Actual Re-sale Savings

[Jlo85]

You can't tell the difference between 50% and 700%?!

By your logic, that people are willing to pay 700% more for Beach Club, then BCV should be priced at about $600 right now... or Riviera should be about $40 per point right now.




Good luck finding a sucker who is willing to pay $10,000 per night for Beach Club by buying your points instead of paying $700 per night for a cash room.

Lol - according to the spring economical blog, Beach Club is selling for $189 point or 9.53 per point/year. Riviera is $147 or 3.13 per point/year. That is a 28% increase per point and 300% increase per year. Why do you think that came to be? Why do you think that it would be any different in 2035? My position is that the per point/year will increase exponentially as we get closer to expiration. That is what it has done so far.

 

[Sandisw]

People are paying almost 50% over Riviera resale today for BWV or BCV. Tell me why you think that will be less likely in 2035? I think we on this forum think contract expiration is a big deal, but a lot of buyers clearly don’t. And Disney will prop-up the value towards the end of the contract anyways.

The average price for RIV has been in the $130's to $140s. There have been a few outliers, but the bulk have been in that range...granted their have not been too many and there is no ROFR. So people are not paying 50% more for BWV/BCV, then RIV...

But, there is certainly a big difference that people might not care about expiration when there is at least 20 years left, vs. their being one when there is 5. Also, the incentives at RIV right now make going direct for that resort a better option, so the demand for resale may simply not be there yet given that direct gives you so much more.

When RIV is sold out and DVD is charging $245 for it like they are for BCV, then you may see the numbers closer.

Do you really believe that If people were getting BCV direct from Disney at RIV's prices, people would be paying what they are on the resale market for it? Look at what happened to VGF resale when DVD came out with a $207 base price, down from $255 sold out price...contracts went down and are still down from a year ago. A year ago, people were paying in the $180s...now paying in the $160's, to $170's...no guarantee things go up if DVD changes up tactics.

I will be shocked to see Disney continue to prop up the value of the 2042 resorts once there is less than 10 years left resorts because they have no reason to worry about resale price. They get that building back for free come 2042...what reason would they have to spend money to buy back points at a place that will no longer exist?

Of course, the biggest factor for buyers is and has always been choosing a resort they want, and if there isn't one particular, choosing one that they will be content with, expiration or not.

BCV has always been popular due to its location and why people pay more for it than BWV, BRV, and OKW on the resale market even with the same expiration. But, if DVD continues with the resale restrictions, and by 2035, there are 5 or 6 resorts not available to resale buyers, the whole market could look different and the entire aspect of an appreciating resale value may indeed slow down or go away. That is why some owners who have been around for a long time take issue with the restrictions because it will depress the market.

 

[havoc315]

Lol - according to the spring economical blog, Beach Club is selling for $189 point or 9.53 per point/year. Riviera is $147 or 3.13 per point/year. That is a 28% increase per point and 300% increase per year. Why do you think that came to be? Why do you think that it would be any different in 2035?

You're the one saying it will be difference in 2035 -- You're more than doubling it!!!!!

But.... now here is the reason for the difference -- If you understand opportunity cost, the time value of money -- A widget is more valuable in your hand today, than a widget 40 years from now.

So it's not that Riviera is "only" $3.13 per point per year in value, spread evenly over 47 more years.
It's more like -- The 2023 points are worth $20 -- (which is a provable fact.. I can rent out by 2023 points for $20). The 2025 points are worth $16... the 2030 points are worth $12... the 2040 points are worth $7... the 2050 points are worth $3... the 2060 points are worth $1....

The 2023 points for Beach Club may indeed be more valuable than Riviera points -- But not 300% more valuable. (You can't rent them out for $60 per point... but maybe you can rent them out for $22 per point).

There is zero rationale to believe that in 2035, people will be willing to pay 5-6x the rack rate of Beach Club in order to own points.

My position is that the per point/year will increase exponentially as we get closer to expiration. That is what it has done so far.

So... given the choice of renting points for $20 per point, or buying the points for $60 per point, it's your position that plenty of people will be willing to buy at triple the price of renting. (But only for Beach Club... not for Riviera).

That's really quite a leap.

 

[havoc315]

I will be shocked to see Disney continue to prop up the value of the 2042 resorts once there is less than 10 years left resorts because they have no reason to worry about resale price. They get that building back for free come 2042...what reason would they have to spend money to buy back points at a place that will no longer exist?

I actually think they will continue ROFR... to essentially take back much of the building before January 2042...... But they will do it for pennies.
Something like, in 2040 --- "Turn in your 2042 points back to Disney early, and Disney will give you a $15 incentive towards your next DVC purchase."

Or they will simply make it easy, "instantly sell your points back to Disney for $12 per point!"

By 2040... there will be plenty of "orphaned" points and "stranded" owners -- Re-sale value may be too low to go through the trouble of re-selling. Meanwhile, you'll have plenty of older owners who are really done using their points.

 

[Paul Stupin]

People are paying almost 50% over Riviera resale today for BWV or BCV. Tell me why you think that will be less likely in 2035? I think we on this forum think contract expiration is a big deal, but a lot of buyers clearly don’t. And Disney will prop-up the value towards the end of the contract anyways.

Also, I think a better question is would Disney allow a contract to lose all of it's value? And my perspective is no. ROFR will prop up the price. Even if there is just a year one left.

“I think we on this forum think contract expiration is a big deal, but a lot of buyers clearly don’t.“
It’s one thing not to worry about a contract expiring in 20 years. But it’s an entirely different universe when the expiration date is 5 years or less away. Again, meaningless conjecture on your part.
“And Disney will prop-up the value towards the end of the contract anyways.”
Please reference any historical examples for Disney propping up contract prices in the final years of a DVC resort’s expiration. Otherwise, just more meaningless conjecture.
“ ROFR will prop up the price. Even if there is just a year one left.”
Please reference historical examples of Disney using ROFR in this fashion. Yes, just more meaningless conjecture.

So you’re abandoning your made up history and now grasping at straws with zero factual basis. You’re also not doing less informed resale buyers, who might be considering a DVC Epcot area resort purchase, any favors either.

Expressing an opinion is always worthwhile, even if a majority doesn’t agree with you. But to hide behind misleading data to give said opinion an aura of legitimacy is not a good thing.

 

[Sandisw]

I actually think they will continue ROFR... to essentially take back much of the building before January 2042...... But they will do it for pennies.
Something like, in 2040 --- "Turn in your 2042 points back to Disney early, and Disney will give you a $15 incentive towards your next DVC purchase."

Or they will simply make it easy, "instantly sell your points back to Disney for $12 per point!"

By 2040... there will be plenty of "orphaned" points and "stranded" owners -- Re-sale value may be too low to go through the trouble of re-selling. Meanwhile, you'll have plenty of older owners who are really done using their points.

I am referring to real ROFR that keeps the price from plummeting...not offering to buy it back....but remember, if an owner stops paying dues, DVC gets to lock the account, and then use those points to rent rooms for cash to cover them...so, again, they have a way to get them without paying for them in anyway.

That is why you may see owners in the last 5 years decide its easier to give it away to get out of the dues payments, then rent or use....just to be out from under which if that happens, prices will plummet....

 

[Jlo85]

“I think we on this forum think contract expiration is a big deal, but a lot of buyers clearly don’t.“
It’s one thing not to worry about a contract expiring in 20 years. But it’s an entirely different universe when the expiration date is 5 years or less away. Again, meaningless conjecture on your part.
“And Disney will prop-up the value towards the end of the contract anyways.”
Please reference any historical examples for Disney propping up contract prices in the final years of a DVC resort’s expiration. Otherwise, just more meaningless conjecture.
“ ROFR will prop up the price. Even if there is just a year one left.”
Please reference historical examples of Disney using ROFR in this fashion. Yes, just more meaningless conjecture.

So you’re abandoning your made up history and now grasping at straws with zero factual basis. You’re also not doing less informed resale buyers, who might be considering a DVC Epcot area resort purchase, any favors either.

Expressing an opinion is always worthwhile, even if a majority doesn’t agree with you. But to hide behind misleading data to give said opinion an aura of legitimacy is not a good thing.

Lol - the data is that most resale buyers have been able to sell for a profit. Which basically renders any analysis of 'long-term savings' pointless. If I assume I can sell my contract for more later, I'm basically out dues and that's it. And I may make a little profit.

All of this is conjecture? This is uncharted territory. But I love how I'm the bad guy, but everyone else has so much confidence

 

[Paul Stupin]

Lol - the data is that most resale buyers have been able to sell for a profit. Which basically renders any analysis of 'long-term savings' pointless. If I assume I can sell my contract for more later, I'm basically out dues and that's it. And I may make a little profit.

All of this is conjecture? This is uncharted territory. But I love how I'm the bad guy, but everyone else has so much confidence

You're not the bad guy, you're just hiding behind inapplicable data, and treating it as unassailable. So if this is all uncharted territory, as we are all aware, it really makes no sense to keep referencing historical projections to support theories about an event that has never occurred, does it?

You're realizing this, right?

 

[Jlo85]

You're not the bad guy, you're just hiding behind inapplicable data, and treating it as unassailable. So if this is all uncharted territory, as we are all aware, it really makes no sense to keep referencing historical projections to support theories about an event that has never occurred, does it?

You're realizing this, right?

I feel like the safest assumption is to assume what has happened will continue. That's why people invest in anything (stocks, houses, cars, etc). Ignoring history sounds more problematic.

 

[havoc315]

I am referring to real ROFR that keeps the price from plummeting...not offering to buy it back....but remember, if an owner stops paying dues, DVC gets to lock the account, and then use those points to rent rooms for cash to cover them...so, again, they have a way to get them without paying for them in anyway.

That is why you may see owners in the last 5 years decide its easier to give it away to get out of the dues payments, then rent or use....just to be out from under which if that happens, prices will plummet....

Absolutely correct!
Which is why they may even be able to take back points for less than peanuts...

Imagine this holographic text message appearing to a 2042 DVC owner in 2039-2041: "Relieve yourself of the burden of your DVC dues! You have the opportunity to return your points back to Disney, stop paying dues, and receive this Commemorative Mickey Mouse Pin!"

Of course, *most* active owners will be "done" long before January 31, 2042. Not like every owner can wait till that month to use their last points.
So contracts will, in reality, be ending from 2040 (with people borrowing their 2041 points) through January 31, 2042. By January 1, 2042, there will be very few owners who even still have BCV points. I'm not even sure... if you have a December use year, will you get a full allotment of points in December 2041? I assume yes, but a pretty narrow window to use those points.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I feel like the safest assumption is to assume what has happened will continue. That's why people invest in anything (stocks, houses, cars, etc). Ignoring history sounds more problematic.

A) DVC is not an investment. Big mistake to think it is.
B) "The safest assumption is to assume what has happened will continue." Now you're just being ridiculous. Blindly assuming that nothing will ever change, especially when an event which has never happened is approaching, is, historically, a remarkably ineffective strategy.

Just give it a rest.

 

[havoc315]

I feel like the safest assumption is to assume what has happened will continue. That's why people invest in anything (stocks, houses, cars, etc). Ignoring history sounds more problematic.

You're ignoring basic principles of finance.

So.... then based on your logic, it's safe to think that an expired contract for Beach Club in 2043 will still be worth $200 per point? Even though there are 0 points remaining in the contract...

You're claiming a historical lesson, for something that has never ever happened before.
It's not ignoring history, it's appreciating change that we know is coming.

Never in history has a DVC contract expired -- But we know it is going to happen.

DVC isn't an investment. It's a disposable purchase, and we know (absent some major shift) with absolute certainty that 2042 contracts become worthless as of January 31, 2042.

Imagine the history.... a child wets his bed, 3 nights per week. Does that mean he is going to wet his bed 3 times per week for the rest of his life?
Or a 40-year-old has gone to work 5 days per week for 20 years straight... does that mean you can say that he is going to keep working 5 days per week until the day he dies?

You're basically saying that the young child will wet his bed for the rest of his life, and the worker is never going to retire or die.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I'd be interested in someone calculating the entertainment value this thread has offered to the rest of us reading along...

 

[havoc315]

A) DVC is not an investment. Big mistake to think it is.
B) "The safest assumption is to assume what has happened will continue." Now you're just being ridiculous. Blindly assuming that nothing will ever change, especially when an event which has never happened is approaching, is, historically, a remarkably ineffective strategy.

Just give it a rest.

In fact --- Assuming that nothing when change, when we KNOW a major change is coming. We know the expirations are coming. His projections choose to ignore this well known fact.

 

[Paul Stupin]

You're ignoring basic principles of finance.

So.... then based on your logic, it's safe to think that an expired contract for Beach Club in 2043 will still be worth $200 per point? Even though there are 0 points remaining in the contract...

You're claiming a historical lesson, for something that has never ever happened before.
It's not ignoring history, it's appreciating change that we know is coming.

Never in history has a DVC contract expired -- But we know it is going to happen.

DVC isn't an investment. It's a disposable purchase, and we know (absent some major shift) with absolute certainty that 2042 contracts become worthless as of January 31, 2042.

Imagine the history.... a child wets his bed, 3 nights per week. Does that mean he is going to wet his bed 3 times per week for the rest of his life?
Or a 40-year-old has gone to work 5 days per week for 20 years straight... does that mean you can say that he is going to keep working 5 days per week until the day he dies?

You're basically saying that the young child will wet his bed for the rest of his life, and the worker is never going to retire or die.

Exactly. Your reasoning is crystal clear.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I'd be interested in someone calculating the entertainment value this thread has offered to the rest of us reading along...

LOL, I'm still waiting on a taker to pre-sell my BCV contract in 2035.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I'd be interested in someone calculating the entertainment value this thread has offered to the rest of us reading along...

Lol. Good point! I think it must be pretty high, perhaps even matching the irritation value arising from such a dreadfully ill conceived argument!

 

[Paul Stupin]

LOL, I'm still waiting on a taker to pre-sell my BCV contract in 2035.

Good thinking! You might be able to get $500 pp for it.

 

[Sandisw]

I feel like the safest assumption is to assume what has happened will continue. That's why people invest in anything (stocks, houses, cars, etc). Ignoring history sounds more problematic.

I agree that you can’t ignore the past but when the product is no longer the same product, one has to use caution not to assume the outcomes wont change, don’t you think?

I mean, how do you explain that VGF is selling less this year than it did a year ago on the resale market?

If DVD decides to sell BCV next year on a fire sale at $200/point, do you really think people will pay the same price resale for an inferior product? Certainly a possibility since they did it last year with BWV?

If Poly tower is announced as a new resort locking out all resale bought since 2019, including PVB owners buying there, isn’t there a chance that PVB resale price will stagnate or go down?

Since no one has bought a DVC yet with less than 10 years to go, I guess I simply don’t see how one can ignore that missing piece of data when making predictions for the future.

It’s really going to come down to the pool of buyers, just like it will for RIV and future restricted resorts.

We know the buyer pool for it is smaller because it locks you in at one resort. And that could end up depressing it’s value if not enough buyers want it with those restrictions. Since it’s the first of it’s kind, we can’t assume it’s value will rise at the same rate..even you have determined it t won’t.

Well, its pretty hard not to imagine it won’t be the same with 2042 resorts when you have less than 10 years left.

There will simply be a much smaller pool of buyers who want to pay for a contract that only has a few years left on it.

 

[pianomanzano]

Good thinking! You might be able to get $500 pp for it.

It's still a deal, considering direct would be $750/pt!