April Incentives - What Are Your Predictions?

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Yes. It shot into the low $300s as a floor price and is back to mid-$200 and contracts are just sitting at that price. I think it wants to be around $225 right now and the sellers need to catch up.

So that’s a fall of like $100 from its peak.

Ah, ok. I feel like it won't come down that low but maybe $240--then it's about the price of VDH before incentives. I think it wasn't long ago that it was going for about that

 

[lyric_rains]

Did the price of VGC ever come back down after it shot up when VDH pricing was announced? Was just looking at it but don't remember what pre-VDH pricing was like

I purchased a 50pt VGC in January of 2023 for $269, about 2 months before the prices at VDH were released. I haven’t seen a small contract go below $280 on the resale market since then. But yes, they have dropped from the $320 pricing, following the release of VDH when resale supply of VGC went to less 5 contracts.

 

[Cabius]

A number of folks have speculated about other sold-out resorts being on sale in the future after OKW, but isn't the deal with OKW that Disney tends to buy those up via ROFR in order to extend them to 2057? I imagine their OKW inventory is higher than other sold-out resorts as a result; or am I hallucinating that?

 

[intamin]

Yes. It shot into the low $300s as a floor price and is back to mid-$200 and contracts are just sitting at that price. I think it wants to be around $225 right now and the sellers need to catch up.

So that’s a fall of like $100 from its peak.

It was really funny watching people panic buy VGC after VDH prices dropped. I remember some people buying VGC at like 315-320. Insane. Lol

 

[CastAStone]

A number of folks have speculated about other sold-out resorts being on sale in the future after OKW, but isn't the deal with OKW that Disney tends to buy those up via ROFR in order to extend them to 2057? I imagine their OKW inventory is higher than other sold-out resorts as a result; or am I hallucinating that?

You are not hallucinating that. It’s spot on actually. But it is also true that Disney bought gobs of SSR contracts back a couple years ago and hasn’t really sold many of them.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

What's the estimated percentage of owners that never signed the quit-claim and still have their original points?

Many of OKW's points will be extended into 2057 after this sale and there are many years left for those original owners to sell and have the quit-claims nullified. By the time 2042 comes around I feel like there will be such a small percentage of owners that still have OKW under those terms that Disney will just look the other way and say just pay us the dues and keep your contract till 2057.

 

[CanadianDVC2024]

I don't know what to make of all these good deals! I think DisneyLand Forward is going to happen, so VDH will be in great positioning to be rental points and great SAP as direct points. But, we're on the East Coast, and how often would we need/want VDH points? But I look at VGC inflation, and while I don't think VDH has the same cache, it's still a great resort, from the looks of it anyway.

OKW, we did a resort-only stay there and LOVED it. I think it's only a matter of time before the Skyliner is extended SOMEWHERE, and why not to OKW/SS and Disney Springs line? They'd goose the profit margins on all the resorts over there that are car/bus dependent. Those grand villas are amazing. Heck, the one-bedroom was wonderful -- for cheap! There's the new drone show at Springs. Do they extend the Skyliner to help the evening crowds at MK, running through OKW/SS/Port Orleans/Riverside?

Riviera we already own enough of, but if we needed more points, I'd be game.

What does this mean for Poly and Poly resale? I was eyeing resale, but if they close the gap between the two, maybe wait for all direct points and instant gratification and two more blue cards to pass down to the kids so they'd each have an Epcot/MK direct card/points to inherit? There's a ton of rerouting on Floridian Way for traffic. How are they going to handle the monorail/Poly influx of people at the Poly tower and looky-loos? How popular is Poly going to be when on sale if we hit recession? I know the economy is supposedly booming right now, but I think we're overdue for a recession. Could there be deals if we wait?

Who's next for a fire sale? I'm thinking Animal Kingdom has a bazillion points, and if they're expanding/updating Animal Kingdom park with Joe Rhode supervising, is that the sleeper hit of the future? How many points did they buy back last year at CC? Enough to do a fire sale there? Animal Kingdom is one of my favorites, not my husband's, but it's due for a refurbishment in 2025. What if they nail it and it can be bought for cheap?

Still no desire for CFW, but for folks that are Cabin-curious, this is a nice way to buy in and possibly blend points with another resort to maximize the promotions.

I have analysis paralysis. Bingo card is blown!

I play this game all the time too. Overthinking is fun.

Some of the other things I consider are:

- Poly will be one of the longest lasting points without resale restrictions (and copper creek)
- While I think sometimes the less years on Poly will cause a firesale, I think Disney knows that resale restrictions aren’t popular and given a choice between Riviera and Poly, most will choose Poly.
- I agree with your assessment of VDH and I think there’s room for growth in California but not so much in Florida anymore. Also, Epic Universe may hurt Disney and we’ll see them invest more in California rather than play catch up with Universal.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

- I agree with your assessment of VDH and I think there’s room for growth in California but not so much in Florida anymore. Also, Epic Universe may hurt Disney and we’ll see them invest more in California rather than play catch up with Universal.

I would not write off FL like that. I think the site where Reflections was going to be will be developed eventually. And it's UO who is catching up--will still have fewer parks, and the older ones aren't yet full day experiences. The audiences for WDW and UO also don't completely overlap. I don't think WDW will be devoid of investments for new attractions or new accommodations.

 

[Brian Noble]

I did that long ago because for some users the signatures take way too much screen space

Co-signed. (See what I did there?)

I think the site where Reflections was going to be will be developed eventually.

Ditto. Sooner rather than later, and in the same association as the cabins.

 

[tx911]

The right way to look at this: I really need some more points, let me check the incentives.

The way I invariably look at it: Oh, new incentives just came out? Let me see how many points I need!

Disney has me right where they want me

 

[heelphan]

I’m not a direct member yet, I just have 160 at SSR from resale only a year ago. I wanted/needed more points anyway. Seriously considering buying 300 at OKW and doing magical beginnings and maybe even renting some of those 300 to reduce the cost even further since I don’t need 300 right away anyway - I have my 2024 vacations booked. And finally, reselling my SSR. This seems like we may not see direct membership this low again, right? How could it really get lower than this?

 

[NY Pirate Princess]

I am going to connect with a guide and work the numbers. They called me yesterday but I was too afraid to answer the phone! Have a small limit on my Disney visa but could easily increase to absorb a 150 point contract, giving me 6 months to pay in full. Dangerous waters I am swimming in with all of you!

 

[NY Pirate Princess]

I’m not a direct member yet, I just have 160 at SSR from resale only a year ago. I wanted/needed more points anyway.

Okw 100 points less than a year ago.

I have my 2024 vacations booked. And finally, reselling my SSR. This seems like we may not see direct membership this low again, right? How could it really get lower than this?

Same. Same. Same!

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I am going to connect with a guide and work the numbers. They called me yesterday but I was too afraid to answer the phone! Have a small limit on my Disney visa but could easily increase to absorb a 150 point contract, giving me 6 months to pay in full. Dangerous waters I am swimming in with all of you!

You could ask to stagger the payments over 3 months to effectively give yourself 9 months total to pay it off

 

[davidhr]

If they do something similar with CCV, they’ll drive me close to bankruptcy.

Thankfully I’m not interested in OKW lol

 

[MartyParty]

Got my spreadsheet open - Aug use year as well w 200 Poly resale points, so I can do without the Tower.

See below....then you get $3,000 back after MB, so effective price is $21,750.

	Points	Per point after $40 incentive	Total Cost w Offer
Disney's OKW	150	$ 165.00	$ 24,750.00

So....

If you account for the $3k Magical Beginnings, that gets 150 points OKW direct down to $145/point. And....if you use your Disney Premier Visa card at 2% rebate (or any other card you like) that gets the price down to $142.10/point.

Oddly strange incentive to be offering for OKW. If you were wanting direct at $142'ish in 2024 that seems really low. Still, you can get resale for about half that amount.

Interesting times....

 

[BamaGuy44]

Ok quick sanity check, if we bought RIV with April Use Year, we would get 2024 points, and for June Use Year we would get 2023 points. But in both cases could sell those points with MB, and wouldn't pay dues on them. Is that correct?

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Ok quick sanity check, if we bought RIV with April Use Year, we would get 2024 points, and for June Use Year we would get 2023 points. But in both cases could sell those points with MB. Is that correct?

Correct. If you bought June UY you would give your 2023 points up for MB, and if April UY you would give your 2024 points up to MB.

 

[CarolynFH]

and wouldn't pay dues on them.

It doesn't matter which UY you buy, you'll pay calendar year 2024 dues prorated from the date you sign the papers. Direct is different from resale that way!

Remember, dues are for operations and maintenance during that calendar year. On the day you sign the papers for a direct purchase, you become an owner and are responsible from that day forward for those expenses, during what remains of that calendar year. You weren't an owner in calendar year 2023, so you aren't responsible for any of those expenses.

Resale is different - who covers dues from prior year is negotiable. The best way I've come up with to think about it is, if you bought a house in 2024 you wouldn't expect to pay 2023's electric bill or repairs or other expenses, which is what 2023 calendar year dues covered. But if you bought a DVC contract in 2024 with points banked from 2023 to 2034, it's like you have the use of two houses this year (or can rent one and stay in one) - but you have to pay the expenses for both of them.

 

[CastAStone]

Oddly strange incentive to be offering for OKW. If you were wanting direct at $142'ish in 2024 that seems really low. Still, you can get resale for about half that amount.

The 2057 OKW expirations, especially the ~150 point ones (160 is more common for OKW as it was the minimum for a while), are more like in the $100s-$110s.