Meanwhile, in late 2019 while waiting for his wait list to come through, he first receives the new dues estimate for 2020 which has his dues going up 8%
To be fair this is something that is happening at all of the resorts for a noble reason of paying CM a living wage. So honestly I'm okay with the increase; however, I think sale people should be honest in telling those that buy that 2020 and 2021 dues are likely to increase higher than average across all resorts (but likely lower than the 2019 average increase, since most of the wage increase was stacked that year).
Then at the end of 2019, he receives a notice that the new
point charts for 2021 are available. He goes to review the CCV
point chart and sees that studios have gone up close to 20% per night for the fall season.
Hopefully all of us that struck a cord with Disney about the 2020 increase and they decide seasonal adjustments should happen only. Though as you said the fall season can increase and rightfully should probably increase by quite a bit, IMO, being the most popular time.
At the behest of the salesman, who assures him he can easily get a studio at his home resort if he reserves with the 11 month window and can even get other resorts at 7 months out, he buys 75 points to assure getting the perks, and unbeknownst to him the points he gets are more cabin points being sold to purchasers who can only afford studios.
At least CCV is average is better than PVB since its average contract was for I think 20-25 more points at 150, which is even more of a difference when you consider the studios are significantly cheaper than PVB. So people are buying for larger units (likely the 2 beds not the cabins) not just studios, so there is some mix of buyers. It's even better than VGF where people bought on average less points too for a much smaller number of studios and 1 bedrooms at a much higher point cost. Really the only MK resort that seems to have great balance is BLT (price, contract size, unit distribution).
As for the 182-188 price point of CCV (ignoring the cabins issue, which this paragraph is only doing to comment on the price, assuming you can get the unit you want, which is a bit of a simplification) isn't significantly higher in cost than the other MK resorts (aside from BRV), if you were purchasing a fair amount of points (150+) back before beginning of 2019. By the time you adjusted for incentives you were sitting around 160-165 a point. So yes slightly higher than resale at BLT (140 on average) but if you purchased correctly (use year considerations, etc) you got a years of points almost free that you could rent eventually saving you another 10-15 a point (and many resales are even stripped 2 years, not just 1 year, of points so could be another 10-15 a point savings depending what is on the market). So while DVC direct is getting expensive, though if the resort is a must have for an individual (and they are aware of the limitations) direct prices may make sense (if and only if) you properly consider all costs and compare to other resale resorts. Now buying direct for sold out resorts is almost never financially prudent unless you are looking for a small add-on 25-50 points, where it is chasing a unicorn. Buying the other MK resorts (aside from BRV) you have much higher point costs that CCV so while Disney may raise the points (or try to again) switching points from the Cabin (November/December will let us know their intentions) they have a significant cushion that can be absorbed before reaching the points per night of PVB/VGF/BLT(lake and TP), which if 2020's original charts are any indication DVC intends to move everything in lock-step anyways (if what they did was legally allowed I fully expect them to move everything in lock-step again just to a smaller degree). And Disney will move points from the Bungalows to the Studios at PVB, which if they do that I would fully expect them to increase the lock-off premium at VGF identical movements to keep those two resorts priced even at the studio level.
It will be interesting to see if with incentives Riviera is priced similar to BCV (likely no in this case because it has the higher point chart), which is why Disney is probably exercising ROFR on those points to drive up the resale prices, IMO. CCV had the advantage they couldn't really set it higher than BRV, at onset, because no one would have bought it at a premium over BRV. I'm most curious what Reflections will be like, the leaked architectural drawing, if real, has a fairly large resort (at the detriment to FW) with what looks like a pool similar in vein to SAB, lazy river right looking over the lake. The original DVC resort over there did call for a lazy river so it isn't wild and since its a cash resort Disney might be more willing to spend. But new resale restrictions really put a damper on Riviera forward.