It's 3-4 hours from the time when you arrive at your resort. A few times for us it's taken longer. When we're on a flight that gets in at 5 or later, we usually don't count on seeing our bags until morning.
Part of the appeal of a Disney vacation for us is the Magical Express luggage transfer. We put the yellow tags on our luggage and get on the bus right from our flight. We put into our carry-on luggage anything that we will need overnight and for the following morning. If the luggage hasn't arrived when we want to go to bed, we call bell services and request they hold our luggage until morning when it arrives. We also request no phone call about our luggage (it's happened twice despite us asking them not to deliver it). We put the Do Not Disturb sign on our door and go to sleep. First thing in the morning, I call to request the luggage. We have it before we're ready to leave for the parks that day.
If we don't ask them to wait til the morning would they deliver after 1am?