The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[DduzDis]

What do we suppose the room categories and points charts might look like for Poly2 now that we 'think' it will be same association?

 

[intamin]

What do we suppose the room categories and points charts might look like for Poly2 now that we 'think' it will be same association?

They will be insane lol. Likely higher than VGFs points charts, at the level of VGF at best.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

They will be insane lol. Likely higher than VGFs points charts, at the level of VGF at best.

Yeah I think you’re definitely right. I imagine that’s what they’re hoping will be the thing that makes people buy direct because they’ll ultimately need way more points to stay there then resale gives us access to. Maybe that’s why they’ve made it the same association, giving us a small consolation when they’re about to upset everyone with their ridiculous point charts.

 

[MyDogTink]

I’m interested to see point chart for 1 BR which is a bit different since they will have 2 full bathrooms. I believe this category will be similar to Kidani, BLT and VDH.

 

[jakecaputo]

They will be insane lol. Likely higher than VGFs points charts, at the level of VGF at best.

The studios are priced pretty dead on the same as VGF. I'd anticipate a pretty similar point chart.

 

[GoingSince1990]

Isn't the natural next step speculating about opening pricing? We can also speculate about if/when ROFR will start for PVB existing sales.

I'll start! In my opinion, if they were trying to sell higher than RIV, it would have made more sense to start a new association (can you really sell new at $200 after incentives if gently used is readily available around $150? It didn't work with VGF!) so I think we will see a sticker price in the 200s, but with incentives that bring it down lower than the best rate offered at VDH. I don't think we will see the $170s (before or after MB) anytime soon unless the economy craters... so if I had to guess, maybe $185 after a discount for Magical Beginnings?

As for ROFR, if prices naturally nudge up to the $150s, I could see Disney being tempted to support it around that level so that the gap between new and gently used pushes people towards the direct points.

The number of resale points will be a tiny, tiny percentage of the millions of direct points, and the direct price will drive the resale price, not the other way around. If direct is (for example) $195 after incentives, I would expect resale to be in the $170s or so, a smallish discount reflecting that all resale buyers are missing out on compared to direct is the ability to book at RIV and VDH, as well as the blue card privileges.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

The number of resale points will be a tiny, tiny percentage of the millions of direct points, and the direct price will drive the resale price, not the other way around.

Does anyone know how many resale points are currently being sold, not including Riviera? Because they’re all usable at the tower. I’d assume unless you really want to guarantee your stay at the tower it just makes sense to take your chances at 7mos then buy direct, at least for the foreseeable future.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I’m interested to see point chart for 1 BR which is a bit different since they will have 2 full bathrooms. I believe this category will be similar to Kidani, BLT and VDH.

I predict one-bedrooms at Poly will be hard to book for non-Poly owners.

 

[Mikey15]

Does anyone know how many resale points are currently being sold, not including Riviera? Because they’re all usable at the tower. I’d assume unless you really want to guarantee your stay at the tower it just makes sense to take your chances at 7mos then buy direct, at least for the foreseeable future.

I’m not sure if your exact question is “how many are currently on the market?” but I believe someone recently added up some listings and it wasn’t much.

That being said, even if there are 4,000,000 points at the new tower, there’s an existing 4,000,000 points of PVB which will get the priority booking window even if not many of the new points have sold yet. Then, at 7mo, you have ~40,000,000 other points in the system with equal access to go for tower rooms.

I don’t foresee good 7mo availability to start. Riv already doesn’t have great 7mo availability, and it’s only ~60% sold out, and new resale owners of O14 resorts since ~2019 can’t even book it at 7mo. Since PVB already has owners of 4,000,000 points who will have access to tower priority booking right out the gate, and plenty of owners of the 14,000,000 SSR points or 7,000,000 OKW points will be ready to go at 7mo to try the new Poly tower, you’re rolling the dice to be hitting Refresh at the same time as them.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I’m not sure if your exact question is “how many are currently on the market?” but I believe someone recently added up some listings and it wasn’t much.

That being said, even if there are 4,000,000 points at the new tower, there’s an existing 4,000,000 points of PVB which will get the priority booking window even if not many of the new points have sold yet. Then, at 7mo, you have ~40,000,000 other points in the system with equal access to go for tower rooms.

I don’t foresee good 7mo availability to start. Riv already doesn’t have great 7mo availability, and it’s only ~60% sold out, and new resale owners of O14 resorts since ~2019 can’t even book it at 7mo. Since PVB already has owners of 4,000,000 points who will have access to tower priority booking right out the gate, and plenty of owners of the 14,000,000 SSR points or 7,000,000 OKW points will be ready to go at 7mo to try the new Poly tower, you’re rolling the dice to be hitting Refresh at the same time as them.

Yep those are the numbers I was looking for, thanks. And that’s fair enough but that’s why I said unless you really want to stay at the tower just wind it like we all do for our non-home resort 7mos moves. But I guess that’ll also depend on how agressive their initial incentives are!

 

[Cyberc1978]

It makes sense for Disney because when the tower first opens cash bookings will be hot, so you can imagine why they might be happy to buyback the first UY, especially if it gives them juicy sales numbers.

They don't need to buy anything back to rent the tower rooms. As long as the rooms haven't been declared Disney can rent them for cash.

 

[Cyberc1978]

The number of resale points will be a tiny, tiny percentage of the millions of direct points, and the direct price will drive the resale price, not the other way around. If direct is (for example) $195 after incentives, I would expect resale to be in the $170s or so, a smallish discount reflecting that all resale buyers are missing out on compared to direct is the ability to book at RIV and VDH, as well as the blue card privileges.

The spread between resale and direct will definitely be more than $195 vs $170.

IF you should be right, no one would buy resale not for saving $20. I guesstimate a larger spread, and that Poly resale pricing will decrease, but that is still pending the direct pricing.

 

[cookc123]

I predict one-bedrooms at Poly will be hard to book for non-Poly owners.

Probably for the first few years for sure. It will level out eventually.

 

[jakecaputo]

The spread between resale and direct will definitely be more than $195 vs $170.

IF you should be right, no one would buy resale not for saving $20. I guesstimate a larger spread, and that Poly resale pricing will decrease, but that is still pending the direct pricing.

I don't know about "no one". Once you're already blue card, there's much less incentive to buy more points direct.

 

[cookc123]

The spread between resale and direct will definitely be more than $195 vs $170.

IF you should be right, no one would buy resale not for saving $20. I guesstimate a larger spread, and that Poly resale pricing will decrease, but that is still pending the direct pricing.

I agree, I see a price difference small at first maybe $20 but in a month of two the difference will grow to maybe around$35-40ish

 

[Cyberc1978]

I don't know about "no one". Once you're already blue card, there's much less incentive to buy more points direct.

Direct points can book any current and future restricted resorts. Probably worth $20 plus you will get all current and future points. You don’t necessarily get that with a resale.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I predict one-bedrooms at Poly will be hard to book for non-Poly owners.

Probably for the first few years for sure. It will level out eventually.

Why should people be more eager to book 1br’s at Poly than at BwV, BLT or any other resort?

Except for the 1st year it will be just as available as everywhere else.

 

[TinkB278]

Direct points can book any current and future restricted resorts. Probably worth $20 plus you will get all current and future points. You don’t necessarily get that with a resale.

Yes but at this point, they hardly seem to care about adding any “future resorts” to that list. With poly tower allegedly going to the bookable with resale category, the “future resort” argument seems to carry very little value at this point.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

FW Cabins in 2024.

 

[cookc123]

Yes but at this point, they hardly seem to care about adding any “future resorts” to that list. With poly tower allegedly going to the bookable with resale category, the “future resort” argument seems to carry very little value at this point.

I agree, that's why I think the restrictions go away eventually. It was an experiment to see if they could force more direct DVC sales which I think bit them in the butt a bit.