Another Direct vs Resale Thread...

[drusba]

While I agree with the issues you present; however, some other things to consider is that last year January-March 2018 bookings only less than 1/4 of the eligible studios (dedicated and lockoff) were declared only with close to 40% of the points declared. By July 2018 they were to almost half of the studios with around half the points declared. Then in September they were still around half the studios with 3/4 of the points. It wasn’t until the decelerations in December 2018 that almost all the remaining studios were declared. DVC holding off declaring the studios amplified the availability issues last year.

Also as far as buffer CCV has the lockoff premium which does eat some of those cabin points but that isnt a significant amount. PVB doesn’t have that.

Also my understanding from those that track the sales (DVCNews) that the average contract at Copper Creek is higher points (~150) vs Polynesian (~130). This is even more of a spread when you consider the point costs are much less than Polynesian so some people seem to be buying Copper Creek for larger types (likely 1/2 beds). By not figuring out how to fit 5 in a studio or 1 bedroom was good for Copper Creek because it forced bigger contracts for those buying with 5+ in a family.

So the true impact of the issues at copper creek will be known after about a year of sales stopping, IMO. But I do expect studios to be the quickest to go (just as all); though, in slow DVC times we could see that the rooms may be walked less. And perhaps not booked at 8 AM but I still would always suggest to book right at 8.

Though most of what you state are considerations, the first one likely is not. It matters not how many studios have been declared into CCV because that has no effect on the reservation of studios. The sharing agreement between DVC and DVD allows for DVC members to occupy any studio that exists, while DVD can do the same via rentals. In other words, the limitations are on total reservation time DVC members can reserve rather than particular rooms, e.g., with enough rooms declared to equal 40% of the total points, members get to reserve, per any given day, any rooms they want up to the maximum number of rooms it would take to use 40% of the points, regardless of which units or rooms those points are associated with.

Moreover, it is during the first year of reservations that rooms are typically easier to get than later years, mainly because far more points are declared into the resort during such period than points actually sold.

What CCV has been demonstrating thus far in its early years is something worse than what was demonstrated by VGF in its early years. VGF has a similar problem in not having enough studios, while it was sold for a minimun of 100 points or less at a high purchase price. The result there was that studios were "oversold" because a significant portion of the 2BRs and Grand Villas were sold to those who got only enough points to get studios. However, during the first year to 1 1/2 years of VGF reservations, studios were generally easy to get, even usually at 7 months out except for key times like Thanksgivng and early December, mainly because the total declared rooms and points significantly outnumbered the total sold points during that time. It then slowly developed issues at 7 months out for much of the year as more and more points were sold and by the time it had reached close to sell-out, it also had issues of being able to get a studio at 11 months out, at 8 a.m. eastern, for certain times during the high demand season. In essence, CCV has actually developed more problems reserving studios in its first 1 1/2 years of reservations than VGF did. Possibly it will work out better due to some other reasons stated above, but right now I would not advise anyone to buy CCV if intent is to always get studios.

 

[drusba]

What about the "free" 2018 points. You have a lot of people who need to use it or lose it. We are currently being offered 2018 points that we can bank (April 31, 2019), use (by Sept 1, 2019) or rent. Seems like yet another pretty significant factor. Now combine everything together-- the honeymoon period for new owners, Star Wars Galaxy's Edge, and "free" 2018 points that must be used or lost as the weeks roll on and then compound these issues with the low amount of studios and you have the perfect storm for CCV studio occupancy in late 2019- 2020.

Agree those can possibly be factors but those cannot really explain why CCV studios were disappearing before 7 month out for much of the lower demand season from mid-Jan to late Sep last year, while in a comparable infancy period, VGF studios were still mostly staying open for 7 month reservations during that lower demand season.

 

[crvetter]

Though most of what you state are considerations, the first one likely is not. It matters not how many studios have been declared into CCV because that has no effect on the reservation of studios. The sharing agreement between DVC and DVD allows for DVC members to occupy any studio that exists, while DVD can do the same via rentals. In other words, the limitations are on total reservation time DVC members can reserve rather than particular rooms, e.g., with enough rooms declared to equal 40% of the total points, members to get to reserve, per any given day, any rooms they want up to the maximum number of rooms it would take to use 40% of the points, regardless of which units or rooms those points are associated with.

Moreover, it is during the first year of reservations that rooms are typically easier to get than later years, mainly because far more points are declared into the resort during such period than points actually sold.

What CCV has been demonstrating thus far in its early years is something worse than what was demonstrated by VGF in its early years. VGF has a similar problem in not having enough studios, while it was sold for a minimun of 100 points or less at a high purchase price. The result there was that studios were "oversold" because a significant portion of the 2BRs and Grand Villas were sold to those who got only enough points to get studios. However, during the first year to 1 1/2 years of VGF reservations, studios were generally easy to get, even usually at 7 months out except for key times like Thanksgivng and early December, mainly because the total declared rooms and points significantly outnumbered the total sold points during that time. It then slowly developed issues at 7 months out for much of the year as more and more points were sold and by the time it had reached close to sell-out, it also had issues of being able to get a studio at 11 months out, at 8 a.m. eastern, for certain times during the high demand season. In essence, CCV has actually developed more problems reserving studios in its first 1 1/2 years of reservations than VGF did. Possibly it will work our better due to some other reasons stated above, but right now I would not advise anyone to buy CCV if intent is to always get studios.

I apologize I was under the impression (after asking DVC management and Quality Assurance this) they said that paragraph only stated that declared and undeclared studios could be assigned to occupy (checkin) indiscriminately between renter and owners, though I was misled it seems. If it is what you stated, I know for sure Disney held some back because when they did the last studio heavy decelarations studios opened up from September to December bookings and remained open for 2 days or so for large chunks. Thanksgiving week remained for 3 days.

 

[Erik DeShane]

Agree those can possibly be factors but those cannot really explain why CCV studios were disappearing before 7 month out for much of the lower demand season from mid-Jan to late Sep last year, while in a comparable infancy period, VGF studios were still mostly staying open for 7 month reservations during that lower demand season.

Well, I think this horse has just about been beat to death. I'm was optimistic about my decision around 1:00 this afternoon and now I'm close to calling it off as I prepare to go to bed.
It definitely concerns me that many DVC veterans are apparently very down on the points allocation and studio availability for small contract owners at CCV. I thought that my off-season schedule & ability to plan 11+ months in advance would just about guarantee me a studio for 6+ nights in January after the marathon and MLK day. While I may be correct, it sounds as though I am possibly walking into a very expensive and frustrating situation if I can not get the booking at the 11 month window.

The options:
1) Buy the 100 points and be prepared to sell them if I get locked out of an 11 month booking.
2) Purchase the 118 points to get a guaranteed week #3/52 -- If it is still available...
3) Buy the least expensive 75-100 point BLT/ POLY contract on the resale market and forget about trying to stay at WL annually.

Thanks for the help everyone.

 

[drusba]

I apologize I was under the impression (after asking DVC management and Quality Assurance this) they said that paragraph only stated that declared and undeclared studios could be assigned to occupy (checkin) indiscriminately between renter and owners, though I was misled it seems. If it is what you stated, I know for sure Disney held some back because when they did the last studio heavy declarations studios opened up from September to December bookings and remained open for 2 days or so for large chunks. Thanksgiving week remained for 3 days.

I am not sure what your first sentence is actually saying but I assume you were told something different from what i was told about 12 years ago. I was one of the early purchasers of AKV and about a month or two after reservations opened I inquired via letter, asking whether I could reserve rooms not yet declared into DVC. I asked the question because I was considering reserving a value room in the coming months and, according to filings with the Comptroller, none of those had been declared into the system yet. I got a call in which I was informed that during the sale period, DVC and DVD had an agreement that allowed both to make reservations for any available rooms, including those in units not yet declared into DVC, but members could reserve only the percentage share of the resort reservation time represented by the total units declared into the DVC system.

 

[crvetter]

I am not sure what your first sentence is actually saying but I assume you were told something different from what i was told about 12 years ago. I was one of the early purchasers of AKV and about a month or two after reservations opened I inquired via letter, asking whether I could reserve rooms not yet declared into DVC. I asked the question because I was considering reserving a value room in the coming months and, according to filings with the Comptroller, none of those had been declared into the system yet. I got a call in which I was informed that during the sale period, DVC and DVD had an agreement that allowed both to make reservations for any available rooms, including those in units not yet declared into DVC, but members could reserve only the percentage share of the resort reservation time represented by the total units declared into the DVC system.

Yeah I was told the opposite of you. I was told that the number of studios declared would only be accessible to owners. They told me the section was to mean we would be assigned (for the resort stay) rooms maybe not declared into the association while cash rooms might use the declared rooms. I was told it was a room assignment concern only. But they might have said they only held some back and I missed that.

Though you have a factual experience if you were indeed able to reserve a value before declared. So if DVC does the same operation with the resorts then I can see what you are saying.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I would agree I think it’s mostly because of studio demand but also new owners excited to use their points. Also because people were buying with 2018 points that Likely were banked people are looking to rent or use them themselves.

The odd factor is that in the past it was often easiest for non owners to book at the new resort while it was still in sales. Declared inventory was of course greater than the points sold at that point. Twice I got VGF studio for the first week of December and it is not overwhelmed with studios and also was allowed the small point buy in.

(Which as I continued reading I see that Drusba mentioned all these points. Other than - I was able to get the early December bookings. The first year it was open. The second time it might have been because an owner had cancelled.)

 

[drusba]

Yeah I was told the opposite of you. I was told that the number of studios declared would only be accessible to owners. They told me the section was to mean we would be assigned (for the resort stay) rooms maybe not declared into the association while cash rooms might use the declared rooms. I was told it was a room assignment concern only. But they might have said they only held some back and I missed that.

Though you have a factual experience if you were indeed able to reserve a value before declared. So if DVC does the same operation with the resorts then I can see what you are saying.

It is also possible that we were both informed correctly but that DVC and DVD have changed the practice to what you were told -- and considering how much DVC/DVD have, in the last ten years, going out of their way to change so many things to make them more unfavorable to members, that is a real possibility.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Well, I think this horse has just about been beat to death. I'm was optimistic about my decision around 1:00 this afternoon and now I'm close to calling it off as I prepare to go to bed.
It definitely concerns me that many DVC veterans are apparently very down on the points allocation and studio availability for small contract owners at CCV. I thought that my off-season schedule & ability to plan 11+ months in advance would just about guarantee me a studio for 6+ nights in January after the marathon and MLK day. While I may be correct, it sounds as though I am possibly walking into a very expensive and frustrating situation if I can not get the booking at the 11 month window.

The options:
1) Buy the 100 points and be prepared to sell them if I get locked out of an 11 month booking.
2) Purchase the 118 points to get a guaranteed week #3/52 -- If it is still available...
3) Buy the least expensive 75-100 point BLT/ POLY contract on the resale market and forget about trying to stay at WL annually.

Thanks for the help everyone.

I actually am rather surprised about the January bookings for CCV when not over the race weekend or MLK weekend. You were already thinking of BLT or PVB for a second home resort so a resale purchase at one of them and reevaluate CCV when it has another year or two under it's belt could be an option. Or the fixed week since you have plans for that particular week going forward would likely be the best in the long run as you'll never have a worry about reserving it. It will cost a premium though since the fixed weeks are not discounted but if it's where you want to stay then that added cost spread out over the years really is rather minimal. And should your time to visit change it can be cancelled and the points used for some other time or to bank the points to have a longer stay or a larger villa every couple of years.

It's too bad that BRV was not appealing as it gives you the location and does not have the same booking issues at 11 months (except maybe early December which is just a problematic time at most resorts). Prior to buying DVC we enjoyed staying at WL. BRV ended up being our first purchase. Last April I had a night at CCV and was really looking forward to being back in the main building, or so I thought. While I enjoyed it I actually found I was missing not being over in the BRV corner of the world.

Sometimes the perceptions of a resort are not the same as once you stay there. BWV vs BCV? Thought we'd love BCV as DH loves to swim. Then stayed at BWV. And then at BWV again. And again. Nothing wrong with BCV and we still stay there now and then but BWV appealed more once we stayed there. I didn't dislike it when seeing it but I didn't expect to like it that much more.

 

[Wakey]

As I said above the studios but also other rooms will be very difficult to get at CCV due to the issues Drusba explains so clearly. There is no other property at WDW displaying the availibility issues of CCV, none. 7 months all year forget studios, and touch and go on 1 beds. September to early Jan forget studios if not booked at 11 months. September to December pre Xmas touch and go on 1 beds at 7 months. Xmas and other peak periods you’ll need to walk studios to be sure of booking and possibly walk 1 beds which is unprecedented. I did a calculation a few weeks back on another post and the points in cabins over an Xmas period of 10 days easily exceeded the points availible in studios.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I know we all seem down on CCV, but the patterns in the first two years have been quite distinctively different even from VGF, which functionally (not legally) oversold studios. Inception to sell out should be the easiest time to get bookings at a resort, and save for cabins, that hasn't been true at CCV.

Other forums, with newer members, have seen a steady stream of complaints about CCV availability from new buyers. Some of them have concluded it's "because of resale buyers!" but that is so completely not it, as the resale market for CCV is still a very small fraction of direct sales, and availability is long gone in home resort. Some have said "it's renters!" and that's also not it, because even if someone rented their CCV points, someone would have booked the unit with points regardless, and banning rental is both legally improbable and unlikely to have the impact some wish it might.

Could it get better? Eh. Is it more likely, based on the original 2020 point charts, Disney try to shift cabin points to studios? Yeah, unfortunately.

 

[Ben E N]

I know we all seem down on CCV, but the patterns in the first two years have been quite distinctively different even from VGF, which functionally (not legally) oversold studios. Inception to sell out should be the easiest time to get bookings at a resort, and save for cabins, that hasn't been true at CCV.

Other forums, with newer members, have seen a steady stream of complaints about CCV availability from new buyers. Some of them have concluded it's "because of resale buyers!" but that is so completely not it, as the resale market for CCV is still a very small fraction of direct sales, and availability is long gone in home resort. Some have said "it's renters!" and that's also not it, because even if someone rented their CCV points, someone would have booked the unit with points regardless, and banning rental is both legally improbable and unlikely to have the impact some wish it might.

Could it get better? Eh. Is it more likely, based on the original 2020 point charts, Disney try to shift cabin points to studios? Yeah, unfortunately.

I wonder if it is the limit of only 4 in the one bedrooms, while others allow up to 5. This would drive most parties to just want a studio, as the advantages of the 1 BR are minimal compared to other resorts. That, combined with the many small contract buyers, and a larger number of them competing for those rooms due to many of those contracts being from cabin points.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I wonder if it is the limit of only 4 in the one bedrooms, while others allow up to 5. This would drive most parties to just want a studio, as the advantages of the 1 BR are minimal compared to other resorts. That, combined with the many small contract buyers, and a larger number of them competing for those rooms due to many of those contracts being from cabin points.

That's really the strongest theory, and if it is in fact the basis, this doesn't get better save by the small contracts selling and people amassing multiple small contracts so they have 200-300 points.

 

[jodifla]

Well, I think this horse has just about been beat to death. I'm was optimistic about my decision around 1:00 this afternoon and now I'm close to calling it off as I prepare to go to bed.
It definitely concerns me that many DVC veterans are apparently very down on the points allocation and studio availability for small contract owners at CCV. I thought that my off-season schedule & ability to plan 11+ months in advance would just about guarantee me a studio for 6+ nights in January after the marathon and MLK day. While I may be correct, it sounds as though I am possibly walking into a very expensive and frustrating situation if I can not get the booking at the 11 month window.

The options:
1) Buy the 100 points and be prepared to sell them if I get locked out of an 11 month booking.
2) Purchase the 118 points to get a guaranteed week #3/52 -- If it is still available...
3) Buy the least expensive 75-100 point BLT/ POLY contract on the resale market and forget about trying to stay at WL annually.

Thanks for the help everyone.

It seems like No. 2 would be a really good choice for you! Wouldn't you be all set then?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Guaranteed week 3/52 is for sure available. The number of overall GW's sold is actually pretty low and overbalances to Jersey Week and early December.

 

[luvmychaos]

Guaranteed week 3/52 is for sure available. The number of overall GW's sold is actually pretty low and overbalances to Jersey Week and early December.

Completely (from me)but I have to say that I was exactly today years old when I realized Jersey Week meant the football/cheerleader crowds, not an influx of crowds from New Jersey Good lord! *facepalm*

And back to the OP, while everyone has answered everything quite clearly, the only insight I have to offer as a newish owner is definitely buy more than you’d think you’d need with your initial purchase - whether that’s direct or resale. We were all set to pull the trigger on 100 at PVB and changed to 125 at the last minute, AND THEN 50 at CCV for a total of 175 and am so thankful we did. A usual week there in a SV DS is 118(for when we go). Having the cushion makes me breathe a hair easier, in case things need to get switched. We also just added another 50 at CCV because we’re crazy. WHEN we want to add on again, because I know it’s coming, I’ll quite happily purchase smaller resale contracts to round it out more. We also own at CCV and was able to get a studio at CCV, the 2nd/3rd week of Dec, right at 11 months on the nose, fairly easily I also changed to the week after New Years fairly easily as well. We ultimately switched completely to Nov and a split stay. I know booking is extremely variable for owners but I wouldn’t lose hope yet.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I realized Jersey Week meant the football/cheerleader crowds, not an influx of crowds from New Jersey

Actually, those are different weeks. Jersey Week is basically first week of November. Big teacher conference in Jersey, so they all come to Disney.

Pop Warner is the football/cheer crowds, and that is early December.

 

[luvmychaos]

Actually, those are different weeks. Jersey Week is basically first week of November. Big teacher conference in Jersey, so they all come to Disney.

Pop Warner is the football/cheer crowds, and that is early December.

YAY!! So I wasn’t a total idiot Thanks for the clarification

 

[_auroraborealis_]

YAY!! So I wasn’t a total idiot Thanks for the clarification

Nope. My point to OP was that GWs overbalance to early November, and December, and less so "after marathon."

 

[luvmychaos]

Nope. My point to OP was that GWs overbalance to early November, and December, and less so "after marathon."

How to you what GW’s are available to purchase? Does the guide let you know? I had heard of them for the marathon’s but that’s it.