Very Interesting DVC Rumors

[abner1776]

My guess is the price would have to be pretty low to entice people to go for the extra 15 years.

2042 is still 35 years out, so we would not even earn the benefit for another 35 years.

While it's true that the current price is in the $2-$3 range per point, having to wait 35 years for the benefit would put a huge discount on the price range.

Imagine if someone came up to you on the street and offered to sell you a one pound Hersheys bar for $2...you would be enticed to buy it...now imagine if the person said that you have to buy it now, but you won't receive the candy bar for 35 years....now how much are you willing to pay for that candy bar ?????

 

[Princess Stitch]

My guess is the price would have to be pretty low to entice people to go for the extra 15 years.

2042 is still 35 years out, so we would not even earn the benefit for another 35 years.

While it's true that the current price is in the $2-$3 range per point, having to wait 35 years for the benefit would put a huge discount on the price range.

Imagine if someone came up to you on the street and offered to sell you a one pound Hersheys bar for $2...you would be enticed to buy it...now imagine if the person said that you have to buy it now, but you won't receive the candy bar for 35 years....now how much are you willing to pay for that candy bar ?????

But what if they said that if you want the candy bar you have to buy it now because it won't be available in 35 years?

I think the whole "one time offer" is what's going to make alot of people extend. I've been going back and forth on whether to buy a new DVC contract or to get one through resale, but the fact that there may be an option for me to extend a resale contract is very appealing. In 35 years I'll be just shy of 60 anyhow.. hopefully I'll still be going to WDW!

 

[pilferk]

My guess is the price would have to be pretty low to entice people to go for the extra 15 years.

2042 is still 35 years out, so we would not even earn the benefit for another 35 years.

While it's true that the current price is in the $2-$3 range per point, having to wait 35 years for the benefit would put a huge discount on the price range.

Imagine if someone came up to you on the street and offered to sell you a one pound Hersheys bar for $2...you would be enticed to buy it...now imagine if the person said that you have to buy it now, but you won't receive the candy bar for 35 years....now how much are you willing to pay for that candy bar ?????

I think that analogy is flawed, both from a perception standpoint, and a fiscal one.

They're not saying "pay us now and in 35 years we'll give you a product" (though that may be the functional result).

They're saying "You're using our product every year...would you like to continue to use it for 15 more years than you currently will be able to". It's no different, really, than what they're selling you when you buy "new" DVC points....just at an already established/built facility.

It's more like having a yearly supply of chocolate that will run out, and the company offering to extend that supply, using today's dollars (not yesterdays or tomorrows). You realize value becuase either you or your heirs can use that chocolate OR you can sell it for more $$ because of the extended use.

I just wonder how many people honestly think Disney is going to say "Hey, give us $2500 ($10 ppt for 250 points) and we'll give you 15 extra years of vacations". Not HOPE they do, but really think they will.....

 

[OneMoreTry]

Why should "oh, you should just sell" be considered an acceptable response to criticism of DVC? I don't view this as a black and white issue where I'm expected to either tow the company line or hit the road.

It's not acceptable. It may be a little sarcastic, but it's a little bit sincere, too. I wouldn't have minded if you ignored it.

Which items from my list do you take exception to? Do you think the waitlist changes have improved the program?

I would need to poll a large random sample of members before I could comment on whether the changes have helped more than hurt. My single-member's view is: the wait list has always served me well.

Do you think the quality of training at Member Services has improved in recent years?

It's the same as it's been since I bought my points about 6 or 7 years ago. When did you first buy?

Do you think the website is acceptable in its present form, login errors and all?

It's way better than it was. Definitely within the "acceptable" category. I'm hoping for on line booking and wait listing. If I want up-to-date information I come here.

Do you think that DVC is being up-front with members in claiming for four years that TV upgrades and coffee tables are in the works?

I never assume management of any sort is up-front. They never will be. If you expect them to you'll be disappointed.

I don't watch TV when at DVC resorts and didn't know there had been a promise. What's wrong with the coffee tables?

They need new fake plants!!!!!!!!!

I have to agree with Sammie...more and more frequently I get the sense that DVC is just giving lip-service to issues raised by members rather than truly acting as an advocate in helping to resolve long-standing problems.

I actually thought they were doing pretty well. Except the fake plants. I realize they're up against 100,000 lips. They've always served mine pretty well the couple of times I've complained.

 

[abner1776]

I think that analogy is flawed, both from a perception standpoint, and a fiscal one.

They're not saying "pay us now and in 35 years we'll give you a product" (though that may be the functional result).

They're saying "You're using our product every year...would you like to continue to use it for 15 more years than you currently will be able to". It's no different, really, than what they're selling you when you buy "new" DVC points....just at an already established/built facility.

It's more like having a yearly supply of chocolate that will run out, and the company offering to extend that supply, using today's dollars (not yesterdays or tomorrows). You realize value becuase either you or your heirs can use that chocolate OR you can sell it for more $$ because of the extended use.

I just wonder how many people honestly think Disney is going to say "Hey, give us $2500 ($10 ppt for 250 points) and we'll give you 15 extra years of vacations". Not HOPE they do, but really think they will.....

"perception is reality" ...I tell this to my staff and boss all the time...you may think something is one way, but it all depends on how people perceive it in their minds and if they perceive it one way..that's reality to them.

I agree with some of your analysis but the fact of the matter is DVC will be asking us to fork over our cash for something we will not gain a benefit from for another 35 years. I already have something that is worth something to me until 2042, and no matter whether it's a candy bar or DVC points, what they want me to buy has no immediate value to me...thats how it will be perceived by DVC members and that is the reality....

 

[BWV Dreamin]

On the resale market, BWV points are equal to that of SSR now, and have 15 fewer years. So I fail to see where adding more years will inflate the resale value of the 2042 resorts. Location will continue to drive the resale values irrespective of the overall contract time. Just my opinion.

 

[nuts]

On the resale market, BWV points are equal to that of SSR now, and have 15 fewer years. So I fail to see where adding more years will inflate the resale value of the 2042 resorts. Location will continue to drive the resale values irrespective of the overall contract time. Just my opinion.

At some point the 15 years difference will have an impact. My prediction is that we will see a very serious drop in value for the 2042 resorts starting sometime between 2015 and 2020. Think about it...if you are 20 something at that point and are looking to buy...you would have to really entice me financially to buy into one that expires in less than 20 years (location or not). Its kind of like the stock market...managing market timing is difficult and will bite you.

 

[keishashadow]

On the resale market, BWV points are equal to that of SSR now, and have 15 fewer years. So I fail to see where adding more years will inflate the resale value of the 2042 resorts. Location will continue to drive the resale values irrespective of the overall contract time. Just my opinion.

Not the smaller contracts

& from what i've noticed 100 - 150 point BW are still listing higher...of course, considering a non-stripped contract.

if it increasingly becomes difficult to book "where you want to stay" @ the 7 month window; i expect that the resorts that seem to be popular will increase in value accordingly.

 

[pilferk]

"perception is reality" ...I tell this to my staff and boss all the time...you may think something is one way, but it all depends on how people perceive it in their minds and if they perceive it one way..that's reality to them.

I agree with some of your analysis but the fact of the matter is DVC will be asking us to fork over our cash for something we will not gain a benefit from for another 35 years. I already have something that is worth something to me until 2042, and no matter whether it's a candy bar or DVC points, what they want me to buy has no immediate value to me...thats how it will be perceived by DVC members and that is the reality....

Actually...I think in this case it's going to depend on how DISNEY percieves thing...not DVC members. Disney, I suppose, has to take member perception into account when pricing, but I don't think they'll do it to the extent that they'll undercut their own market, or leave money on the table for them.

 

[pilferk]

On the resale market, BWV points are equal to that of SSR now, and have 15 fewer years. So I fail to see where adding more years will inflate the resale value of the 2042 resorts. Location will continue to drive the resale values irrespective of the overall contract time. Just my opinion.

Because, at this point, there's no differentiation between different "types" of OKW contracts, or other 2042 resort contracts..

The minute there is, you'll see the difference in pricing.

Add to that the fact that at SOME point the 2042 resorts length of contract is GOING to become a factor....and you're adding value by extending.

 

[nuts]

Because, at this point, there's no differentiation between different "types" of OKW contracts, or other 2042 resort contracts..

The minute there is, you'll see the difference in pricing.

Add to that the fact that at SOME point the 2042 resorts length of contract is GOING to become a factor....and you're adding value by extending.

I would go a step further...if they offer a onetime extension...once the one time extension offer ends, those who do NOT accept it will see an immediate drop in value.

 

[jade1]

See, this is the logic that confuses me.

Pay for an OKW extension or for a new resort....and either way you're talking about using points 50 years from now. If you buy new, you're paying MORE to use points for the next 50 years. If you extend OKW, you're paying to EXTEND your contract so you can use points for 50 years.

Other than the "newness" of SSR or AKV....what's the difference? If you're going to be "dead" in 50 years for OKW use, you're going to be "dead" in 50 years for AKV use. And you still have points to use "tomorrow" in both scenarios.

With OKW, you're adding value to your contract...either for you or your heirs to use, or for you to realize upon resale.

Well I guess I'm even more confused then. Doesn't handing over more money to extend at OKW gain you absolutely nothing for the next 35 years? Putting that money into another resort would give you instantly more points to use immediatley AND the last 15 years in question as well.

 

[LoveMyDisneyCats]

I want them to listen to the thousands of members that supported them, before they became Disney's best kept secret.

Right On! I'm 100% on board with that statement! I love Disney, WDW, all things mickey...and I LOVE being able to say I "own" a piece of it. Everyone that knows me thinks I'm way to into Disney! And knowing I can go all the time is my perfect world- but I think agree some things have changed and some of the suggestions and complaints about those things are not being listened to. There are alot of us out there that will continue to support Disney and spend our hard earned $$ there, but it would be nice if our concerns and problems were addressed- or at least appeared to be addressed. Lately, it seems like the focus is on getting new members and new money instead of keeping the current members happy (which is interesting considering that they send us referral slips/postcards once a year). I realize this is just good business for them and really why should they care, they've already got us, but it would be nice considering they sold us on this DVC (or at least my family) based on the "one, big, happy mickey family" concept.

I can remember sitting in the office when my parents bought in when this first started. The CM was telling us how it's a family and she calls and checks in on her members and shares recipes...blah, blah, blah. Now, yeah, I'm not stupid, I know it was an exaggeration for the purpose of her sales pitch, BUT actually she did call and chat with the parents twice in the first two years. So that was something. Now 11 years after my parents bought and 6 years since I did, I have trouble getting rooms when I want, the buildings are becoming more run-down, and the CMs are nice-usually- instead of Disney nice all the time. It's just interesting...and now they're going back to the people that they originally sold to and want to offer an extension. I guess the recipe talk is going to be back out for that one.

 

[TTFN!]

Comming back to my thread to avoid troll classification.......

Interesting interpretations.

I was hoping for a formula like this:

OKW current resale from DVC is $95.00pp

AKV current pricing $104.00pp (or thereabouts).

Pay DVC $9.00pp plus about a $5.00 per point admin fee for next 15 years.

That would work for me, but I'd think twice before paying $35.00 a point for the extention. However, with the more detailed analytical posts that I've read, I'm afraid $35.00pp is more probable than $14.00pp.

 

[jade1]

But what if they said that if you want the candy bar you have to buy it now because it won't be available in 35 years?
QUOTE]

The OKW candy bar currently will run out in 35 years agreed, but not DVC. If you invest the money in new points-they will be good for the next 35 years (where an extension wont be) AND the last 15 years.

 

[jade1]

Comming back to my thread to avoid troll classification.......

Interesting interpretations.

I was hoping for a formula like this:

OKW current resale from DVC is $95.00pp

AKV current pricing $104.00pp (or thereabouts).

Pay DVC $9.00pp plus about a $5.00 per point admin fee for next 15 years.

That would work for me, but I'd think twice before paying $35.00 a point for the extention. However, with the more detailed analytical posts that I've read, I'm afraid $35.00pp is more probable than $14.00pp.

250 points at $35 is $8750. You can buy 250 SSR points right now on this board for $80. Thats 110 points. Rent them at $10 a point, pay $5 in dues and make $5 a point for 35 years or $19,250. Then at that point you can start in with the last 15 years at SSR instead of OKW as planned with 110points and $20K in your pocket. Somewhere along the line you can take some of the rent money and buy points at another new resort with even longer years.

 

[OneMoreTry]

A couple thoughts on this issue:

I think pretty much every corporation in the world is thinking of liquidity right now and contingency plans for how they might raise working capital if the financial markets follow a worst case scenario in the subprime mortgage "crisis." I think this is one of DVC's contingencies and really doubt it will happen unless banks really have a problem. I don't think it is the right time to offer this option.

If they DO divide OKW into two categories, how will the "2042ers" feel about paying their dues in 2041 when some of them are going toward maintaining properties they won't own in 3 years -- and others will. I won't want to fix a roof or repaint or buy a new TV or coffee table at OKW in 2041. That's for darn sure.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Because, at this point, there's no differentiation between different "types" of OKW contracts, or other 2042 resort contracts..

The minute there is, you'll see the difference in pricing.

Add to that the fact that at SOME point the 2042 resorts length of contract is GOING to become a factor....and you're adding value by extending.

What amount of value is being added by 15 years? I wonder if someone out there could amortize the value, based on current resale values, of say Boardwalk or Beach Club. What would the estimated value be at say 2032 vs. 2047? We're not talking about 40 yrs worth of time, only 15.

 

[erikthewise]

My completely unfounded guess is somewhere between $25 and $35 ppt.

Why?

Current DVC price per point: $104

104/50: $2.08

$2.08 * 15 years = $31.20.

We'll see how accurate that guess is if this comes to pass.

My estimate is that the current value of such an extension is closer to $10pp. $12 might be a reasonable price, $15 at a maximum. If DVC can get $30 for it, more power to them, but paying that much would be purely an act of sentiment.

 

[tjkraz]

I'm guessing the price will be in the neighborhood of $8 - 15 per point.

People understand the concept of Net Present Value (even if they don't know what it means.) They realize that they would be buying something that they cannot use for another 35 years--in many cases it's something that the current owner will NEVER be able to use given the individual's age.

You can't attach equal value to a 2007 point and a 2043 point.

If DVC prices it anywhere near 15/50ths of current point prices, the people who agree to extend their contract will number in the dozens.