How Worried Should We Be?

[TLSnell1981]

SC, FL, MO, and CA are all increasing their incidence. Not yet a spike, but heading on up.

Percentage of positive tests or hospitalizations?

 

[mom2aandj]

SC, FL, MO, and CA are all increasing their incidence. Not yet a spike, but heading on up.

Can you clarify what you mean by Florida is increasing their incidence? If you mean an increase in cases, yes and that is because Florida is doing more tests. The rate of positive tests is declining in Florida. See the Miami Herald, June 6:

While the state has seen its biggest daily gain in six weeks the past few days, the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests out of those reported in a single day has declined over the same time period, as the state provides testing to more people.

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243315321.html#storylink=cpy

 

[billlaurie]

In a broader sense I am interested in seeing what happens because it will give us a good idea of how contagious this is outdoors, not social distancing. While many were wearing masks, a good number were not. We have been told to wear masks AND stay 6 feet apart. On a more personal level, I am interested because my 21 year old, who is back home, participated in 2 protests, one in DC and one in MD. He said he wore masks.

 

[Christine]

In a broader sense I am interested in seeing what happens because it will give us a good idea of how contagious this is outdoors, not social distancing. While many were wearing masks, a good number were not. We have been told to wear masks AND stay 6 feet apart. On a more personal level, I am interested because my 21 year old, who is back home, participated in 2 protests, one in DC and one in MD. He said he wore masks.

Granted, I only watched snippets here and there of the DC protests and I was amazed at mask compliance. If I had to put a figure on it just from what I saw over the last few days, it looked to be about 98% wearing masks. It was rare that I saw anyone's full face on camera. Hope your son doesn't catch it. Will he be going for a test, even though asymptomatic at this point, because he is staying with you? At least in Virginia, testing is plentiful, no symptoms required.

 

[mjkacmom]

Granted, I only watched snippets here and there of the DC protests and I was amazed at mask compliance. If I had to put a figure on it just from what I saw over the last few days, it looked to be about 98% wearing masks. It was rare that I saw anyone's full face on camera. Hope your son doesn't catch it. Will he be going for a test, even though asymptomatic at this point, because he is staying with you? At least in Virginia, testing is plentiful, no symptoms required.

My husband and kids are going to a protest today (with masks), dd19 has been to one already. Ds22 is home from college for a bit. They are all going to be tested next week.

 

[billlaurie]

Granted, I only watched snippets here and there of the DC protests and I was amazed at mask compliance. If I had to put a figure on it just from what I saw over the last few days, it looked to be about 98% wearing masks. It was rare that I saw anyone's full face on camera. Hope your son doesn't catch it. Will he be going for a test, even though asymptomatic at this point, because he is staying with you? At least in Virginia, testing is plentiful, no symptoms required.

I have asked him to test. He participated Monday and Tuesday, so I think at least a week to 10 days, so mid week.

 

[5kidsmommy]

Ohio still has very limited tested. I believe it's still only healthcare workers and those over 65 with symptoms or people hospitalized. We've been open for a few weeks. I have a part time delivery job and people are definetely back to getting together. We haven't seen a huge increase at all, in fact there has been a decline. We aren't planning on going to Cedar Point mostly because it's a mess on a good day, I can't imagine how bad it'll be now.

 

[DLgal]

Interesting! That would be really good news. Will you share the link please?

https://www.businessinsider.com/sup...ount-for-most-coronavirus-transmission-2020-6
@sam_gordon
@wenrob

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

https://www.businessinsider.com/sup...ount-for-most-coronavirus-transmission-2020-6
@sam_gordon
@wenrob

Thanks!

 

[wenrob]

https://www.businessinsider.com/sup...ount-for-most-coronavirus-transmission-2020-6
@sam_gordon
@wenrob

Thank you!

 

[JimMIA]

Can you clarify what you mean by Florida is increasing their incidence? If you mean an increase in cases, yes and that is because Florida is doing more tests. The rate of positive tests is declining in Florida. See the Miami Herald, June 6:

While the state has seen its biggest daily gain in six weeks the past few days, the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests out of those reported in a single day has declined over the same time period, as the state provides testing to more people.

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243315321.html#storylink=cpy

This is correct info for Florida.

Florida has roughly doubled our testing in the last three weeks -- from a little over 100,000 per week to more than 200,000 per week.

Our target is <10% positive tests, and we've been well below that for a long time -- below 4% for the last 5 weeks.

 

[godisney14]

This is correct info for Florida.

Florida has roughly doubled our testing in the last three weeks -- from a little over 100,000 per week to more than 200,000 per week.

Our target is <10% positive tests, and we've been well below that for a long time -- below 4% for the last 5 weeks.

If the percentage is staying roughly the same as before, wouldn’t that mean the number of cases has doubled in the last three weeks? That would be quite a doubling time relative to the national average I think.

 

[JimMIA]

If the percentage is staying roughly the same as before, wouldn’t that mean the number of cases has doubled in the last three weeks? That would be quite a doubling time relative to the national average I think.

Hmmm...good point, but it's not that drastic. Yes the number of cases have risen, but the positive test rate is down, ED visits with flu-like symptoms are down, and ED visits with Covid-like symptoms are down. Here are the charts.



The numbers I'd like to see are hospitalizations, but I think those numbers are just impossible in a state the size of Florida.

My gut feeling is that we are finding asymptomatic new patients, not so much sick people, but it's hard to really tell.

 

[godisney14]

Hmmm...good point, but it's not that drastic. Yes the number of cases have risen, but the positive test rate is down, ED visits with flu-like symptoms are down, and ED visits with Covid-like symptoms are down. Here are the charts.

View attachment 499723

The numbers I'd like to see are hospitalizations, but I think those numbers are just impossible in a state the size of Florida.

My gut feeling is that we are finding asymptomatic new patients, not so much sick people, but it's hard to really tell.

Interesting.
So, if I’m correct, FL reopened around May 18. This is when the above graph of new cases is showing an increase in daily cases from ~4,600 to ~5,500 in a week. Then it moved up a lot higher to ~7,500 a week after Memorial Day weekend. Sounds logical. As you say, it is likely more of asymtpomatic cases, probably in the younger crowd coming out of hibernation. Would be interesting to see how things turn out in the weeks ahead as more asymptomatic people roam around.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Interesting.
So, if I’m correct, FL reopened around May 18. This is when the above graph of new cases is showing an increase in daily cases from ~4,600 to ~5,500 in a week. Then it moved up a lot higher to ~7,500 a week after Memorial Day weekend. Sounds logical. As you say, it is likely more of asymtpomatic cases, probably in the younger crowd coming out of hibernation. Would be interesting to see how things turn out in the weeks ahead as more asymptomatic people roam around.

Along those lines, and obviously completely anecdotal, a bunch of universities are reporting cases among their sports team, which all recently resumed. It appears ALL are asymptomatic. I don't have the answers, but it makes me really wonder how many people are truly asymptomatic. I know they're encouraging testing here, symptoms or not, but I have no reason to do it right now. I sure hope we some accurate antibody testing soon. Not because it changes my behavior, but because with such a large percentage of asymptomatic carriers, I'm really curious.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/us/universities-athletic-programs-coronavirus/index.html

 

[JimMIA]

Interesting.
So, if I’m correct, FL reopened around May 18. This is when the above graph of new cases is showing an increase in daily cases from ~4,600 to ~5,500 in a week. Then it moved up a lot higher to ~7,500 a week after Memorial Day weekend. Sounds logical. As you say, it is likely more of asymtpomatic cases, probably in the younger crowd coming out of hibernation. Would be interesting to see how things turn out in the weeks ahead as more asymptomatic people roam around.

The actual new case numbers are 5/11 4.8K; 5/18 also 4.8K but a few more; 5/25 5.3K (increase of 500); 5/31 7.4 K.

The testing numbers doubled between 5/11 and 5/18 and thereafter.

I don't think Memorial Day will be a big deal. It's not a huge weekend here like it is up north

 

[godisney14]

Along those lines, and obviously completely anecdotal, a bunch of universities are reporting cases among their sports team, which all recently resumed. It appears ALL are asymptomatic. I don't have the answers, but it makes me really wonder how many people are truly asymptomatic. I know they're encouraging testing here, symptoms or not, but I have no reason to do it right now. I sure hope we some accurate antibody testing soon. Not because it changes my behavior, but because with such a large percentage of asymptomatic carriers, I'm really curious.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/us/universities-athletic-programs-coronavirus/index.html

I’m curious why those specific handful of athletes from the schools mentioned in that article were tested to begin with? Doesn’t mention literally anything besides a few athletes were tested and they were asymptomatic. At least in one example, at OKU, it said that 150+ were tested and 3 were positive (all being asymptomatic).

At least from whatever info was given in that article, it does kind of match up to everything else I’ve read ever since. The true % of positive cases (including asymptomatic) are likely around low to mid single digits for most of the country, except places like hotspot zones of NYC, which is probably around 10-15%.

That’s both good and bad news.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I’m curious why those specific handful of athletes from the schools mentioned in that article were tested to begin with? Doesn’t mention literally anything besides a few athletes were tested and they were asymptomatic. At least in one example, at OKU, it said that 150+ were tested and 3 were positive (all being asymptomatic).

At least from whatever info was given in that article, it does kind of match up to everything else I’ve read ever since. The true % of positive cases (including asymptomatic) are likely around low to mid single digits for most of the country, except places like hotspot zones of NYC, which is probably around 10-15%.

That’s both good and bad news.

I don’t know. Possibly as a condition of coming back to play/returning to campus? Everybody got tested? It just really makes me question how many of us are asymptomatic!

 

[Southernmiss]

Yes, in our state college athletes reported for training on June 1st. All athletes and staff were tested and at least one athlete and a staff member tested positive.

They were immediately quarantined for 14 days with necessities. The staff member was at home, the athlete was in an isolated apartment.

I

 

[Colleen27]

SC, FL, MO, and CA are all increasing their incidence. Not yet a spike, but heading on up.

They're all increasing their number of reported cases, but that's to be expected when testing is expanded. From what I've seen, they aren't seeing increased spread (as indicated by the percentage of tests coming back positive or the effective R0 of the state's outbreak). And with the exception of CA, they all also reopened both low- and high-risk businesses in pretty quick succession in addition to having those high-profile moments. But they're still holding pretty steady on the more constant measures of the pandemic's severity.

Granted, I only watched snippets here and there of the DC protests and I was amazed at mask compliance. If I had to put a figure on it just from what I saw over the last few days, it looked to be about 98% wearing masks. It was rare that I saw anyone's full face on camera. Hope your son doesn't catch it. Will he be going for a test, even though asymptomatic at this point, because he is staying with you? At least in Virginia, testing is plentiful, no symptoms required.

The one we attended had very close to 100% mask compliance as well. Basically the only people in attendance not wearing them were the police, interestingly enough. I was a little surprised, both that the police departments involved didn't require personnel to wear them and that virtually all of the protesters were wearing them despite the relatively hot weather.