How Worried Should We Be?

[GreatLakes]

I'm more curious than worried. I am avoiding anything really public and am just going to places like the grocery store or isolated places to go on family walks or run by myself. I am curious about all of the protests to see how it moves the numbers. If we see another spike it verifies my suspicion that we opened stuff up too early because people should still be at home and isolated. If we don't see a big spike I'll be closer towards adding more normalcy back into my life.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Just saw this about asymptomatic spread. I have NOT vetted further

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asy...-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Also this, although still too early to see the whole picture. But it’s encouraging

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...08-20-intl/h_e6b64dbb4ced7a368e2bc11fcab916fc

 

[RamblingMad]

Give it a couple of weeks.

 

[maddiel]

This is an interesting look at whether the protests will cause spikes in infection rates from an ER doctor/public health specialist : https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1269798948371341312.html

Basically, there hasn't been enough testing and tracking to know whether the protests or all the other changes in what is open to the public are more likely to cause future spikes

M.

 

[DLgal]

Give it a couple of weeks.

Give what a couple weeks? It's June. It's been a couple MONTHS. The sky hasn't fallen yet.

 

[DLgal]

Just saw this about asymptomatic spread. I have NOT vetted further

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asy...-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

This has been reported in several places going back at least a week. I have read more than one article with this information.

It seems like common sense to me. If a person isn't actively coughing or sneezing, the amount of viral particles they shed is likely not enough to infect others.

 

[RamblingMad]

Give what a couple weeks? It's June. It's been a couple MONTHS. The sky hasn't fallen yet.

We’re reopening. The second wave is coming.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Not worried because I did not attend any of the protests or know anyone that did. Riddle me this; What happens when we get 2 weeks out from the protests and the numbers DON'T go up? Because that's what happened at the beaches - those should have never been closed.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

This has been reported in several places going back at least a week. I have read more than one article with this information.

It seems like common sense to me. If a person isn't actively coughing or sneezing, the amount of viral particles they shed is likely not enough to infect others.

I agree with you.

And I'm glad to hear that it's been reported elsewhere. A quick google search didn't bring anything up, but I've found information related to Covid almost impossible to find as of late. I know there are more pressing matters, but it seems to strange to me to have it fall out of all conversation when it's something we're supposed to be SO worried out.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

We’re reopening. The second wave is coming.

Do you want cases to go up so you can tell everybody you told them so? Every post I read from you regarding this is how certain you are it's the end of days. You do realize that none of the spikes we've been warned about have actually materialized, right?

 

[RamblingMad]

Do you want cases to go up so you can tell everybody you told them so? Every post I read from you regarding this is how certain you are it's the end of days. You do realize that none of the spikes we've been warned about have actually materialized, right?

That’s only because we shut down. Now that we’re reopening it’s going to start spreading again. But it takes time to build up momentum. And it needs people to not wear masks and ignore social distancing.

It’s not the end times. I expect only a couple hundred thousand to die.

 

[Colleen27]

Give it a couple of weeks.

How long are we supposed to keep that posture? Because we're almost two months past the first of the near-weekly events that were supposed to cause a "huge" spike - Easter, the beach reopenings in late April, the anti-lockdown protests, Mother's Day, businesses reopenings from late April onward, Memorial Day - and rather than accepting that perhaps there is some cause for thinking the situation isn't quite as dire as initially thought, there's this mindset of "Just you wait, the reckoning is coming!"

 

[Colleen27]

That’s only because we shut down. Now that we’re reopening it’s going to start spreading again. But it takes time to build up momentum. And it needs people to not wear masks and ignore social distancing.

It’s not the end times. I expect only a couple hundred thousand to die.

The first states started reopening the last week of April. Georgia reopened most businesses on April 24 and 27. That's six weeks - the same amount of time it took New York City to go from first confirmed case to their peak. While I wouldn't expect to see that rate of spread, given that at least some people are wearing masks and modifying their behaviour to maintain some degree of social distancing, it is ample time to see pronounced increases beyond what could reasonably explained by increased testing. But we haven't really seen that in the data. Georgia's numbers show flat case counts despite increased testing, and a fairly stable R0 around 1.

When GA reopened, I was right there with you in thinking it much too soon. But the data to this point appears to suggest otherwise, and if we're not willing to let the data lead, we really have no compass at all for navigating this terrain.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

That’s only because we shut down. Now that we’re reopening it’s going to start spreading again. But it takes time to build up momentum. And it needs people to not wear masks and ignore social distancing.

It’s not the end times. I expect only a couple hundred thousand to die.

Except we're not "just" opening up. There have been states who were slow to shut down and early to open up. And even in those, there hasn't been the spikes we were warned about.

And even here, in CA, where our rules have been beyond strict, bordering on ridiculous for my county, people stopped listening to most of the rules, especially social distance and masks about a month ago. Well probably before that, but have no shame in breaking the rules and posting about it around then. Still no spike.

I agree with the shut down in the beginning. As we got a handle on this, as we learned more. It is not the same situation today. And while it wouldn't stop any of the protests, the lackadaisical attitude officials, health included, have had about them, speaks volumes to me.

 

[DeniseJH]

Just saw this about asymptomatic spread. I have NOT vetted further

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asy...-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

A Dr. Ashish Jha , a professor of global health and the Director of the Harvard Global Health Institute postulates that the WHO was actually forming a distinction between the words "asymptomatic" and "PRE-symptomatic", meaning those who did eventually display symptoms were passing along the virus. Don't argue with me, I'm just sharing a smart dude's opinion.

 

[DLgal]

I agree with you.

And I'm glad to hear that it's been reported elsewhere. A quick google search didn't bring anything up, but I've found information related to Covid almost impossible to find as of late. I know there are more pressing matters, but it seems to strange to me to have it fall out of all conversation when it's something we're supposed to be SO worried out.

I read a LOT of articles, from numerous sources. I remember having a conversation with a doctor on May 29 and she mentioned this point to me then. She even took her own mask off about halfway through our appointment. Right after that appointment, I read the same thing somewhere and then I passed the info to some family members because I assumed it was reliable knowledge at that point. I even posted the other day and shared an article that said 70% of imfected people don't even spread it to anyone. In my post, I also said that asymptomatic carriers were not thought to be spreading the virus.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I read a LOT of articles, from numerous sources. I remember having a conversation with a doctor on May 29 and she mentioned this point to me then. She even took her own mask off about halfway through our appointment. Right after that appointment, I read the same thing somewhere and then I passed the info to some family members because I assumed it was reliable knowledge at that point. I even posted the other day and shared an article that said 70% of imfected people don't even spread it to anyone. In my post, I also said that asymptomatic carriers were not thought to be spreading the virus.

I do remember you posted that because I asked for the link! Apparently I read too fast to realize the WHO was saying it. In either case, I think it's good news.

 

[RamblingMad]

Except we're not "just" opening up. There have been states who were slow to shut down and early to open up. And even in those, there hasn't been the spikes we were warned about.

And even here, in CA, where our rules have been beyond strict, bordering on ridiculous for my county, people stopped listening to most of the rules, especially social distance and masks about a month ago. Well probably before that, but have no shame in breaking the rules and posting about it around then. Still no spike.

I agree with the shut down in the beginning. As we got a handle on this, as we learned more. It is not the same situation today. And while it wouldn't stop any of the protests, the lackadaisical attitude officials, health included, have had about them, speaks volumes to me.

It is spiking. But NY is pushing it down overall.

Here are some examples:

Here's FL:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
Here's CA:

https://public.tableau.com/views/CO...ic?:embed=y&:display_count=no&:showVizHome=no
Here's AZ (click on confirmed cases by day):

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
Here's TX (click on trend; slope goes up after 5/25):

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

 

[DLgal]

I do remember you posted that because I asked for the link! Apparently I read too fast to realize the WHO was saying it. In either case, I think it's good news.

It IS good news!