If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[godisney14]

People die in car crashes every day. Yet we haven’t outlawed cars yet. Risk benefit analysis is done on many issues every day.

These kinds of comparisons are really silly. I don’t think you understand the situation.

What is the R0 and td of car crashes, homeless people, cancer, etc, compared to this virus?

If unsure, maybe it’s good to just listen to the scientists and healthcare professionals.

 

[erc]

These kinds of comparisons are really silly. I don’t think you understand the situation.

What is the R0 and td of car crashes, homeless people, cancer, etc, compared to this virus?

If unsure, maybe it’s good to just listen to the scientists and healthcare professionals.

I get what you are saying but I think this whole comparison thing started when people were accusing others of putting money before deaths. Which with automobiles is exactly what we are doing. If you were to try to introduce a new product that would kill 40,000 people every year, do you think you would get approvals today? But we allow them to be purchased. We have decided that they are worth the deaths.

 

[AggieDizzer]

If unsure, maybe it’s good to just listen to the scientists and healthcare professionals.

You mean like this one?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020...e-shutdown-approach-may-be-imperfect/#slide-1
Or this one?

https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2...laureate-who-predicted-chinas-trajectory.html
"Scientists" and "Healthcare Professionals" are just as divided on what to do as the people in this (or any other) forum. I would guess you mean the scientists and healthcare workers that share your point of view.

 

[mjkacmom]

Ok, but you realize this whole exchange started because of what our Governor, the head of our state has said right. He is the one saying it isn't working.
I'm trying to discuss why that may be the case. You seem to have an issue with that so maybe it's better that you do stop then.

I think he’s saying that to encourage people to do a better job self isolating, he’s angry that people are still congregating. He said that if you can play basketball with 6 feet in between players you don’t play basketball very well. The reason it’s not working yet is because people are idiots and not following instructions.

 

[mjkacmom]

You mean like this one?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020...e-shutdown-approach-may-be-imperfect/#slide-1
Or this one?

https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2...laureate-who-predicted-chinas-trajectory.html
"Scientists" and "Healthcare Professionals" are just as divided on what to do as the people in this (or any other) forum. I would guess you mean the scientists and healthcare workers that share your point of view.

It appears the professionals side much more heavily one one side than on the other.

 

[godisney14]

I get what you are saying but I think this whole comparison thing started when people were accusing others of putting money before deaths. Which with automobiles is exactly what we are doing. If you were to try to introduce a new product that would kill 40,000 people every year, do you think you would get approvals today? But we allow them to be purchased. We have decided that they are worth the deaths.

I see that point of view.

Just one more fact. In response to comment about car crashes, we have A LOOONG (really long) ways to go before vehicle fatalities and COVID-19 deaths are on par. CFR of COVID-19 is much greater than 100x of vehicle crash related deaths.

 

[Colleen27]

It seems the government and most states are on the right track to help provide for everyone in order to prevent financial ruin. The latest federal bill provides 100% unemployment insurance, meaning 100% of the salary you were making if you lose your job, for 4 months and can continue to receive your current health benefits. They are going to be providing stimulus checks, likely as long as necessary. Most mortgages are going to allow freezing of payments.

It seems the protect the economy at all costs group is ignoring these measures.

Or we're skeptical about them until something actually passes and can be read by the public. Because there always seems to be a catch, like those direct payments that had so many qualifiers that they were going to reduce benefits to or entirely exclude millions of people.

FYI, unless they majorly restructure the unemployment program it won't help anyone whose income is relatively new (there's a four-quarter average income test), anyone who works part time or in the gig economy, people whose hours have been cut but haven't been fully laid off, anyone who quit before their workplace shut down, etc. And it won't help those who are still working but struggling under the weight of new childcare bills because the schools are closed.

I'd stay in a whole lot more if I could get more than 25% of my groceries at a time.

No kidding! The stores around me have imposed tight item limits in response to the panic buying, so I'm going to need 2 or 3 trips to get two weeks' worth of groceries for my household of five. Because one package of ground beef, one package of chicken, five of canned corn, etc. aren't going to cut it. At the very time we're being told to limit our trips to the store, we're also being told that we can't buy even as much as we would in a normal week.

I just saw a picture from a family member in San Antonio where people are lined up to be able to enter a supermarket. Is that what people are experiencing? Our supermarkets (north of Boston) don't have restrictions beyond the special hours for seniors. When I have gone they have had just about everything in stock except toilet paper. Is it different in different areas of the country?

Yeah, that's how it is here too. Wait out in the cold with a few dozen of your neighbors to be allowed into the stores in small groups to shop, no more than a certain number of people allowed in at a time. Shelves are better stocked and getting more like normal every day, but as I mentioned above, there are per-item limits that keep people from hoarding but also make it hard for people shopping for a family to limit their trips. I normally only shop every two weeks but under the current restrictions will probably switch to going weekly.

 

[billlaurie]

And you know what else? Emergency rooms are being overrun.

Maybe everyone should quit running straight to the hospital with fevers, cough and just follow the guidelines given to call or videochat, which most likely they will tell you not to come in unless breathing impaired or you get worse.

Most people who have this can be treated at home!!! Just quarantine yourself and family for 14 days, whether you know you have covid or not!!!

Exactly my thoughts! Stay home for minor things. I wouldn't go to the hospital unless I literally thought I was dying! If you didn't have the virus when you got there, your odds are pretty good that you'll have it when you leave.

 

[godisney14]

You mean like this one?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020...e-shutdown-approach-may-be-imperfect/#slide-1
Or this one?

https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2...laureate-who-predicted-chinas-trajectory.html
"Scientists" and "Healthcare Professionals" are just as divided on what to do as the people in this (or any other) forum. I would guess you mean the scientists and healthcare workers that share your point of view.

Great. Sure. You also selectively found a source to support your opinion. It’s called selection bias.
Even scientific research is not 100% immune to selection bias.

There is never going to be 100% agreement on any topic—political, scientific, medical, religious, etc. That’s life.

But, there will always be a majority opinion. May be anecdotal to you, but I haven’t heard from any family or friend or peer in the hospital setting who is saying, “Let’s let this thing loose since the economy is of higher importance.”

 

[Hikergirl]

I think he’s saying that to encourage people to do a better job self isolating, he’s angry that people are still congregating. He said that if you can play basketball with 6 feet in between players you don’t play basketball very well. The reason it’s not working yet is because people are idiots and not following instructions.

Yes I realize that.
People are arguing that we can't lift some restrictions but guess what- it is spreading because people aren't following them anyway. They haven't been since the start of this.
Relaxing restrictions may not make any difference in terms of it spreading. For those making those decisions, that is something that should be considered.

ETA- I'm not in favor for lifting the restrictions and going back to normal. I'm in favor of looking at all the data and info so those who do makes those decisions make the right one.

 

[AggieDizzer]

...people are idiots and not following instructions.

Comments like this don't help create constructive discourse. These "idiots" are people who are trying to live their lives and cope with a stressful situation as best they can. For many, it may be that these social circles are all they have. For others, they may be in denial. But whatever the case they are someone's child, brother, sister...and perhaps their home situation is not as kind and loving as yours. I would guess most people don't take too well to being locked in an apartment all day when they've lived their whole lives on the streets.

So be careful before you pass judgement on "those idiots". There's more to their stories than you know.

 

[e_yerger]

Jesus this thread is still going on?!

STAY HOME. STAY INSIDE. FLATTEN THE CURVE. Covid-19 is NOT going away anytime soon if we don't do that. If this wasn't still the case, then why are Governors announcing left & right shelter in place ordinances? Covid-19 is not going to go away in one week. Or even one month.

Stop being selfish for a split second and stay home. Legit scientists and doctors are telling us to stay home, sit on the couch, eat bon bons and watch Netflix for the next 2+ weeks. Do it, you wont get this chance again.

sidebar: my heart ACHES for the people who have lost their jobs due to this virus. A family friend is a restaurant owner and is worried she will have to close her successful business. But, unless we act NOW this will drag on for much much much longer than needed.

And that's it. That's the story. And if you believe otherwise, you're really just trying to find a story that better supports your idea of happiness. Reality right now is that the world is scary, in shambles, and very far from normal. The second we accept that and move on, we'll be able to be okay with this new normal.

Accept it. Stay home. Stay Inside.

 

[ShirikiUtundu]

I see that point of view.

Just one more fact. In response to comment about car crashes, we have A LOOONG (really long) ways to go before vehicle fatalities and COVID-19 deaths are on par. CFR of COVID-19 is much greater than 100x of vehicle crash related deaths.

Since this keeps getting lost among locked threads:
CFR is not a static number, especially while in the midst of an outbreak. It cannot be fully assessed until aggregate data is available. There are way too many factors which affect the CFR including location and demographics of the infected population. Most people are throwing around data and statistics like they have any idea what it means. The fact is all the data we have right now is snapshot. It only represents what is happening at this point in time. It is a fallacy to state as fact that this virus is XX times more deadly than this other virus without the full extent of data, which is still being collected.

 

[AggieDizzer]

Great. Sure. You also selectively found a source to support your opinion. It’s called selection bias.
Even scientific research is not 100% immune to selection bias.

There is never going to be 100% agreement on any topic—political, scientific, medical, religious, etc. That’s life.

But, there will always be a majority opinion. May be anecdotal to you, but I haven’t heard from any family or friend or peer in the hospital setting who is saying, “Let’s let this thing loose since the economy is of higher importance.”

Uh, ok, I was just providing another point of view that obviously does not gel with your worldview. And perhaps we run in different circles but I have heard several who have indicated just that. (I try to listen to both sides of the discourse, so I am familiar with arguments on both sides. I am trying to keep an open mind...unlike...well, never mind.)

Who was that poster who said something about talking to walls?

 

[godisney14]

Yes I realize that.
People are arguing that we can't lift some restrictions but guess what- it is spreading because people aren't following them anyway. They haven't been since the start of this.
Relaxing restrictions may not make any difference in terms of it spreading. For those making those decisions, that is something that should be considered.

Some is better than none.

 

[mjkacmom]

Yes I realize that.
People are arguing that we can't lift some restrictions but guess what- it is spreading because people aren't following them anyway. They haven't been since the start of this.
Relaxing restrictions may not make any difference in terms of it spreading. For those making those decisions, that is something that should be considered.

ETA- I'm not in favor for lifting the restrictions and going back to normal. I'm in favor of looking at all the data and info so those who do makes those decisions make the right one.

But people are following the restrictions more now than a week ago. The only data we have now are other countries.

 

[Notrealname]

The thought that it will be beautiful for churches to be “packed on Easter Sunday“ is just simply delusional.
Getting people back to work in essential industries and services is one thing. But crowds for crowds sake? No!

 

[Hikergirl]

Some is better than none.

I don't disagree. There are plenty of things "open" now, adding more may not make a difference.
Right now in NY 100% of non-essential workers are supposed to be working from home.
However there are tons of essential workers already out there. Will letting others go to their workplace make a huge difference in terms of the spread?

 

[Notrealname]

Do a search on “How religion is playing a role in the spread of coronavirus in Korea”

 

[Hikergirl]

But people are following the restrictions more now than a week ago. The only data we have now are other countries.

But people are still out there, and it is still spreading. We know it isn't going to stop so the question is how many people can be "out there" until it effects the spread.