Travel Changes?

[disneyholic family]

Yes I'm going on the England/France ABD leaving March 12th. Are you in the UK? How is it over there? (Assuming you're in the Uk...)
I'm honestly so far not concerned at all about the London portion, but France has me worrying a bit because they're cases are going up. They're at 100 cases as of today according to WHO. That makes them number 2 in Europe behind Italy.
The other thing is that the Louvre is now closed. What's next...Versailles? Eiffel Tower? At some point this trip that I'm spending so much money on for my family is going to start looking very different than when we planned it.

So anyway yes I'll be making a decision by the end of this week. I'm trying to hold out as long as I can incase ABD cancels so I can get a refund. But there's also a good chance that I might still go if they don't cancel because of my blind faith in the Disney brand to protect me! lol

Seriously though, it sucks. I'm not sure how this is going to play out. I'm making plans for a backup incase it falls through. One thing is for sure I am NOT staying home (in the cold northeast) for vacation!

The number of confirmed cases in France as of yesterday was already 130, not 100.
Disney needs to cancel your trip.

As of this morning, the UK only has 36 confirmed cases, but i believe that 12 of those are from yesterday.
So it seems possible that it may break past containment in the UK as well, though the UK authorities have been pretty stringent in their dealings with the disease.

No i'm not in the UK, i'm in israel.

Italy seems to be having the greatest impact in Europe and here as well.
Our 4 non-diamond princess patients are travelers who returned from Italy.
From what i've read, many of the newly ill in the UK also returned from Italy.
We have 7 confirmed cases, 3 from the diamond princess and 4 confirmed last week, all people who had just returned from Italy.

One of the Diamond Princess cases is interesting.
He was hospitalized in Japan (taken off the ship).
Last week he tested negative and was released from the japanese hospital.
Upon arrival in Israel on Friday he was tested again and found to be positive for the virus and sent back into quarantine.
So is it a problem with the testing being done in Japan?
Possibly, given that the other 2 diamond princess patients here both also tested negative in japan, but positive when they arrived here.

Edit: i believe we now have 7 non-diamond princess cases, all related to travel to Italy.
and Jordan just confirmed their first case, also someone who just returned from Italy.
.
.

 

[DisneyWishes14]

There's probably no advantage to making a firm decision right now when you still have a month until final payment.

Delta suspended flights to Milan for a while and appears to be offering refunds for those. So if the region still has the same advisories for your July trip, I would guess that you could get your money back from Delta. If you booked through ABD air, then ABD would also refund your airfare.

https://www.travelmarketreport.com/articles/Delta-Air-Lines-Temporarily-Suspends-Flights-to-Milan
I see three options for your situation:

1) You can pay in full. Then you are in the same situation as me, waiting for your trip and leaving it to the CDC and ABD to cancel if they judge the risk is too high. You will get all your money back if they cancel. But does your risk tolerance match that of CDC and ABD? As others have said, I do believe that Disney won't risk damaging its brand by proceeding with a trip that they should have cancelled.

2) You can switch to a different ABD trip before the PIF date. But then you have to predict the future and pick a trip and date that won't have the same problem. Given that Italy is in the Schengen region, which covers virtually all the European destinations that ABD goes to, it is hard to be certain that any particular trip will remain unaffected.

3) You can "park" your deposit and not commit to a specific trip for now, but I don't know how long it can stay parked.

Good luck with your decision.

Could someone please clarify "parking" a deposit? I have two ABDs coming up. I could actually get my deposit back on one of them if I cancel by Wednesday, but I would really like to take the trip if this all blows over, so I'm not sure what to do. Our other deposit is non-refundable at this point. I would certainly love the ability to "park" deposits as opposed to having to transfer deposits to other trips at this point to maintain a little flexibility. Any info is greatly appreciated.

Non-ABD related, but we are supposed to go to Mexico and then WDW in just a few weeks. My only concern, at this point, in traveling to Mexico, is medical care and a language barrier should one of us get sick (but, then again, that could happen regardless of Covid-19). We are traveling to an area that has zero cases so, perhaps my concern is unsubstantiated.

 

[lovetotravel]

I wish I new about parking a deposit as well in detail. After I cancelled my ABD Asia, I moved it to another trip this summer that I felt was "safer" due to no cases, but here we are...more cases so I assume I loose my whole trip if I cancel since I moved monies to the new trip, which I realize now was not the best move. So I am going to have to go on that trip because it is with ABD and I trust they will cancel if there are significant safety concerns. But I am hoping that if Disney cancels, I get a refund if this was already a moved trip or let me move it again.

 

[Renarr]

A little bit more to support the notion that cases are almost certainly underreported, and thus that true mortality rate is lower than reported:

https://threader.app/thread/1233970271318503426
The author, Trevor Bedford, studies this kind of stuff for one of our local area hospitals, as I understand it.

 

[lovetotravel]

A little bit more to support the notion that cases are almost certainly underreported, and thus that true mortality rate is lower than reported:

https://threader.app/thread/1233970271318503426
The author, Trevor Bedford, studies this kind of stuff for one of our local area hospitals, as I understand it.

Yes I have feared that cases are underreport, delayed, never tested, or waiting to be tested!

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

I am an infectious disease nurse practitioner who has been keeping an eye on COVID-19 since early January. I work closely with UF and round in their Gainesville and Jacksonville hospitals. As someone else mentioned in this thread please, only get your information from the WHO and/or CDC. Many news articles I have read seem to have out dated or incorrect information with questionable sources.

Our ID department works closely with the FL health department who has been in contact with the CDC daily. Everyone I speak to is hoping the tied turns once the weather warms globally. Also of note is that there has been some success with current antiviral medications. Using broad-spectrum antiviral drugs like Nucleoside analogues may disrupt the viral infection until a novel antiviral becomes available.

Several groups of researchers are currently working to develop a primate model to study COVID-19 to establish/fast track therapies and for testing potential vaccines in addition to providing a better understanding of virus-host interactions. This will get solved, it’s just a matter of time (I am an eternal optimist).

We currently are booked on a Greece ABD May 8th and have plans to be in Paris/DLP from May 17th-25th and I am staying hopefully optimistic.

Not ABD related, but what are your thoughts on the hordes of college kids that are getting ready to descend on Florida for Spring Break? My daughter and 40 of her friends are leaving Virginia for Daytona Beach in five days. They are staying for a week. I am hoping they are ahead of widespread community spread and will be ok. They will be around tons of other college kids, not necessarily the general public though.

As it is, I think when all the kids come back to college campuses after traveling far and wide over Spring Break, some will bring the virus back to campuses. I think it's inevitable, but I don't want to knowingly put my DD in harm's way.

 

[laceltris3]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/health/wuhan-evacuee-san-antonio/index.html
The thing is that I don't feel like we are necessarily any safer here. Also, in the US we certainly have many more cases than have been reported. As of last week we had tested fewer than 500. China can now test 1.6 million per week. SK has also much better testing capabilities now (over 65K tested). Also the WSJ is reporting there was a manufacturing defect in some of the tests manufactured by the CDC, aside from the possible contamination in the lab.

https://www.axios.com/cdc-lab-coronavirus-contaminated-6dc9726d-dea3-423f-b5ad-eb7b1e44c2e2.html

A week ago in The Atlantic a Harvard epidemiologist said it was likely 40 to 70% of the world population could contract it in the next year. At the time it sounded crazy. Now not so much.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/I know the real risk, including with mortality, is the strain on healthcare systems in a broad outbreak, but at this point, I don't think there is much we can do other than be prepared to be quarantined for a few weeks.

 

[Magnum_PI]

The thing is that I don't feel like we are necessarily any safer here.

Lol, it may be pessimistic, but I largely agree with this sentiment. On the other hand, the silver lining to that (to me) it makes travel to non-CDC Level 3 Warning places seem less risky. I'll only be withdrawing from my upcoming ABD if Disney decides to cancel. And I'm one of those immunocompromised people you keep hearing about, lol. I live in New York City. If I get it here, it's going to be at work or on the subway most likely. Wash your hands frequently no matter where you're going (or not going), guys...!

 

[*WDW*Groupie*]

Not ABD related, but what are your thoughts on the hordes of college kids that are getting ready to descend on Florida for Spring Break? My daughter and 40 of her friends are leaving Virginia for Daytona Beach in five days. They are staying for a week. I am hoping they are ahead of widespread community spread and will be ok. They will be around tons of other college kids, not necessarily the general public though.

As it is, I think when all the kids come back to college campuses after traveling far and wide over Spring Break, some will bring the virus back to campuses. I think it's inevitable, but I don't want to knowingly put my DD in harm's way.

According to local news there have been 2 confirmed cases in Florida. One in the Sarasota area and the other in the Tampa area. I agree with you and the fear about college kids bringing it back to campus is real. I have heard that one very prestigious college (a friend has a daughter that attends) is prepared to cancel the spring semester if anyone tests positive after spring break.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

According to local news there have been 2 confirmed cases in Florida. One in the Sarasota area and the other in the Tampa area. I agree with you and the fear about college kids bringing it back to campus is real. I have heard that one very prestigious college (a friend has a daughter that attends) is prepared to cancel the spring semester if anyone tests positive after spring break.

A teacher I work with has a niece at Northwestern. She said Northwestern is on the quarter system vs Semester System. Her niece told her the university is thinking of cancelling Spring Break all together. Not a bad idea.

 

[aggiedog]

There's been several articles in the news discussing the 1918 flu pandemic and containment strategies used then, or not. Philadelphia, in a "rose colored glasses" attitude that it really wasn't all that bad (partly because our government was not completely transparent about the facts in an effort to "keep up morale"), went ahead with a huge parade soon after 100's of troops came home from Europe to the city. They had a huge outbreak and one of the highest numbers of fatalities in the country. Other cities, that were more cautious and canceled large gatherings, had much lower rates of flu and deaths.

Some of the concern is not "could I die from this" since most likely any given person won't, but could I bring this back with me and infect more people. While I'm not an alarmist, I do think perhaps not traveling and not attending large gatherings may be in everyone's best interest for a while.

 

[Networth]

Not ABD related, but what are your thoughts on the hordes of college kids that are getting ready to descend on Florida for Spring Break? My daughter and 40 of her friends are leaving Virginia for Daytona Beach in five days. They are staying for a week. I am hoping they are ahead of widespread community spread and will be ok. They will be around tons of other college kids, not necessarily the general public though.

As it is, I think when all the kids come back to college campuses after traveling far and wide over Spring Break, some will bring the virus back to campuses. I think it's inevitable, but I don't want to knowingly put my DD in harm's way.

My feelings are that it will likely spread to some of the college students (not necessary your daughter or her friends). The spring breakers will be around the general public in hotels, bars, restaurants and stores which are all staffed or frequented by the general public. Intoxicated college students are not known to make the most sound choices. Not washing your hands, not touching your face, sharing food/drinks and attributing signs/symptoms of possible illness to being hungover is obviously not helpful. Also if I am being blunt many of those students will be in close physical contact with one another to some degree. Many of these students will be from all over the country.

However, COVID-19 has demonstrated it can be quite mild in healthy adults. So the question is will some spring breaker get sick enough to be tested and therefore be shown to be positive for COVID-19?

 

[Plutofan]

It looks like ABD is canceling some tours. I just talked to them about our June Italy tour and asked about if they had to cancel any and they told me Italy tours for March/April are being canceled today. You will need to confirm that this information is correct.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

My feelings are that it will likely spread to some of the college students (not necessary your daughter or her friends). The spring breakers will be around the general public in hotels, bars, restaurants and stores which are all staffed or frequented by the general public. Intoxicated college students are not known to make the most sound choices. Not washing your hands, not touching your face, not sharing food/drinks and attributing signs/symptoms of possible illness to being hungover is obviously not helpful. Also if I am being blunt many of those students will be in close physical contact with one another to some degree. Many of these students will be from all over the country.

However, COVID-19 has demonstrated it can be quite mild in healthy adults. So the question is will some spring breaker get sick enough to be tested and therefore shown to be positive for COVID-19?

Thank you for answering. I agree with everything you said. My daughter is going with her boyfriend and his fraternity, so she won't be getting "physically close" to anyone she is not regularly physically close to (haha), and luckily, the group likes to hang out together vs with outside folks. But bars, restaurants, grocery stores - you are right, those will be a problem.

 

[*WDW*Groupie*]

I just got an e-mail from Austin Adventures and found this very interesting. It would be very nice if ABD also implemented a "lightened" cancellation policy:

Now in an honest and sincere attempt to calm travel fears without making light of a serious subject. Last time I checked, we do not have a crystal ball, and no one knows where we will be in 30-60-90 days. While I remain confident, the real experts are working diligently to get this situation under control, and it will not adversely affect our summer adventures. To this end, we are starting by implementing an immediate “lightened” cancellation policy. Effective immediately, any booked traveler with Austin Adventures has the “right” to postpone any adventure and transfer or apply all associated AA related expenses to another adventure either at a different destination or future date without penalty. No questions asked. Call it Peace of Mind Insurance. These changes must be requested at least 45 days before scheduled travel. An escrow account can be set up without having to commit to where or when. Period! We are suggesting holding off booking air travel until we get closer to travel dates, interestingly enough this could have the benefit of reduced airfares. You might also consider “Cancel for any reason” Trip insurance offered by our carrier Trip Mate. Its an added expense but might give you that peace of mind you are looking for. https://scenicgroup.tripmate.com/main/trip-cancellation-and-cancel-for-any-reason/

 

[Calfan]

I just got an e-mail from Austin Adventures and found this very interesting. It would be very nice if ABD also implemented a "lightened" cancellation policy:

Now in an honest and sincere attempt to calm travel fears without making light of a serious subject. Last time I checked, we do not have a crystal ball, and no one knows where we will be in 30-60-90 days. While I remain confident, the real experts are working diligently to get this situation under control, and it will not adversely affect our summer adventures. To this end, we are starting by implementing an immediate “lightened” cancellation policy. Effective immediately, any booked traveler with Austin Adventures has the “right” to postpone any adventure and transfer or apply all associated AA related expenses to another adventure either at a different destination or future date without penalty. No questions asked. Call it Peace of Mind Insurance. These changes must be requested at least 45 days before scheduled travel. An escrow account can be set up without having to commit to where or when. Period! We are suggesting holding off booking air travel until we get closer to travel dates, interestingly enough this could have the benefit of reduced airfares. You might also consider “Cancel for any reason” Trip insurance offered by our carrier Trip Mate. Its an added expense but might give you that peace of mind you are looking for. https://scenicgroup.tripmate.com/main/trip-cancellation-and-cancel-for-any-reason/

I got the same email as a past Austin Adventures traveler. Agree that it is a very nice move on their part.

 

[disneyholic family]

I just got an e-mail from Austin Adventures and found this very interesting. It would be very nice if ABD also implemented a "lightened" cancellation policy:

Now in an honest and sincere attempt to calm travel fears without making light of a serious subject. Last time I checked, we do not have a crystal ball, and no one knows where we will be in 30-60-90 days. While I remain confident, the real experts are working diligently to get this situation under control, and it will not adversely affect our summer adventures. To this end, we are starting by implementing an immediate “lightened” cancellation policy. Effective immediately, any booked traveler with Austin Adventures has the “right” to postpone any adventure and transfer or apply all associated AA related expenses to another adventure either at a different destination or future date without penalty. No questions asked. Call it Peace of Mind Insurance. These changes must be requested at least 45 days before scheduled travel. An escrow account can be set up without having to commit to where or when. Period! We are suggesting holding off booking air travel until we get closer to travel dates, interestingly enough this could have the benefit of reduced airfares. You might also consider “Cancel for any reason” Trip insurance offered by our carrier Trip Mate. Its an added expense but might give you that peace of mind you are looking for. https://scenicgroup.tripmate.com/main/trip-cancellation-and-cancel-for-any-reason/

that makes so much business sense.
I don't know why disney isn't doing the same or at least a more lenient policy than is currently in place.
.

 

[Donalyn]

The Harvard guy's prediction that 40 to 70% of the world population would be infected within a year didn't sound crazy to me a week ago. Containment never was a realistic goal, given the time frame before the seriousness was recognized and China started acting. This hasn't been containable since it became apparent that you can pass it along before you start to feel sick. Add that to the interconnected world we live in and it is every where (even if the reported case numbers don't show it yet).

We all just need to prepare for a bumpy year and hope that we can spread out the cases over time so that everyone in need of high end medical intervention can get the care that they need. We also need to improve our testing capabilities.

I also believe that at some point, this will become like the flu, after we all get our first exposure to it and develop some immunity. But getting to that point will, most likely, be painful on many fronts. (And I really worry for the people in countries with less medical infrastructure.)

 

[lovetotravel]

We just cancelled OYO trip to Netherlands for spring break. Staying home seemed to be the most enjoyable thing at this point. Some things I learned about canceling trips: Right now, Delta is waiving all change fees and penalties for international flights and are issuing a credit to be used 1 year from original ticketed date. If you have non-ABD insurance, you can transfer the insurance to another trip if they allow it, mine did not but some will. I don't know if ABD allows you to move your insurance to a new trip without a fee if they cancel your trip. We had minimal loss, except for a private tour guide who charged us time for working on our itinerary and tickets purchased, but refunded most of our deposit.

 

[Eastridge]

Could someone please clarify "parking" a deposit? I have two ABDs coming up. I could actually get my deposit back on one of them if I cancel by Wednesday, but I would really like to take the trip if this all blows over, so I'm not sure what to do. Our other deposit is non-refundable at this point. I would certainly love the ability to "park" deposits as opposed to having to transfer deposits to other trips at this point to maintain a little flexibility. Any info is greatly appreciated.

I have never parked a deposit so I don't know the details, but I heard about others doing that. Maybe someone who has done that can comment, or calling ABD directly would provide the definitive answer.