So, the more that I think about it and talk to people IRL, the more I think opening day ROTR might not be crazy. It still might be! But some thoughts:
- As SWGE taught us, many people will stay away from openings due to their perception of crowds.
- Getting into a BG is a morning thing. Disneyland people are not morning people. This is why DL at rope drop is typically so glorious. I think WDW, with SO MANY PEOPLE staying on-site and such a higher percentage of tourists, is just a different animal. Disneyland’s crowds show up later. A new evening parade? It’s gonna be bananas. But getting there at 6am on a Friday? Ehhhhh... are thousands and thousands of people going to put forth that effort? I think when we hit Spring Break (or President’s Day week), there will be a lot more tourists flooding the gates in the wee hours. But probably not so much this weekend. Hotels don’t look crazy, either.
- There is a limited pool of people who can attend something on a Friday morning.
- A lot of local people have let their APs expire. I’d be very interested to see numbers on APs, because anecdotally, over half of the people I knew with passes a year ago no longer have them. I do know a bunch of people planning to use the three-day ticket deal, but none of them are using it this weekend, because of the whole crowd-perception thing.
- Is Star Wars really such a draw right now, and is riding on opening day in CA important to a huge amount of people? The fandom is not necessarily vibing on Disney’s work here... I think there is a lot of excitement and demand for this ride, no doubt. But I don’t know if it’s a situation where people are feeling the urge to go on opening day. (I mean, I am! But I don’t know anyone else who is. Including a large group of 20-something Disney and SW fans that I was chatting with the other night... they’re the types who rush to the parks to snap up the latest spirit jersey, but NONE of them plan to hit the parks on the 17th.)
Anyway, of course this is all pure speculation. Maybe there are 15,000 people planning to get there before the park opens on opening day. But I kind of don’t think so. Maybe. Ha.