Will CCV prices slump like PV?

[AKNOTTS66]

The point spread is larger but the same applies. VGF is 23/27. 19/22 for BLT. 18/22 for BCV. 17/21 for BRV. CCV is still cheaper than BCV and BLT. PVB is just as "unaffordable" as VGF.

Thats true. VGF and PVB are almost identical in point charts so the same goes for both. VGF just has a much smaller amount of rooms i beleive its only one building so you dont see the prices dropping like PVB and they also have a spread of room types unlike PVB.

 

[Yinn]

Thats true. VGF and PVB are almost identical in point charts so the same goes for both. VGF just has a much smaller amount of rooms i beleive its only one building so you dont see the prices dropping like PVB and they also have a spread of room types unlike PVB.

It’s also 2 years older.

So let’s compare PVB resale prices to VGF prices point in time.

Feb2018 ROFR: Low of $134/pt/ @ 200pts
Mar2018 ROFR: Low of $128/pt @ 125pts
Jul2018 ROFR: Low of $140/pt @ 230pt

For PVB:
Feb2020 ROFR: Low of $120/pt @ 450pts
Mar2020 ROFR: Low of $143/pt @ 200pts

For CCV:
Feb2020 ROFR: Low of $144/pt @ 75pts

All passed ROFR. Are they really that far off from each other? Doesn’t it also SEEM like VGF has bounced back?

Then the 2020 thread goes ahead and lists this nugget: Feb2020 ROFR: Low of $145/pt @ 100pts

Those numbers seem awefully close. So the question is why is it that PVB has a perception of free falling prices due XYZ when VGF doesn’t?

 

[Matty B13]

Those numbers seem awefully close. So the question is why is it that PVB has a perception of free falling prices due XYZ when VGF doesn’t?

I think all DVC contracts are in free fall, especially VGF, small contracts were getting prices around $195/point early this year, and now they are down to $155/point from what I've seen.

 

[DisMomKY]

I think all DVC contracts are in free fall, especially VGF, small contracts were getting prices around $195/point early this year, and now they are down to $155/point from what I've seen.

I think a lot of owners are trying to prevent that. I’ve been offering on contracts a lot in the last week and the ones I’ve dealt w won’t budge much on price

 

[Matty B13]

I think a lot of owners are trying to prevent that. I’ve been offering on contracts a lot in the last week and the ones I’ve dealt w won’t budge much on price

Probably, but I would wait till this fall, with dues coming up in January, some owners might want to dump their contracts at any price. I wouldn't pay more than $155 - $145 / point right now.

 

[DisMomKY]

Probably, but I would wait till this fall, with dues coming up in January, some owners might want to dump their contracts at any price. I wouldn't pay more than $155 - $145 / point right now.

I am not willing to pay more than 130 pp for Poly, 110 pp for BWV. So I’m waiting as long as I have to. I did think about CC but the studios are soooo small and the studios nor 1 bedrooms sleep 5

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I think all DVC contracts are in free fall, especially VGF, small contracts were getting prices around $195/point early this year, and now they are down to $155/point from what I've seen.

That $155 is what it was a year ago so I think it's how you look at it. For some reason it took off tremendously in late summer/early fall. VGC may be the only other one that was close in change. Others resort saw some modest increases but nothing like VGF had and so, like other resorts, it's just dropped back down closer to what it was a year ago.

 

[Sandisw]

That $155 is what it was a year ago so I think it's how you look at it. For some reason it took off tremendously in late summer/early fall. VGC may be the only other one that was close in change. Others resort saw some modest increases but nothing like VGF had and so, like other resorts, it's just dropped back down closer to what it was a year ago.

I noticed a big increase once they announced that walking path. I think that played a role as I was looking at them prior to that and notice the change shortly thereafter!

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I noticed a big increase once they announced that walking path. I think that played a role as I was looking at them prior to that and notice the change shortly thereafter!

Perhaps people are now noticing just how far that walk will be!

 

[Matty B13]

Perhaps people are now noticing just how far that walk will be!

As someone who's family waited over an hour and half for the monorail to get back to VGF, we will do that walk no problem. I just can't believe they hadn't already installed it years ago. I actually hope they come up with some kind of path to both the WL & TTC to complete the loop.

 

[The Jackal]

Ironic...

PVB supposedly has low prices because it only has studios. But CCV not having enough studios is going to hurt resale...

The reality is we’re all speculating here. Why did BWV take a $20/point dive in the last quarter when BCV stayed relatively the same? Same locale, similar dues, same room offerings, cheaper points per night. Did the clown pool suddenly come to life to bring the cost down $40/pt compared to BCV?

Sometimes it’s just the wave of supply. Prices will dip when there’s a lot of options on the same contract. Historically, that means the market is flooded from direct sales, and even after sold out the wave of foreclosures, initial buyers hit the resale market and the prices drop. It takes several years for the ownership pool to stabilize.

I expect the same from CCV before Disney’s price increases and eventual ROFR will support the bottom on CCV. But even then, there’s no guarantee as a flood of similar contracts can drive the price down as we’re seeing With BWV.

I think the price difference for BCV and BWV is a supply and demand issue. BCV has a small supply and the demand excedes it. BWV has a smaller demand and a much larger supply. BWV is much larger than BCV. Could the Skyliner be assisting BCV in price also? The Skyliner is much closer to BCV than BWV. Also when the Skyliner is down they send the traffic to BWV to use busses instead of BCV.