Where is bottom?

[Cfabar1]

Where do you think DVC resort resale point costs will be? Here are some of my guesses:

VB $49 a point
HH $55 a point
AUL $80 a point
OKW $80 a point
AKV $83 a point
Riviera $118 a point
VGF $138 a point

Is this too “sky is falling”?

 

[SkampyOne]

Just looked at the ROFR thread and it looks like some have passed pretty close to those predictions I'd give just about anything to see VGF come down close to that price point!!!

 

[Cfabar1]

Just looked at the ROFR thread and it looks like some have passed pretty close to those predictions I'd give just about anything to see VGF come down close to that price point!!!

I believe there’s a VGF offer in right now lower than the number I listed… Will be curious to see if DIS takes it… Either way, makes my VGF deal I recently made look terrible!

 

[SkampyOne]

OMG and for a small contract too!!! I tried for a few contracts a few weeks ago and nobody would bite so not sure we're quite there yet. It would certainly make the decision to go resale over direct a LOT easier... On the flip side, at least you're closer to the magic than I am!

 

[tom1944]

What’s the timeframe? Within the next 6 months?

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Where do you think DVC resort resale point costs will be? Here are some of my guesses:

VB $49 a point
HH $55 a point
AUL $80 a point
OKW $80 a point
AKV $83 a point
Riviera $118 a point
VGF $138 a point

Is this too “sky is falling”?

I think that Riviera has further to fall as the resort ages, more resale inventory comes online, and fewer resale buyers are willing to buy restricted points. The others sound reasonable although I’m not sure how much more the market really has to fall. I think we could even see a slight rebound now that we’re out of dues season.

 

[Ruttangel]

Where do you think DVC resort resale point costs will be? Here are some of my guesses:

VB $49 a point
HH $55 a point
AUL $80 a point
OKW $80 a point
AKV $83 a point
Riviera $118 a point
VGF $138 a point

Is this too “sky is falling”?

Anything is possible but there comes a point where why would you sell, just keep renting until market changes

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Anything is possible but there comes a point where why would you sell, just keep renting until market changes

I would venture a guess that the vast majority of DVC owners (especially those that bought direct) are unaware of the rental market. Rental prices are also falling.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

I’m wondering if tax refund season might soften the deep dives we’re seeing. I don’t think your numbers are too far off though at this current trend. If the fed increases interest rates again, which I expect they will, people are going to be crushed under 7-year car loans and student loans resuming.

 

[ArmyChaplain Matt]

I would venture a guess that the vast majority of DVC owners (especially those that bought direct) are unaware of the rental market. Rental prices are also falling.

I dont think rental prices are falling at all. I have a FB rental group and i’m active in most of them and while there are deals to be had, Epcot resorts, monorail resorts and going strong and as long as disney keeps raising hotel cost, the others will continue to rent fine. I’ve had no trouble renting SSR, BWV, CCV and RIV points at a premium if/when I need to.

 

[Matty B13]

I’m wondering if tax refund season might soften the deep dives we’re seeing. I don’t think your numbers are too far off though at this current trend. If the fed increases interest rates again, which I expect they will, people are going to be crushed under 7-year car loans and student loans resuming.

Especially if you paid 15-20% more for that car during Covid.

 

[AdamsMum]

Where do you think DVC resort resale point costs will be? Here are some of my guesses:

VB $49 a point
HH $55 a point
AUL $80 a point
OKW $80 a point
AKV $83 a point
Riviera $118 a point
VGF $138 a point

Is this too “sky is falling”?

I think it depends on how many points in the contract. 80 pt vs 250 pt vs 500 pt. The smaller contracts will always command a premium. I agree with previous posters, why would you sell for that amount unless you were under extreme circumstances?

 

[thanxfornoticin]

Absolutely - the size of the contract really has a lot to do with the price per point. The OP appears to have actual numbers for select resale contracts, but most of these are extremes - not the norms at this time. That being said, the prices are absolutely coming down, and the number of contracts are going up - buyer's market for people wanting to buy resale DVC.

 

[tom1944]

I’m wondering if tax refund season might soften the deep dives we’re seeing. I don’t think your numbers are too far off though at this current trend. If the fed increases interest rates again, which I expect they will, people are going to be crushed under 7-year car loans and student loans resuming.

It might make it worse. I anticipate some unpleasant surprises this tax season because the child tax credit and the fact that the tax rate for most people has increased do to the phase out of lower rates that were in the 2017 tax bill.

 

[theplanets14]

There were a ton of small OKW contracts dropped at 80 pp for 2042 and 90 pp for extended this week.

So a lot of your prices are real. I think the current problem with VGF getting lower is that it was such a small association before this year so there are just less contracts out there and people with shiny new contracts are probably less likely to post on resale market. Something similar but different with poly as a lot of owners may be hanging on to see if poly2 is the same association.

Otherwise prices are decreasing but available listings are also decreasing slightly so I wouldn't be surprised if it plateaus soon.

 

[Cfabar1]

What was the size of Old VGF in available points? How much new inventory was added?

 

[RoseGold]

Man, RIV resale is a strange duck. Crazy to see it holding when everything else is cratering.

 

[Sandisw]

What was the size of Old VGF in available points? How much new inventory was added?

A little more than 2 million and they added another 2 million

 

[intamin]

Man, RIV resale is a strange duck. Crazy to see it holding when everything else is cratering.

I feel like it's holding because there isn't as much of it on the resale market compared to other resorts given how new it is and the resale restrictions otherwise it would be dropping too. RIV owners in particular are even less incentivized to sell during this buyer's market simply because they know how much of a decrease in value their contracts already have when resold compared to simply renting out the points or for personal use.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I believe there’s a VGF offer in right now lower than the number I listed… Will be curious to see if DIS takes it… Either way, makes my VGF deal I recently made look terrible!

I got one through at $144 per point shortly after they started selling VGF direct again.

I don't think they are going to ROFR VGF almost regardless of the price currently.