Reflections: A Disney Lakeside Resort

[Lumpy1106]

There is an article on XXXX titled Four DVC resorts that might have been. It is really good. I can’t get it to link properly. Eagle Pines was the name of the one you are referring. The others were DVC West (by Epcot) , Newport Coast (in CA) and Fort Wilderness.

Yeah that site is banned here. Thanks for the tip though, I’ll check it out!

Newport Coast was eventually built by Marriott. I'm proud to say I worked on that project - It's too bad Disney didn't end up doing it. The place has a billion dollar view and looks great, but the interiors are not as nice as they should be. Note to Marriott - if you are going to try and save money, DO NOT cheap out on the ceiling fans! It is the first thing that the guests see when they wake up in the morning. The dishwashers are also REALLY loud too. I mean - how much does that save?

 

[NoTime42]

Newport Coast was eventually built by Marriott. I'm proud to say I worked on that project - It's too bad Disney didn't end up doing it. The place has a billion dollar view and looks great, but the interiors are not as nice as they should be. Note to Marriott - if you are going to try and save money, DO NOT cheap out on the ceiling fans! It is the first thing that the guests see when they wake up in the morning. The dishwashers are also REALLY loud too. I mean - how much does that save?

That’s cool you got to work on it!

I’m not certain about now, but it used to seem like the difference between a basic dishwasher and a really quiet one was about a $300 vs $800+ question. If you install 100 of them, that’s a $50,000 project difference.
And the expensive ones are a lot more expensive to repair. I believe the end of my previous dishwasher was an electronic circuit board that would have cost $250+ on Amazon or EBay (installed with my free labor)

 

[jade1]

I hope it eventually does go through. I really like the nature inspired architecture but can sympathize with the Ft Wilderness crew that it is close. Given the Frank Lloyd Wrigh”ness” of it one would hope it would blend seemlessly into the area. My only hope would be that one day they would take Discovery Island and reclaim it as a glamping island. That would be a lot of fun (only accessible via boat). Something like this:

View attachment 501707
Taken from: https://www.hexapolis.com/2017/02/20/tent-camping-luxury/

Cool place.

Although that teetering fire pit will all that lacquer.

 

[dlavender]

This is a point I used to kick around with LockedoutLogic back in the day.

If you get a measurable percentage of the faithful WDW visitors into a DVC what happens when the economy changes? Did Disney lock a bunch of people into every other year trips during a bad economy and does that conversely take away the consumer that filled the resort rooms during an economic downturn?

Then what happens if a bunch of DVC owners default in a major recession?

I think that already started to happen, which is why they started converting deluxe rooms into DVC rooms. They helped prop up deluxe pricing by reducing supply, which helped prop up DVC buy in cost.

What happens, though, to your point, when these DVC members start flooding point rental markets? Or conversely, start selling off? Disney surely can't ROFR them all. There wouldn't be a market to resell them direct. Would resort pricing finally turn the other way? It's fascinating to watch, even though I don't want any of it to happen as it would be bad economic times for most of us on a macro level if that's what happened.

 

[CarolynFH]

This is a point I used to kick around with LockedoutLogic back in the day.

If you get a measurable percentage of the faithful WDW visitors into a DVC what happens when the economy changes? Did Disney lock a bunch of people into every other year trips during a bad economy and does that conversely take away the consumer that filled the resort rooms during an economic downturn?

Then what happens if a bunch of DVC owners default in a major recession?

I think that already started to happen, which is why they started converting deluxe rooms into DVC rooms. They helped prop up deluxe pricing by reducing supply, which helped prop up DVC buy in cost.

What happens, though, to your point, when these DVC members start flooding point rental markets? Or conversely, start selling off? Disney surely can't ROFR them all. There wouldn't be a market to resell them direct. Would resort pricing finally turn the other way? It's fascinating to watch, even though I don't want any of it to happen as it would be bad economic times for most of us on a macro level if that's what happened.

If y'all aren't already aware of this thread, you might be interested. There is mention of what happened during the last recession. https://www.disboards.com/threads/where-do-you-think-dvc-resale-prices-are-headed.3797236/

 

[gharter]

Given the current financial situation Disney is in with the closure for the last few months, I would not be surprised to see Reflections postponed for 3-5 years.
If sales at Riviera take off, it could be built sooner. But, if Riviera sales continue as they have, I would be surprised to see them start on a new resort until more of the current resort is sold.

 

[Jacq7414]

Given the current financial situation Disney is in with the closure for the last few months, I would not be surprised to see Reflections postponed for 3-5 years.
If sales at Riviera take off, it could be built sooner. But, if Riviera sales continue as they have, I would be surprised to see them start on a new resort until more of the current resort is sold.

Is there a reason why riviera isn’t selling well?

 

[Tiki Birdland]

Is there a reason why riviera isn’t selling well?

Likely because of the restrictions of not having the same benefits of the other resorts. I think Disney really made a mistake on how they did this.

 

[CastAStone]

Is there a reason why riviera isn’t selling well?

Copper Creek is still actively being sold so it's hard to compare Riviera sales when it's being sold alongside another resort to CCV sales last year when it was the only thing being sold.

 

[gharter]

From what I've seen posted, it sounds like its selling, just not as fast as previous resorts.
Could be many reasons.
Some love the theme, others not so much.
Its the first Deluxe resort that sits really close to a moderate, so you can see Caribbean Beach from it.
For those looking ahead, the resale restrictions may be a big part. If you buy Riviera as resale, you cannot use those points anywhere else, even at 7 months.

 

[Tiki Birdland]

From what I've seen posted, it sounds like its selling, just not as fast as previous resorts.
Could be many reasons.
Some love the theme, others not so much.
Its the first Deluxe resort that sits really close to a moderate, so you can see Caribbean Beach from it.
For those looking ahead, the resale restrictions may be a big part. If you buy Riviera as resale, you cannot use those points anywhere else, even at 7 months.

More on he restrictions:
Riviera is the first DVC resort to have ‘resale restrictions’ built into the contract. Once resold, the points at Riviera can only be used at that resort. The general consensus has been that this will have a negative impact on the resale value of Riviera since your resort options for those points will be so limited.

 

[Jacq7414]

More on he restrictions:
Riviera is the first DVC resort to have ‘resale restrictions’ built into the contract. Once resold, the points at Riviera can only be used at that resort. The general consensus has been that this will have a negative impact on the resale value of Riviera since your resort options for those points will be so limited.

Ah yes that actually makes sense. Thanks

 

[Eric Smith]

Is there a reason why riviera isn’t selling well?

I think it's the resale restrictions. Based on those, most people likely speculate that resale value will be lower for a Riviera contract than other contracts. It's nice to be fairly confident that if you have to ditch the 50 year contract at some point due to financial issues that you could make a significant part of your initial buy in back.

 

[NoTime42]

Unlike online forums that tend to skew towards the resale market, I don’t think resale restrictions are a major factor to the typical new contract DVC buyer. I’d think Riviera’s location and Skyliner newness is a greater “issue”. The past dozen years, DVC has been selling the MK resorts...locations with transportation guests knew and loved, and Riviera isn’t that.
It’s possible Riviera will be gaining more fans since Topolino is one 2 character dining experiences that will be open initially.

 

[RivShore]

Is there a reason why riviera isn’t selling well?

That it's not selling well is debatable, at best. This post from the Riviera Sales thread shows that DVC is probably more than happy with the sales numbers - pre-Covid anyway...

The idea that Riviera sales are soft is a complete misinterpretation of the data. Looking at the the last three resorts over the first 8 months of sales for each resort the data says this:

Poly sold 539,108 points in eight months
Copper Creek sold 445,376 points in eight months
Riviera sold 787,623 points in eight months

Sales of Riviera were 46% better than Poly and 56% better than copper creek over the first eight months.

The resale restrictions are not hurting. Sales are robust and outperforming the last two offerings by massive amounts.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Like the rest of WDW, all the DVC sales team was furloughed in March. So there has been zero active selling of this resort in over 3 months. They started selling points 6 months prior to opening the resort, so initial sales were timid. Once the resort opened the sales picked up, with Feb and March actually being robust. So, with Covid it is really unfair to state that the project has not sold well. The truth is, will have to wait and see how the points move once everything opens up and there are parks filled with vactioners to sell to.

 

[taaren]

From what I've seen posted, it sounds like its selling, just not as fast as previous resorts.
Could be many reasons.
Some love the theme, others not so much.
Its the first Deluxe resort that sits really close to a moderate, so you can see Caribbean Beach from it.
For those looking ahead, the resale restrictions may be a big part. If you buy Riviera as resale, you cannot use those points anywhere else, even at 7 months.

I'm guessing the resale restrictions might have an impact on add-on sales, or sales to people who are already members, but given that most of the sales are to first-time owners who don't know that a resale market exists those aren't going to be affected as much.

Would love to see the breakdown in points sales to existing owners for CCV vs Riv vs points sales to non-owners of Copper Creek vs Riv (or any previous resorts). Not sure if there's a way to grab that data.

 

[RivShore]

I'm guessing the resale restrictions might have an impact on add-on sales, or sales to people who are already members, but given that most of the sales are to first-time owners who don't know that a resale market exists those aren't going to be affected as much.

Would love to see the breakdown in points sales to existing owners for CCV vs Riv vs points sales to non-owners of Copper Creek vs Riv (or any previous resorts). Not sure if there's a way to grab that data.

That would be an interesting data point.

i<3riviera has data, data, and more data on DVC sales, maybe he can pull that together. He just posted June sales here:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/direct-dvc-sales-statistics.3806398/#post-62092008

 

[rideswithchrist]

I still think they should just expand the Fort Wilderness campsites around in that area, adding in some larger, water front sites (that will still bring in $200+ per night), and upgrade the cabins with a loop on that side. Keep the lazy river- scratch the gigantic parking lot and bring back Mickey's BBQ. They can even relocate the campfire sing along near the lake and really make Fort Wilderness an amazing destination resort campground. (I mean, it already is) More and more people are buying campers because of COVID, so those same people will start looking into Fort Wilderness, which is usually sold out year 'round.

 

[CastAStone]

According to the permit, this is specifically for reflections. It was filed Tuesday. Others have said the project is canceled and noted it has been reseeded with new grass seed.