL 75 105 -30

BLT 147 159 -12

BCV 134 152 -18

BWV 120 132 -12

BRV 93 113 -20

CCV 139 155 -16

VGF 167 182 -15

HH 76 81 -5

OKW 105 105 0

Poly 135 155 -20

SS 104 114 -10

VB 65 76 -11

 

[heynowirv]

Below is a comparison of what contracts sold for based on data posted by dis members during the last 2 months in comparison to the overage listing price. For the resellers that I track



Resort ROFR listing difference

AKV 109 119 -10

AUL 75 105 -30

BLT 147 159 -12

BCV 134 152 -18

BWV 120 132 -12

BRV 93 113 -20

CCV 139 155 -16

VGF 167 182 -15

HH 76 81 -5

OKW 105 105 0

Poly 135 155 -20

SS 104 114 -10

VB 65 76 -11

 

[heynowirv]

Based on that I'm very happy with our BWV contract that we picked up last July.

 

[Jmazzuca243]

Below is a comparison of what contracts sold for based on data posted by dis members during the last 2 months in comparison to the overage listing price. For the resellers that I track



Resort ROFR listing difference

AKV 109 119 -10

AUL 75 105 -30

BLT 147 159 -12

BCV 134 152 -18

BWV 120 132 -12

BRV 93 113 -20

CCV 139 155 -16

VGF 167 182 -15

HH 76 81 -5

OKW 105 105 0

Poly 135 155 -20

SS 104 114 -10

VB 65 76 -11

Are these straight averages of listed/ROFR prices?

 

[upritbass]

We own at VGC and I check in December of last year and we could sell for a little over double what we paid, not sure where it goes from there, but considering they are still closed and going for that I am guessing it is staying fairly stable as the pricing was similar at the end of 2019 and both seem to be selling well at that price.

VGC was selling for ~$185 at the end of 2019, whereas it is now $225-240 (small contracts on the high end). Buying DVC is kind of like planting a tree:
Q: When is the best time to plant a tree?
A: 20 years ago.
Q: When is the next best time to plant a tree?
A: Now.

 

[lovethesun12]

Below is a comparison of what contracts sold for based on data posted by dis members during the last 2 months in comparison to the overage listing price. For the resellers that I track



Resort ROFR listing difference

AKV 109 119 -10

AUL 75 105 -30

BLT 147 159 -12

BCV 134 152 -18

BWV 120 132 -12

BRV 93 113 -20

CCV 139 155 -16

VGF 167 182 -15

HH 76 81 -5

OKW 105 105 0

Poly 135 155 -20

SS 104 114 -10

VB 65 76 -11

Thanks for all the data. Love your posts.

 

[lovethesun12]

Does anyone else stalking watching resales ever feel this way? Or am I alone? Do you jump on those opportunities? It just seems like whenever I finally convince my husband we’re ready to pull the trigger, it’s a few months after the best time has passed. Do you think another downturn is coming? Please tell me a few months beforehand, so we’ll be ready!

Honestly, I just make the decision I feel most comfortable with at the time. I passed up some contracts last spring/summer that probably wouldn't make it through ROFR right now and it really doesn't bother me because at that time I didn't feel good about it.

 

[sethschroeder]

VGC was selling for ~$185 at the end of 2019, whereas it is now $225-240 (small contracts on the high end). Buying DVC is kind of like planting a tree:
Q: When is the best time to plant a tree?
A: 20 years ago.
Q: When is the next best time to plant a tree?
A: Now.

This is the gist of my travels with DVC over the last 14 months.

Bought two contracts in November 2019 at BWV. Sold both contracts in early April after stripping points from the contracts and still coming out ahead in total dollars spent.

Bought Riviera direct in August for $155/point and its about to cross $200/point the end of this week it sounds like for a base price.

 

[bookwormde]

Are these straight averages of listed/ROFR prices?

I average each of the 2 months and then take the average of those 2 numbers

 

[Jmazzuca243]

I average each of the 2 months and then take the average of those 2 numbers

I like the the simplicity of the analysis but I think it overlooks several large factors.

1. Small (<100 points)/large contracts (>300 points) can be priced significantly different the average contracts. Depending on when you got these numbers, the ratio of small/large contracts is probably skewing the average. My guess is that the large number of small contracts is actually increasing the average compared to the number of small contracts that are posted on ROFR. For a more accurate comparison, I think you should only include contracts of typical size (100-300 points).

2. Fully loaded and stripped contracts have different values. For example, if all the contracts are fully loaded, the higher price would suggest prices increased, when in reality they have not. In this case, you would need to adjust the price of stripped contracts upward for an even comparison. For my VGF contract, I offered more than the average rate on ROFR for a fully loaded contract. But if I stripped the points (2019 and 2020 points) by renting them out at $15 per point, I would have a price per point that is lower than the taken contracts on ROFR that are similarly stripped.

Thanks for these calculations. I think these begin to show some changes, but I caution anyone trying to draw insights from them without accounting for the above factors.