RoFR back??

[tom1944]

I just closed on my 160 for $122 about a week ago

Do you know what date the deed was registered

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Do you know what date the deed was registered

I was going to ask for the book and page number......

 

[tom1944]

I was going to ask for the book and page number......

Do you like the site since they changed it?

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Do you like the site since they changed it?

I didn't use it enough before the change to know it was changed.....

I can look up my deeds, and the other things I need to without hassle, so in my eyes it is great....

I wanted to try and search all BLT deeds by property address, like a normal title search and could find where to do that...

But in all fairness on a scale of 1 to 10, I put about 1.8 worth of effort into it...

SO the failure may be completely mine

 

[Bearval]

Do you know what date the deed was registered

It officially closed August 8th

 

[tom1944]

It officially closed August 8th

Thanks

If I make an offer on a contract soon, I can point to your sale if the broker makes a snide comment.

You paid about 15% of the other sales recorded on the 8th and 9th.

 

[maui22]

This says they are set to "begin" talks on September 30th....not close the transaction (or even reach a definitive agreement). Absent signing a deal, they aren't going to be able to stuff the cost into Q3 2023.

You are right. I saw the news live, but was a bit distracted. Didn’t realize the person they quoted for valuation was Comcast CEO. Still seems Disney wants this done ASAP and Comcast wants money ASAP or they would not have both agreed to a newer timeline.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Hi everyone— I haven’t been tracking the ROFR activity as closely as I did the first half of the year when I was picking up contracts but has anybody on this board seen or heard of any ROFRs being exercised since the original handful that happened a month or two ago? I looked on the main thread and didn’t see any taken contracts listed…but I swear it happened to as least one member of this forum. Did I hallucinate it?

 

[Sandisw]

Hi everyone— I haven’t been tracking the ROFR activity as closely as I did the first half of the year when I was picking up contracts but has anybody on this board seen or heard of any ROFRs being exercised since the original handful that happened a month or two ago? I looked on the main thread and didn’t see any taken contracts listed…but I swear it happened to as least one member of this forum. Did I hallucinate it?

I have not heard or seen any reports of more.

 

[Spivey378]

Someone should use a self-learning model trained on historical ROFR data and other tangential data to learn patterns.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Someone should use a self-learning model trained on historical ROFR data and other tangential data to learn patterns.

I’m not an expert on machine learning but I don’t think it’s a good candidate. $/pt regardless of banked/stripped or closing details is clearly the best predictor of whether a contract will be taken. I’m assuming you’re hoping to predict the likelihood of a contract being taken, but Disney’s goals/objectives change over time and we don’t have insight into those. So the past doesn’t necessarily inform the future and there’s no tangential data to tell us what Disney’s objectives are or we’re at a specific time.

Other issues are that the DISboards data is a small fraction of the resale market and the comptroller data isn’t clear as to which contracts get taken/doesn’t have all the relevant info. If we marry up the DISboards data with the comptroller data we may be able to see why some contracts were taken (if Disney was targeting a specific unit). However that wouldn’t really help to predict anything and I’m reluctant to do that for privacy reasons.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I didn’t see it shared earlier, but stumbled across the DVCRM ROFR write up for August just now: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-august-23/

They appear to confirm that (at least for them) there were no ROFR exercised beyond that first spurt. I don’t know that it’s possible to draw any solid conclusions about Disney’s motivations, but it doesn’t appear they are trying to ramp up ROFR for now.

I always take the DVCRM numbers with a grain of salt because they tend to price at the high end of resale market (looks likey the managed to resell the average VGF contract *above* DVD direct for some months this summer!), but their trend continues to show a gradual decline for most properties (and steep for CCV). Will be interesting to see if Disney yanks a few more contracts here and there to support its newer resorts or to try to keep the older resorts from dropping too low.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Other issues are that the DISboards data is a small fraction of the resale market and the comptroller data isn’t clear as to which contracts get taken/doesn’t have all the relevant info.

Take this with a grain of salt obviously, but I thought I heard @DerekDeBoer say that DVC Resale Market has something like 65% of the total, worldwide, resale market, so at least the monthly ROFR report that @pkrieger2287 puts out should be a reasonable representation of total buy-backs. Would still need to be cross-referenced with the comptroller, but it should get a pretty good sampling.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Take this with a grain of salt obviously, but I thought I heard @DerekDeBoer say that DVC Resale Market has something like 65%of the total, worldwide, resale market, so at least the monthly ROFR report that @pkrieger2287 puts out should be a reasonable representation of total buy-backs. Would still need to be cross-referenced with the comptroller, but it should get a pretty good sampling.

I’ll put out some broker stats soon but I believe they have a little over 1/3 of the listings. Could be a bigger share of the sales though. Would be cool if they could share their data too…maybe if we ask reeeeeally nice

 

[pkrieger2287]

I’ll put out some broker stats soon but I believe they have a little over 1/3 of the listings. Could be a bigger share of the sales though. Would be cool if they could share their data too…maybe if we ask reeeeeally nice

We gotta keep you guessing a little bit...

 

[ocdb8r1]

Hey Everyone - Now that a few weeks have passed, I wanted to ask two questions to assist with an upcoming DVC Show on this topic:

1) Why do you think Disney recently bought back several contracts?
2) What do you think Disney's long-term strategy with ROFR should be?

Thanks for your help!

Paul - do you and Amy have air conditioning? You two are looking very shiny in this episode referenced above and the most recent "Love it or Don't Love it" episode.

Disclaimer: I would not have posted this slight jab had Paul not referred to he and his wife (among others) as a "motley crew." I took that as he can take a jest or two.

 

[pkrieger2287]

Paul - do you and Amy have air conditioning? You two are looking very shiny in this episode referenced above and the most recent "Love it or Don't Love it" episode.

Disclaimer: I would not have posted this slight jab had Paul not referred to he and his wife (among others) as a "motley crew." I took that as he can take a jest or two.

I'm in need of a professional make-up artist but my budget is zero... I've always had a bit of a shine to my face and forehead. Anyone got some good powder recommendations?

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I’ll put out some broker stats soon but I believe they have a little over 1/3 of the listings. Could be a bigger share of the sales though. Would be cool if they could share their data too…maybe if we ask reeeeeally nice

Good luck. Most private companies, regardless of their industry will NOT share this information. It's proprietary.

Based on that, you can also take companies' claims of "being the largest" with a grain of salt. "Biggest/largest" can mean a number of things. You only need one data point to support it. It could mean "biggest" in terms of # of people employed, it could mean most active listings, it could mean closed sales etc. For a company to make this claim, all they need is one sound data point that is provable to claim it. They don't have to disclose what they are claiming to be the biggest in.

That being said, I do believe DVCRM is one of the largest as it relates to DVC resales. They have the infrastructure to support large amounts of contract volume - both buying and selling. Not all resale companies have that. Just look at the amount of Brokers they employ -- Another stat they could use to claim of being the "biggest".

 

[DonMacGregor]

Good luck. Most private companies, regardless of their industry will NOT share this information. It's proprietary.

Based on that, you can also take companies' claims of "being the largest" with a grain of salt. "Biggest/largest" can mean a number of things. You only need one data point to support it. It could mean "biggest" in terms of # of people employed, it could mean most active listings, it could mean closed sales etc. For a company to make this claim, all they need is one sound data point that is provable to claim it. They don't have to disclose what they are claiming to be the biggest in.

That being said, I do believe DVCRM is one of the largest as it relates to DVC resales. They have the infrastructure to support large amounts of contract volume - both buying and selling. Not all resale companies have that. Just look at the amount of Brokers they employ -- Another stat they could use to claim of being the "biggest".

Agree 100%, but Derek did specifically say they had 65% of "the global resale market", so that should narrow it down to either number of contracts, or number of points...

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Take this with a grain of salt obviously, but I thought I heard @DerekDeBoer say that DVC Resale Market has something like 65% of the total, worldwide, resale market, so at least the monthly ROFR report that @pkrieger2287 puts out should be a reasonable representation of total buy-backs. Would still need to be cross-referenced with the comptroller, but it should get a pretty good sampling.

Agree 100%, but Derek did specifically say they had 65% of "the global resale market", so that should narrow it down to either number of contracts, or number of points...

From what I hear...the silent running joke is to believe 65% of what he says.