News Round Up 2021

[New Mouse]

I think we’ll see big crowds in September/October depending on where we are with the virus...and not just because of Disney. I think Halloween Horror Nights is going to smash their attendance records. I think there will be a lot of demand for guests going to both Universal and Disney around the 50th season. The anniversary on one side, and you have Velocicoaster and HHN on the other side. Or maybe I’m the only one that can’t wait for that combo trip in the fall

I think youre kidding yourself if you think hhn will be allowed anywhere near the capacity of the past.

 

[Farro]

I think youre kidding yourself if you think hhn will be allowed anywhere near the capacity of the past.

New year, same Mouse.

 

[Mit88]

I think youre kidding yourself if you think hhn will be allowed anywhere near the capacity of the past.

Allowed? They’re allowed to do anything they want according to DeSantis. They don’t seem to care much about distancing with guests seeing how they corralled guests in yesterday. In 8 months, I’m positive Universal will “allow” themselves to have a packed HHN, especially after losing out on all the money last year

 

[Cheburashka]

Rumor

https://blogmickey.com/2021/01/rumo...to-bring-back-extra-magic-hours-with-a-twist/

It would be awesome if they did this. It's about time that resort guests start getting better perks for paying the Disney premium to stay on property.

 

[skeeter31]

Allowed? They’re allowed to do anything they want according to DeSantis. They don’t seem to care much about distancing with guests seeing how they corralled guests in yesterday. In 8 months, I’m positive Universal will “allow” themselves to have a packed HHN, especially after losing out on all the money last year

Plus, being UO they’d never get any bad press like Disney would if they decide to hold MNSSHP.

 

[New Mouse]

Allowed? They’re allowed to do anything they want according to DeSantis. They don’t seem to care much about distancing with guests seeing how they corralled guests in yesterday. In 8 months, I’m positive Universal will “allow” themselves to have a packed HHN, especially after losing out on all the money last year

Then why have capacity limits now?

 

[SaintsManiac]

Then why have capacity limits now?

There will be limits until the vaccine is available to everyone.

 

[abs1978]

I have to admit I don't quite understand what Disney is doing. Or why. I have always been a Disney apologist that can see things from their POV but I don't on the new rides. There is no reason they can't continue to work on the rides and have them ready to go once capacity can increase. After a certain point the money argument doesn't make any sense. They are coming off looking mighty greedy if that is the case.

 

[skeeter31]

I have to admit I don't quite understand what Disney is doing. Or why. I have always been a Disney apologist that can see things from their POV but I don't on the new rides. There is no reason they can't continue to work on the rides and have them ready to go once capacity can increase. After a certain point the money argument doesn't make any sense. They are coming off looking mighty greedy if that is the case.

They are not making anywhere near the amount of money they normally make during a year. Multiple resorts are closed in Florida, WDW parks are only at 35% capacity, DL has been completely closed for almost a year (minus a few downtown Disney stores getting to open for maybe a month or 2), DL Paris keeps opening and then closing. They can’t just keep working on rides as they have in the past because they don’t have the same level of income coming in.

 

[dina444444]

They are not making anywhere near the amount of money they normally make during a year. Multiple resorts are closed in Florida, WDW parks are only at 35% capacity, DL has been completely closed for almost a year (minus a few downtown Disney stores getting to open for maybe a month or 2), DL Paris keeps opening and then closing. They can’t just keep working on rides as they have in the past because they don’t have the same level of income coming in.

Downtown Disney has been completely open since the second week of July and now parts of DCA are open as well for shopping. The only places that are currently closed that were open during this time is certain dining locations due to the stay at home order.

 

[hertamaniac]

There is no reason they can't continue to work on the rides and have them ready to go once capacity can increase.

I don't get the sense they aren't working on the rides, but have reduced the resourcing/burn rate. I think they are being judicious and can "throttle-up" the completions to be in position when capacity increases.

 

[skeeter31]

Downtown Disney has been completely open since the second week of July and now parts of DCA are open as well for shopping. The only places that are currently closed that were open during this time is certain dining locations due to the stay at home order.

Thanks! I was getting the dining and shopping confused.

 

[BoatDriver]

Then why have capacity limits now?

Public perception and optics

 

[dina444444]

Thanks! I was getting the dining and shopping confused.

And the dinning that is closed only closed about 4 weeks ago, however it likely won’t be until late January or mid February when they will be able to reopen. Hospitalizations in LA and Orange County have finally started to lower in the last day or so (will be reported in today’s county numbers for LA), but we still don’t know the full affect of what people getting together for Christmas and NYE is going to have.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I have to admit I don't quite understand what Disney is doing. Or why. I have always been a Disney apologist that can see things from their POV but I don't on the new rides. There is no reason they can't continue to work on the rides and have them ready to go once capacity can increase. After a certain point the money argument doesn't make any sense. They are coming off looking mighty greedy if that is the case.

Trying to put myself in their shoes and guess what they are thinking:

Money aspect:
- They need to get back to a point of making money from the parks before they invest more $ into them
- Given this, there will be no new major capital expenditures for quite some time
- What is already in progress will get done, but they will want to spread out the opening of those things as much as they can - so delaying opening of things in progress
- If they are going to delay opening, then they will want to spread out the construction across as many fiscal quarters as they can so they can split up the cost

Attracting crowds:
- Still in reduced capacity now, probably at least for 1/2 (?) of 2021 - parks are largely filling OK (resorts/hotels, a different story), do don't need anything new/big right now, won't be able to increase attendance that much
- When parks can open fully, do they need a big new draw?:
a) already have pend up demand so people that have been holding off for whatever reason will come just to come
b) by that point parks are into Halloween and then Holidays which is a draw, and then the 50th anniversary that people will come for anyway
c) people that skipped 2020 likely have some new stuff to see anyway - many haven't seen MMRR and many haven't gotten on Rise. So there is already "new" stuff for them

Spreading crowds to parks:
- when crowds do come back, which will need the most help attracting people?
a) MK is MK and especially with the 50th stuff people will come
b) DHS has Galaxy's Edge and MMRR, the two newest big things already
c) AK has the next newest big thing in Pandora and just night time stuff was relatively new anyway. Plus nothing really had started work there, not about to break ground
d) EPCOT - this is where help is most needed and some work is already being done
- So you have Rat ready to go, plus the new entrance and whatever work is going to be done on the middle part of Future World (sorry, World Celebration), and at some point Harmonius. And Space 220 appears near ready to go, another draw

Anniversaries:
- obviously have WDW's 50th in 2021, then EPCOT's 40th in 2022, and the TWDC's 100th in 2023
- BUT, all of those dates are in October and rather than celebrate that date, celebrate the year, meaning, we celebrate WDW's 50th from Oct 1st 2021 to Sept 30th 2022 - not everything needs to be ready by day 1

So potential timeline:
- 2021: Get things "back to normal", see what that looks like, open Rat and Space 220 at some point in 1H, get Harmonius up in 2H, get the Star Wars Hotel open to bring in more $. Overall, plenty of "new" stuff for people that skipped 2020
- 2022: Tron is the big thing, as part of the WDW's 50th year long celebration, opens in 1H 2022
- 2023: Guardians is the big thing, as part of EPCOT's 40th year long celebration, opens in 1H 2023
- 2024: Splash Re-theme - big "statement" work for TWDC to make, fits part of it's 100th year long celebration
- 2025: SSE redo - next thing that needs done, not as major as brand new ride/land but pretty significant
- 2026: Something in Animal Kingdom?


Keep in mind this isn't what I *want* but how I could see it going and how they are thinking. I mean, best case scenario for something new "big" beyond what is already started is either the Splash retheme or the SSE redo ... and that is 2024/2025 at the earliest - so they need to spread out the existing new things between then and now

(OK, that got longer than I thought it would be)

 

[hertamaniac]

Trying to put myself in their shoes and guess what they are thinking:

Money aspect:
- They need to get back to a point of making money from the parks before they invest more $ into them
- Given this, there will be no new major capital expenditures for quite some time
- What is already in progress will get done, but they will want to spread out the opening of those things as much as they can - so delaying opening of things in progress
- If they are going to delay opening, then they will want to spread out the construction across as many fiscal quarters as they can so they can split up the cost

Attracting crowds:
- Still in reduced capacity now, probably at least for 1/2 (?) of 2021 - parks are largely filling OK (resorts/hotels, a different story), do don't need anything new/big right now, won't be able to increase attendance that much
- When parks can open fully, do they need a big new draw?:
a) already have pend up demand so people that have been holding off for whatever reason will come just to come
b) by that point parks are into Halloween and then Holidays which is a draw, and then the 50th anniversary that people will come for anyway
c) people that skipped 2020 likely have some new stuff to see anyway - many haven't seen MMRR and many haven't gotten on Rise. So there is already "new" stuff for them

Spreading crowds to parks:
- when crowds do come back, which will need the most help attracting people?
a) MK is MK and especially with the 50th stuff people will come
b) DHS has Galaxy's Edge and MMRR, the two newest big things already
c) AK has the next newest big thing in Pandora and just night time stuff was relatively new anyway. Plus nothing really had started work there, not about to break ground
d) EPCOT - this is where help is most needed and some work is already being done
- So you have Rat ready to go, plus the new entrance and whatever work is going to be done on the middle part of Future World (sorry, World Celebration), and at some point Harmonius.

Anniversaries:
- obviously have WDW's 50th in 2021, then EPCOT's 40th in 2022, and the TWDC's 100th in 2023
- BUT, all of those dates are in October and rather than celebrate that date, celebrate the year, meaning, we celebrate WDW's 50th from Oct 1st 2021 to Sept 30th 2022 - not everything needs to be ready by day 1

So potential timeline:
- 2021: Get things "back to normal", see what that looks like, open Rat at some point in 1H, get Harmonius up in 2H, get the Star Wars Hotel open to bring in more $. Overall, plenty of "new" stuff for people that skipped 2020
- 2022: Tron is the big thing, as part of the WDW's 50th year long celebration, opens in 1H 2022
- 2023: Guardians is the big thing, as part of EPCOT's 40th year long celebration, opens in 1H 2023
- 2024: Splash Re-theme - big "statement" work for TWDC to make, fits part of it's 100th year long celebration
- 2025: SSE redo - next thing that needs done, not as major as brand new ride/land but pretty significant
- 2026: Something in Animal Kingdom?


Keep in mind this isn't what I *want* but how I could see it going and how they are thinking. I mean, best case scenario for something new "big" beyond what is already started is either the Splash retheme or the SSE redo ... and that is 2024/2025 at the earliest - so they need to spread out the existing new things between then and now

(OK, that got longer than I thought it would be)

This is a solid projection/assessment. For me, I would add Space 220 on the EPCOT side as a way to attract guests (albeit at a small number inside).

 

[TheMaxRebo]

This is a solid projection/assessment. For me, I would add Space 220 on the EPCOT side as a way to attract guests (albeit at a small number inside).

good point, I updated the post to include that in the EPCOT 2021 stuff

 

[Farro]

This is a solid projection/assessment. For me, I would add Space 220 on the EPCOT side as a way to attract guests (albeit at a small number inside).

Yes, we are people who haven't been since 2017.

We haven't seen Toy Story Land, Galaxy's Edge, heck, we never even got to ride Frozen! So we definitely have a lot of new stuff to see.

 

[Mit88]

Public perception and optics

And by the time September comes, perception and optics will look different than they do now, just as they look different now than they did in July. There’s a very, very, very little chance that Disney doesn’t up their capacity by Oct 1st, and if they’re upping their capacity, so too will Universal, probably even before Disney does. These parks, from reports are not that far off from operating at average daily park attendance. I believe Epcot is even above theirs.

 

[samsteele]

Speculation that re-appearance of covered kiosk machines in high traffic area of Epcot may signal return to FP. 4 kiosks in a row.

In Adam the Woo's theDailyWoo vlog. Titled Park Hopping is Back at Disney World All 4 Parks in One Day. Date January 2, 2021 at 3:20 marker. Don't think I can link to his vlog per guidelines.

Calling it speculation as don't know that it rises to level of rumour.

Don't know what else the kiosks would be.