There are two sides to the "trade out" issue- while there is certainly a need for some to trade out to open up space, you have people who are buying cheap points in the resale market and then never using them at their home resort. Those actions also upset the balance of points in the system.
The full extent of any potential point balance is not possible without knowing usage numbers (which DVD does not provide). You would need to know exactly how points are being used at 11 months and at 7 months for the various resorts.
However, we can look at contract sales and see the more likely impacts.
For example, based on the deed recordation in Orange County, it appears that the maximum of about 10-12% of contracts that ever been sold by DVD have been resold. Since that includes OKW which has been around for 25+ years, gettting to 20% or even 25% resale does not seem likely. It seems that a vast majority of people do not sell their contracts.
On the other hand, using that same 12% number of resale contracts at the larger resorts-SSR, OKW and AKL, there may be as many as 3-4 Million SSR, OKW and AKL resale points out there. Those large number of points are a significant portion of the total points at smaller resorts like VGF, BCV, VWL among others.
If the people buying points at the large resorts don't ever use those points in their home resort, then the 7 month window at the smaller resorts is flooded with those points. In view of the numerous complaints on this board about room shortages at 7 months, that problem may already be occuring.
As to DVD management, while I don't agree with all the steps they have taken, it is hard to judge without knowing the real purpose of their actions.