GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[kdonnel]

Is this Florida math? Even with assuming 10 times as many people have had Covid, Florida's population is 21M. 6M/21M = 0.285 * 100 = 28.5%.

40% of 21M = 8.4M. So, you'd still need 2.4M, which, assuming the 10 times is correct, still means you need 200K MORE cases.

Combine that together with other studies that have shown many have a T-cell response that provides some level of immunity and Florida is probably approaching the lower end of heard immunity with 40% or so of their population immune.

 

[jlwhitney]

Unfortunately, our population and habits does not match Sweden. A good portion of the COVID complication/hospitalization rate can be traced to our caloric intake lifestyle. The difficult part about the immunity claim is we have no experience with this strain on lasting immunity. Human coronavirus immunity is not long lasting. Will it all recycle in 6months? Do simply don't know. We have some spotty anecdotal reports of losing immunity, but simply don't know. I think we will have some more evidence with the EUA of plasma and folk will be tracking antibodies now with that and can quantify real donors on their antibody supplies with repeated draws.

It really is going to be an unknown going into the fall with schools and then weather impacts in the north. A verified, vetted vaccine can't come soon enough.

From what I have found and read immunity to the other 4 human coronaviruses is about 2-3yrs.
There are so many viruses and strains that cause what we call the common cold which is why we get colds so easily.

 

[Pyotr]

A study was released today about the first documented case of reinfection. In a nutshell, the man no longer had the antibodies. However, his immune system kicked into gear and he was asymptomatic the second time.

A few things, it’s one case out of how many that have been infected, 25 million? It was determined that he was infected with a different strain the second time. This is a good thing. Having your body adapt to the virus and being able to fight it off. But let’s not get excited over one case.

 

[anthony2k7]

Combine that together with other studies that have shown many have a T-cell response that provides some level of immunity and Florida is probably approaching the lower end of heard immunity with 40% or so of their population immune.

Except T cell immunity is just like antibody immunity in that you need to have had the virus first I believe so you're double counting the same people there.

 

[anthony2k7]

From what I have found and read immunity to the other 4 human coronaviruses is about 2-3yrs.
There are so many viruses and strains that cause what we call the common cold which is why we get colds so easily.

Thats not what iv ready.

Most are expecting a few months immunity at best.


https://www.covid-19facts.com/?p=84747

 

[kdonnel]

Except T cell immunity is just like antibody immunity in that you need to have had the virus first I believe so you're double counting the same people there.

Studies have shown a t-cell response to Covid-19 in people who have NOT had Covid-19.

No double counting.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih...ne-cells-common-cold-may-recognize-sars-cov-2

 

[godisney14]

That was my first thought. But iv seen others mention actual cases could be 10x the tested numbers. Tested FL has had 600,000 so 10x that gets you to 6 million of a population of 20 million.

So probably not 40% but 30% isn't beyond possibility.

10x?
Are you referring to the 10x mentioned by the JAMA seroprevalence report from a month ago?

That was based on a (relative) small number of cases in certain metropolitans back in around March during a approx. one week of sero data collection. For example, at that time, the positive rate was 1.9% in South Florida. Based on that they were saying it could be up to 10x more.

All those conditions don’t necessarily interpret to entire Florida being possibly 10x more now.

Even 30% in FL is not near reality.

 

[RamblingMad]

10x?
Are you referring to the 10x mentioned by the JAMA seroprevalence report from a month ago?

That was based on a (relative) small number of cases in certain metropolitans back in around March during a approx. one week of sero data collection. For example, at that time, the positive rate was 1.9% in South Florida. Based on that they were saying it could be up to 10x more.

All those conditions don’t necessarily interpret to entire Florida being possibly 10x more now.

Even 30% in FL is not near reality.

I suspect 10-12%.

 

[anthony2k7]

Studies have shown a t-cell response to Covid-19 in people who have NOT had Covid-19.

No double counting.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih...ne-cells-common-cold-may-recognize-sars-cov-2

They say "may" quite a lot in that article!

The main basis of the article seems to be that fragments of this virus match other coronavirus's which of course they do as they're the same type of virus. So some of those fragments trigger t cell reactions - ok makes sense.

Its quite a leap to then suggest that people can be immune from covid by having T Cells from other coronavirus's though.

Overall, I'm not convinced at all.

 

[anthony2k7]

I suspect 10-12%.

So back to my original point of FL numbers miraculously falling, it probably isn't related to hurd immunity in that case!

 

[RamblingMad]

So back to my original point of FL numbers miraculously falling, it probably isn't related to hurd immunity in that case!

It’s far too early for herd immunity. I think, we’re seeing numbers falling due to social distancing and mask compliance. Folks also aren’t going to big gatherings either. We’re doing a good job containing it. But we have to persist until a vaccine comes out. Hopefully, we can keep daily new cases to a low.

 

[mom2rtk]

It’s far too early for herd immunity. I think, we’re seeing numbers falling due to social distancing and mask compliance. Folks also aren’t going to big gatherings either. We’re doing a good job containing it. But we have to persist until a vaccine comes out. Hopefully, we can keep daily new cases to a low.

And if people won't take the vaccine?

 

[RamblingMad]

And if people won't take the vaccine?

This isn’t measles. You don’t need a high percentage to get it. You need about 40% to get it, which seems more than reasonable even with antivaxxers.

 

[montreid]

This isn’t measles. You don’t need a high percentage to get it. You need about 40% to get it, which seems more than reasonable even with antivaxxers.

Herd immunity for this is a guess, at best. May or may not reach at xxx % -- best guesses are 40-70% needed some say higher, few say lower. Best consensus -- we don't know.

 

[RamblingMad]

Herd immunity for this is a guess, at best. May or may not reach at xxx % -- best guesses are 40-70% needed some say higher, few say lower. Best consensus -- we don't know.

We do know how quickly this virus spreads. This is no longer an unknown.

 

[godisney14]

So back to my original point of FL numbers miraculously falling, it probably isn't related to hurd immunity in that case!

Number of daily tests conducted has also gone down by about 25% from its peak across the country as a whole on average.
In Florida, they went from a peak average of about 60,000 tests a day in mid-July to almost just 20,000 tests a day on average recently. Similar decline in Texas as well. Less tests, less cases right?
Meanwhile, CA has been averaging about 120,000 tests/day consistently for the past almost two months.

 

[Farro]

Number of daily tests conducted has also gone down by about 25% from its peak across the country as a whole on average.
In Florida, they went from a peak average of about 60,000 tests a day in mid-July to almost just 20,000 tests a day on average recently. Similar decline in Texas as well. Less tests, less cases right?
Meanwhile, CA has been averaging about 120,000 tests/day consistently for the past almost two months.

Where did you see that Florida is only doing about 20,000 tests per day?

Everyone keeps posting different numbers

 

[montreid]

We do know how quickly this virus spreads. This is no longer an unknown.

True, but the current R-naught has little to do with achieving threshold for herd immunity -- we simply don't know at what % population immunity results in effective herd immunity to drive down the R-naught. Also unknown is the duration and amount of protection one gets from either natural exposure and from immunization. This is only 5 months old and just barely getting population wide level data on sustained immunity.

 

[1GoldenSun]

I can't speak for Florida as a whole, but in my little corner I've noticed mask compliance go from you being the weird one if you were wearing a mask to nearly 100% over the last couple months. Granted I don't go many places. Today I went to Walmart for the first time since early March and was pleasantly surprised to see only two masks worn below noses and one dangling from an ear. Also, people seemed to try to stay out of each others' way. I just got back from a week at Disney and compliance was just as good at Walmart. I do most of my shopping at Publix and never see anyone without a mask and almost all are worn properly. Even at the gas station most people wear the mask at the pumps. This is waaaay different than what I was seeing even just a month ago. I think people are just doing better.

 

[montreid]

I can't speak for Florida as a whole, but in my little corner I've noticed mask compliance go from you being the weird one if you were wearing a mask to nearly 100% over the last couple months. Granted I don't go many places. Today I went to Walmart for the first time since early March and was pleasantly surprised to see only two masks worn below noses and one dangling from an ear. Also, people seemed to try to stay out of each others' way. I just got back from a week at Disney and compliance was just as good at Walmart. I do most of my shopping at Publix and never see anyone without a mask and almost all are worn properly. Even at the gas station most people wear the mask at the pumps. This is waaaay different than what I was seeing even just a month ago. I think people are just doing better.

This. People coming to an understanding that only way to get out of this is to do it together and beat this virus.