I mean at this point, why is anyone buying direct?

[tjkraz]

I know. I only own resale. AKV and CCV. I was saying that those who go into direct thinking it’s a benefit because you’re not restricted from other resorts. Yes that’s true, but only if you’re lucky enough at the 7 month mark. I know seasons play a big role too. Oct-Jan is extremely difficult at 7 mths.

Claiming that it requires "luck" to book at 7 months is a misleading generalization. Even during October - January. No, you won't be able to book many locations on 5-6 months notice during more popular periods. And smallish room classes like AKV Club level and BLT Standard will be booked by owners. But countless members get exactly what they want at 7 months.

Go look at availability right now for October - November 2023. Every WDW resort has Studio, 1B and 2B rooms available for nearly all dates. Those rooms won't all fill up right before the 7 month window.

 

[RoseGold]

To me, over time the unrestricted points are a really big deal, by design. If you plan to stay in this system long term, Disney is making you need unrestricted points.

Of course, I'm assuming future resorts are restricted, and I guess we will see if Disney is going to die on that hill.

In the short term, where I am, sure. No Blue Card perks, don't need unrestricted points for now. Who cares about RIV. Heck, maybe I'll have completely sold before Poly2 is even open.

 

[Straulin]

We bought 360 BCV mid-2022. Those were resale as we paid $140 pp vs $265 pp. So the roughly 47% savings was worth it. We looked at buying at a number of resorts but the math just worked better with our desires at BCV.

If we added on, it would probably be direct GFV. We thought very seriously about it last month. We have the Disney Visa so get some discounts but there were a large number of other discounts we could have gotten if we were direct when eating /shopping.

While the current benefits are not worth all that much, avoiding FOMO for the next few decades would be worth it for the direct vs. resale for the currently marketed resorts (specifically Grand Floridian) for us with a 150 point purchase. I probably wouldn’t go direct for more points.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I was interested in AKV and it’s increased by about $30/point over the last couple of years. I considered a small resale add on there but it would only save me a few thousand over more direct RIV points that are unrestricted and have a longer contract life.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-november-2022/

Comparing two resorts is tough, but the board sponsor’s report shows AKV started the year at $145 resale and was $135 resale in Nov. There are listing right now for AKV at $114/$115pp. In Dec 2019 it was $109pp (https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-december-2020/)

There are some fully loaded 50pt contracts available for $130pp.

A small direct RIV contract would be $217pp. At 150 points direct you would save $2pp.

A 50pt RIV contract would cost you $4,350 vs AKV resale. ($10,850 vs $6500)

A 150pt RIV contract would cost you $15,000 vs AKV resale. ($32,250 vs $17,250)

 

[TinkB278]

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-november-2022/

Comparing two resorts is tough, but the board sponsor’s report shows AKV started the year at $145 resale and was $135 resale in Nov. There are listing right now for AKV at $114/$115pp. In Dec 2019 it was $109pp (https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-december-2020/)

There are some fully loaded 50pt contracts available for $130pp.

A small direct RIV contract would be $217pp. At 150 points direct you would save $2pp.

A 50pt RIV contract would cost you $4,350 vs AKV resale. ($10,850 vs $6500)

A 150pt RIV contract would cost you $15,000 vs AKV resale. ($32,250 vs $17,250)

You’re using $217/point which I did not pay. Also those AKV prices you quoted are low as it has been hovering around $140/point for at least a year. To me, saving a few thousand isn’t worth it to have something restricted for 30 plus years.

 

[AstroBlasters]

You’re using $217/point which I did not pay. Also those AKV prices you quoted are low as it has been hovering around $140/point for at least a year. To me, saving a few thousand isn’t worth it to have something restricted for 30 plus years.

Since the thread is about “buying” I take that to mean “looking to buy right now”. That’s the prices if you buy right now, which is what I am comparing. Also the “few thousand dollars” is a large % savings. I also don’t look at them as very restricted (outside of RIV for the next 19 years).

However, I completely get your point that if you were looking at a different time and there was a smaller delta between the prices and staying at RIV is important to you then direct would be the better way to go.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

ok. I’m hearing…

1. Gambling on APs
2. Unrestricted points
-use at future resorts
-smaller pool of legacy resorts in 20 y
-use on cruises etc
3. Getting points immediately/ease of buying with Disney
4. People on west coast are tempted to buy DL direct to be able to book there.
5. Gambling for future unknown blue card benefits
6. Disney visa financing
7. The direct v resale spread at VGF is small
8. Booking primarily at RIV, but not wanting to be restricted to RIV
9. Lack of knowledge of resale market
10. Ability to pass on unrestricted contracts to kids/heirs
11. FOMO
12. “Status”/ blue card “vibe” (love that description @ Brett Wyman)

 

[havoc315]

why are you saying 10-15 years when the first associations don’t expire for 19 years?

It's a bit less than 19 years now. And it depends on which property you own. If talking re-sale at the 2042 resorts, I expect the further resale value to crater by 10 to 15 years from now. Totally destroying the economic value.

In other words --- If you buy $40,000 of VGF/RIV right now, you can probably resell it in 10 to 15 years, getting back most (if not all) of what you paid. If you buy a 2042 property re-sale right now for the "re-sale discount" of $30,000.... but then can't resell it for meaningful money in 2037...
Then that re-sale was actually $30,000 more expensive than the purchase of VGF/RIV.

So to be more precise -- re-sale of the 2042 properties only makes financial sense if you plan to own for less than 10-15 years, otherwise the financial value of the 2060-2070 resorts (re-sale or direct) makes a lot more sense.

 

[Nursemanit]

People are so hyperbolic - no one who owns that many points at Aul and VGC is " Locked out " of anything - I bet he could stay at Rivera Christmas week anytime he wants - One forum post wanting to point swap with a long-term RIV resale owner for Xmas week and it is his. The same will be true after 2042.

 

[tjkraz]

People are so hyperbolic

One forum post wanting to point swap with a long-term RIV resale owner for Xmas week and it is his.

Yeah. "People."

 

[NVDISFamily]

People are so hyperbolic - no one who owns that many points at Aul and VGC is " Locked out " of anything - I bet he could stay at Rivera Christmas week anytime he wants - One forum post wanting to point swap with a long-term RIV resale owner for Xmas week and it is his. The same will be true after 2042.

I’m slowly researching this as this seems like the smart way to go so we don’t have to buy points at too many resorts. I think our VGC points will put us at advantage to exchange for things we want that are hard to get but I have no clue at this point.

 

[NVDISFamily]

The direct v resale spread at VGF is small

Like your list overall. I’d edit this one (number 7) to say something like this -

Disney can use incentives to cut direct prices to the point where they get close enough to resell to make it worth considering. VGF is close right now and other resorts have been good deals in the past.

 

[AstroBlasters]

It's a bit less than 19 years now. And it depends on which property you own. If talking re-sale at the 2042 resorts, I expect the further resale value to crater by 10 to 15 years from now. Totally destroying the economic value.

In other words --- If you buy $40,000 of VGF/RIV right now, you can probably resell it in 10 to 15 years, getting back most (if not all) of what you paid. If you buy a 2042 property re-sale right now for the "re-sale discount" of $30,000.... but then can't resell it for meaningful money in 2037...
Then that re-sale was actually $30,000 more expensive than the purchase of VGF/RIV.

So to be more precise -- re-sale of the 2042 properties only makes financial sense if you plan to own for less than 10-15 years, otherwise the financial value of the 2060-2070 resorts (re-sale or direct) makes a lot more sense.

I agree that whether going direct or resale that the longer term properties are more “economical”.

I suppose the BCV and BWV folks would say that resale still makes sense relative to rack rates and that they want to be able walk to EPCOT even if it is not as “economical”. We’ll see if the current rack rates are sustainable.

 

[havoc315]

I agree that whether going direct or resale that the longer term properties are more “economical”.

I suppose the BCV and BWV folks would say that resale still makes sense relative to rack rates and that they want to be able walk to EPCOT even if it is not as “economical”. We’ll see if the current rack rates are sustainable.

Lots of reasons to love BCV/BWV… whether it’s economical compared to renting points, rack rate, and Swan/Dolphin, becomes pretty iffy. (Depends partly on the resale price you get it for).

 

[Nursemanit]

We’ll see if the current rack rates are sustainable.

This is the key, It kind of shocks me that people would pay $750/night for a RR studio ( May) . They book up so people must, but that is a really steep rate, A quick check at WBC and I can get a room the same week 2x the size (900sq ft) for less than $300 a night. For the 450 difference per night, a couple could buy tickets and food + a few lyfts if they don't want to wait for the bus.

 

[AstroBlasters]

This is the key, It kind of shocks me that people would pay $750/night for a RR studio ( May) . They book up so people must, but that is a really steep rate, A quick check at WBC and I can get a room the same week 2x the size (900sq ft) for less than $300 a night. For the 450 difference per night, a couple could buy tickets and food + a few lyfts if they don't want to wait for the bus.

That has always been my hang up on DLH and GC. The prices got too dang high!

We started going in 2010 and the DLH rooms were VERY affordable because of the economy. I remember that we would book through CostCo and on the day we checked out they would leave a note with our bill that we could extend our stay for some ridiculously low price ($100 night or less?). We started booking for less nights (“risking it to get the biscuit”) so that we could extend our stay at the fire sales prices (we had a family members house as a backup).

Eventually the economy recovered and the prices started to increase. No more “extend your stay offers”. That also coincided with the kids getting older and needing full price airfare and park tickets ($$$). I started to look outside of “the bubble” to the great disappointment of my wife. “Why would I pay $600 for a DLH room for a night when I can get the Marriott Theme Park/ Westin/ Hilton/ etc. for $250-$300. Over 5 days that’s $1500! Have you seen the ticket prices”. It is also true that we went from traveling at off peak times to times based on when school was out. More $$$ for airfare and lodging….

Our recent trip (March 22) we rented an Air BnB at a townhome by the DLH hotel.
Uber drivers didn’t want to pic us up for the short trips.
We got so tired of the walk that we rented a room at the GC for one night at $1k. Everyone loved it and I was perplexed on how I could make everything work in the future.

Now, with my VGC I can get a studio over Spring break at the amortized equivalent of $364/night or a 1 bedroom at $728/night. I feel a bit poorer because of the buy in, but I feel confident that over the long run the math will work out and there will not be a yearly “where are we going to stay battle”.

 

[Nursemanit]

I’m slowly researching this as this seems like the smart way to go so we don’t have to buy points at too many resorts. I think our VGC points will put us at advantage to exchange for things we want that are hard to get but I have no clue at this point.

Ask your tax guy - but mine said that point-for-point swaps have no tax liability unlike renting your points. Yes, it rarely works out equally so there will be some taxable $ changing hands but usually less than 15 points. VGC has to be 1st or 2nd in desirability. Zoom and Webex make this so easy since you can book together.

 

[Nursemanit]

That has always been my hang up on DLH and GC. The prices got to dang high!

We started going in 2010 and the DLH rooms were VERY affordable because of the economy. I remember that we would book through CostCo and on the day we checked out they would leave a note with our bill that we could extend our stay for some ridiculously low price ($100 night or less?). We started booking for less nights “risking it to get the biscuit” so that we could extend our stay at the fire sales price because we had a family members house as a backup.

Eventually the economy recovered and the prices started to increase. No more “extend your stay offers”. That also coincided with the kids getting older and needing full price airfare and park tickets ($$$). I started to look outside of “the bubble” to the great disappointment of my wife. “Why would I pay $600 for a DLH room for a night when I can get the Marriott Theme Park/ Westin/ Hilton/ etc. for $250-$300. Over 5 days that’s $1500! Have you seen the ticket prices”. It is also true that we went from traveling at off peak times to times based on when school was out. More $$$ for airfare and lodging….

Our trip in March 22 we rented an Air BnB at a townhome by the DLH hotel.
Uber drivers didn’t want to pic us up for the short trips.
We got so tired of the walk that we rented a room at the GC with a DTD view for one night at $1k. Everyone loved it and I was perplexed on how I could make everything work in the future.

Now, with my VGC I can get a studio over Spring break at the amortized equivalent of $364/night or a 1 bedroom at $728/night. I feel a bit poorer because of the buy in, but I feel confident that over the long run the math will work out and there will not be a yearly “where are we going to stay battle”.

I will say the Lyft drivers in WDW are pretty accommodating. I used them for real short hops and they did not care and said " i get the tip either way" but I have run into the uber issue in NYC.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

So I asked this question because I was wondering what happens to DVC if people do not keep buying direct? And I was thinking, if I were buying now, I would not buy any direct points. We ended up buying direct because with three kids we made the calculation that we would make up the direct “tax” with discounted APs in a matter of a couple of years. We liked the idea of using points for cruises and handing down direct contracts to our kids. We also liked the idea of using points at concierge locations and moonlight magic. But we really only bought direct for the AP deal. It was purely financial. Our resale contracts were grandfathered in and could be used anywhere, so we were not worried about that.

Well, fast forward the clock. No APs. We’ve never used our points for cruises or concierge destinations. They’ve gotten rid of that whole concierge system (apparently? I don’t know— I can’t figure it out). Moonlight Magic? On the rare occasions when they do have them, they are just too hard to get to. Handing the contracts down to the kids? At this point I’m not sure they will want them . And most startling to us— the contracts we bought for specific purposes? We just end up using everything everywhere. The RIV points we bought? We find every time we go to book it we are put off by the point chart and use the points somewhere else.

It is interesting to see why people are still buying direct. So, thanks. I especially like the AP gamble and hope that one pans out.

 

[TinkB278]

So I asked this question because I was wondering what happens to DVC if people do not keep buying direct? And I was thinking, if I were buying now, I would not buy any direct points. We ended up buying direct because with three kids we made the calculation that we would make up the direct “tax” with discounted APs in a matter of a couple of years. We liked the idea of using points for cruises and handing down direct contracts to our kids. We also liked the idea of using points at concierge locations and moonlight magic. But we really only bought direct for the AP deal. It was purely financial. Our resale contracts were grandfathered in and could be used anywhere, so we were not worried about that.

Well, fast forward the clock. No APs. We’ve never used our points for cruises or concierge destinations. They’ve gotten rid of that whole concierge system (apparently? I don’t know— I can’t figure it out). Moonlight Magic? On the rare occasions when they do have them, they are just too hard to get to. Handing the contracts down to the kids? At this point I’m not sure they will want them . And most startling to us— the contracts we bought for specific purposes? We just end up using everything everywhere. The RIV points we bought? We find every time we go to book it we are put off by the point chart and use the points somewhere else.

It is interesting to see why people are still buying direct. So, thanks. I especially like the AP gamble and hope that one pans out.

I didn’t buy direct for moonlight magic but did like that it would be available for me. After trying to get a ticket multiple times last year with no luck, I have to say that the idea of that event left a bad taste in my mouth.