How good/bad a job has your state done at flattening the curve?

[JimMIA]

The other thing about governmental restrictions is that government can't fix individual stupidity.

I was talking to my next door neighbor a few minutes ago, and her son now has a problem. He's in college -- which is closed and all classes are online -- but he's still living in his off-campus apartment with two roommates.

One of the roommates went home last weekend, his mom was not feeling well, and she tested positive for coronavirus. So what did the kid do Sunday evening? Drove back to the apartment, of course!

The kids' (plural) rationale is that they each have their own private bedroom and bathroom and they can practice "social distancing!"

Of course, having been a 19 year-old boy at one time, I realize that's about as sensible as we get, but the neighbor was livid.

I gave her a mask and some gloves to send to her son, and we'll hope for the best.

 

[olwyngdh]

Kentucky is rockin it

Next slide Kenneth. Beers with Beshear, 5:00 every afternoon.

 

[Hikergirl]

We just keep getting worse. I was checking the cases by county and saw that the county my dh works in has more cases than the entire state of California.

 

[RamblingMad]

We just keep getting worse. I was checking the cases by county and saw that the county my dh works in has more cases than the entire state of California.

We’re doomed. Time to put on my Coronavirus defense: my tin foil hat. It will protect me

 

[Hikergirl]

We’re doomed. Time to put on my Coronavirus defense: my tin foil hat. It will protect me

I think a lot of NYers are definitely doomed but I’m willing to try the tin foil hat if it helps

 

[sam_gordon]

We’re doomed. Time to put on my Coronavirus defense: my tin foil hat. It will protect me

I wonder how many times you've used the "we're doomed" line. If we're so doomed, we may as well open everything back up.

 

[RamblingMad]

I wonder how many times you've used the "we're doomed" line. If we're so doomed, we may as well open everything back up.

Sometimes I need to laugh in the time of Corona.

 

[soccerdad72]

Next slide Kenneth. Beers with Beshear, 5:00 every afternoon.

Wine with DeWine at 2pm

 

[JimMIA]

We just keep getting worse. I was checking the cases by county and saw that the county my dh works in has more cases than the entire state of California.

If you're looking at the Johns Hopkins site, it is quite far behind. They show our county with 7 deaths, but we've had several in the last 3-4 days and now have 19.

Trying to keep up with the whole world is impossible, so there is no way to really have accurate data from an institution trying to track the entire pandemic.

Also keep in mind that the new cases are not expected to peak in many places (including CA) until early May, and it will be some time after that before things start to decline significantly. We're just getting started.

 

[Hikergirl]

If you're looking at the Johns Hopkins site, it is quite far behind. They show our county with 7 deaths, but we've had several in the last 3-4 days and now have 19.

Trying to keep up with the whole world is impossible, so there is no way to really have accurate data from an institution trying to track the entire pandemic.

Also keep in mind that the new cases are not expected to peak in many places (including CA) until early May, and it will be some time after that before things start to decline significantly. We're just getting started.

I'm not looking at the JH site.
Regardless of who is at peak or close to peak the fact remains that people are travelling to go to work in an area that has a huge number of confirmed positives at this time and sadly the more north you go the numbers are continuing to climb.
I think that isn't going to help keep the spread here from slowing down.
Maybe if they just quarantine NYC in it's entirety the rest of the state would be better off. Most counties have controllable numbers, except for the downstate ones. From the ramblings of RamblingMad We are already doomed down here

 

[3threebabies]

I think the governor's missteps will sadly come home to roost for many. And still leaving churches open? Is he nuts? About the only thing with more people congregating in one place is sporting events.

In PA, the order does not close religious entities. The governor has been very specific about what measures he can legally issue and enforce. I do not doubt that most, if not all, states can close churches specifically. They can limit any gathering of a certain size no matter the location.

 

[skyblue17]

In the case of NYC, I think the rate of it getting worse is also important. It's going to get worse before it gets better, but with many people social distancing and working from home, the increase will be less than if everyone was still going about their lives. It's going to still take time to flatten, especially if testing capabilities are increasing.

 

[JimMIA]

I'm not looking at the JH site.
Regardless of who is at peak or close to peak the fact remains that people are travelling to go to work in an area that has a huge number of confirmed positives at this time and sadly the more north you go the numbers are continuing to climb.
I think that isn't going to help keep the spread here from slowing down.
Maybe if they just quarantine NYC in it's entirety the rest of the state would be better off. Most counties have controllable numbers, except for the downstate ones. From the ramblings of RamblingMad We are already doomed down here

I believe the governor was trying to get the mayor of NYC to close some stuff down...without any success.

 

[JimMIA]

In PA, the order does not close religious entities. The governor has been very specific about what measures he can legally issue and enforce. I do not doubt that most, if not all, states can close churches specifically. They can limit any gathering of a certain size no matter the location.

There's another important point in there. The powers of governors, mayors, etc vary hugely from state to state.

In some states, the governor can just pronounce, "Make it so." and it's official. But in other states there are restrictions. I saw a news story this morning where the governor of Michigan had to ask their legislature to extend their stay at home order, because only the legislature has that power in MI.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

There's another important point in there. The powers of governors, mayors, etc vary hugely from state to state.

In some states, the governor can just pronounce, "Make it so." and it's official. But in other states there are restrictions. I saw a news story this morning where the governor of Michigan had to ask their legislature to extend their stay at home order, because only the legislature has that power in MI.

In the state next to me a Bass Pro was ordered to shut down because they were considered non-essential. Bass Pro appealed and won. Turns out a state law "prohibits the state, county or any municipality from restricting gun sales during an "emergency."" So they get to stay open but can only sell guns and ammo nothing else. I doubt that was what they wanted only be able to sell but still.

That state is not under a stay at home order but the county that business is located in is under a stay at home order. Sounds backwards I know about gun sales just using that as an example where there are limits to such orders.

I don't blame any side really. Many of these stay at home orders were put together quickly and even though many had well thought out parts to them doubtful they had the time to research every little bit of laws out there.

 

[Hikergirl]

I believe the governor was trying to get the mayor of NYC to close some stuff down...without any success.

Yeah, the truth of the matter is there are a lot of people working in NYC but not living there. Even with things shut down, if they are essential then they have to go to work.
It is really impossible to keep everyone from going in and out.

 

[Dan Murphy]

There's another important point in there. The powers of governors, mayors, etc vary hugely from state to state.

In some states, the governor can just pronounce, "Make it so." and it's official. But in other states there are restrictions. I saw a news story this morning where the governor of Michigan had to ask their legislature to extend their stay at home order, because only the legislature has that power in MI.

Good reason to do it at the national level.

 

[sam_gordon]

So they get to stay open but can only sell guns and ammo nothing else.

Great. So Liquor stores and Gun stores are BOTH "essential"!

"Watch this! Hold my beer!"

And before anyone gets all upset, I'm poking fun.

 

[JimMIA]

Good reason to do it at the national level.

I disagree. A national response is an easy one-liner for a politician, but in the real world it probably would be a disaster. There are also a lot of legal restrictions on what the federal government can and cannot do.

Local and state governments can, and do, step up. They also know their local situations far better than anyone in the national government, and can tailor their responses to local conditions.

Even statewide regulation in larger states is often a bad idea. States like California, Texas, Florida, New York are very large geographically and very different from one part of the state to the other. If local governments will do a good job, it's often better to let them handle things. You occasionally get a situation like NYC where a local official refuses to act, but that's rare.

 

[AggieDizzer]

Question about the graphs (which are very impressive by the way...I wish I had graph skills like that). So they seem to project that this thing will be effectively "over" by the start of the summer. ("Assuming full social distancing" disclaimer noted. Big assumption. ) Take NY's graph below...suggesting that this epidemic will have passed in May seems incredibly optimistic at this point, barring a medical breakthrough. Even with social distancing.