I have to admit I don't quite understand what Disney is doing. Or why. I have always been a Disney apologist that can see things from their POV but I don't on the new rides. There is no reason they can't continue to work on the rides and have them ready to go once capacity can increase. After a certain point the money argument doesn't make any sense. They are coming off looking mighty greedy if that is the case.
Trying to put myself in their shoes and guess what they are thinking:
Money aspect:
- They need to get back to a point of making money from the parks before they invest more $ into them
- Given this, there will be no new major capital expenditures for quite some time
- What is already in progress will get done, but they will want to spread out the opening of those things as much as they can - so delaying opening of things in progress
- If they are going to delay opening, then they will want to spread out the construction across as many fiscal quarters as they can so they can split up the cost
Attracting crowds:
- Still in reduced capacity now, probably at least for 1/2 (?) of 2021 - parks are largely filling OK (resorts/hotels, a different story), do don't need anything new/big right now, won't be able to increase attendance that much
- When parks can open fully, do they need a big new draw?:
a) already have pend up demand so people that have been holding off for whatever reason will come just to come
b) by that point parks are into Halloween and then Holidays which is a draw, and then the 50th anniversary that people will come for anyway
c) people that skipped 2020 likely have some new stuff to see anyway - many haven't seen MMRR and many haven't gotten on Rise. So there is already "new" stuff for them
Spreading crowds to parks:
- when crowds do come back, which will need the most help attracting people?
a) MK is MK and especially with the 50th stuff people will come
b) DHS has Galaxy's Edge and MMRR, the two newest big things already
c) AK has the next newest big thing in Pandora and just night time stuff was relatively new anyway. Plus nothing really had started work there, not about to break ground
d) EPCOT - this is where help is most needed and some work is already being done
- So you have Rat ready to go, plus the new entrance and whatever work is going to be done on the middle part of Future World (sorry, World Celebration), and at some point Harmonius. And Space 220 appears near ready to go, another draw
Anniversaries:
- obviously have WDW's 50th in 2021, then EPCOT's 40th in 2022, and the TWDC's 100th in 2023
- BUT, all of those dates are in October and rather than celebrate that date, celebrate the year, meaning, we celebrate WDW's 50th from Oct 1st 2021 to Sept 30th 2022 - not everything needs to be ready by day 1
So potential timeline:
- 2021: Get things "back to normal", see what that looks like, open Rat and Space 220 at some point in 1H, get Harmonius up in 2H, get the Star Wars Hotel open to bring in more $. Overall, plenty of "new" stuff for people that skipped 2020
- 2022: Tron is the big thing, as part of the WDW's 50th year long celebration, opens in 1H 2022
- 2023: Guardians is the big thing, as part of EPCOT's 40th year long celebration, opens in 1H 2023
- 2024: Splash Re-theme - big "statement" work for TWDC to make, fits part of it's 100th year long celebration
- 2025: SSE redo - next thing that needs done, not as major as brand new ride/land but pretty significant
- 2026: Something in Animal Kingdom?
Keep in mind this isn't what I *want* but how I could see it going and how they are thinking. I mean, best case scenario for something new "big" beyond what is already started is either the Splash retheme or the SSE redo ... and that is 2024/2025 at the earliest - so they need to spread out the existing new things between then and now
(OK, that got longer than I thought it would be)