TROPICAL STORM KATRINA - This morning's update in FIRST post

[JimMIA]

Things are good, and we have a little indication for your travel planning. A little while ago the storm was 55 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale, and the airport was still open. So we'll keep our fingers crossed for your plans.

I'd like to see that FSU (Home of the Florida State Seminoles, NCAA twits notwithstanding!) link. Do they show all the models, or just the FSU Super-ensemble?

 

[JandD Mom]

Things are good, and we have a little indication for your travel planning. A little while ago the storm was 55 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale, and the airport was still open. So we'll keep our fingers crossed for your plans.

I'd like to see that FSU (Home of the Florida State Seminoles, NCAA twits notwithstanding!) link. Do they show all the models, or just the FSU Super-ensemble?

Jim,

Here is the link for the models FSU Computer Models

This link takes you directly to the GDFL page. However, if you click on "main page" on the top, it will take you to the links for various other models.

From what I read, the NHS seems to be paying closest attention to the GDFL.

Also, FYI, Southwest air ceases operations to FLL and PBI effective 5 pm tonight. However, all flights to FLL from my home airport (PHL) are a go.

 

[rinkwide]

My favorite tracking site by far:

Boat U.S. Hurricane Center

Here's a current image. The detail is amazing, you can even see where Katrina "bounced" off Castaway Cay (8/25/2005 0300 UTC).

 

[JimMIA]

Jim,

Here is the link for the models FSU Computer Models

Thanks, I'll check that out.

From what I read, the NHS seems to be paying closest attention to the GDFL.

No, actually GFDL is the one they've been ignoring this time, because it's been way out of line with the other models. It's been the "naughty model," calling for Katrina to sweep around the Keys with 128 mph winds! 4-5 days out, GFDL goes right down the middle of the models, so it is about the same as the later stages of the forecast -- but we sure HOPE it's wrong for the early part (today and tomorrow).

Also, FYI, Southwest air ceases operations to FLL and PBI effective 5 pm tonight. However, all flights to FLL from my home airport (PHL) are a go.

Right, FLL is closing at 7 PM tonight, but I'm sure it will be open in the morning.

 

[JimMIA]

My favorite tracking site by far:

Boat U.S. Hurricane Center

Here's a current image. The detail is amazing, you can even see where Katrina "bounced" off Castaway Cay (8/25/2005 0300 UTC).

Even better is the dent that keeps Miami out of the wind field! That is a good site, which doesn't surprise me...great insurance company!

 

[rinkwide]

Even better is the dent that keeps Miami out of the wind field!

How convenient.

 

[JandD Mom]

Thanks, I'll check that out.

No, actually GFDL is the one they've been ignoring this time, because it's been way out of line with the other models. It's been the "naughty model," calling for Katrina to sweep around the Keys with 128 mph winds! 4-5 days out, GFDL goes right down the middle of the models, so it is about the same as the later stages of the forecast -- but we sure HOPE it's wrong for the early part (today and tomorrow).

Right, FLL is closing at 7 PM tonight, but I'm sure it will be open in the morning.

Jim,

I thought it was the GFS that they have been ignoring. Isn't that the model that had the hurricane stopping half way through FLA and making a sharp right turn north and going straight up?

Rinkwide, I love the boat US site. Thanks!

 

[JandD Mom]

Another question,

Why am I hearing that it won't make landfall until early am? At this rate, it looks like it will hit before midnight?

 

[JimMIA]

Jim,

I thought it was the GFS that they have been ignoring. Isn't that the model that had the hurricane stopping half way through FLA and making a sharp right turn north and going straight up?

Rinkwide, I love the boat US site. Thanks!

Nope. From NHC discussion #8:

THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF FLORIDA FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS TRACK IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SOME
DEGREE...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFDL IS TAKING KATRINA TOO
FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

Sorry about the caps, but that's the way the hurricane dudes type, and I'm too lazy to re-type it. You don't want to read the one where GFDL was predicting 111 kt winds!

Also, I think it's about ashore now. I haven't looked at the tube recently, but last time I looked it was only 35 miles off Pompano Beach. Sure the eye may not reach until midnight, but the storm is certainly almost upon our buds up in Broward.

I guess I should go look...huh? DW just came in and asked if I thought we ought to go out in the rain and take down the pool fence. I should go look.

 

[wtpclc]

Thinking of all our friends in FL this morning. I hope you are all ok!

 

[JimMIA]

Thinking of all our friends in FL this morning. I hope you are all ok!

We're fine, but without power. Working of the last gasp of a UPS. The darn storm followed the one model everybody was saying it would NOT follow and came right over the top of us. Fortunately it was only a Cat 1. We have a lot of cosmetic damage -- trees down, etc.-- but no real damage in our neighborhood. We'll probably be without power for some time...hopefully not more than a couple of days.

There were four people killed, all of them driving around in the middle of the storm. That's tragic, but also 100% preventable.

Be well, and I'll be back when we get power back.

Jim

 

[SleepyatDVC]

Glad you are safe, Jim.

My friiends in the Gables e-mailed pictures to me today. The ficus (sp?) trees all along her street got uprooted. One fell on her car - it's totalled - and one fell on her house - only took down the gutters part of the porch overhang. The weather looked great today and her kids had a great time taking pictures in the debris. The uprooted roots of the trees lifted the ground up taller than a person. But everyone is o'kay.

There's no power at her house so she and her family is staying at her MIL's for now. This "little" storm did more damage in some places in Miami than some of the bigger ones maybe becasue it was a lot closer.

Mom's still trying to contact a neighbor to see if our place in Miami is o'kay.

 

[dianeschlicht]

Just thought it might be nice to bump this up to see if any of the DVC New Orleans friends have surfaced yet to report in.

 

[lsutigger2]

Diane and others: There were reports a few days ago about some of the DVC'ers in the New Orleans area. New Orleans will probably be without power for two-three months. It is a virtual ghost town. They must first get the water out, and then survey what's left. They have started pumping the water out. Now only 60% is under water! (This is according to the national news this evening.)
Don't know all the Louisiana DVC'ers but several had reported in.
I'm in Baton Rouge and things are pretty crazy - lots more people in town in just a few days and no one has adjusted yet. But I have faith that things will settle down and a new "normal" will set in.
Prayers are still welcomed.

 

[Chadm]

We live in Madisonville, LA, which is north of Lake Pontchartrain in St. Tammany Parish. Our home had some moderate damage, but it will be livable as soon as the power and water are turned back on. We didn't flood at all, but the wind and tree damage in our area was pretty severe.

In the meantime we are living with my parents down in Lafourche Parish (Southwest of New Orleans). I'm back at work, but my wife has not been able to go back to work yet and doesn't know when it will happen.

We have DVC trips scheduled for November and January, both using borrowed points. We haven't decided to cancel them yet but probably will, especially if my wife doesn't go back to work. I haven't called Member Services yet, but hopefully they will make an exception and allow us to put those points back into the 2006 use year.

All in all, we were very fortunate. Our thoughts and prayers go out to those who were less fortunate than we were.

 

[wtpclc]

idratherbeinwdw got in touch with tooneric. He and his family are fine, but their home is likely gone, as it was near the first levy to break.

lulu71 also checked in with similar news. There was a thread about it here, but it got moved.