Actual Re-sale Savings

[RoseGold]

Who would by a timeshare for one year when you can buy a different resort for say $100 a point and get another 25 years?

Because they want one year, not 25 years. There has always been a brisk market for the starter contracts that are cheaper. Combine that with BC/BW charts, and their crazy cash rates, and they will keep up.

 

[Sandisw]

You bear those same risks with a long-term contract like Riviera.

And I’m not saying sell your 2042 contracts in 2041. I’m more just saying that because of the upward pressure of cheaper upfront prices and ROFR, 2042 contracts are likely going to be more expensive on a per year basis than a 2070 contract. And that difference is likely to increase exponentially, at least it has so far.

My basic premise is that I think it’s unfair to say RIV is definitely a better long-term value than BCV Or BWV. History doesn’t support that.

Actually, the rules regarding BVTC would prevent them removing RIV as easily as it would the 2042 resorts close to their expiration.

Ii guess we will agree to disagree because in 19 years and 5 months, those resorts won’t exist and RIV will so it’s a better investment. and by the time we get to 5 years left, I guarantee that RIV resale will be worth more those two resorts because their will be more buyers for that resort than they will for the 2042s

 

[Sandisw]

Because they want one year, not 25 years. There has always been a brisk market for the starter contracts that are cheaper. Combine that with BC/BW charts, and their crazy cash rates, and they will keep up.

But the process would be a lot with no guarantee you would even be able to use it if rooms are gone at that point.

Sorry it doesn’t make sense. In that case, someone would simply rent instead.

If that was the case, we would hear of a a lot more people doing it now when things are doing well.

 

[havoc315]

You have some fundamental misunderstandings...

My position is that:

1. Longer contracts probably only save money if you intend to never sell and let the contract expire.

No. False. Longer contracts save money because you have the choice to re-sell at significant vale, or continue using.

If I want vacation lodging through 2042 -- If I buy a 2060ish contract, I can keep it until 2042 and then re-sell at significant value. If I buy a 2042 contract, it is worthless in 2042.
If I want vacation lodging through 2060 -- if I buy a 2060 contract, I keep it until expiration. If I buy a 2042 contract, then I have to ALSO buy another contract in 2042.
Either way, it's cheaper to buy the longer contract.

1. Even then, dues matter more than the price per point. Aulani subsidized is going to be cheaper than Riviera despite shorter length.

The difference in dues outweighs the tiny difference in contract length. Aulani has another 39 years. Riviera has 47 more years. Riviera is only 20% longer than Aulani. Riviera is 147% longer than 2042 contracts. Not comparable situations.

1. History suggests an inverse relationship between price and years left. BCV cheapest listing today is $6.36 per point per year left resale while Riviera is $2.67 resale. That is what I am getting at. BCV will likely be reselling for a higher price per point per year left in 2041 than Riviera will be.

No.
So let's illustrate -- It's January 2041, there are exactly 12 months until expiration.
There is a BCV contract is 100 points left on it.

Now, let's use 2022 prices. (there will be inflation... dues, rental rates, rack rates, will all be higher in 2041, but we use the 2022 prices as baseline).
So the buyer of that BCV contract will need to pay dues -- $753 in dues for that 100 point contract.
They will also have to pay closing costs -- $1,000.

So if they got the contract immediately, for "$0 per point" -- It would still cost them $17.53 per point.

But wait... the contract still has to go through ROFR. So they won't get it in January, they won't get it until March. At which point, they only have a 9 month window with which to book rooms. Everything might already be booked up by the time their contract clears ROFR!

But ok... let's say they are willing to take that risk. It's January 2041. They can rent points for $22 per point, at the 11 month window. Or they can buy points, that they won't be able to use until about 9 months. But let's say they are willing to buy points to save money vs renting. So they are willing to pay a total of $20 per point.
But... they are already paying $17.53 in dues and closing costs, per point. Meaning, maybe they would be willing to pay the seller ..... $2.50 per point.

So yes... in 2041, using current pricing, maybe that 100 point BCV contract could be sold for a grand total of $250. But even that's unlikely.

And the point is, as of January 31, 2042, the BCV contract becomes worthless. And it's really virtually worthless for the months leading up to that. And value will decline as we get closer.

There is absolutely no question that in 2037, the resale value of a 2060-2070 resort will be MUCH higher than a 2042 resort that only has 4 years left.

1. So, in theory, selling BCV towards the end of the contract and buying another resale at a new resort with a lower price per point per year left would be the best financial move.

No... that's actually the most expensive option.

The very rough math -- A 100 point contract, BCV until 2042, then Riviera until 2070:
BCV - then buying RIviera in 2042 -- approximate total cost --$70,000
Buying RIviera now and keeping until 2070: Approximately $50,000

 

[Ruttangel]

Remember that at BWV in Season D you will only need 92pts for a STD studio and 125 pts at RIV, so only staying at these resorts in resale means 33pts in extra dues every year for 20 years (41pt difference for preferred rooms) There's another $5.5k saved.

 

[Jlo85]

Actually, the rules regarding BVTC would prevent them removing RIV as easily as it would the 2042 resorts close to their expiration.

Ii guess we will agree to disagree because in 19 years and 5 months, those resorts won’t exist and RIV will so it’s a better investment. and by the time we get to 5 years left, I guarantee that RIV resale will be worth more those two resorts because their will be more buyers for that resort than they will for the 2042s

1. I think in general rule changes are unlikely to be applied retroactively. Disney faces legal ramifications for changes.
2. Riviera may not appreciate like BCV or BWV due to the restrictions. If I assume BCV / BWV continue to grow at a 11% rate and RIV grows at a 5% rate, RIV won’t sell for more per point resale until 2035. My gut says that’s probably right.

 

[Paul Stupin]

You bear those same risks with a long-term contract like Riviera.

And I’m not saying sell your 2042 contracts in 2041. I’m more just saying that because of the upward pressure of cheaper upfront prices and ROFR, 2042 contracts are likely going to be more expensive on a per year basis than a 2070 contract. And that difference is likely to increase exponentially as we get closer to expiration, at least it has so far.

My basic premise is that I think it’s unfair to say RIV is definitely a better long-term value than BCV Or BWV. History doesn’t support that.

You use alot of phrases like “history suggests,” “history doesn’t support that,” and wildly over the top price and inflation projections to predict buyer behavior which has no precedent in DVC history. It’s impossible to come up with accurate price or sales data as a resort comes within a few years of expiration because it has never happened. There’s zero history to support your argument, unless you’re relying on hard facts and figures from resorts whose expiration dates have already passed.

Last time I looked they don’t exist.

 

[havoc315]

Because they want one year, not 25 years. There has always been a brisk market for the starter contracts that are cheaper. Combine that with BC/BW charts, and their crazy cash rates, and they will keep up.

Ok...... Tell me, how much would you be willing to pay for a 100 point contract --- where the points won't even be deposited into your account until you're already in the 7 month window. Where you will still need to pay dues of about $7.50 per point, and where you will have to pay closing costs of $1,000.

So even if the points were given to you at a cost of $0 per point, you would still have to pay about $17.50 per point, for points that you can't even use until you're in the 7 month window at BCV?

You want only 1 year. But since you're already going to be in the 7 month window, you probably won't even be able to use the points at BCV. And you're going to have to pay $17.50 per point PLUS the purchase price. So honest question, how much would you be willing to pay for that 100 point contract at that point?

(We are using 2022 dollars. Yes, it's possible that rental rates are $40 per point by then... in which case closing costs may be $2,000, and dues may be $15 per point... so it all evens out).

 

[RoseGold]

Ok...... Tell me, how much would you be willing to pay for a 100 point contract --- where the points won't even be deposited into your account until you're already in the 7 month window. Where you will still need to pay dues of about $7.50 per point, and where you will have to pay closing costs of $1,000.

Like all DVC, BC has an actual comparison point, and that's cash BC rooms. The math has to keep up with that.

1 year is an extreme example, but this makes a lot of sense to me even with very little left on the contract. Plenty of people don't want to commit for decades and would be fine with just BC. Obviously, there is a point at which BC declines, but IMO, it won't be for a while.

 

[Jlo85]

You use lot of phrases like “history suggests,” “history doesn’t support that,” and wildly over the top price and inflation projections to predict buyer behavior which has no precedent in DVC history. It’s impossible to come up with accurate price or sales data as a resort comes within a few years of expiration because it has never happened. There’s zero history to support your argument, unless you’re relying on hard facts and figures from resorts whose expiration dates have already passed.

Last time I looked they don’t exist.

This is all conjecture, but my projections are based on historic figures and not guessing. So, you can criticize me, but your logic isn't founded in any more evidence than mine.

No... that's actually the most expensive option.

The very rough math -- A 100 point contract, BCV until 2042, then Riviera until 2070:
BCV - then buying RIviera in 2042 -- approximate total cost --$70,000
Buying RIviera now and keeping until 2070: Approximately $50,000

Just using your numbers. If I choose 188 points today RIV for $39K or BCV for $36K as you said.

• My projections show than in 2035 BCV would be worth about $200 / point. Assuming Riviera appreciates at a 5% rate, Riviera resale would be $180 / point. Again, my projection is that shorter term contracts will appreciate faster due to ROFR and cheaper upfront costs.
• I could sell BCV in 2035 at $200 point ($38K) and buy Riviera at $180 / point ($34K)
• Total cost $32K not including dues vs buying Riviera direct. Savings of $7K.

 

[Sandisw]

1. I think in general rule changes are unlikely to be applied retroactively. Disney faces legal ramifications for changes.
2. Riviera may not appreciate like BCV or BWV due to the restrictions. If I assume BCV / BWV continue to grow at a 11% rate and RIV grows at a 5% rate, RIV won’t sell for more per point resale until 2035. My gut says that’s probably right.

The POS states the rules for a resort to leave BVTC. There would be no retroactive removal but removal during the last year or two.

But you are right, then don’t need to remove but simply change the home resort booking period for the 2042 to be longer than 4 months like it is now and at than the other resorts so those owners won’t be competing with other resort owners. Nothing guarantees the 11 to 7 month window. That can be what it wants and it doesn’t have to be consistent for all the resorts.

As I said, in 2012, BWV was selling in the 50s, and had been in the 70s in 2009. So there is precedent that the price on resale went down for a while before going up.

No one knows what will happen but if there is no ROfR in place, it will cause the resort price to tumble some. SSR and AKV would not be getting the price they are today if ROFR was not as active as it is.

I guess we will see in 10 to 15 years!!!

 

[havoc315]

Like all DVC, BC has an actual comparison point, and that's cash BC rooms. The math has to keep up with that.

1 year is an extreme example, but this makes a lot of sense to me even with very little left on the contract. Plenty of people don't want to commit for decades and would be fine with just BC. Obviously, there is a point at which BC declines, but IMO, it won't be for a while.

Yes...... but in 2041, you can book a cash room with certainty. Buy those BCV points, wait for ROFR, and there is no guarantee you'd even get a cash room. Within the 7 month window, you'd have no advantage buying those BCV points over buying another resort. And if you are paying closing costs, just for a 1-time trip, a cash room will be cheaper unless you were getting your points for free.

Yes.... we can't say *exactly* when 2042 contract values start to decline. But we can say they will be nearly worthless by the time 2040-2041 rolls around. And they likely won't drop from $170 to $0 overnight. So there will be a stretch where they are declining.
It's possible we don't see that decline really start until 2032, it's possible we start seeing a gradual decline very soon.
Moving away from certainty towards a more educated guess -- I'd speculate that 2042 resort prices are at their peaks around now. They will remain mostly steady over the next 3-5 years, then start gradually declining, and the decline will speed up in the 2030's. By 2035, you will see a huge difference in re-sale price between 2042 resorts and 2060+ resorts. (This is just an educated guess).

 

[BeachClub2014]

My projections show than in 2035 BCV would be worth about $200 / point. Assuming Riviera appreciates at a 5% rate, Riviera resale would be $180 / point. Again, my projection is that shorter term contracts will appreciate faster due to ROFR and cheaper upfront costs.

I have a 150-point BCV contract that I'm willing to let go of today for a paltry $180 per point, with a delayed 2035 closing date. That's a 10% discount from the $200 projection.

 

[pianomanzano]

This is all conjecture, but my projections are based on historic figures and not guessing. So, you can criticize me, but your logic isn't founded in any more evidence than mine.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but your projects are based historic figures were taken from 2017-2021, a time when DVC resale experienced growth not seen over the life of the product. Prices sat fairly constant between the previous 15 years. So to suggest that resale will see continued unprecedented growth for the duration of the contract at a time when DVC is ramping up ways to differentiate and lessen the appeal of resale, isn’t much more logical than those who are disagreeing with you.

Personally I think there’s too many external factors to consider to determine and/or agree on resale values in the future. They could stop all trading, create tiers of trading, sell off a resort, etc. There’s only a couple constants here that we can all agree on: dues will always go up, don’t buy for the perks, and this isn’t an investment at least not in the financial sense but one for family time (the most important commodity of all!).

 

[Paul Stupin]

This is all conjecture, but my projections are based on historic figures and not guessing. So, you can criticize me, but your logic isn't founded in any more evidence than mine.



Just using your numbers. If I choose 188 points today RIV for $39K or BCV for $36K as you said.

• My projections show than in 2035 BCV would be worth about $200 / point. Assuming Riviera appreciates at a 5% rate, Riviera resale would be $180 / point. Again, my projection is that shorter term contracts will appreciate faster due to ROFR and cheaper upfront costs.
• I could sell BCV in 2035 at $200 point ($38K) and buy Riviera at $180 / point ($34K)
• Total cost $32K not including dues vs buying Riviera direct. Savings of $7K.

There you go again with another unfounded phrase, “my projections are based on historic figures and not guessing.” But there are no figures to support contract pricing projections within a decade, five years, four years, or one year of a DVC resort’s expiration date because, as you know, it’s never happened. Ever. There’s no history to support your argument. You’re omitting this key element, and just assuming that past pricing data won’t be affected by it. And you know what they say about assuming, right?

My logic is that a resort’s looming expiration date will affect its contract’s pricing. Your logic is that it won’t. But thank you for admitting that ”your logic isn’t founded in any more evidence than mine.”

So you’re admitting you have no real evidence, yet continuing to hide behind “historic figures” you admit aren’t applicable. A little common sense please!

 

[Paul Stupin]

Yes...... but in 2041, you can book a cash room with certainty. Buy those BCV points, wait for ROFR, and there is no guarantee you'd even get a cash room. Within the 7 month window, you'd have no advantage buying those BCV points over buying another resort. And if you are paying closing costs, just for a 1-time trip, a cash room will be cheaper unless you were getting your points for free.

Yes.... we can't say *exactly* when 2042 contract values start to decline. But we can say they will be nearly worthless by the time 2040-2041 rolls around. And they likely won't drop from $170 to $0 overnight. So there will be a stretch where they are declining.
It's possible we don't see that decline really start until 2032, it's possible we start seeing a gradual decline very soon.
Moving away from certainty towards a more educated guess -- I'd speculate that 2042 resort prices are at their peaks around now. They will remain mostly steady over the next 3-5 years, then start gradually declining, and the decline will speed up in the 2030's. By 2035, you will see a huge difference in re-sale price between 2042 resorts and 2060+ resorts. (This is just an educated guess).

This makes alot of sense to me.

 

[Nursemanit]

The simple back of a cocktail napkin system is

Price paid divided by (Total points per year x Reasonable year's left) - to get price per point remaining on contract.

So around 7.75 for BWV and 4 for RR in my case.

Then add in MF per point

Then you factor in points per your desired vacation period such as 7 days in Sept. This factors in the the point chart differences. Multiply by the (price you paid + MF)

Compare the cost per day to the usual discounted Cash rate.

I stay at BWV for $30 less than Dolphin at the Nurse discount and 200 less than the usual Sept BW discount.

I stay at RR for almost 400 less a night than best cash rate

Yes there is opportunity cost and TVM but I don't think that is useful for vacation calculations.

 

[havoc315]

This is all conjecture, but my projections are based on historic figures and not guessing. So, you can criticize me, but your logic isn't founded in any more evidence than mine.



Just using your numbers. If I choose 188 points today RIV for $39K or BCV for $36K as you said.

• My projections show than in 2035 BCV would be worth about $200 / point.

No. Your projections are irrational. So are you saying it will sell for $200 per point using 2022 dollars? In other words, you believe it will appreciate per year OVER inflation?

So let's take that $200 per point number. A 100 point contract -- Would any rational buyer pay $20,000 for it. They would really pay $21,000, with closing costs. And 6 years worth of dues -- So they would really be paying $25,500 --- They would be paying $42.50 per point per year!!!
Compared to rental rates of $17 to $22 per point.

Ahhh, but let's say that point rentals increase just as much as your projected --- That would still only place point rental rates in the $30 per point range. Either way, nobody is paying $42.50 per point per year in 2035.

And that's the crux --- Anyone who wants to stay at Beach Club has 3 choices -- Cash rooms, rent points, buy points. Those prices remain related.
No point in buying points if they end up costs far more than cash rooms. Sure, maybe people would pay a little more than point rental for the control, but no rational buyer is going to pay twice as much for point purchase than renting points.

• Assuming Riviera appreciates at a 5% rate, Riviera resale would be $180 / point.

Let's use common sense -- It's 2035 --- You really think people would pay $200 for 6 years of vacations at Beach Club but only pay $180 for 34 years worth of vacations at Riviera??
Price per point per year:
You honestly believe in 2035, people will pay $33 per point per year for Beach Club, but only pay $5 per point per year for Riviera?

Tell me, is the rack rate for Beach Club SEVEN TIMES higher than Riviera? No. It's insane to conclude that come 2035, people will be willing to pay 700% more for Beach Club than for Riviera.

• Again, my projection is that shorter term contracts will appreciate faster due to ROFR and cheaper upfront costs.
• I could sell BCV in 2035 at $200 point ($38K) and buy Riviera at $180 / point ($34K)

Might as well say you will sell BCV for $1 million and buy Riviera for $1... your projections are fantasy land.

More likely? You will sell BCV for $50 to $100 per point ($8 to $16 per point per year), and buy Riviera for $200 to $250 per point ($6 to $7 per point per year).

• Total cost $32K not including dues vs buying Riviera direct. Savings of $7K.

 

[Jlo85]

No. Your projections are irrational. So are you saying it will sell for $200 per point using 2022 dollars? In other words, you believe it will appreciate per year OVER inflation?

So let's take that $200 per point number. A 100 point contract -- Would any rational buyer pay $20,000 for it. They would really pay $21,000, with closing costs. And 6 years worth of dues -- So they would really be paying $25,500 --- They would be paying $42.50 per point per year!!!
Compared to rental rates of $17 to $22 per point.

Ahhh, but let's say that point rentals increase just as much as your projected --- That would still only place point rental rates in the $30 per point range. Either way, nobody is paying $42.50 per point per year in 2035.

And that's the crux --- Anyone who wants to stay at Beach Club has 3 choices -- Cash rooms, rent points, buy points. Those prices remain related.
No point in buying points if they end up costs far more than cash rooms. Sure, maybe people would pay a little more than point rental for the control, but no rational buyer is going to pay twice as much for point purchase than renting points.





Let's use common sense -- It's 2035 --- You really think people would pay $200 for 6 years of vacations at Beach Club but only pay $180 for 34 years worth of vacations at Riviera??
Price per point per year:
You honestly believe in 2035, people will pay $33 per point per year for Beach Club, but only pay $5 per point per year for Riviera?

Tell me, is the rack rate for Beach Club SEVEN TIMES higher than Riviera? No. It's insane to conclude that come 2035, people will be willing to pay 700% more for Beach Club than for Riviera.





Might as well say you will sell BCV for $1 million and buy Riviera for $1... your projections are fantasy land.

More likely? You will sell BCV for $50 to $100 per point ($8 to $16 per point per year), and buy Riviera for $200 to $250 per point ($6 to $7 per point per year).

People are paying almost 50% over Riviera resale today for BWV or BCV. Tell me why you think that will be less likely in 2035? I think we on this forum think contract expiration is a big deal, but a lot of buyers clearly don’t. And Disney will prop-up the value towards the end of the contract anyways.

Also, I think a better question is would Disney allow a contract to lose all of it's value? And my perspective is no. ROFR will prop up the price. Even if there is just a year one left.

 

[havoc315]

People are paying almost 50% over Riviera resale today for BWV or BCV. Tell me why you think that will be less likely in 2035?

You can't tell the difference between 50% and 700%?!

By your logic, that people are willing to pay 700% more for Beach Club, then BCV should be priced at about $600 right now... or Riviera should be about $40 per point right now.

I think we on this forum think contract expiration is a big deal, but a lot of buyers clearly don’t.

Good luck finding a sucker who is willing to pay $10,000 per night for Beach Club by buying your points instead of paying $700 per night for a cash room.