Hurricane Irma?

[perditax]

LATEST NEWS (11:00pm, EST, TUESDAY):

1) Irma Eye to hit Orlando, per U.S.A. forecasters.
2) Irma Eye to make a "hard right turn" and miss Florida, per British Forecasters.
3) WDW is already considering closing parks for second year in a row.
4) I am hoping the Brit Forecasters are right.

I can't tell if you're joking. If not, can you provide sources for any of this?

 

[Roxyfire]

I was also there for Matthew. Not all resorts did box lunches. We were at BWI and had no lines of any sort, no box lunches. I think there was just a pretty big range in what they offered and how things were handled. As for how they charged for the rooms, I'm no help there, we were already booked so didn't add on last minute so no idea.

BWI is pretty limited in the QS right? It's just the boardwalk bakery and such so I can see why they probably didn't have the capacity to deal with that. Thankfully it was just an inconvenience!

 

[wonder whisper]

Watching Mike's live facebook stream again tonight.

He does a great job diseminating the massive amount of info available from multiple sources and makes it easily understood.

His info last night ended up being pretty much spot on.

He said just now that he expects the northward turn that is expected to change Irma's track just off The Keys, will be on the next NOAA update at 11pm (I've found NOAA updates come up on their site about 30 minutes ahead of the posted time)
He is sticking with a landfall in south florida at the present time based on many models -- he just had a graphic up that combined 91 spaghetti models into one possible track.

For those having difficulty finding the live stream -- it's on facebook on his page
Mikes Weather Page
You can also find it by using the search bar and typing in the page name - the stream will come up at or near the top of the page.

Thanks again for the useful updates from Mike and don't worry about any pushback from the wishful thinking crowd (i.e. those promoting outlier models that have Irma taking a hard right turn around Florida). People in the Keys and Miami, batten down those hatches!!!

 

[Jasten]

Question for those with more travel experience. If my flight is friday scheduled to leave at 1pm and arrive around 4pm via jetblue, when is the latest I can make changes to my flight (friday morning?). Also can I change my resort booking the day of without fees? Trying to decide if i need to call this by thursday or if I can keep waiting for more forecast data. Also want to know how long to wait for flight waiver if it will happen. If they do a waiver does it cover moving return flight too?

 

[BigMac3001]

Thanks again for the useful updates from Mike and don't worry about any pushback from the wishful thinking crowd (i.e. those promoting outlier models that have Irma taking a hard right turn around Florida). People in the Keys and Miami, batten down those hatches!!!

Were you always this negative and mean, or did someone kill your kitten?

 

[wonder whisper]

I can't tell if you're joking. If not, can you provide sources for any of this?

No credible sources are predicting a hard right turn around Florida. Almost all the models show Irma veering more northerly sometime Saturday/Sunday and heading up into the state. Sources for that are on the NHS site.

 

[Tonyz]

Well I was right that WAS the NHC forecast at 8.

Here is the updated one:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/905261776501182465/photo/1

This thing could swing and hit Orlando or miss Florida completely.

 

[tmcd1126]

One bright side is if by some miracle I do get to fly into Orlando on the 10th, I finally snagged a BOG lunch reservation during our stay! Fingers crossed.

 

[AndreaA]

No credible sources are predicting a hard right turn around Florida. Almost all the models show Irma veering more northerly sometime Saturday/Sunday and heading up into the state. Sources for that are on the NHS site.

By "none" I assume you mean "many", since new data shows just that from numerous credible sources including the one used by the NOAA.

Sheesh.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

I can't tell if you're joking. If not, can you provide sources for any of this?

As many posters have said, Irma's track beyond the next 24-48 hours is still uncertain. Don't listen to anyone telling you that it is supposed to tear up the middle of Florida. Is that one possible path? Yes. But there are other paths as well. It could shave across the bottom of florida, it could skirt up the east coast into the carolinas or Virginia, it could go out to sea. We won't know for at least another day or two.

 

[BigMac3001]

No credible sources are predicting a hard right turn around Florida. Almost all the models show Irma veering more northerly sometime Saturday/Sunday and heading up into the state. Sources for that are on the NHS site.

Again, straw man. Of course, the model is showing a "hard right turn." They are showing there is a possibility of eastward movement. Why is that so difficult to understand?

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

By "none" I assume you mean "many", since new data shows just that from numerous credible sources including the one used by the NOAA.

Sheesh.

I'm feeling more and more certain that wonder is just trying to stir the pot. You are absolutely correct. In fact I just posted the latest global + ensemble models and they do have a trend east.

 

[Tinkerbell2017]

The picture that a pp posted as a before/after of Hurricane Camille was not a hotel - it was an apartment complex. I remember the incident well. It was given then as 'truth' (the lives lost in the party) so don't know how it got in the news that way.

This poor Veteran seems to have problems of remembering and seems to have scare tactics. Thank you for your knowledge!

 

[BigMac3001]

By "none" I assume you mean "many", since new data shows just that from numerous credible sources including the one used by the NOAA.

Sheesh.

Whisper has made his/her opinion, and no one is going to provide evidence to change that opinion. It's time to move along and let science win out.

 

[wonder whisper]

It's not ignoring. It could very well go up the east coast.

No one will know until tomorrow likely.

Hopefully it does indeed take a hard right turn

The projected steering current changes aren't going to start until Saturday, not tomorrow. Until then, Irma will continue to be pushed north/northwest (and that process will give us all a chilling preview of what it can do as it passes by leeward islands). Come the weekend, the trough moving it will begin to be degraded by a system coming in from the South. That will cause Irma to start heading more northerly just about the time she is right below the keys.

Which is why there is a mandatory evacuation starting in that area tomorrow.

 

[zuzu310]

Just FYI for those wanting to keep free dining. I am trying to rebook during alternate dates that were offered in the April general public release of free dining. I finally got through and was transferred to guest services. The CM told me that they are the only ones who have the power to grant that magic...fingers crossed. I will update when I know something.

 

[DoTheDisFam]

Woo-wee... there're some serious snarks flying around in this thread.

Group hugs all around.

 

[AndreaA]

The projected steering current changes aren't going to start until Saturday, not tomorrow. Until then, Irma will continue t be pushed north/northwest. Come the weekend, the trough doing that will begin to be degraded by a system coming in from the South. That will cause Irma to start heading more northerly just abut the time she is right below the keys. Which is why there is a mandatory evacuation starting in that area tomorrow.

Well my goodness, if you know so much with certainty, why aren't the weather forecasters interviewing you? Surely you must be a meteorological wonderkind.

Again, sheeeeesh.

 

[AngiTN]

Exactly. I've seen several meteorologists comment on it saying that it might have been too early to toss out the "it will curve east" chances. I'll be keeping my fingers, toes, eyes and anything else crossed that this does indeed become a "fish storm" (out to sea).

I don't think it will make it to fish storm status but hopefully to Matthew status

I can't tell if you're joking. If not, can you provide sources for any of this?

Actually, what Rusty posted is pretty much a good synopsis of what is known at this time. Not a joke and sources are everything. Well, other than the Disney considering closing. That's sort of common sense. If they did for Matthew they will for this

BWI is pretty limited in the QS right? It's just the boardwalk bakery and such so I can see why they probably didn't have the capacity to deal with that. Thankfully it was just an inconvenience!

Actually, the Bakery and Pizza window is what they used to feed us, just on a buffet set up in the TS restaurants

No credible sources are predicting a hard right turn around Florida. Almost all the models show Irma veering more northerly sometime Saturday/Sunday and heading up into the state. Sources for that are on the NHS site.

Credible by who's definition? Yours? Why are your sources more credible than the others?

 

[Zippa D Doodah]

Woo-wee... there're some serious snarks flying around in this thread.

Group hugs all around.

I came for discussion of Irma. I'm sticking around for mud wrestling.