Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[DVCsloth]

Maybe Disney decided that they needed to include the tower in the current association because they want it to sell out fairly soon. I don't think they were very upfront about this. I have no interest in the tower being in the same association. We mostly stay in 1br's and I don't think I would want to take a chance at having an issue booking it when there are so many points eligible at 11 months.

 

[GoingSince1990]

Maybe Disney decided that they needed to include the tower in the current association because they want it to sell out fairly soon. I don't think they were very upfront about this. I have no interest in the tower being in the same association. We mostly stay in 1br's and I don't think I would want to take a chance at having an issue booking it when there are so many points eligible at 11 months.

Has there ever been a DVC resort where people have trouble getting a 1 BR at 11 months? I’m not sure that the new PVB would be any different. Studios are by far the most in demand and I can see lots of people wanting to book studios in the tower for the novelty value, but 1 BRs should be much easier.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Maybe Disney decided that they needed to include the tower in the current association because they want it to sell out fairly soon. I don't think they were very upfront about this. I have no interest in the tower being in the same association. We mostly stay in 1br's and I don't think I would want to take a chance at having an issue booking it when there are so many points eligible at 11 months.

The Poly tower seems to be adding fewer 1BR's than VGF but I expect the booking trends to be relatively similar so that it wouldn't be an issue 99% of the year if you book at 11 months. The 1st week of Dec and a couple other odd dates might cause a tiny scramble.

 

[DVCsloth]

Has there ever been a DVC resort where people have trouble getting a 1 BR at 11 months? I’m not sure that the new PVB would be any different. Studios are by far the most in demand and I can see lots of people wanting to book studios in the tower for the novelty value, but 1 BRs should be much easier.

I agree, but I think others buying direct will be looking for the new studios a 2 BR's. 1 BR's may be because they require double the points of a studio.

 

[DVCsloth]

The Poly tower seems to be adding fewer 1BR's than VGF but I expect the booking trends to be relatively similar so that it wouldn't be an issue 99% of the year if you book at 11 months. The 1st week of Dec and a couple other odd dates might cause a tiny scramble.

I've also noticed in the past the Polynesian studios were usually available at 7 months most of the time. This was not the case with VGF as far as I can remember. So the Polynesian owners were most likely booking larger units at 7 months at other resorts.

 

[maui22]

The Poly tower seems to be adding fewer 1BR's than VGF but I expect the booking trends to be relatively similar so that it wouldn't be an issue 99% of the year if you book at 11 months. The 1st week of Dec and a couple other odd dates might cause a tiny scramble.

@aka Charles had a good post awhile back using floor plans for the first two floors of the tower that were filed.
https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-poly2-pricing-thread.3875905/post-65060506

Tower may have 88 1BRs, which would exceed VGF's 47.

Dedicated two bedrooms are the category that may be the hardest to book.

Until more data is out, this is all speculation.

 

[maui22]

Combining @aka Charles post from last September with existing PVB room count.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-poly2-pricing-thread.3875905/page-74#post-65060506

Combined resort may have:

• 24 duo studios
• 360 longhouse studios
• 138 tower studios
• 88 tower lockoff studios
• 88 tower lockoff 1BRs
• 6 tower dedicated 2BRs
• Possibly 8 tower GVs???
• 20 bungalows

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

@aka Charles had a good post awhile back using floor plans for the first two floors of the tower that were filed.
https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-poly2-pricing-thread.3875905/post-65060506

Tower may have 88 1BRs, which would exceed VGF's 47.

Dedicated two bedrooms are the category that may be the hardest to book.

Until more data is out, this is all speculation.

Thanks for that. I had found some slightly different numbers a couple other places. So yes, if they make the 2BR's mostly or all lock-offs that will increase the number of 1BRs and make the 2BR's more difficult. Perhaps they'll affect the demand for the 2BR's with the point charts.
Then the number of potential 1BR's will be close to double what is available VGF and even easier as it's typical to still see 1BR availability there at 7 months.
To add to the speculation, although this probably has been brought up, I think that is just another note that DVC always planned to add this to the existing association. Otherwise they are weighted far too heavily with 1BR's in the tower.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I've also noticed in the past the Polynesian studios were usually available at 7 months most of the time. This was not the case with VGF as far as I can remember. So the Polynesian owners were most likely booking larger units at 7 months at other resorts.

VGF now frequently has resort studio availability at 7 months since adding BPK. For PVB, which really only has studios, I didn't think it was surprising that there was that type of availability as most resort have something left. My consideration is towards the VGF that exists today with what might be similar to PVB of tomorrow if the Tower is added.

 

[Cabius]

Combining @aka Charles post from last September with existing PVB room count.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-poly2-pricing-thread.3875905/page-74#post-65060506

Combined resort may have:

• 24 duo studios
• 360 longhouse studios
• 138 tower studios
• 88 tower lockoff studios
• 88 tower lockoff 1BRs
• 6 tower dedicated 2BRs
• Possibly 8 tower GVs???
• 20 bungalows

The thing that has boggled my mind all along is that decisions about same vs new association have such a huge impact on the ideal buildout of inventory in the tower. Maybe they have the flexibility to adjust dedicated vs lock-off until late in the construction process?

• If it's a new association, you'd want a complete mix of all inventory types to create a balanced resort offering.
  
  
• If it's added to PVB, you'd probably build a lot fewer studios, because you already have so many at the resort, and want to complement that with 1BR and 2BR inventory.

Adding up to 226 Studios to a resort that already has 360 seems nuts -- at 586, that's significantly more studios than at SSR! And having only 6 dedicated 2BRs when there is so much pent-up demand from families outgrowing PVB studios is wild. That would be a pretty bad unit mix without the existing PVB room profile; in combination, it just seems insane.

I have to wonder if these estimates are off, and we'll see a lot more 1BRs and dedicated 2BR units than the first couple of floors imply.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The thing that has boggled my mind all along is that decisions about same vs new association have such a huge impact on the ideal buildout of inventory in the tower. Maybe they have the flexibility to adjust dedicated vs lock-off until late in the construction process?

• If it's a new association, you'd want a complete mix of all inventory types to create a balanced resort offering.
  
  
• If it's added to PVB, you'd probably build a lot fewer studios, because you already have so many at the resort, and want to complement that with 1BR and 2BR inventory.

Adding up to 226 Studios to a resort that already has 360 seems nuts -- at 586, that's significantly more studios than at SSR! And having only 6 dedicated 2BRs when there is so much pent-up demand from families outgrowing PVB studios is wild. That would be a pretty bad unit mix without the existing PVB room profile; in combination, it just seems insane.

I have to wonder if these estimates are off, and we'll see a lot more 1BRs and dedicated 2BR units than the first couple of floors imply.

The lockoff would be their hedge on what is more in demand. 2BR's or LOTS of studios. But I do agree that more dedicated 2BR's would be a better idea.

 

[mkatsy]

The thing that has boggled my mind all along is that decisions about same vs new association have such a huge impact on the ideal buildout of inventory in the tower. Maybe they have the flexibility to adjust dedicated vs lock-off until late in the construction process?

• If it's a new association, you'd want a complete mix of all inventory types to create a balanced resort offering.
  
  
• If it's added to PVB, you'd probably build a lot fewer studios, because you already have so many at the resort, and want to complement that with 1BR and 2BR inventory.

Adding up to 226 Studios to a resort that already has 360 seems nuts -- at 586, that's significantly more studios than at SSR! And having only 6 dedicated 2BRs when there is so much pent-up demand from families outgrowing PVB studios is wild. That would be a pretty bad unit mix without the existing PVB room profile; in combination, it just seems insane.

I have to wonder if these estimates are off, and we'll see a lot more 1BRs and dedicated 2BR units than the first couple of floors imply.

Is there a standard formula for room inventory, or is each resort different?

 

[Cabius]

Is there a standard formula for room inventory, or is each resort different?

Of the existing resorts (excluding PVB), VGF has the fewest dedicated 2BRs with 47, which is still WAAYYYY more than the 6 predicted in this thread.

I put together the table below from internet sources. (This site in its infinite wisdom won't let me post links, so I've aggregated for comparison.) It lists Dedicated & LO 2BRs at VGF (fewest) and SSR (most) as well as CCV and RIV (the two most recent).

In addition to room counts, I've listed the minimum and maximum number of rooms bookable as 2BRs, based on treating every lock-off as a split 1BR/Studio, or every lock-off as a combined 2BR. Obviously the reality will fall somewhere in between, but it provides some anchoring.

	VGF	SSR	RIV	CCV	PVB Tower???	PVB w/ Tower???
Dedicated 2BR	47	360	90	56	6?	6?
Lock-Off 2BR	47	432	148	36	88?	88?
Possible 2BRs	94	792	238	92	94?	94?
Max Units (all LO split)	347	1320	489	220	352?	732?
Minimum 2BR %*	47 / 347 13.5%	360 / 1320 27.3%	90 / 489 18.4%	56 / 220 25.5%	6? / 352? 1.7%?	6? / 732? 0.8%?
Min Units (all LO combined)	300	888	341	184	264?	644?
Maximum 2BR %**	94 / 300 31.3%	792 / 888 89.2%	238 / 341 69.8%	92 / 184 50%	94? / 264? 35.6%?	94? / 644? 14.5%?

Note: I'm excluding Bungalows/Cabins from 2BR inventory as their GV-esque price point puts them in a category all their own.

* Minimum 2BR % = Dedicated 2BR / Max Units (all LO Split) -- e.g., if every LO is booked as a Studio + 1BR

* Maximum 2BR % = Dedicated + Lock-Off 2BR / Min Units (all LO combined) -- e.g. if every LO is booked as a 2BR

All this to say: while there's a good bit of variance from resort to resort, the PVB tower by itself would be a huge outlier in terms of the number of 2BRs (esp. dedicated) - even moreso if considering it as an addition to the already-studio heavy PVB longhouses.

 

[mkatsy]

Of the existing resorts (excluding PVB), VGF has the fewest dedicated 2BRs with 47, which is still WAAYYYY more than the 6 predicted in this thread.

I put together the table below from internet sources. (This site in its infinite wisdom won't let me post links, so I've aggregated for comparison.) It lists Dedicated & LO 2BRs at VGF (fewest) and SSR (most) as well as CCV and RIV (the two most recent).

In addition to room counts, I've listed the minimum and maximum number of rooms bookable as 2BRs, based on treating every lock-off as a split 1BR/Studio, or every lock-off as a combined 2BR. Obviously the reality will fall somewhere in between, but it provides some anchoring.

	VGF	SSR	RIV	CCV	PVB Tower???	PVB w/ Tower???
Dedicated 2BR	47	360	90	56	6?	6?
Lock-Off 2BR	47	432	148	36	88?	88?
Possible 2BRs	94	792	238	92	94?	94?
Max Units (all LO split)	347	1320	489	220	352?	732?
Minimum 2BR %*	47 / 347 13.5%	360 / 1320 27.3%	90 / 489 18.4%	56 / 220 25.5%	6? / 352? 1.7%?	6? / 732? 0.8%?
Min Units (all LO combined)	300	888	341	184	264?	644?
Maximum 2BR %**	94 / 300 31.3%	792 / 888 89.2%	238 / 341 69.8%	92 / 184 50%	94? / 264? 35.6%?	94? / 644? 14.5%?

Note: I'm excluding Bungalows/Cabins from 2BR inventory as their GV-esque price point puts them in a category all their own.

* Minimum 2BR % = Dedicated 2BR / Max Units (all LO Split) -- e.g., if every LO is booked as a Studio + 1BR

* Maximum 2BR % = Dedicated + Lock-Off 2BR / Min Units (all LO combined) -- e.g. if every LO is booked as a 2BR

All this to say: while there's a good bit of variance from resort to resort, the PVB tower by itself would be a huge outlier in terms of the number of 2BRs (esp. dedicated) - even moreso if considering it as an addition to the already-studio heavy PVB longhouses.

Do you think that's an indication that it's going to be very point heavy, so they are anticipating studio demand?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Of the existing resorts (excluding PVB), VGF has the fewest dedicated 2BRs with 47, which is still WAAYYYY more than the 6 predicted in this thread.

I put together the table below from internet sources. (This site in its infinite wisdom won't let me post links, so I've aggregated for comparison.) It lists Dedicated & LO 2BRs at VGF (fewest) and SSR (most) as well as CCV and RIV (the two most recent).

In addition to room counts, I've listed the minimum and maximum number of rooms bookable as 2BRs, based on treating every lock-off as a split 1BR/Studio, or every lock-off as a combined 2BR. Obviously the reality will fall somewhere in between, but it provides some anchoring.

	VGF	SSR	RIV	CCV	PVB Tower???	PVB w/ Tower???
Dedicated 2BR	47	360	90	56	6?	6?
Lock-Off 2BR	47	432	148	36	88?	88?
Possible 2BRs	94	792	238	92	94?	94?
Max Units (all LO split)	347	1320	489	220	352?	732?
Minimum 2BR %*	47 / 347 13.5%	360 / 1320 27.3%	90 / 489 18.4%	56 / 220 25.5%	6? / 352? 1.7%?	6? / 732? 0.8%?
Min Units (all LO combined)	300	888	341	184	264?	644?
Maximum 2BR %**	94 / 300 31.3%	792 / 888 89.2%	238 / 341 69.8%	92 / 184 50%	94? / 264? 35.6%?	94? / 644? 14.5%?

Note: I'm excluding Bungalows/Cabins from 2BR inventory as their GV-esque price point puts them in a category all their own.

* Minimum 2BR % = Dedicated 2BR / Max Units (all LO Split) -- e.g., if every LO is booked as a Studio + 1BR

* Maximum 2BR % = Dedicated + Lock-Off 2BR / Min Units (all LO combined) -- e.g. if every LO is booked as a 2BR

All this to say: while there's a good bit of variance from resort to resort, the PVB tower by itself would be a huge outlier in terms of the number of 2BRs (esp. dedicated) - even moreso if considering it as an addition to the already-studio heavy PVB longhouses.

Of course BWV has zero 2BR's. Every single one is a lock-off.

 

[Cabius]

Do you think that's an indication that it's going to be very point heavy, so they are anticipating studio demand?

Personally, I expect point charts to be 5%-15% higher than at VGF just because that's how the existing PVB studios are priced, and it anchors my expectations. But that wouldn't be enough to push it into 'nobody wants a 2BR' territory, especially when there are folks like me who will weigh booking 2 Studios vs adding on points to get a 2BR instead.

It's possible that, given the glut of studios, demand for the LO studios will be low enough to leave reasonable 2BR capacity. Arguably the more dedicated studios there are, the less pressure there is on LOs. When there aren't enough studios, all the LO studios get booked up and 2BRs become hard to find. This may be especially true if, once newness wears off, point chart + size lead folks to prefer the longhouses for studios.

It's also possible we'll end up with more 2BRs then folks expect based on the limited info we have!

Of course BWV has zero 2BR's. Every single one is a lock-off.

True! PVB with very few dedicated 2BRs would follow the BWV model, but that was a relatively early DVC resort, and would be an interesting departure from recent trends.

Anyway, we'll know more when we know more, but as somebody who is hoping to book 2BRs at 11 months, I hope that (after the first few years) we end up with a healthy balance of demand!

 

[hockeydad21]

The thing that has boggled my mind all along is that decisions about same vs new association have such a huge impact on the ideal buildout of inventory in the tower. Maybe they have the flexibility to adjust dedicated vs lock-off until late in the construction process?

• If it's a new association, you'd want a complete mix of all inventory types to create a balanced resort offering.
  
  
• If it's added to PVB, you'd probably build a lot fewer studios, because you already have so many at the resort, and want to complement that with 1BR and 2BR inventory.

Adding up to 226 Studios to a resort that already has 360 seems nuts -- at 586, that's significantly more studios than at SSR! And having only 6 dedicated 2BRs when there is so much pent-up demand from families outgrowing PVB studios is wild. That would be a pretty bad unit mix without the existing PVB room profile; in combination, it just seems insane.

I have to wonder if these estimates are off, and we'll see a lot more 1BRs and dedicated 2BR units than the first couple of floors imply.

I do feel like these estimates are likely off. Like you said, the number just seems insanely high for any resort, let alone a resort that is being tied into an association composed of mainly studios. My assumption is everyone is basing the type of room off of the balconies, but I'm not sure we can do that based on the permits filed back in September. If you take a look at the image below, you'll see that the dedicated 2 bedroom and the lockoff 2 bedroom have the same balcony configuration with a divider separating 1/3 of the entire balcony space. Due to this, I think it is very difficult to make any assumptions on 2 bedrooms (dedicated vs lockoff). The only tell tale sign is the private entry door to the studio portion of the 2 bedroom lockoff, which no one can accurately see from the outside.

I don't think we'll get an accurate room breakdown until permits are filed for every single floor or if/when Disney tells us just prior to it going on sale.

 

[mkatsy]

I gotta be honest, if he thinks the 2017 Pandora is valid competition for Epic Universe, we are WAY overthinking this tower.

 

[maui22]

The thing that has boggled my mind all along is that decisions about same vs new association have such a huge impact on the ideal buildout of inventory in the tower. Maybe they have the flexibility to adjust dedicated vs lock-off until late in the construction process?

• If it's a new association, you'd want a complete mix of all inventory types to create a balanced resort offering.
  
  
• If it's added to PVB, you'd probably build a lot fewer studios, because you already have so many at the resort, and want to complement that with 1BR and 2BR inventory.

Adding up to 226 Studios to a resort that already has 360 seems nuts -- at 586, that's significantly more studios than at SSR! And having only 6 dedicated 2BRs when there is so much pent-up demand from families outgrowing PVB studios is wild. That would be a pretty bad unit mix without the existing PVB room profile; in combination, it just seems insane.

I have to wonder if these estimates are off, and we'll see a lot more 1BRs and dedicated 2BR units than the first couple of floors imply.

Might Disney want more studios in hopes of locking in Poly hotel guests into DVC?
My thought is studios are easier for someone used to staying in hotel to afford.

Aren’t 1BRs double the points of a studio. If the tower has mostly 1BRs and studios, wouldn’t Disney’s hotel side cost Disney less operate? Expenses would should even more to the tower.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Personally, I expect point charts to be 5%-15% higher than at VGF just because that's how the existing PVB studios are priced, and it anchors my expectations. But that wouldn't be enough to push it into 'nobody wants a 2BR' territory, especially when there are folks like me who will weigh booking 2 Studios vs adding on points to get a 2BR instead.

The VGF bedrooms have limited/modest views. I would believe that the standard PVB Tower 1/2 bedrooms will be only slightly higher than the VGF ones, but I would expect that about half of them will be “theme park view” and more than 125% of VGF 1/2 bedrooms.