Fearing 48 years of dues

[RoseGold]

I'd pick Dolphin over about half the inventory in DVC. I've been able to use my points well, because I took the time and learned the game -- so I haven't had to do that, but let's not act like this is all comparable.

Heck, I'd argue Dolphin is even superior as a hotel to the tired BW studio I got a few weeks ago. It was probably about the same in cost. But I had to buy into a timeshare and figure out how to book it. I consider owning DVC much more risky than I did when I bought in because of all the decisions Disney is making, APs being a very important one for me.

When I sell, which is looking increasingly likely, I'll just book at Swolphin and get a Halloween ticket and be happy.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I'd pick Dolphin over about half the inventory in DVC. I've been able to use my points well, because I took the time and learned the game -- so I haven't had to do that, but let's not act like this is all comparable.

Heck, I'd argue Dolphin is even superior as a hotel to the tired BW studio I got a few weeks ago. It was probably about the same in cost. But I had to buy into a timeshare and figure out how to book it. I consider owning DVC much more risky than I did when I bought in because of all the decisions Disney is making, APs being a very important one for me.

When I sell, which is looking increasingly likely, I'll just book at Swolphin and get a Halloween ticket and be happy.

Sounds like a great plan and a path to happiness for you. Awesome.

 

[DVCanadian]

I like the suggestion of renting the points to cover dues during times that we can’t travel. Will the per point rental rates increase over time similar to the dues?

Rental rates are linked to cash rates as the renters are comparing booking with a DVC rental vs paying cash and expecting a discount.
Renters don't care about how much the dues are.

 

[Nursemanit]

Well, two rooms at the Dolphin are nowhere near the same amenities, or quality as a 2-bedroom villa at the Riviera. The OP's question/concern was about the dues, not trying to find the cheapest way to go to WDW, but perhaps I misread the post. It's been known to happen.

I 100% agree with you that you can find cheaper places to stay and go to WDW if that is the goal.

There is no way you can even compare Rivera and Swolfin The Riviera is at best a class below - Try walking to Epcot or DHS from the Riveria.

 

[BeachClub2014]

There is no way you can even compare Rivera and Swolfin The Riviera is at best a class below - Try walking to Epcot or DHS from the Riveria.

I wasn't comparing the two.

I've done that walk many times, and it's a long one. I'd much rather ride the Skyliner.

 

[Nursemanit]

I wasn't comparing the two.

I've done that walk many times, and it's a long one. I'd much rather ride the Skyliner.

The boat is even faster than the Skyliner to DHS from SW and you don't have to make a change like the skyliner and worry about the weather -

your point that the transportation is better to Epcot / DHS from RR is better was ridiculous

 

[BeachClub2014]

The boat is even faster than the Skyliner to DHS from SW and you don't have to make a change like the skyliner and worry about the weather -

your point that the transportation is better to Epcot / DHS from RR is better was ridiculous

I'm not sure what you're reading? I never made that point.

There is no way you can even compare Rivera and Swolfin The Riviera is at best a class below - Try walking to Epcot or DHS from the Riveria.

You referenced trying to walk to Epcot or DHS from Riviera, which is actually a ridiculous statement if we want to go to what is ridiculous.

And if you think Riviera is "at best a class below" the Swan and Dolphin, fine. You'll get no argument from me. You have the right to be as wrong as you want.

 

[K6+Mickey]

Thank you everyone for your thoughts and input. Just made the call and bought 200pts at Riviera! Whoo hooo!

 

[sethschroeder]

RIV has the longest contract length, and yet is selling for at least 20% less than BLT, PVB, and VGF. The resale restriction certainly is having an impact; albeit perhaps not as significant as had been initially feared.

And it's not a sold out resort. Go back to 2018 and compare CCV resale to direct prices you will see the same.

Time left doesn't impact DVC resale that much except in the case of VWL vs CCV.

Also Rivera was a 30% discount via resale while Poly was 33%, BLT was 37%, and VGF was 15%.

VGF was an outlier simply because it was so expensive and has not corrected fully as people are holding out for it to be sold out again.

 

[sethschroeder]

The real test will come in 4-5 years when there'll be more people selling. There's only around 50 RIV resale contracts on the market right now, not enough to information to see how much of an impact resale restrictions have.

We will see but in the long run only about 1% of points turn over yearly. So while it's not the same volume right now it's not like it will be a crazy amount of people selling.

Also in 5 years you will have just 15 years left at all the other Epcot Resorts.

 

[sethschroeder]

Rental rates are linked to cash rates as the renters are comparing booking with a DVC rental vs paying cash and expecting a discount.
Renters don't care about how much the dues are.

How do you think cash rates are accounted for?

Cost to run resort + profit = cash rate

With DVC the profit part of the equation is locked in and already paid for upfront.

It pretty much is impossible for your MFs to be more than a cash stay unless Disney turns their hotels in to a loss leader to get park attendance.

 

[sethschroeder]

The boat is even faster than the Skyliner to DHS from SW and you don't have to make a change like the skyliner and worry about the weather -

your point that the transportation is better to Epcot / DHS from RR is better was ridiculous

Been there when the boats are closed. Not a pretty picture and your only option is to walk or wait.

Skyliner is a better option than the boat but the Skyliner will go down more often.

Benefit of the Cresent Lake area is the option to walk not the boat.

 

[elenex]

Don't get me wrong, I used to love the Swan & Dolphin, particularly the Dolphin. Got great rates through costco.

Then we had a kid, and realized that scene wasn't so friendly to us anymore. I understand the appeal and still enjoy the Dolphin in particular, but we absolutely made the right move over to DVC, splitting time with BWV and Poly. I still recommend S&D to friends without kids who are on a budget, but I can't agree that it is in the same class as the DVC resorts on Crescent Lake. Can't speak to RIV, haven't been there but word of mouth suggests it's quite nice.

 

[DVCanadian]

How do you think cash rates are accounted for?

Cost to run resort + profit = cash rate

With DVC the profit part of the equation is locked in and already paid for upfront.

It pretty much is impossible for your MFs to be more than a cash stay unless Disney turns their hotels in to a loss leader to get park attendance.

Rental rates are linked to the cost for a renter to pay cash to Disney for the same reservation (or similar) because renters won’t pay you more to rent than they can pay Disney directly for the same room but with more cancellation options.

Don’t think anyone is saying the dues would be more than the cash stay so not sure what you mean with your final sentences.

 

[Sandisw]

To me, buying resale is much less commitment because if I change my mind, I sell it. If you do that for RIV, after buying direct, you will take a big hit. Like driving a new car off the lot.

RIV has been open since 2019 and is half sold. Reality is we don’t know what will happen with the restrictions and the resale pricing in the future. To me, the resale restrictions are an automatic no for RIV, unless you really know you are committed for decades. That doesn’t sound like you.

I bought RIV for $162. Selling even today, I am not taking what I consider a big hit.

It’s 6 million plus points…even if it sold 100K a month since it started, which is a strong sales number, it would take close to 6 years to sell out.

Add in the pandemic and being almost half sold isn’t that bad for just over 3 years…especially for a resort that does have the restrictions.

You don’t like RIV and that is okay. I love RIV and that is okay. But I think it’s unfair to a potential buyer to not at least be sure the info you are sharing fit,

And, not all resale is a sure thing for not taking a hit. People paying what they are paying for some resorts very well could see that in a few years.

 

[Sandisw]

The real test will come in 4-5 years when there'll be more people selling. There's only around 50 RIV resale contracts on the market right now, not enough to information to see how much of an impact resale restrictions have.

It is also possible that more RIV owners keep it to rent out vs selling if the market takes a dive.

I don’t think anyone believes that the resale restrictions play no role. Of course they do because they are there.

I think people also assume DVD went in expecting it to sell as well as non restricted resorts did and must be disappointed. I don’t think that is the case. I think they knew it could take longer than normal and that it was about the long game…all future resorts having them…vs just RIV.

However, even without many contracts, people have bought them because they enjoy the resort enough to accept restricted points.

But, I agree it will be interesting to see what happens, along with the rest of resale given todays current climate and if DVD continues to use ROFR as much as they have.

 

[RoseGold]

You don’t like RIV and that is okay. I love RIV and that is okay. But I think it’s unfair to a potential buyer to not at least be sure the info you are sharing fit,

And, not all resale is a sure thing for not taking a hit. People paying what they are paying for some resorts very well could see that in a few years.

There are plenty of direct buyers for RIV and CCV who would take a big hit if they sold now. That's just math. Add in closing and commission to sell, and you would lose money selling right now, even when you bought RIV at 162.

If you bought resale in the last 2-3 years, pricing has gone up from when you bought.

This is like buying a new car off the lot mathematically. Doesn't mean it's the wrong choice for many, including you, but OP is on the fence. If you're on the fence, maybe buying new isn't the right choice.

 

[Sandisw]

There are plenty of direct buyers for RIV and CCV who would take a big hit if they sold now. That's just math. Add in closing and commission to sell, and you would lose money selling right now, even when you bought RIV at 162.

If you bought resale in the last 2-3 years, pricing has gone up from when you bought.

This is like buying a new car off the lot mathematically. Doesn't mean it's the wrong choice for many, including you, but OP is on the fence. If you're on the fence, maybe buying new isn't the right choice.

Of course, if you buy direct you take a hit, but your posts act like that is unique to RIV, and it is not. Any direct purchase, even my VGF is taking a hit. Matter of fact, if I had to sell that, my hit is just as great as it would be for RIV.

Just because resale has gone up, it doesn’t mean someone buying today is guaranteed to not lose money. Contracts are sitting much longer than they were and if DVD stops it’s ROFR like it has, many of those resorts will come down in price.

If Poly tower comes up with restrictions with a new association, Poly 1 contracts will take a hit too…just like those that bought VGF last year resale will be selling for a loss this year, now that direct pricing is where it is.

So, depending on the resort bought resale, people can still take the hit. If Disney stops taking SSR and AKV at the prices they are, those will drop and people buying today who want to sell in the next few years will very likely take a hit. Contracts are lasting much longer on the resale market than they did even 6 months ago.

 

[RoseGold]

To be fair, plenty of VGF resale buyers would also take a hit right now, at least for a couple years IMO.

But that's the exception in recent resale history.

 

[Sandisw]

To be fair, plenty of VGF resale buyers would also take a hit right now, at least for a couple years IMO.

But that's the exception in recent resale history.

I think that was more what I was getting at. It’s not just RIV and past performance of resale isn’t a guarantee that one won’t take a loss,

If things continue economically for the next year or two, many resale buyers buying this year will take some level of hit if they have to sell quickly.

All it takes is for DVD to start letting SSR or AKV pass in the $120s again, and even those go down.