Fall Incentives

[Mikey15]

Don't bother looking all the listings out there with wishful asking prices that never sell. 2 out of 3 Riviera listings out there and been sitting for 60+ days unsold and some live listings are in the $120s. The actual selling prices of stuff that sells these days is probably $115-$125 especially for larger contracts (you can check recorded deeds if you'd like) so yes, some of those sellers lost quite a bit. And that's with very little supply out there since the resort is barely 3 years old. Usually, when supply goes up, and it's inevitable that it will as more original buyers sell incoming years, prices do go down....

Here's data from recent recorded deeds:

Sep 11: $38,025 for 325 points ($117)
Sep 8: $25,000 for 200 points ($125)
Sep 8: $35,750 for 286 points ($125)

ROFR thread has had some $125 and $130 as well, depending on size and how stripped it is of ‘23 UY points.

But if a stripped, non-large contract is $125, and direct is ~$170 with Magical Beginnings (i.e. stripped by the Mouse), then resale is ~73% of direct pricing. (27% depreciation)

 

[DanCali]

ROFR thread has had some $125 and $130 as well, depending on size and how stripped it is of ‘23 UY points.

But if a stripped, non-large contract is $125, and direct is ~$170 with Magical Beginnings (i.e. stripped by the Mouse), then resale is ~73% of direct pricing. (27% depreciation)

Yes, the 27% in that example is correct. And it may be 32% for a larger contract. But:

1) Did all original owners have MB, or is that a new thing? If they didn't use MB then they did have an extra year of points, but those are not really worth $22 for most (even if you rented then at that rate, you'd own taxes on the full amount).

2) As I mentioned previously, I don't think current prices mean much. It's the prices after 7-10 years that would concern me both because that's when I'd be more likely to sell and also because that's when you can expect a decent supply in the resale market (more supply = lower prices). Right now the number of sellers is still way too limited to reflect where resale prices will stabilize - not enough competition.

 

[tidefan]

The restrictions do cut both ways. If I were shopping for resale points of a non-Riv resort, I couldn’t use those points to book Riv. This clearly helps Riv’s value somewhat.

No, I can't use them at RIV, but I can use them at OKW, BCV, BWV, SSR, BRV, CCV, AKV, PVB, GFV, BLT, HHI, VB, VGC (if you could get it) and most importantly, Aulani.

Knowing what I know now... If I couldn't use my points to visit Aulani, I would not purchase them.

 

[Genie+]

No, I can't use them at RIV, but I can use them at OKW, BCV, BWV, SSR, BRV, CCV, AKV, PVB, GFV, BLT, HHI, VB, VGC (if you could get it) and most importantly, Aulani.

Knowing what I know now... If I couldn't use my points to visit Aulani, I would not purchase them.

You missed VGC Unlikely yes but possible. (Nevermind, I missed it lol)

Shoot, if I came across a few nights in post 7 month availability we might book a trip to try DL. The potential exists.

 

[Cfabar1]

If you love Riviera Riviera resale might be one of the best bargains in DVC given the length of time.

The fact that Disney is so expensive to stay at I think will also cause some of the value to be maintained, coupled with the fact it is an international landmark.

 

[Mikey15]

1) Did all original owners have MB, or is that a new thing? If they didn't use MB then they did have an extra year of points, but those are not really worth $22 for most (even if you rented then at that rate, you'd own taxes on the full amount).

The claim was the value lost in 10 days if you bought today.

MB only enters the picture to make it apples to apples with the cheaper resale transactions typically being for stripped contracts. I actually don’t think listings discount stripped contracts enough, because if you want to do a trip that first year you’re looking at paying to rent from someone else (which, yes, can approach that $20-22 if you’re trying to book Riv standard view).

If you’re buying DVC to actually use DVC, the resale is going to be a secondary consideration anyway…
If you like Riv are you going to not buy it and stay there for 5-10 years because of what the points might be worth 5-10 years from now? As others have said it’s great that resale value exists, but DVC isn’t an investment vehicle.

 

[DanCali]

If you like Riv are you going to not buy it and stay there for 5-10 years because of what the points might be worth 5-10 years from now? As others have said it’s great that resale value exists, but DVC isn’t an investment vehicle.

If there was no resale value at all, I would not be a timeshare owner at all... DVC is not doing this for charity, and I also have no desire to throw money away unnecessarily, especially based on emotional decisions. I bought direct twice because the deals they offered were relatively close to actual resale values and we did see value in paying a (relatively minor) premium for blue card and access to new resorts. But AKV and VGF have an established resale market and I don't foresee a crash in their values anytime soon. If anything, I think they will be even more desirable on the resale market after 2042.

Riviera does not yet have a real resale market (65% of listings are stale) and I anticipate it will trade a lot lower in the not so distant future. So I'm not buying it direct or resale at this point.... I do love the resort and would totally consider buying resale, but not until there is a real resale market (say around 2027). I'm not even saying a price I would pay or not pay - if I still wanted it, then I would probably pay whatever the "going price" was, but prices today are not that. Until then, I have access to it at 7 months and via waitlist, and that's actually working out ok...

 

[perchy]

No, we haven't heard that. When we hear either way, I imagine that thread will be buzzing for weeks... At this point it's pure speculation based on the general direction things seem to be headed. But maybe if sales are much slower at Riviera than anticipated internally, they will opt for a different route? (wishful thinking!)

Was Copper Creek always Copper Creek, or did it at some point during construction go by “BR2”?

I’m wondering if Poly2’s name offers any insight to restrictions or not…

 

[intamin]

Currently at RIV right now and we know we love the resort, we want to keep staying here. Do we want to stay here every single visit? Definitely not because we still like variety. Even though we’re in a 1BR right now staying in standard studios/2BRs is a must for us which isn’t always available at 7 months. It’s nearly a 20% increase on an already expensive resort for preferred.

Regarding the resale vs direct argument, if I’m paying the full amount of dues, unless it’s a small RIV resale contract I want to be able to use it at other resorts to potentially contribute towards 2BRs/GVs at other resorts including new ones. I originally considered just buying RIV resale but in the long run you are still paying the same amount of dues for those points which makes up 2/3 or more the total cost of the contract even though you got a 25-30% discount on 1/3 of the total contract cost. Going forward I doubt I’ll be buying more resale points as I already have enough SAP and if anything will consider offloading them much later down the line for Yacht Club

 

[PolyRob]

Was Copper Creek always Copper Creek, or did it at some point during construction go by “BR2”?

I’m wondering if Poly2’s name offers any insight to restrictions or not…

I think we're just saying Poly 2, Poly Tower, PVB2, etc interchangeably. We don't have any actual information.

The Villas at Disney's Wilderness Lodge was renamed to Boulder Ridge Villas at Disney's Wilderness Lodge when Copper Creek Villas & Cabins at Disney's Wilderness Lodge official name was announced.

 

[D-Trick]

The Villas at Disney's Wilderness Lodge was renamed to Boulder Ridge Villas at Disney's Wilderness Lodge when Copper Creek Villas & Cabins at Disney's Wilderness Lodge official name was announced.

I believe the question was if the disboards used BRV2 (or some variation) before the name Copper Creek was officially announced.

 

[pianomanzano]

If you love Riviera Riviera resale might be one of the best bargains in DVC given the length of time.

The fact that Disney is so expensive to stay at I think will also cause some of the value to be maintained, coupled with the fact it is an international landmark.

Yup, picked up a 100pt loaded resale contract there to complement and/or “free up” our RIV direct points. Prior to grabbing this contract, our RIV direct points felt like resale ones because we felt compelled to only use them at RIV since we couldn't use our other resale points there. We know we want to stay in a 1BR there at least every 3 years so this frees up those direct points (or complements them for bigger accommodations, such as the 2BR we stayed in over the summer for my daughter's 1st birthday). We're fine with the restrictions and got a relatively good deal on the points.

 

[Sandisw]

If there was no resale value at all, I would not be a timeshare owner at all... DVC is not doing this for charity, and I also have no desire to throw money away unnecessarily, especially based on emotional decisions. I bought direct twice because the deals they offered were relatively close to actual resale values and we did see value in paying a (relatively minor) premium for blue card and access to new resorts. But AKV and VGF have an established resale market and I don't foresee a crash in their values anytime soon. If anything, I think they will be even more desirable on the resale market after 2042.

Riviera does not yet have a real resale market (65% of listings are stale) and I anticipate it will trade a lot lower in the not so distant future. So I'm not buying it direct or resale at this point.... I do love the resort and would totally consider buying resale, but not until there is a real resale market (say around 2027). I'm not even saying a price I would pay or not pay - if I still wanted it, then I would probably pay whatever the "going price" was, but prices today are not that. Until then, I have access to it at 7 months and via waitlist, and that's actually working out ok...

I’d say this is where we differ. I believe that people buying should not assume any level of resale value and determine how long one might own to make it worth it over continuing to visit Disney like you would…whether that be cash, renting, or offsite,

If one needs or wants a certain return, even with DVC, I do think one may be disappointed because there are so many variables that can impact it,

We did buy RIV resale in 2021 for $152/point. It was well worth it because RiV is our top resort, and it represented a $6k savings over direct.

I do agree with you though that it is too early to see where RIV…or any of the future restricted resorts..will settle..once it’s sold out and direct pricing is at the “sold out” level.

If direct is $250 and resale is $150, will there be people who buy it? My guess is yes for those wanting home resort advantage.

With VGFs base price being raised, and it’s incentives reduced, I think we will see it resale value change to reflect that difference.

But, as long as the difference between direct and resale for RIV remains where it is…not large enough to give up all the direct advantages, they will stagnate…except for those who might buy as a supplement to what they own…which is what we did.

It will be interesting to see how the next 6 weeks of sales go with these new offers!

 

[intamin]

Yup, picked up a 100pt loaded resale contract there to complement and/or “free up” our RIV direct points. Prior to grabbing this contract, our RIV direct points felt like resale ones because we felt compelled to only use them at RIV since we couldn't use our other resale points there. We know we want to stay in a 1BR there at least every 3 years so this frees up those direct points (or complements them for bigger accommodations, such as the 2BR we stayed in over the summer for my daughter's 1st birthday). We're fine with the restrictions and got a relatively good deal on the points.

This is pretty much the same strategy I’d use lol. I may pick up another 50-100 resale RIV down the line but that’s about it. Strip the resale contract of all points in one go and spare the direct RIV points.

 

[Sandisw]

Was Copper Creek always Copper Creek, or did it at some point during construction go by “BR2”?

I’m wondering if Poly2’s name offers any insight to restrictions or not…

DVD has never named the project. The Poly tower or Poly2 references are names given by posters here.

All DVD has every said is that Poly Village Resort will be getting more DVC villas. The name for CCV was not announced until months later.

 

[pianomanzano]

It will be interesting to see how the next 6 weeks of sales go with these new offers!

Are you adding??

 

[Sandisw]

Are you adding??

The discount for 100 points isn’t large enough to push me there..which I am glad about! But, I do have until end of October and with my Dec UY, it could change! Lol

 

[tidefan]

I’d say this is where we differ. I believe that people buying should not assume any level of resale value and determine how long one might own to make it worth it over continuing to visit Disney like you would…whether that be cash, renting, or offsite,

While I agree in part with this, I think that a big portion of DVC's appeal is that if you "had to get out" for whatever reason, having a reasonable resale market gives you insurance in form of an exit strategy. If DVC were like numerous other timeshares that lose a large portion of your value, then I think a lot of people would have much more hesitancy upon purchase.

That said, if you don't have to have a major capital influx at some point, you could just rent points (at a profit, which granted, is taxable), which is another added dimension to DVC that many other timeshares just don't have.

 

[intamin]

The discount for 100 points isn’t large enough to push me there..which I am glad about! But, I do have until end of October and with my Dec UY, it could change! Lol

I saw @pkrieger2287 saying on FB that the incentives for Riviera for fall were better than the ones for summer. Is this the case for 150 pts? With the decrease in welcome home promotion and the drop in price for Magical Beginnings I’m not seeing how this is possible?

 

[DanCali]

I’d say this is where we differ. I believe that people buying should not assume any level of resale value and determine how long one might own to make it worth it over continuing to visit Disney like you would…whether that be cash, renting, or offsite,

But assumptions about resale value are a very big factor in determining a break even point, or the economics of a purchase decision. If you do the simple calculation (which ignores things like opportunity cost, and inflation):

When do I "break even" if I assume zero resale value and I save $8/point/year vs. rental rates
(the answer may be 15-20 years for a $120-$160/pt upfront purchase)

that's a valid question, but also represents a "worst case" scenario. There's nothing wrong with a conservative calculation but the reality is that you break even much sooner since there is a residual value after 15-20 years, unless it's a 2042 resort.

So that can also lead to flawed decisions... What if someone has a 10 year horizon? Should they not buy? In the extreme (maybe unrealistic) assumption that you recover 100% of your upfront cost after 10 years, then buying becomes a no-brainer. So it certainly makes an impact on the outcome of the decision.

This type of question can also lead to flawed decisions in cases like subsidized vs unsubsidized dues. As a simple example - if you pay $30/pt upfront more for the subsidized contract and the subsidy saves you $3/pt/year you can say "it takes 10 years to break even - that's too long for me, so I'm not buying subsidized". But what if in 10 years, you can still sell the subsidized contract for $30/pt more than the unsubsidized one? Does that impact your choice?