GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[montreid]

All of Florida is also not Miami, just like all of NY isn’t NYC.

Absolutely true. Didn't say where Miami goes, FL follows and purposely upset Gator and Seminole fans

Just pointing out that your statement "there are actually worst areas in the country but they don’t get nearly the news country" that the epicenter of this recent surge is Miami and there is no other area with this concentrated and scale. Orange county and Duval have spikes, but pale compared to Miami's.

As a state per capita it still leads all other states.
https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases

 

[anthony2k7]

Does anyone else find florida numbers a bit surprising?

How have they managed to get cases down so significantly by doing so little? I cant think of anywhere else in the world that has had such a dramatic drop in cases with no shutdowns.

 

[cmp3400]

Does anyone else find florida numbers a bit surprising?

How have they managed to get cases down so significantly by doing so little? I cant think of anywhere else in the world that has had such a dramatic drop in cases with no shutdowns.

Bars are closed and most of the areas that are highly populated do require masks. I am shocked how much those things seem to have helped. That being said--of the 25 people my husband directly works with, 6 of them went to a bar together (for like a brunch time get together)--all 6 of them got it and then passed it on to 6 more people at work, so I guess there is something there

 

[anthony2k7]

Bars are closed and most of the areas that are highly populated do require masks. I am shocked how much those things seem to have helped. That being said--of the 25 people my husband directly works with, 6 of them went to a bar together (for like a brunch time get together)--all 6 of them got it and then passed it on to 6 more people at work, so I guess there is something there

Are that many bars closed though? Looking at wdw it seems most are getting around it by the food exemption.

 

[cmp3400]

Are that many bars closed though? Looking at wdw it seems most are getting around it by the food exemption.

Around here it does seem like the "real bars" and breweries are closed, but restaurants that have bars are open with very limited seating available. Last night I went to a neighboring county (the county does not have a mask mandate, the city limits does) and around half of the restaurants were already closed by 6pm, not because they are required so I am assuming it is due to low business

 

[kdonnel]

Does anyone else find florida numbers a bit surprising?

How have they managed to get cases down so significantly by doing so little? I cant think of anywhere else in the world that has had such a dramatic drop in cases with no shutdowns.

I don't.

By some estimates the Rt in Florida has been below one since June 30th.

Taking into account the CDC study that shows cases are 8-24x higher then testing indicates and using a multiplier of 10x that means Florida has had 6,000,000 cases. Combine that together with other studies that have shown many have a T-cell response that provides some level of immunity and Florida is probably approaching the lower end of heard immunity with 40% or so of their population immune.

Florida's chart of new cases looks like every other state that experienced a rise starting in mid June. Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, etc.

Dare I say all those same states chart of new cases looks very similar to Sweden's? All the states should expect to reach a point where they simmer at about 300 new cases per 10 million residents per day.

 

[Pyotr]

Does anyone else find florida numbers a bit surprising?

How have they managed to get cases down so significantly by doing so little? I cant think of anywhere else in the world that has had such a dramatic drop in cases with no shutdowns.

Sweden?

 

[Lumpy1106]

Does anyone else find florida numbers a bit surprising?

How have they managed to get cases down so significantly by doing so little? I cant think of anywhere else in the world that has had such a dramatic drop in cases with no shutdowns.

As someone from CA, yes, entirely so. We have faced near Draconian shut downs, schools are all online with only a handful of exceptions, DL is closed with no reopening date announced. Yet FL is open and their numbers are better. We went to WDW first week of Aug, just past the peak of infections. On property everyone seemed to take it very seriously. Off property (which we avoided as much as possible), not so much.

I think there is an untold truth here that is not getting much attention. It is not so much what we are or are not allowed to do, but what we are actually doing that is driving this. FL didn't have nearly as many protests. While I don't think the (outdoor) protests lead to new cases directly, I do think that whatever the protesters were doing before and after they hit the streets did. If FL, the bars were eventually shut, but it is well known that that did not stop the party scene in Miami. Also, in CA, close-knit extended families continue to congregate, and that's a big driver. Nobody wears masks or socially distances in their own home, with their own family. I could be wrong, but I don't think that happens nearly as much in FL.

I can live with the masks and the social distancing, but I really hope that the schools in CA get to open and soon. We are watching FL schools CLOSELY - really optimistic that things will go well there, and our schools follow suit. We are on a county-by-county evaluation, with schools shut in the counties that are on the "watchlist". Orange County JUST met the numbers need to get off the watch list. I believe they are allowed to open schools in 2 weeks if the numbers do not get worse (let the negotiations begin). Even LA county is on track to meet the Governor's goals by mid-September - hopefully the goals do not change...again. I will leave it at that - any further discussion on that topic belongs elsewhere.

 

[kdonnel]

Yet FL is open and their numbers are better.

Florida has about half the population of California so it makes sense that the numbers are about half.

Areas that remain in a tighter lock down will have a longer plateau by design/choice.

 

[RamblingMad]

Cases are looking better for FL. I take weekend numbers with a grain of salt. FL is still high relative to the rest of the country.

 

[jlwhitney]

Does anyone else find florida numbers a bit surprising?

How have they managed to get cases down so significantly by doing so little? I cant think of anywhere else in the world that has had such a dramatic drop in cases with no shutdowns.

Nope because all outbreaks go up and come down.

 

[jlwhitney]

Bars are closed and most of the areas that are highly populated do require masks. I am shocked how much those things seem to have helped. That being said--of the 25 people my husband directly works with, 6 of them went to a bar together (for like a brunch time get together)--all 6 of them got it and then passed it on to 6 more people at work, so I guess there is something there

Yet the areas like south Florida that require masks for the longest still is the area with the most cases and worst outbreak.

 

[jlwhitney]

I don't.

By some estimates the Rt in Florida has been below one since June 30th.

Taking into account the CDC study that shows cases are 8-24x higher then testing indicates and using a multiplier of 10x that means Florida has had 6,000,000 cases. Combine that together with other studies that have shown many have a T-cell response that provides some level of immunity and Florida is probably approaching the lower end of heard immunity with 40% or so of their population immune.

Florida's chart of new cases looks like every other state that experienced a rise starting in mid June. Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, etc.

Dare I say all those same states chart of new cases looks very similar to Sweden's? All the states should expect to reach a point where they simmer at about 300 new cases per 10 million residents per day.

very well said and I fully agree. This virus is just going to go place to place and do the same thing and then will be held at reasonable level through immunity and a potential vaccine. And it won’t be much different than any other viral contagious Illness.

 

[anthony2k7]

I don't.

By some estimates the Rt in Florida has been below one since June 30th.

Taking into account the CDC study that shows cases are 8-24x higher then testing indicates and using a multiplier of 10x that means Florida has had 6,000,000 cases. Combine that together with other studies that have shown many have a T-cell response that provides some level of immunity and Florida is probably approaching the lower end of heard immunity with 40% or so of their population immune.

Florida's chart of new cases looks like every other state that experienced a rise starting in mid June. Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, etc.

Dare I say all those same states chart of new cases looks very similar to Sweden's? All the states should expect to reach a point where they simmer at about 300 new cases per 10 million residents per day.

Those are interesting numbers! I hadn't realised that so much of the population of FL had now likely had it.

Makes me wonder if this points towards having the strain that is more virulent but less severe than other countries have had.

To get to perhaps at least 30% of population to have had it in that few months without overwhelming the hospitals seems quite different to the hospitalisation rates some other countries saw.

 

[godisney14]

I don't.

By some estimates the Rt in Florida has been below one since June 30th.

Taking into account the CDC study that shows cases are 8-24x higher then testing indicates and using a multiplier of 10x that means Florida has had 6,000,000 cases. Combine that together with other studies that have shown many have a T-cell response that provides some level of immunity and Florida is probably approaching the lower end of heard immunity with 40% or so of their population immune.

Florida's chart of new cases looks like every other state that experienced a rise starting in mid June. Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, etc.

Dare I say all those same states chart of new cases looks very similar to Sweden's? All the states should expect to reach a point where they simmer at about 300 new cases per 10 million residents per day.

40%???

Okay. No.

 

[montreid]

Unfortunately, our population and habits does not match Sweden. A good portion of the COVID complication/hospitalization rate can be traced to our caloric intake lifestyle. The difficult part about the immunity claim is we have no experience with this strain on lasting immunity. Human coronavirus immunity is not long lasting. Will it all recycle in 6months? Do simply don't know. We have some spotty anecdotal reports of losing immunity, but simply don't know. I think we will have some more evidence with the EUA of plasma and folk will be tracking antibodies now with that and can quantify real donors on their antibody supplies with repeated draws.

It really is going to be an unknown going into the fall with schools and then weather impacts in the north. A verified, vetted vaccine can't come soon enough.

 

[anthony2k7]

40%???

Okay. No.

That was my first thought. But iv seen others mention actual cases could be 10x the tested numbers. Tested FL has had 600,000 so 10x that gets you to 6 million of a population of 20 million.

So probably not 40% but 30% isn't beyond possibility.

 

[sam_gordon]

Taking into account the CDC study that shows cases are 8-24x higher then testing indicates and using a multiplier of 10x that means Florida has had 6,000,000 cases. Combine that together with other studies that have shown many have a T-cell response that provides some level of immunity and Florida is probably approaching the lower end of heard immunity with 40% or so of their population immune.

Is this Florida math? Even with assuming 10 times as many people have had Covid, Florida's population is 21M. 6M/21M = 0.285 * 100 = 28.5%.

40% of 21M = 8.4M. So, you'd still need 2.4M, which, assuming the 10 times is correct, still means you need 200K MORE cases.

 

[sam_gordon]

That was my first thought. But iv seen others mention actual cases could be 10x the tested numbers. Tested FL has had 600,000 so 10x that gets you to 6 million of a population of 20 million.

So probably not 40% but 30% isn't beyond possibility.

Rounding from 28.5% to 30%, I get. Saying 28.5% is even NEARING 40%, I don't accept.

 

[anthony2k7]

Rounding from 28.5% to 30%, I get. Saying 28.5% is even NEARING 40%, I don't accept.

Depends just what that factor is of actual versus tested case really - which we don't know.