Fall Incentives

[DanCali]

Have we actually heard that there will be a "Poly 2," separate from the first Poly association? I hadn't heard confirmation of that yet. It could certainly end up being the same as Grand Floridian, in which case the new points being sold will not be restricted.

No, we haven't heard that. When we hear either way, I imagine that thread will be buzzing for weeks... At this point it's pure speculation based on the general direction things seem to be headed. But maybe if sales are much slower at Riviera than anticipated internally, they will opt for a different route? (wishful thinking!)

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Okay. So these 2 posts demonstrate to me the "sky is falling" attitude toward possible decreased resale value due to restrictions - they range from anywhere from "RIV resale is worth what BLT is worth" - i.e. restrictions may have a small percentage impact on resale value, to "if you buy RIV direct, just don't ever sell it because it will be worth zero $".

lol - Nobody has ever said it will be worth $0. At least not that I've ever read. That would never happen as it's still a room onsite at a location that charges $$$ per night cash. True that other factors are accounting for the lower resale value but doesn't mean it isn't the restrictions. My gut says it likely is a large factor when considering what I've seen over the years with DVC. It's a fine resort but if you're looking at resale and have 14 options that allow you to stay at multiple locations and 1 that is just that, one? And then you realize you could rent out your points and rent a reservation to stay at that one if you really wanted to? The hand holding the 14 becomes worth a little bit more than the hand holding the 1 regarding that factor.

Historically resales of resorts in current sales have been priced just a bit below direct as owners often have loans and don't want to bring funds to the table to sell it. Aulani might be the closer comparison but it's offsite and relatively ignored by DVC for sales in a typical presentation. RIV has dropped lower in the rank faster than I think has occurred before for an onsite WDW resort. I'd have to really dig on SSR to see how long and well that held up. It is so big and was in sales so long that it had it's own unique factors.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The percentage savings with resale. Last column.

I'm still not correlating how a chart column to encourage resale sales by a resale broker indicates that RIV is holding up well? That's a different discussion on current DVC direct pricing and their sales objectives.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I'm still not correlating how a chart column to encourage resale sales by a resale broker indicates that RIV is holding up well? That's a different discussion on current DVC direct pricing and their sales objectives.

Okay

 

[mamaofsix]

No, we haven't heard that. When we hear either way, I imagine that thread will be buzzing for weeks... At this point it's pure speculation based on the general direction things seem to be headed. But maybe if sales are much slower at Riviera than anticipated internally, they will opt for a different route? (wishful thinking!)

That's what I was thinking. To be honest, the new Poly building is very similar to the Grand Floridian situation, so I see it more going that way than Riviera.

 

[Sandisw]

I’m far from a data scientist. Comparing today’s sold out pricing does not reflect buyers actual experiences over the last decade+. In that sense RIV -40% drop is not typical. Pulled from DISboards history:

(Price Adjusted for Inflation and
% difference from resale price today)

2009 with incentives
BLT $98pp ($140 0%) and as low as $92pp ($131 +8.5%)
AKV $96pp ($137 -9%)

2012 with incentives
SSR $105 ($140 -22%)

2013 with incentives
AKV around $100pp still plus a big stack of VIP fastpasses lol ($131 -9%)
VGF $150pp before incentives which I can’t find ($197 -20%)

2015
PVB full price $165 ($212 -25%) Incentives were said to be small and I can’t even find any.
People commented ‘Sales slow ‘ yet sold out by 2018 where DVC then opened a waitlist at $220pp!!!
(By mid-2018 Poly resale was $150pp, so even at the high buy-in and price adjusted it had only dropped around -10%)

2017 with incentives
CCV ~$160pp ($200 -30%)
Late 2018 CCV incentives brought it

-40% direct to resale doesn’t look typical to me, though the gap’s widening since the changes DVD implemented.

Are you using resale prices from when they were still in active sales? Meaning within that 2 to 3 year period when DVD was still selling each one?

For example, in 2011, three years after BLT went on sale it was raised to $140…but resale was in the $80s and $90s

Yet, over the years it rebounded back up. It really was more that the chart is misleading if one is trying to determine what loss people are seeing against what is being paid.

 

[Sandisw]

I'm still not correlating how a chart column to encourage resale sales by a resale broker indicates that RIV is holding up well? That's a different discussion on current DVC direct pricing and their sales objectives.

I look at it this way currently. People are paying prices for RIV that are not too far off what others are paying for CCV snd PVB right now and is averaging higher than some other resorts, all of which can trade to the 014

Seeing it’s restricted to just one, I consider that doing well all things considered. And, if direct has averaged $$160: to 170s, I’m not sure how much higher it would have been selling for resale even if it wasn’t restricted

Now, I do think we may see it settle lower down the line…but who knows once more resorts come on the line with them.

 

[Genie+]

Are you using resale prices from when they were still in active sales? Meaning within that 2 to 3 year period when DVD was still selling each one?

For example, in 2011, three years after BLT went on sale it was raised to $140…but resale was in the $80s and $90s

Yet, over the years it rebounded back up. It really was more that the chart is misleading if one is trying to determine what loss people are seeing against what is being paid, not the percent of base.

The resale prices I used were from post#83 - Aug ‘23 Resales

DVC Resale Prices Compared to Direct DVC Prices​

Below is a chart comparing the DVC Resale Market prices to Direct Resale prices:

Resort	Resale (Based on August ’23 Sales)	Direct* (Disney Vacation Development)	Difference Per Point (Direct – Resale)	Percentage Savings with Resale
Animal Kingdom	$120	$210	$90	43%
Aulani	$110	$217	$107	49%
Bay Lake Tower	$141	$275	$134	49%
Beach Club	$144	$275	$131	48%
Boardwalk	$128	$240	$112	47%
Boulder Ridge	$105	$215	$110	51%
Copper Creek	$140	$250	$110	44%
Grand Californian	$298	$310	$12	4%
Grand Floridian	$157	$230	$73	32%
Hilton Head	$85	$165	$80	48%
Old Key West	$88	$205	$117	57%
Old Key West – Ext	$109	$205	$96	47%
Polynesian	$154	$250	$96	38%
Riviera Resort	$131	$217	$86	40%
Saratoga Springs	$109	$205	$96	47%
Vero Beach	$61	$150	$89	59%

*Direct price does not reflect any promotional discounts DVC may be offering. Grand Floridian pricing reflects the upcoming price increase effective September 12th. Click here to view resale restrictions.

EXCEPT what was in parenthesis under Poly 2015,
“(By mid-2018 Poly resale was $150pp, so even at the high buy-in and price adjusted it had only dropped around -10%)”
That compared 2015 direct Poly with no incentives and resale for most of 2018.

Interestingly the direct price seemed relatively hIgh in 2015 and people thought sales were slow due to that. Yet shortly after it sold out, and 2018 resale still held over 90% of the value 3 years later.
————-
BLT direct prices climbed rapidly over 4 years, but I’m having a hard time pinning down what people actually paid. Posts like this from late 2012 point at good offers:

We own 4 contracts - 4 home resorts - 2 were purchased direct, 2 were purchased via resale. In each case, we bought at the best price we could get.

We have never paid over $100 per point, and in the case of our Bay Lake Tower points, we paid direct what the resales are going for in some cases. We bought in one of DVC's lowest direct sale months on record in recent history - and we got a free 7 night cruise with our purchase, plus $$$ per point, and the points were in our account the next morning.

Our third purchase was for Saratoga - we bought resale, for $35 or more less than direct.

Our last purchase was resale - We wanted HHI points, we had out eye on the resale market for months, and nothing we wanted seemed to be surfacing.
So I called DVC to see if we could buy what we wanted direct.
To say that the guide I spoke to (not our guide, she was out on DCL that week) but to say that the guide I spoke to could care less is a major understatement. He in fact discouraged me from going on a waitlist for what we wanted - they didn't have any point in our use year on hand, and they weren't in regular habit of buying back HHI points.

At that time the price for HHI was right around $85 I think - and on the resale market we paid less than HALF of that when we eventually found OUR contract. It was more points than what we had planned on buying - but we couldn't pass up the deal!

We are 'done' in the points department - don't think we'll ever be buying more points (DW would kill me :/ )

BUT, nope, I don't think you are cheap - I think you are realistic.... unlike DVC who keeps raising prices.....while prices on the resale market keep dropping!

If anybody remembers what they paid BLT direct after discounts c2009-2013 it’d be greatly appreciated to share.

 

[Sandisw]

The resale prices I used were from post#83 - Aug ‘23 Resales



EXCEPT what was in parenthesis under Poly 2015,
“(By mid-2018 Poly resale was $150pp, so even at the high buy-in and price adjusted it had only dropped around -10%)”
That compared 2015 direct Poly with no incentives and resale for most of 2018.

Interestingly the direct price seemed relatively hIgh in 2015 and people thought sales were slow due to that. Yet shortly after it sold out, and 2018 resale still held over 90% of the value 3 years later.
————-
BLT direct prices climbed rapidly over 4 years, but I’m having a hard time pinning down what people actually paid. Posts like this from late 2012 point at good offers:

If anybody remembers what they paid BLT direct after discounts c2009-2013 it’d be greatly appreciated to share.

I don’t think it’s a fair comparison to use today’s resale prices, even if adjusting the initial sales price.

As direct prices increased for sold out resorts, so did the resale prices. As I shared, when BLT was 3 years into sales, it’s base price was $140 and yet resale was in the $80s and $90s…

To bring this back to incentives, I think DVDs pricing of RIV, and even VGF for that matter, has played a role in the resale value.

Right now, you have decent pricing direct for RIV so the difference isn’t large enough yet beteeen the two.

If direct can be had for $170, then some will opt for that over resale. And it’s probably likely that those selling now bought for closer to $160…

Once it’s sold out, then I think we will get a better picture on it all.

But, I definitely think the days of contracts increasing in value may be over with the restrictions model we now have.

And that DVD will continue agressive pricing strategies to make more buyers go direct..just like we saw with VGF these past few months.

 

[Genie+]

As direct prices increased for sold out resorts, so did the resale prices. As I shared, when BLT was 3 years into sales, it’s base price was $140 and yet resale was in the $80s and $90s…

It’s so hard to compare any of this apples to apples. Each case has unique factors. With so many moving parts I think the best that could be done is tease out trends.

What numbers to use that don’t just take one snapshot comparison when you have best direct pricing moving, resale prices moving, economy moving, rules of membership moving, resort options moving along with many others?

I feel ike this is one of WDW’s proprietary ingredients lol. Continuous changes make precise comparisons challenging.

But, I definitely think the days of contracts increasing in value may be over with the restrictions model we now have.

That’s the big question. How did the landscape change over the years - What prices were people buying direct followed by what resale prices they’d get on that property 3, 5, 10+ years after. With that info is RIV different?

 

[Sandisw]

It’s so hard to compare any of this apples to apples. Each case has unique factors. With so many moving parts I think the best that could be done is tease out trends.

What numbers to use that don’t just take one snapshot comparison when you have best direct pricing moving, resale prices moving, economy moving, rules of membership moving, resort options moving along with many others?

I feel ike this is one of WDW’s proprietary ingredients lol. Continuous changes make precise comparisons challenging.



That’s the big question. How did the landscape change over the years - What prices were people buying direct followed by what resale prices they’d get on that property 3, 5, 10+ years after. With that info is RIV different?

I don’t see RIV as that different yet when you look at the actual price people have paid and are paying, based on what I have seen over the years.

Restrictions certainly make it different and shrink the buyer pool, so there is going to be some level of decrease. I guess it comes down to what people define as a major or minor impact.

Let’s assume it had no restrictions. If the average direct selling price has, as I said, been in the $160s, what would we be expecting for resale? 10% discount puts us in the $140s. 20% puts us near the current average. And, there was a time a year ago it was averaging in the $140s..but all resorts are lower now, not just RIV.

Most resorts have seen something similar when resorts are still active in the first few years.

That’s why direct pricing, at least IMO, plays a big role in what resale will go for and why I think we are seeing a shift in DVDs model.

They seem to have moved from selling one main resort at a time to moving to having multiple ones and looking at total sales vs indivual resorts.

These new incentives will push RIV to a higher volume of sales, and my guess is it will be like like 2022 levels when it was the least expensive option.

 

[J-Dog]

lol - Nobody has ever said it will be worth $0. At least not that I've ever read. That would never happen as it's still a room onsite at a location that charges $$$ per night cash. True that other factors are accounting for the lower resale value but doesn't mean it isn't the restrictions. My gut says it likely is a large factor when considering what I've seen over the years with DVC. It's a fine resort but if you're looking at resale and have 14 options that allow you to stay at multiple locations and 1 that is just that, one? And then you realize you could rent out your points and rent a reservation to stay at that one if you really wanted to? The hand holding the 14 becomes worth a little bit more than the hand holding the 1 regarding that factor.

Historically resales of resorts in current sales have been priced just a bit below direct as owners often have loans and don't want to bring funds to the table to sell it. Aulani might be the closer comparison but it's offsite and relatively ignored by DVC for sales in a typical presentation. RIV has dropped lower in the rank faster than I think has occurred before for an onsite WDW resort. I'd have to really dig on SSR to see how long and well that held up. It is so big and was in sales so long that it had it's own unique factors.

A PP literally said that if you buy RIV direct, you should plan to never sell it. That is generally the plan for other timeshare companies because they are essentially worthless on the resale market. DVC is not like that, including RIV.

 

[tom1944]

A PP literally said that if you buy RIV direct, you should plan to never sell it. That is generally the plan for other timeshare companies because they are essentially worthless on the resale market. DVC is not like that, including RIV.

That is similar advice that many provide when buying any of the resorts.

Buy to use it and don't worry about potential resale prices.

 

[DanCali]

A PP literally said that if you buy RIV direct, you should plan to never sell it. That is generally the plan for other timeshare companies because they are essentially worthless on the resale market. DVC is not like that, including RIV.

As a percentage of all timeshares, you may be generally right in 95%+ of cases. But it'd be wrong to try and create the impression that DVC is the only thing that has resale value because that's simply not true. There are plenty of "quality" timeshares in in other systems. We own multiple deeded weeks with Marriott and Westin and most are worth between $10K - $20K on the resale market, some of them being "Gold" season (vs. the more desirable "Platinum"). The ROI on these, whether you rent them out or compare to savings vs rental rates, is actually much better higher than DVC. Moreover, those deeds are perpetual and don't become worthless at a fixed dates although, as you said, supply and demand can drive values there.

As an example, I've had my eye on a Platinum week at a certain resort where we already own a Gold week. They don't come on the market often, and and when they do they are going on Redweek for around $30K.



As for those who buy direct and plan to "never" sell because they know in advance they will take a huge capital loss down the road - I'll just say that the best deals I've seen on timeshares were a result of a divorce or an inheritance fire sale. Nobody takes the deeds to the grave literally... although the DVC ones do expire at some point so someone will end up with that worthless piece of paper.

 

[DanCali]

That is similar advice that many provide when buying any of the resorts.

Buy to use it and don't worry about potential resale prices.

I'm not fond of that advice. Why not worry about resale prices? Do you think the developer doesn't look at resale prices? They actually look at every sale, literally...

When you buy a home to use, don't you think about future resale value? If you remodel, add a pool, renovate a kitchen, add solar panels, etc. don't you think about resale value? When you buy a car to use, don't you at least think about future resale value? I realize there's a saying you lose 50% when you drive a new car off the lot, but you actually lose 50% in about 4 years, and if you don't like that you can always lease...

If I buy Riviera direct today, I lose 35%-40% in 10 days from now. So, why bury the head in the sand and make an emotional decision? At least "worry about it" before you make a decision. Some of these contracts cost more than a new car!

 

[Genie+]

A PP literally said that if you buy RIV direct, you should plan to never sell it. That is generally the plan for other timeshare companies because they are essentially worthless on the resale market. DVC is not like that, including RIV.

We can only interpret what we’ve seen when deciding what DVC best fits our personal intentions.

I wouldn’t say RIV is only for people planning to never sell. I will say there’s still a distinction. People not planning to sell don’t have to concern themselves about restrictions. Doesn’t really apply to them.

I’m currently answering DVC questions for my niece who is a newlywed ready to start a family. My advice is RIV restrictions matter less the longer you’re likely to use it. If your plan is high likelihood to use it 30+ years, don’t be distracted by restrictions because you’ll be getting 100% full use that whole looooong time. Restrictions don’t apply to you. Definitely check out the resorts. Then weigh pros/cons how you see fit. As a Swolphin fan she’s likely to give points for skyliner, like the compact resort and longer contract, and just find RIV more appealing overall. Slightly higher dues currently not enough to dismiss this option. Speculative resale value for the year 2060 or beyond definitely not enough to dismiss this option.

For myself it was different. We don’t plan using DVC much past 20 years. Our pros/cons were different. We already own at BWV so VGF gained points for location to the other area we love. That alone was not enough to decide though. If RIV really drew us in, we could’ve just sold BW and replaced with RIV. Then pick up an MK resale or Poly2. But RIV also lost points for resale value speculation and the higher likelihood it would recoup less money in our expected exit timeframe. This part is all speculation so I could be wrong.

It’s not that I think RIV will hit $0. More that the gap between VGF and RIV resale value could likely grow and be that way during our sell window. At this stage we don’t know how far DVD is willing to go in the separation between direct and resale. Would they care if resale prices on restricted take a tumble in 10 or 20 years? I don’t know. All things considered VGF seemed more reliable, that the location and tradability should help keep value and demand up. In the meantime I’m enjoying a fabulous resort with low dues. Works for me!

 

[Mikey15]

If I buy Riviera direct today, I lose 35%-40% in 10 days from now. So, why bury the head in the sand and make an emotional decision? At least "worry about it" before you make a decision. Some of these contracts cost more than a new car!

I don’t believe the data supports Riviera losing anywhere near 30-40% in resale value compared to the actual prices paid for direct points.

The restrictions do cut both ways. If I were shopping for resale points of a non-Riv resort, I couldn’t use those points to book Riv. This clearly helps Riv’s value somewhat.

 

[pianomanzano]

I'm not fond of that advice. Why not worry about resale prices? Do you think the developer doesn't look at resale prices? They actually look at every sale, literally...

When you buy a home to use, don't you think about future resale value? If you remodel, add a pool, renovate a kitchen, add solar panels, etc. don't you think about resale value? When you buy a car to use, don't you at least think about future resale value? I realize there's a saying you lose 50% when you drive a new car off the lot, but you actually lose 50% in about 4 years, and if you don't like that you can always lease...

If I buy Riviera direct today, I lose 35%-40% in 10 days from now. So, why bury the head in the sand and make an emotional decision? At least "worry about it" before you make a decision. Some of these contracts cost more than a new car!

I bought my DVC contracts to keep and use for the length of the contract, not to rent out, not to flip, not to sell (and if I do sell it'll be to buy more DVC/different home resorts). So in that regard the resale price should not matter, and I think that's the point the PP was trying to make.

Equating it to a home purchase or renovations is like comparing apples and oranges. A home costs more, last longer than 20-50 years, and will (or at least is supposed) appreciate in value. There's too many things that are outside of our control that could affect the resale value with DVC, and I'm not talking about weather/climate issues, more so changes Disney themselves would make that run resale prices down to the ground (which they could pick back up in ROFR and sell at a premium, which by the way is the only reason they look at resale prices anyway). Sure, one should have an exit strategy when purchasing DVC and if it ever comes time that I need to sell these contracts because of unexpected life things, I'll be fine taking a hit or a loss as I knew these weren't investment vehicles to begin with. I personally think there's too much out there of people touting supposed benefits of DVC as making your money back or breaking even and I think those days are long gone. Maybe if you bought pre-pandemic (or around 2016-2017) when you could easily pick up contracts at $60-70/point, but I wouldn't count too much on any appreciation for those of us who picked up contracts in the last 2-3 years of ever making any profit (which we shouldn't because again they're not investments to begin with).

 

[DanCali]

I don’t believe the data supports Riviera losing anywhere near 30-40% in resale value compared to the actual prices paid for direct points.

The restrictions do cut both ways. If I were shopping for resale points of a non-Riv resort, I couldn’t use those points to book Riv. This clearly helps Riv’s value somewhat.

Don't bother looking all the listings out there with wishful asking prices that never sell. 2 out of 3 Riviera listings out there and been sitting for 60+ days unsold and some live listings are in the $120s. The actual selling prices of stuff that sells these days is probably $115-$125 especially for larger contracts (you can check recorded deeds if you'd like) so yes, some of those sellers lost quite a bit. And that's with very little supply out there since the resort is barely 3 years old. Usually, when supply goes up, and it's inevitable that it will as more original buyers sell incoming years, prices do go down....

Here's data from recent recorded deeds:

Sep 11: $38,025 for 325 points ($117)
Sep 8: $25,000 for 200 points ($125)
Sep 8: $35,750 for 286 points ($125)

 

[intamin]

Has anybody calculated a price per point on RIV with the new incentives compared to the old? With them decreasing the welcome home incentive and the buy back price for MB it seems like it’s gone up a couple dollars per point?