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[Moliphino]

Somewhat related to the above posts...I have heard and read many articles about people leaving the workforce which has led to these job openings and no one to hire, leading to some of the "good" unemployment stats. The Great Resignation, for example.

My question has always been how did people just quit and stop looking for work? Was it related to pandemic stimulus checks? If companies have issue hiring entry-level positions, you would think that demographic would be the ones most needing a steady paycheck. It's very confusing to me.

Death, earlier-than-planned retirement, families who found they could get by on one income instead of both parents working and paying for childcare, etc.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Somewhat related to the above posts...I have heard and read many articles about people leaving the workforce which has led to these job openings and no one to hire, leading to some of the "good" unemployment stats. The Great Resignation, for example.

My question has always been how did people just quit and stop looking for work? Was it related to pandemic stimulus checks? If companies have issue hiring entry-level positions, you would think that demographic would be the ones most needing a steady paycheck. It's very confusing to me.

The biggest population bubble in the US is still the Baby Boomer generation. Many who were still working just decided to throw in the towl and retire during the Pandemic. The mass retirement of this generation is in my opinion the single biggest reason for employee shortages. By the way, this shortage was predicted by many economist over a decade ago. The Pandemic just sped up the process.

 

[DeeBee3]

The biggest population bubble in the US is still the Baby Boomer generation. Many who were still working just decided to throw in the towl and retire during the Pandemic. The mass retirement of this generation is in my opinion the single biggest reason for employee shortages. By the way, this shortage was predicted by many economist over a decade ago. The Pandemic just sped up the process.

But is that demographic who fills entry level jobs at fast food or grocery stores? That's what I see in my community - minimum wage jobs are severely short-handed. It also translates into corporate level, advanced education jobs where I am, but I would think there would be enough people to fill entry-level jobs, like teenagers or young adults.

 

[Moliphino]

But is that demographic who fills entry level jobs at fast food or grocery stores? That's what I see in my community - minimum wage jobs are severely short-handed. It also translates into corporate level, advanced education jobs where I am, but I would think there would be enough people to fill entry-level jobs, like teenagers or young adults.

A lot of the people in low level jobs have been able to get better jobs.

 

[RivShore]

The biggest population bubble in the US is still the Baby Boomer generation. Many who were still working just decided to throw in the towl and retire during the Pandemic. The mass retirement of this generation is in my opinion the single biggest reason for employee shortages. By the way, this shortage was predicted by many economist over a decade ago. The Pandemic just sped up the process.

All good questions and points on the posts above.
Avid, it makes sense that a big chunk of the missing workforce just said enough and retired. But you would think that we could see solid numbers on how many did that thru new SS signups, no? Have you seen any confirmed numbers on how many more than usual are receiving SS?

 

[AvidDisReader]

All good questions and points on the posts above.
Avid, it makes sense that a big chunk of the missing workforce just said enough and retired. But you would think that we could see solid numbers on how many did that thru new SS signups, no? Have you seen any confirmed numbers on how many more than usual are receiving SS?

The problem is that due to COVID, many seniors passed away. There are reports that the SS trust fund will be funded several years longer than originally forecast -- mostly due to the high rate of unexpected deaths from COVID. So raw numbers do not really tell the story. Many entry jobs/fast food are also filled by seniors looking for a little extra spending cash. However the powers that be have done such a good job on the scare tactics of COVID, seniors do not feel safe working these jobs.

 

[clarker99]

Young people and new grads are not settling for entry level jobs. They are being extra picky and getting into situations that allow them the lifestyle they want.

Early retirements are the major trend. Parents don't want their teen son or daughter working in fast food chains or other minimum wage jobs. Whether for covid reasons or just working conditions or whatever.

I am in my early 40's and I have friends who are already planning to retire at the first opportunity (early to mid-50's) where as pre-Covid they were saying that 60-65 was there goal. Time will tell. I am only staying in my job for 10 more years at most. 25 years is too much time doing the same thing!

Businesses are going to have to pivot or be left short staffed. The assumption people will be taken advantage of is maybe over. The labor market finds itself is a once in a lifetime opportunity to negotiate and choose their own terms to a certain extent.

Disney was seemingly trying to wait out the trend but will likely need to raise wages or offer larger signing bonuses. People are just not settling for less, at least for now.

 

[hildarumpole]

Somewhat related to the above posts...I have heard and read many articles about people leaving the workforce which has led to these job openings and no one to hire, leading to some of the "good" unemployment stats. The Great Resignation, for example.

My question has always been how did people just quit and stop looking for work? Was it related to pandemic stimulus checks? If companies have issue hiring entry-level positions, you would think that demographic would be the ones most needing a steady paycheck. It's very confusing to me.

In FL, extra government assistance ended long ago, but there are other factors causing labor shortages. Tourism is booming in the state, not just Orlando, but Tampa, Miami, and beach communities, leading to more opportunities for entertainment, restaurant, and hospitality workers. There has also been an influx of new residents, causing huge housing cost increases, leading a large percentage of young working age adults to continue living with parents. When basic needs are being taken care of, it's easy to lose ambition. Don't discount the toll of increased depression and substance abuse in that demographic either. Not easy issues to overcome in the short term.

 

[wabbott]

Back to the real world, like our waitress told us at the 50's Prime Time Cafe, when she handed me the bill, lol.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS

DIS
99.33-2.83 (-2.77%)
As of 12:46PM EDT. Market open.

 

[wabbott]

Interesting comments about the boomer workforce behavior. I think a lot of us boomers (1950 for me) got a serious reality check about our coming mortality and decided to spend more time with friends and family instead of at work.

 

[RivShore]

Back to the real world, like our waitress told us at the 50's Prime Time Cafe, when she handed me the bill, lol.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS

DIS
99.33-2.83 (-2.77%)
As of 12:46PM EDT. Market open.

That real world is not looking pretty

 

[RivShore]

In FL, extra government assistance ended long ago, but there are other factors causing labor shortages. Tourism is booming in the state, not just Orlando, but Tampa, Miami, and beach communities, leading to more opportunities for entertainment, restaurant, and hospitality workers. There has also been an influx of new residents, causing huge housing cost increases, leading a large percentage of young working age adults to continue living with parents. When basic needs are being taken care of, it's easy to lose ambition. Don't discount the toll of increased depression and substance abuse in that demographic either. Not easy issues to overcome in the short term.

Another thing that I don't think I saw mentioned above is the lack of international workers since Covid. They are finally coming back to the parks and probably one of the reasons they seem much better staffed now.

 

[DeeBee3]

For months I have been reading/hearing people I trust talk about the serious recession we were in (before people would use that word) and how close we were to depression. I think we are at the tipping point.

 

[wabbott]

Sorta, kinda related to discussions we've had here.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-chief-accounting-officer-ken-153328082.html

Netflix Chief Accounting Officer Ken Barker Resigns After 3 Months In Role; CFO Spencer Newman To Assume Duties During Replacement Search
Dade Hayes
Fri, September 23, 2022 at 10:33 AM

Ken Barker, the principal accounting officer at Netflix, has resigned from the company just three months after he arrived.

In an SEC filing, the company said Barker submitted his resignation on Thursday. The filing described it as a “personal decision” and emphasized that it was “not the result of any disagreement with the company on any matter relating to the company’s financials, operations, policies, or practices.”

Netflix CFO Spencer Neumann will take on the role of principal accounting officer during the search for Barker’s permanent replacement, the company said.

Barker joined Netflix last June after a 19-year run at Electronic Arts. Before EA, Barker worked at Sun Microsystems and Deloitte & Touche.

The exec shuffle comes as Netflix navigates one of the most challenging periods in its 25-year history. The company has laid off workers and trimmed expenses in an effort to right the ship after two straight disappointing quarters. Finally fully acknowledging a throng of new streaming competitors in the U.S., Netflix has reversed its earlier strategy and will soon introduce a cheaper, ad-supported subscription tier and is continuing ongoing efforts to push into video games, interactive entertainment and merchandising. Financial discipline has become a paramount priority for the company after a lengthy period when it acted as the classic tech disruptor spending its way to dominance.

Netflix’s next quarterly earnings report will come next month. The company’s stock tumbled more than 70% after shocking subscriber losses, but has been holding steady in the range of $230 a share, less than half of where it was at the start of 2022. On the programming front, the third quarter brought more encouraging returns and the fourth quarter will see a wave of high-profile movies like the sequel to Knives Out as well as a new season of The Crown.

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001065280/c5698b9f-16be-4ebc-bd38-901ff9db6133.pdf

 

[RivShore]

For months I have been reading/hearing people I trust talk about the serious recession we were in (before people would use that word) and how close we were to depression. I think we are at the tipping point.

I haven't heard anyone broach the D word at all. We went thru a heck of a lot in the 70's, 80's, early 2000's and never came close to a D. Why now?
The R word is here and it will probably be a hard landing but everything seems to happen much faster than it used to in our modern economy so i would expect a quick snap back. And then, once the Ukraine issue resolves and once China gives up on zero Covid, both supply and demand will improve, keeping things from sinking any more. JMHO

 

[wabbott]

I haven't heard anyone broach the D word at all. We went thru a heck of a lot in the 70's, 80's, early 2000's and never came close to a D. Why now?
The R word is here and it will probably be a hard landing but everything seems to happen much faster than it used to in our modern economy so i would expect a quick snap back. And then, once the Ukraine issue resolves and once China gives up on zero Covid, both supply and demand will improve, keeping things from sinking any more. JMHO

“Never, ever bet against America.” Warren Buffett

 

[DeeBee3]

I haven't heard anyone broach the D word at all. We went thru a heck of a lot in the 70's, 80's, early 2000's and never came close to a D. Why now?
The R word is here and it will probably be a hard landing but everything seems to happen much faster than it used to in our modern economy so i would expect a quick snap back. And then, once the Ukraine issue resolves and once China gives up on zero Covid, both supply and demand will improve, keeping things from sinking any more. JMHO

I agree with the last points, but just disagree with timing. I think it is going to be a long, sustained process and very difficult to recover from. Too many decisions made that set this in motion. Even if "undone" the damage was already inflicted.

I think it depends on your outlook and how you weigh factors like you mentioned.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.ft.com/content/b33d1a4c...traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

Superfans accuse Disney of taking the Mickey
As theme parks subsidise the company’s huge investment in streaming, higher prices for frequent visitors are inevitable
Elaine Moore
9/25/2022

In America, the most devoted fans of Walt Disney are known as Disney adults. This is the group that drops thousands of dollars each year on park visits, swooning over the distinct smell of the water in the Pirates of the Caribbean ride. To outsiders, their devotion to a brand aimed at children is embarrassing. Even Disney’s feelings towards them are complicated.

In an interview with the Hollywood Reporter this month, Disney chief executive Bob Chapek implied that fans who paid for expensive annual passes were visiting so often they were jamming up the parks: “We love the superfans, obviously. But we also like the fans that don’t have the same expression of their fandom . . . we’ve got to make sure that there’s room in the park for the family from Denver that comes once every five years.”

Access to many annual pass options has been suspended. Pre-booking visits is now required. Not many companies get to claim superfans as customers. Tesla perhaps. Maybe Apple. At Disney, fan devotion has sent attendance in US theme parks back to pre-pandemic levels. It has enabled the company to expand from family-centred holidays to more expensive experiences such as cruise ships.
In the last quarter, Disney Parks, Experiences and Products revenues increased to $7.4bn from $4.3bn the previous year. Cutting off a favourite product could be a risky move. I’ve seen Disney adults up close just once.

When I moved to California a few years ago, I persuaded a friend to come along to Disneyland with me so I could see what I’d missed out on while growing up in England. We drove from Los Angeles to Anaheim on a quiet Tuesday in early December to visit the original park, built on a former orange grove in 1955. Because it was a school day I assumed we’d have the place to ourselves. I was wrong.

Thousands of holidaying adults swarmed around us, decked out in Disney merch. Every ride had a long queue. So did every restaurant. The hyperreality of Disney theme parks has made them the most popular resorts in the world. Setting a haunted mansion beside the wild west land in view of an enchanted castle and surrounding them with pretzel and hot dog stands makes for sensory overload. For many visitors, the link to childhood means Disney parks are more meaningful than ordinary holidays. That means they are worth paying more for — park price rises exceed inflation.

Yet even as other discretionary spending dips, Disney fans keep buying tickets. The problem is that super fans don’t spend as much per visit as occasional park visitors. There are only so many Minnie Mouse headbands a person can wear. For some, the annual pass that allows buyers to visit Disney parks throughout the year is extremely good value too. A one-day trip to Disney World in Florida is $109. The annual Incredi Pass is $1,299 plus tax. Visit once a month and you break even. Go every week and you’d save over $4,000.

The mismatch has shades of the MoviePass debacle, in which subscribers paid less than $10 per month for multiple cinema trips. MoviePass guessed they might visit once or twice a month. But their willingness to watch movies day after day left the company bankrupt.

Disney needs its parks to help subsidise the company’s massive investment in streaming. In August, Disney overtook Netflix on streaming subscriptions, triggering existential panic among the latter’s investors. With 221mn paying viewers, Disney+ is a hit. Its decision to price the service below competitors has encouraged sign-ups. Subscriptions for Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ combined are expected to report close to $12bn in revenue this year, according to Insider Intelligence.

Disney’s ability to cross-sell its intellectual property sets it apart from services like Netflix — which has tried to sell merchandise but has no significant source of revenue other than streaming subscriptions. But creating enough content to keep viewers watching is expensive.

Disney has an impressive back catalogue and has successfully tapped franchises like Star Wars and Marvel to create new TV shows. But costs are high. It reported a $1.1bn operating loss in the third quarter — three times as much as the same quarter the previous year. Ensuring park visitors keep coming back and spending more is therefore essential. Disney is reported to be considering a membership programme along the lines of Amazon Prime that would encompass streaming, parks and merchandise. Fans are not satisfied.

At the recent D23 Expo, an annual event for the diehard Disney supporters, there were complaints that annual passes were still suspended. Unluckily for them, Chapek used to run the parks division. He knows that demand is far higher than supply and is sufficiently unsentimental to take advantage. Prices could double and visitors would buy them. Disney fans may moan but they will keep on coming back.

 

[wabbott]

To use an old shopworn business phrase, this is "value added" - the amount by which the value of an article is increased at each stage of its production, exclusive of initial costs. Putting the characters out in the hotels amongst the guests was a master stroke for WDW. It's the kind of idea Walt would have had. Whoever came up with the idea needs a big bonus. These kids will carry the memories of this for all their lives.

 

[RivShore]

To use an old shopworn business phrase, this is "value added" - the amount by which the value of an article is increased at each stage of its production, exclusive of initial costs. Putting the characters out in the hotels amongst the guests was a master stroke for WDW. It's the kind of idea Walt would have had. Whoever came up with the idea needs a big bonus. These kids will carry the memories of this for all their lives.

View attachment 706464

It really is a great idea. Thanks for pointing it out! We saw it in person a few times last month and it was great to see and really helped make it feel like normal was back and actually better than pre-Covid.

On a related note, the ABC sitcom, Home Economics, did an entire episode in Disneyland recently. A full half hour commercial that both entertained and advertised. I know you think ABC should be jettisoned but things like this show the synergistic value of it.