Cases rising or dropping by you?

[JimMIA]

So I have a question. Our town was recently designated “yellow” by the state which means we are seeing an elevated risk of cases. They are defining high risk (red) as 8 or more cases per 100,000 people. We are yellow which is something like between 5-8 cases per 100,000. Our population is about 14,000 people and we have had a total of 105 cases.

Am I not seeing something, because this does not seem high risk to me at all. What am I missing?

Are those new cases per day, or TOTAL cases? Makes a difference.

 

[HeatherC]

Are those new cases per day, or TOTAL cases? Makes a difference.

Are those new cases per day, or TOTAL cases? Makes a difference.

Total. Cases so far is 105
We have had 10 of those cases in the last two weeks.

 

[RamblingMad]

Looks like testing is going down. Cases are going down. And deaths are going up. Makes sense as deaths lag. Who knows what impact schools will have on the pandemic.

 

[JimMIA]

Total. Cases so far is 105
We have had 10 of those cases in the last two weeks.

I'm always harping on the fallacy of looking only at single-day numbers, but there's also a huge fallacy in looking at total cases. That method counts cases that occurred six months ago.

Using total cases, THIRTY-SIX states have more than 1,000 total cases per 100,000 population. NINE states, including Florida, have more than 2,000 total cases per 100,000.

New Jersey has almost 180 deaths per 100,000 and New York has almost 170 -- but both states have very low rates of new cases right now.

A much more accurate measurement of the situation right now would be a rolling average (7-14 days) of confirmed new cases.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Total. Cases so far is 105
We have had 10 of those cases in the last two weeks.

If I had guess it's because in relation to your overall cases the rate of new cases is rapid or at least enough to cause concern. They are probably trying to not be like just about everywhere where the cases load of new cases rapidly went up and it takes work after the fact to get it back down.

If the 10 new cases is represented in the 105 total overall that's a 9.5% increase in 14 days.

 

[gwynne]

Looks like testing us going down. Cases are going down. And deaths are going up. Makes sense as deaths lag. Who knows what impact schools will have on the pandemic.

Our cases and deaths are up. I was heartened to see local epidemiologists pushing back firmly on incorrect and misleading info being spread.
Meanwhile reports of cases in 2 schools were announced yesterday.

 

[RamblingMad]

Our cases and deaths are up. I was heartened to see local epidemiologists pushing back firmly on incorrect and misleading info being spread.
Meanwhile reports of cases in 2 schools were announced yesterday.

It’s going to spread like wildfire in schools. I was talking overall.

 

[Aladora]

Ugh, after doing so well in May-June, BC is trending in the wrong direction. We had been posting <20 new cases per day but the over the last week those numbers are in the 40-50 range.

Yesterday Canada had 423 new cases and of those, 85 were in BC.

 

[HeatherC]

Thank you

If I had guess it's because in relation to your overall cases the rate of new cases is rapid or at least enough to cause concern. They are probably trying to not be like just about everywhere where the cases load of new cases rapidly went up and it takes work after the fact to get it back down.

If the 10 new cases is represented in the 105 total overall that's a 9.5% increase in 14 days.

Thank you! Now I understand it a little more clearly. The fact that 5-8 cases out of 100,000 people was what I was focusing on made it seem like a very small risk. But a 9.5 % increase in 14 days makes it much more obvious.

 

[JimMIA]

Florida's numbers are back within the realm of reality after yesterday's big glitch. For those who don't read every post, yesterday we had ONE lab report a huge number of backlogged test results -- some going back as far as JUNE. So yesterday's numbers were off the charts.

Today we're back to reality and the numbers are still coming down s-l-o-w-l-y.

Today, we reported 6,236 new cases at a positivity rate of 9.52%. We're also now getting totals for the previous 7 days and 14 days, so it's easy to calculate 7- and 14-day rolling averages. Today, our 7 day average is 6,707 (but I believe that includes the big dump glitch), and the 14-day average is 6,854.

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/08/13/coronavirus-florida-latest-covid-19-cases-and-deaths/
Hospitalizations are also continuing to trend downward s-l-o-w-l-y.

 

[robinb]

Our governor instituted a mandatory statewide mask order two weeks ago. Our 7-day average went from 887 per day on 7/30 and has gone down to 760 per day 7-day average as of yesterday.

 

[JimMIA]

Florida has now clearly established a slow downward trend in new cases, positivity rates, and hospitalizations.

• New cases were averaging more than 10,000 per day, now less than 7,000 per day even counting the big dump glitch.
• Positivity was around 11-12%, now well below 10% (8.08% today).
• And the chart below shows hospitalizations -- were 9,500, now 6,000

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/08/13/coronavirus-florida-latest-covid-19-cases-and-deaths/

 

[ORD2KOA]

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/cor...0200816-754d5hftcveqloko4t2gjepeoq-story.html

 

[JimMIA]

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/cor...0200816-754d5hftcveqloko4t2gjepeoq-story.html

Yep, another step in the right direction. I wouldn't focus on the low number of new cases for yesterday because only 50,456 tests are reported that day.

The good thing, to me, was the continued low positivity rate. When you take out the batch of weeks-late reports from one lab in Miami, we've been below 10% positivity 11 of the last 14 days and at or below 8% the last 3 days. That's a big improvement, and it's held now for two weeks.

Still a long way to go, tho.

 

[ORD2KOA]

But the death rate is going up.

The good thing, to me, was the continued low positivity rate

 

[sam_gordon]

But the death rate is going up.

But the death rate is from things that happened 4+ weeks ago.

 

[RamblingMad]

But the death rate is from things that happened 4+ weeks ago.

True.

But testing is also down, so I have no clue what's going on. Maybe folks wearing masks have slowed this thing down. Or maybe we're missing people by not testing enough. Your guess is as good as mine.

I'm waiting for the back to school outbreaks to occur.

 

[JimMIA]

Wherever you look in Florida -- no matter whose set of data you look at (as long as you look at the same set) there are several trends that don't change:

• The numbers (all of them) are too high. They will be too high until they all get to zero.
• New cases have been consistently trending down. They are not down every single day, but they are consistently declining
• Positivity rates are consistently declining. Daily test reports go up and down, but if you look at the positivity rate you won't be misled or confused.
• Hospitalizations are consistently declining.
• ED visits with flu symptoms (often confused with covid symptoms) are consistently declining
• ED visits with covid symptoms are consistently declining.

The decline in ED visits and hospitalizations, incidentally, are the reason why testing is declining. Fewer people are feeling sick, fewer people have associated with sick people, so fewer people feel the need to get tested.

(Orlando's testing numbers will take a sharp uptick over the next 10 days or so -- as will Tallahassee's and Gainesville's. In Orlando, more than 20,000 UCF dorm residents will be taking mandatory covid tests as a required part of dorm checkin. Dorm move-ins started Aug 8 and will continue past the start of classes on August 24. This week will be the big bulk of move-ins. Similar spurts will occur at UF and FSU with smaller numbers.)

 

[sam_gordon]

True.

But testing is also down, so I have no clue what's going on. Maybe folks wearing masks have slowed this thing down. Or maybe we're missing people by not testing enough. Your guess is as good as mine.

I'm waiting for the back to school outbreaks to occur.

Weren't you also waiting for:
* The protest outbreaks
* The Ozarks pool party outbreak
* The Disney reopening outbreak

 

[JimMIA]

Weren't you also waiting for:
* The protest outbreaks
* The Ozarks pool party outbreak
* The Disney reopening outbreak

I was actually expecting more cases tied to the protests, and certainly an outbreak from WDW reopening. But both of those are hard to trace. WDW would be the easiest, but we just didn't see anything.

The big super-spreader events are more local events and often don't make national news.

We had a big one here in Miami in February on Miami Beach -- the Winter Party Festival. Miami Beach refused to allow a lot of other events, but they let that one go because it's a big fundraiser for the LBGTQ community. We saw a number of cases and several deaths locally (first law enforcement officer, first Uber driver) directly traced to that event, but people came from all over for it and we don't know if or how the out-of-towners were affected.