Which Crowd Calendar Do You Trust Most?

[hereforthechurros]

I don't use crowd calendars. Why bother? I go into Disney saying they're going to be busy, then I plan accordingly.

Because those of us who don’t live in Florida, and have to spend a ton of money to visit, want to have some idea what they’re getting into before booking.

 

[Klayfish]

Because those of us who don’t live in Florida, and have to spend a ton of money to visit, want to have some idea what they’re getting into before booking.

But those "calendars" won't do that for you. Their guesses have no accuracy value.

 

[ellbell]

Because those of us who don’t live in Florida, and have to spend a ton of money to visit, want to have some idea what they’re getting into before booking.

I live very far from Florida and think they are a waste of money. They aren't accurate which is why the ones that use to be accurate stopped offering predictions.

Think about it. If touring plans says that Christmas is 10/10 and that is as busy as it gets how can they legitimately use 10/10 on any other day? But they do. Also what is an 8 compared to a 10. Disney has also been very successful at filling up most slow times of the year so that now it's always busy. The only thing that you should need to know to help is:
1. Avoid Epcot on the weekends
2. Parks with EMH are going to be busier
3. Mondays and non party days at MK are busy

If I left anything out others can add to the list

 

[SaintsManiac]

Because those of us who don’t live in Florida, and have to spend a ton of money to visit, want to have some idea what they’re getting into before booking.

I don't live in Florida. Again, use the ticket pricing on Disney's site as a guide for how busy it will be.

 

[lentesta]

I have a habit of looking at Kenny the Pirate's and Touring Plans and making decisions based on what they both agree on. Lately, though, the overlap seems rare if at all, and our last two trips didn't seem to line up with either (other than the fact that the week of Christmas was, of course, busy).

I'm curious which crowd calendar all of you DISers find most reliable? If not one of these two, which?

I'm happy to provide stats on the accuracy of the TP crowd calendar. We measure it daily.

 

[Yarbogash]

From reading these kinds of discussions over the years what I’ve learned is some people find crowd calendars to be somehow personally offensive; this discussion is very polite and collaborative but other examples I’ve seen some people get very insulting and negative at the idea of using a crowd calendar.
And then when discussing how the detractors make their plans it’s pretty much the same rationales the crowd calendars use.
I find the debate to be very strange.
IMHO crowd calendars are a good shortcut and should be taken for what they are, an educated guess.
Touring Plans and Undercover Tourist have recently seemed the best.

 

[ENJDisneyFan]

I use to follow KTP (when he decided that he had rights to charge people for information on the refresh method I unfollowed on all social media )

Couldn't agree more. I'm not opposed to paying for content that is well organized and constantly updated, but the notion that he somehow invented and owns the method is ridiculous.

 

[cmwade77]

But those "calendars" won't do that for you. Their guesses have no accuracy value.

I have found the Dinseyland one from TouringPlans to be a decent gauge on how busy it will get. It isn't perfect, but it gives me a reasonable idea. I signed up for the Disneyland version to see just how accurate it may or may not be since we have passes to Disneyland. As a result I signed up for Disney World to attempt to plan which parks would be the least busy on which days of our trip. It isn't going to be perfect, I am sure, but it will hopefully help some.

 

[monkyby87]

Because those of us who don’t live in Florida, and have to spend a ton of money to visit, want to have some idea what they’re getting into before booking.

Not to be crass or mean, but the previous posters advice of just assuming it will be busy is really the best advice. There are so many new and different things going on with Disney right now that it's getting harder and harder to predict crowds. You have new rides, new tours, new transportation options, new hotels, new ticket prices, etc. There are so many things all at once than any historical data is useless. We can all predict that Galaxy's Edge will be busy, as will the normal holiday seasons, but aside from that there are no sure bets on crowds. Until Disney stops changing things (not anytime soon), the best advice is to just expect busy times, plan accordingly, and enjoy as much as you can.

 

[glamdring269]

I don't use a crowd calendar to tell me what time of year to visit.I use a crowd calendar as one of a few different data points to help me decide what to do on a given day for the time period I'm there. Anything we can leverage to gain an advantage is a win in my opinion.

With that said, we typically are at the front of the rope drop line so crowd calendars are definitely not the key ingredient. Getting there early is the key ingredient to our plan.

 

[disneyseniors]

Kenny the Pirate!

 

[ELLH]

Others have noted this: the ticket pricing will give you an idea of what to expect when it comes to crowds.

HOWEVER, there's crowd level and then there's wait times. Crowd level and wait time aren't necessarily directly proportional. Depending on how Disney plans operate that day (meaning number of cast members and ride throughput) you can very well be at the parks on a moderate-level crowd day but experience attraction waits that rival the heaviest of crowds. Or vice versa.

This, combined with the fact that there aren't staunchly defined "off seasons" anymore, is why crowd calendars are not as useful as they once were.

 

[Donald Schmuck]

Touring plans all the way

 

[tex1989]

None, and I really mean that. Not that I look and don't trust, but literally I don't look. Many years ago I did and through actual observation I learned that none of them were ever accurate and so now I don't look at any. Since we go about three times a year with AP's we pick the schedule that works for us and go with it. Now if I was close enough to drive in for weekends I might care but since I live 16 hours away by car and over 2 hours away by plane, it makes little difference. I know to stay away around Christmas and New Years and do. I also know from having a wife who worked in a school that Spring Break is terrible (She is fortunately retired now), I have now decided that summer while very hot and humid is actually not the worst time of the year to go. Because of the heat our June and July trips (excluding around 4th of July) have been the least crowded times and we have gotten the most done at those times. Enough people are willing to take the kids out of school the rest of the year and the Festivales concentrate away from summer that it is actual an enjoyable time with less people. Don't know if any ones crowd calendars reflect that but that's been our experience.

 

[Craig W]

How important to you is a SDD FP? If it's important I would move DHS to Thurs to give yourself a little better chance. Lately it's been harder to get than FOP (although they seem to switch back and forth on that). With SWGE opening with no FPs for smugglers run there are going to be more people in the park and they're not going to have a SW ride to use their Tier 1 FP on.

If an FOP FP is more important to you than I'd leave it as you have it.

Thanks! Can you explain (unless you did and I missed it) how the SDD FP will be easier on Thursday? I understand the rest about SWGE and agree. Thanks!!

 

[cruisin5]

It's all smoke and mirrors.

Past performance is no indication of future performance. It will be busy. Weekends are busier. Holiday weekends more so. Holiday weeks are nuts. Morning EMH days are busier. Mornings after an evening EMH are less busy.

Plan accordingly.

 

[Upatnoon]

Great story here:

https://www.easywdw.com/easy/blog/walt-disney-world-early-2019-crowd-and-wait-time-trends/

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Thanks! Can you explain (unless you did and I missed it) how the SDD FP will be easier on Thursday? I understand the rest about SWGE and agree. Thanks!!

Because it's one day later in your stay. Fewer people will be able to book that day than Wed depending on when their stays start. You will see a lot of people taking about booking FP on 60+1, 2, 3 etc. The further in your stay you are looking for an FP, the better your chances of getting it. This is a non issue for everything other than FOP, SDD, and 7DMT.

 

[rteetz]

Great story here:

https://www.easywdw.com/easy/blog/walt-disney-world-early-2019-crowd-and-wait-time-trends/

An article looking to pick a fight if you ask me.

Josh has and does make his own crowd calendars. No crowd calendar is perfect and all are really a best guess based on what the person or system creating thinks. If Touring Plans wasn’t successful I don’t think they would still be in business.

 

[Iowamomof4]

An article looking to pick a fight if you ask me.

Josh has and does make his own crowd calendars. No crowd calendar is perfect and all are really a best guess based on what the person or system creating thinks. If Touring Plans wasn’t successful I don’t think they would still be in business.

Agree with your first statement, but he actually quit doing crowd calendars about a year ago. EDIT: Oops, I meant 2 years ago.