Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[midnight star]

I'm the worst when it comes to speculation lol. But I am going to guess early 2021 (Jan-March).

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

My guess is May 2021.

 

[amyg1975]

All these spring/summer guesses make me sad. Realistic, yes, but still sad.

 

[DontSpamMe]

Even though it's like predicting where a snowflake will land.

I say July 1st 2021. Just in time for the 4th.

 

[KPeterso]

I am in the Summer 2021 group as well. I believe we are still in for a long wait.

 

[StarlitNight05]

Unfortunately I agree with others. Probably summer, although next Fall wouldn't surprise me either.

 

[LoriLovesMickey]

If DL did open by May 2021, do you think there will be Grad Night activities?

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Yeah I would think Summer 2021 at the earliest unless the vaccine happens much faster than anticipated. My guess would be late summer, maybe August? If the requirement remains "Yellow tier", then I think it will almost completely depend on the speed of implementation of the vaccine, but from what I have heard it probably won't be easily available until April or so, and people will need 2 doses.

Total Covid cases in Orange County:



Total Hospitalizations in Orange County:




Source: https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/

It took about 2 months from the time the coronavirus started surging again in mid-June until it got back to its previous levels in mid-August. Then, even 2 months after that in mid-October (or 4 months from the beginning of the surge), Orange county was still in the "orange" tier if I remember correctly they still hadn't reached the Orange tier (edit apparently I don't remember correctly). It probably would have taken many months after that to reach yellow if it hadn't surged again.

If vaccines are available faster though, it could speed up the process.

 

[AZMermaid]

If DL did open by May 2021, do you think there will be Grad Night activities?

I am guessing not just because I think they will have just reopened and not want to deal with groups of teens who may not want to socially distance themselves, lol. But if there’s a vaccine and it’s required for entry... then maybe?

 

[DLgal]

If DL did open by May 2021, do you think there will be Grad Night activities?

Heck no.

 

[DLgal]

Yeah I would think Summer 2021 at the earliest unless the vaccine happens much faster than anticipated. My guess would be late summer, maybe August? If the requirement remains "Yellow tier", then I think it will almost completely depend on the speed of implementation of the vaccine, but from what I have heard it probably won't be easily available until April or so, and people will need 2 doses.

Total Covid cases in Orange County:

View attachment 539947

Total Hospitalizations in Orange County:


View attachment 539946

Source: https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/

It took about 2 months from the time the coronavirus started surging again in mid-June until it got back to its previous levels in mid-August. Then, even 2 months after that in mid-October (or 4 months from the beginning of the surge), Orange county was still in the "orange" tier if I remember correctly. It probably would have taken many months after that to reach yellow if it hadn't surged again.

If vaccines are available faster though, it could speed up the process.

OC never got to the Orange tier.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

OC never got to the Orange tier.

Ah, thanks for the correction

 

[LoriLovesMickey]

Heck no.

I'm actually hoping not since I will want to visit and Grad Night can really muck things up. May would be great but I will go as soon as I am able to. I imagine that if they open up for summer, it will look different than most summers!

 

[Lumpy1106]

So what’s everyone’s new speculation date? I’m thinking March based on the last shareholder meeting? I thought that was the word tossed out. We’re back from WDW (had a great time!) and now looking at our summer 2021... debating getting the hotel lined up because the deals are so good and just waiting it out from there. Figure we can switch to WDW if we had to (but man, if they aren’t open by summer that’d be serious trouble!)

I was so hideously wrong the first time I made a guess I almost don't want to speculate - but I will.
The time to achieve the different tiers is not linear - it's exponential. If say Red tier takes two weeks to achieve, Orange would take 4, yellow would take 16. In addition to that, the parks are not going to be satisfied with 25% capacity once we get to yellow because currently there is no level beyond yellow and they can't stay 25% capacity forever. LSS - it's going to take a vaccine to get the numbers down and at least threat of legal action to get the criteria revised. Does that open the parks sooner or later? I'll be optimistic and say sooner - April 2 is my guess (first Friday in April).

 

[TikiTikiFan]

Such a bummer. Perhaps I’m better off aiming for a big time splurge Disneyland xmas in 2021 to avoid being stuck on the ronacoaster again and waiting for Newsom to toss us breadcrumbs. That was the worst!

I think you’re all right though, unless Newsom changes the guidelines, we’re looking at summer 2021.

 

[Epicnemesis]

I think, depending on how widespread they are able to offer the vaccine, we should see the parks open by February-March.

If the vaccine is available to all then there should in theory be little reason to be this draconian about everything.

Those that get the vaccine should have the peace of mind of what looks like a very strong vaccine performance. Those that choose to not take the vaccine inherently bear the risks of getting the virus on themselves. Society shouldn’t be beholden to those that both refuse to get the vaccine and also refuse to accept the personal risk of coming into contact with the virus.

*This is assuming that enough people get the vaccine/already have gotten COVID and this wouldn’t overwhelm the hospitals. All future decision making regarding COVID in a post vaccine world needs to be based on hospitalization rates/hospital capacity.

 

[disneychrista]

If DL did open by May 2021, do you think there will be Grad Night activities?

No for the simple fact that schools will not have the time needed to organize such an activity.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

I think, depending on how widespread they are able to offer the vaccine, we should see the parks open by February-March.

If the vaccine is available to all then there should in theory be little reason to be this draconian about everything.

Those that get the vaccine should have the peace of mind of what looks like a very strong vaccine performance. Those that choose to not take the vaccine inherently bear the risks of getting the virus on themselves. Society shouldn’t be beholden to those that both refuse to get the vaccine and also refuse to accept the personal risk of coming into contact with the virus.

*This is assuming that enough people get the vaccine/already have gotten COVID and this wouldn’t overwhelm the hospitals. All future decision making regarding COVID in a post vaccine world needs to be based on hospitalization rates/hospital capacity.

Yeah, availability of the vaccine will be key, though I'm not sure if it will be widespread enough by Feb/March (though I hope so!). It helps that there are at least 2 good vaccine options in Pfizer and Moderna (maybe 3 if you count AstraZeneca, though their data doesn't seem as good).

Pfizer says they will have around 50 million doses by the end of 2020, 1/2 going to the US, so 25 million doses. Moderna says around 20 million doses by January, so 45 million doses. Each person needs 2 doses one month apart, so around 22 million people in the US will be completely vaccinated by February.

There is also the issue that Covid vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if the infection rate is high in the community, they still might not be allowed to open even with the existence of the vaccine.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

If DL did open by May 2021, do you think there will be Grad Night activities?

I am guessing not just because I think they will have just reopened and not want to deal with groups of teens who may not want to socially distance themselves, lol. But if there’s a vaccine and it’s required for entry... then maybe?

Heck no.

It appears that Disney has come to their senses and cancelled the previously announced Grad Nite 2021 dates: https://www.disneyyouth.com/programs/field-trips/dlr/grad-nite-disneyland/.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Annual Passholders:

https://insidethemagic.net/2020/11/disneyland-holiday-message-gift-guide-aps-ky1/