VDH Opening

[Sandisw]

Looks like they quietly removed it. There’s only the reference about TOT and nothing about parking now at the bottom of the points chart.

Awesome. The situation with VGC is a special parking easement with the hotel division so maybe that had not been quite finalized for VDzh when they released the charts so better to be safe than sorry!

 

[ehh]

Looks like they quietly removed it. There’s only the reference about TOT and nothing about parking now at the bottom of the points chart.

Is this posted anywhere publicly? Both points charts listed here for VDH still mention there may be a parking fee.

 

[Wedgeout]

Well if you go to the website and look at the point chart for this resort, that parking park is still listed.

 

[DMPicone]

So the incentives are small and don't start to 125. Seems like most are in the 50-100 point range so that won't do much to sway anyone.

 

[Sandisw]

So the incentives are small and don't start to 125. Seems like most are in the 50-100 point range so that won't do much to sway anyone.

DVD has never put incentives on contracts for less than 100…and 125 seems to be the typical starting level.

So, those wanting less will be paying full price.

 

[Liquidice]

For fun, I did a quick comparison of a purchase at VDH vs VGC using 150 points which seems to be the sweet spot for VDH with the $20 incentive discount. Assuming a 2% annual growth rate of annual dues and a 1% annual growth rate for the Anaheim Transient Tax for just VDH, here is a comparison if you bought VDH vs. VGC direct over time and if you bought VGC at 3 different price points at resale. Assuming the growth rates are reasonable - it actually doesn't make VDH seem that bad over 10 years, even 20 years. I stopped at 37 years because VGC expires in 2060.

 

[MartyParty]

Here is a snippet. This ought to wake folks up!

 

[MartyParty]

For fun, I did a quick comparison of a purchase at VDH vs VGC using 150 points which seems to be the sweet spot for VDH with the $20 incentive discount. Assuming a 2% annual growth rate of annual dues and a 1% annual growth rate for the Anaheim Transient Tax for just VDH, here is a comparison if you bought VDH vs. VGC direct over time and if you bought VGC at 3 different price points at resale. Assuming the growth rates are reasonable - it actually doesn't make VDH seem that bad over 10 years, even 20 years.



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Thanks for the quick calcs. I do have to throw one data outlier in the mix and that is "IF" you can buy VGC now. And if you can buy I wonder what the price will be going forward since there seems to only be one or two contracts for sale at a time.

And to think it was only months ago there were several pages of resale. Kudos to those who own at VGC!

 

[Liquidice]

Thanks for the quick calcs. I do have to throw one data outlier in the mix and that is "IF" you can buy VGC now. And if you can buy I wonder what the price will be going forward since there seems to only be one or two contracts for sale at a time.

And to think it was only months ago there were several pages of resale. Kudos to those who own at VGC!

My opinion - demand is high right now due to pent up demand from VDH and people disappointed with the TOT. Once that dies down, I think inventory will go back to normal for VGC.

 

[Liquidice]

Just got this from my guide: https://dvcexplorer.com/fin/m/VillasatDisneyland_Member_DeveloperCredit.pdf

 

[DMPicone]

Any idea on closing costs yet. I've been looking at 100 and considering 50+50 vs 100 based on the closing costs.

 

[edudansil]

Any idea on closing costs yet. I've been looking at 100 and considering 50+50 vs 100 based on the closing costs.

if you go to the add on tool on the member site it gives you the estimates. Somewhere around $350.

 

[princesscinderella]

I’m done!! Just got off the phone with my guide, two 80 pt contracts. She confirmed no parking fees too.

 

[Bucketfoot]

For fun, I did a quick comparison of a purchase at VDH vs VGC using 150 points which seems to be the sweet spot for VDH with the $20 incentive discount. Assuming a 2% annual growth rate of annual dues and a 1% annual growth rate for the Anaheim Transient Tax for just VDH, here is a comparison if you bought VDH vs. VGC direct over time and if you bought VGC at 3 different price points at resale. Assuming the growth rates are reasonable - it actually doesn't make VDH seem that bad over 10 years, even 20 years. I stopped at 37 years because VGC expires in 2060.



View attachment 757798

I was using those same VGC prices for my comparisons, but they are long gone and I expect to see any new listings quite likely at $330+

 

[Littlelulu01]

Any idea on closing costs yet. I've been looking at 100 and considering 50+50 vs 100 based on the closing costs.

Congratulations. Any gift for being one of the first purchasers?

 

[take36]

I'm looking for any reason to buy, but am struggling with the numbers.

I view all purchases through the lens of "break even point." The shorter, the better. I realize others approach this differently. But still, I can't make the back-of-the-napkin math work for me on this. Maybe someone can show me the error of my ways...

If we buy 100 points, I'd want to do it in two contracts (50 points each). For simplicity, lets say total closing costs are $1k, so the total initial investment is $24k (at $230 per point).

Based on the points charts, that likely gets us about 4 to 4.5 stays per year (call it 4.25). If we assign a pre-tax value of $700 per stay, that is $2,975 per year of value. However, between yearly dues (- $900), ToT (-$275), and parking (- $150), the yearly value changes as follows: $2,975 - 900 - 275 - 150 = $1650 of yearly value.

If we divide the initial investment by the yearly value ($24k/$1,650) the break even point is 14.5 years from now. That seems like an awfully long payoff period for a non-essential purchase.

Happy to listen to anyone who crunched the numbers and came up with a better way of looking at it.

I don’t like this post. Makes me not want to buy lol.

Kidding aside, thank you for the run down, will help me make my decision.

Looking at my my last few DLH stays none have been over 700 (taxes and parking included) and the summer trip I have planned is at 500 a night.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

For fun, I did a quick comparison of a purchase at VDH vs VGC using 150 points which seems to be the sweet spot for VDH with the $20 incentive discount. Assuming a 2% annual growth rate of annual dues and a 1% annual growth rate for the Anaheim Transient Tax for just VDH, here is a comparison if you bought VDH vs. VGC direct over time and if you bought VGC at 3 different price points at resale. Assuming the growth rates are reasonable - it actually doesn't make VDH seem that bad over 10 years, even 20 years. I stopped at 37 years because VGC expires in 2060.



View attachment 757798

Very interesting. VGC dues will likely level with VDH, narrowing the gap. But the TOT will keep VDH maintenance pricier.

Given time value of money, I'd say it's a wash or maybe even favors VDH, especially since the $225-250 price point for 150 pts or lower isn't coming back. We might see the upper $200s back once demand stabilizes.

 

[paslaugh]

I don’t like this post. Makes me not want to buy lol.

Kidding aside, thank you for the run down, will help me make my decision.

Looking at my my last few DLH stays none have been over 700 (taxes and parking included) and the summer trip I have planned is at 500 a night.

It looks even worse when you consider renting VDH points as the true alternative to ownership and not rack rate. I've been able to rent VGC for $22pp without issue, and I imagine it will be even easier with the larger new building.

 

[Liquidice]

Very interesting. VGC dues will likely level with VDH, narrowing the gap. But the TOT will keep VDH maintenance pricier.

Given time value of money, I'd say it's a wash or maybe even favors VDH, especially since the $225-250 price point for 150 pts or lower isn't coming back. We might see the upper $200s back once demand stabilizes.

Yeah - I figure similar to what happened at RVA, the dues did not go up at the same rate as others - so my modeling may not be quite right for annual dues. It is tough to say what will happen on the transient taxes though - it is likely the 15% transient tax won't change dramatically over time, but how the Disney and the City of Anaheim calculates the rent charged.

I'm not sure I still understand how they came up with the $2.73 per point, but if they're valuing points at $18.20 per point and next year valuing them at $18.80 per point - you can expect that it will likely go up every year. 1% may not even be a fair growth rate for the transient tax, that is really what worries me is I have no idea how that will change over time.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

I'm in!