Sorry all - another long one.
The only way to really see which movie will be a classic is to wait fifty years. I think any film that can be enjoyed by an entirely different generation deserves that title. It means that the film transcends the mundane and temporary issues of its time and really talks about the human condition. And fifty years isnt all that long when you consider that Shakespeare is several centuries old, the plays of Rome and Greece are in the thousands of years and fables and myths go back before even writing.
But since we dont have the time to wait until the middle of this century to figure out whats going to still be around, we can guess. So here in descending order is the Fearless Predications from The Dark Side. Youre all invited to come back in fifty years to flame this post
I think that the one modern Disney animated film to definitely make classic status will be Beauty and The Beast. I think it is by far the best-made film of the lot in terms of story, characters, pacing and music. Everything in the film works together, although I want to see if the new Human Again segment hurts more than it helps. It also has the strongest themes or morals; ones that will be as true five hundred years from now as well as fifty years (I suppose this is the wrong place to go into a deep analysis).
The Hunchback of Notre Dame will be considered a near miss. It has all the elements except for a strong enough script and because of that the film simply never comes together. I think critics will view this one more favorably as the years pass just because of its individual components, but it wont be popular. Instead of spending the money to make an IMAX version of The Lion King, Id spend the money to straighten out this film and turn it into the classic it should have been (hint, loose the goat and the stone guys).
The Little Mermaid will have some shelf life because the movie is so well put together. The music and its characters are its strengths, but the theres more to life than marriage theme was out-of-date even when the movie was first released. Then again after watching the news coverage coming from certain parts of this planet, maybe a story about independence and right to decide ones own fate still needs to spread after all.
I would put The Lion King next. It has a strong story and a strong theme, but the music is beginning to date already (when was the last time you heard Can You Feel The Love Tonight outside of a wedding reception?) and the disconnect between the plot and the musical numbers weakens the movie overall. In a funny way, I think the stage play will actually outlive the movie because the play works so much better.
Of those in the runner up and dont have a chance category, Id put Tarzan first because it could have been an outstanding film. The problem was the filmmakers lacked the confidence to really pull it off. It has some incredible animation and imagery and the one of the best modern-era themes (the nature of family and belonging), but far too many cute elements were in there just to be cute (and to hype the plush sales) and the films thin story completely falls apart the moment the guns get pulled out. One more pass through the screenwriting software and this could have ranked just below Beauty.
Aladdin will be hurt of all things by Robin Williams performance. A lot of jokes already go over the heads of people who cant remember the first George Bush we had as president and its only going to get worse over time. A good film, but its kind of like watching a film of a Will Rodgers comedy routine I knows its funny but just I dont get the in-jokes about Roosevelts New Deal plan. The others: Mulan, Pocahontas, Hercules, Oliver and Company, Emperors New Groove, et al have already faded from the publics memory. Lastly, people are far more likely to have fond memories of Jar Jar Binks than they will have of any of the direct-to-video sequels.
Lastly for Shrek, as much as I like the film Id put it in the not a chance category. The films story is timeless, but its presentation is aimed solely for this generation and for these times. Besides the topical references, I dont think (and I fervently hope) that future viewers wont have such a jaded view of human nature and of films. Shrek works now which is why the film was so popular, but it wont work ten years from now.
For a really good insight to Hollywood at the moment, the LA Times ran an excellent column today about Franchise Movies. It explains everything you need to know about Harry Potter and why all the summer movies have numbers after their titles. The article is on-line at:
http://www.calendarlive.com/top/1,1419,L-LATimes-Movies-X!ArticleDetail-47216,00.html.
Mr. Pirate, let me head done the coast a bit and rig up one of the Marine LCATs from Camp Pendleton. Your movie will be on the way.