To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[DopeyBadger]

I'm going to go with 1:31:31, because I have no idea. (Hello! I have been lurking)

out of lurkdom!

 

[SarahDisney]

I'm gonna go with 1:20:59.
Because that would qualify you for entry into the 2019 NYC marathon. And you'd be several waves ahead of me, so you can go back to your hotel to shower and have time to come back and see me finish.
So really, my guess is purely selfish

 

[Dis5150]

I am going to go with 1:33:15

 

[DopeyBadger]

I'm gonna go with 1:20:59.
Because that would qualify you for entry into the 2019 NYC marathon. And you'd be several waves ahead of me, so you can go back to your hotel to shower and have time to come back and see me finish.
So really, my guess is purely selfish

Don't let anyone ever tell you you're not an optimist. We will see where I'm at, but that's the hope for the December 2018 HM. But it's going to take a lot of work to get there. It's on the cusp of what I estimate to be my maximal progress.

 

[SarahDisney]

Don't let anyone ever tell you you're not an optimist. We will see where I'm at, but that's the hope for the December 2018 HM. But it's going to take a lot of work to get there. It's on the cusp of what I estimate to be my maximal progress.

Well I know you're willing to put in the work. You just have to hope the progress comes with the work.
But I'm sticking with my prediction . Maybe you'll surprise yourself.

 

[run.minnie.miles]

These are always so fun

1:31:51

 

[Jules76126]

Prediction: 1:30

 

[sylkai]

1:29:30.

 

[garneska]

1:35:42

 

[canglim52]

2018 Hot2Trot HM Prediction Contest!

Alright posters and lurkers, let's play a prediction game! It's one of my favorite things to do pre-race. It's also something I do with everyone else on their training plans. Go through the process on deciding race day goals and pacing strategies all based around a possible finish time. I want to hear from everyone. I'd like to hear your prediction for my upcoming Hot2Trot HM on June 16th. Please don't be concerned that your time prediction will have much of an impact on my chances. I could run really well, or I could crash and burn. Anything is possible. I'll be running this race blind, as is my preference, so I'll have no idea how I'm doing until the race has concluded. Here are some rules:

1) Predictions must be made after this post either in this journal, to me verbally, or on my Strava account.
2) Only one prediction per person.
3) Predictions must be in by Tuesday, June 12th end of day (Central time zone).
4) Winner will be determined by whomever is closest to the final official race time (so not Garmin 13.11 mile time). No "Price is Right" rules, which means you can go over/under on the time prediction and still win. Closest is closest.
5) Predictions can be as close as you like to another person’s guess. So, if someone says 1:45:00, you can guess 1:45:01
6) A prediction must be in time. Thus, a guess of "you'll do your best" or something similar is appreciated but not valid.
7) The tie-breaker will be the person who guessed first. So, if the two closest predictions are 10 seconds off the real time (one person 10 seconds high and the other 10 seconds low), then the person who guessed first is determined to be the winner.
8) In the event I don't finish, the race is cancelled, or I don't have an official time, then there will be no winner.
9) The winner receives a mystery item via email.

I think that covers everything. I am free to update these rules if something comes up during the prediction process. I will add any amended rules below this sentence with a time stamp as to when the rules were updated. Everyone is welcome to play! Remember it's just a friendly game amongst friends.

Some facts to help you determine my time:

None! I decided to be extra tricky this time. So I'm not providing any data unprompted. Although if you've got questions about the course, my training thus far, current conditioning, etc, then I'll certainly answer it. But honestly, I'm not even sure myself what to expect from this race. So we'll all be guessing fairly blind on this one.

Current Predictions

1:20:59 - @SarahDisney
1:29:06 - @MissLiss279
1:31:13 - @KSellers88
1:31:31 - @YawningDodo
1:33:15 - @Dis5150

Alright, that's all I've got. So what do you think?

1:28:52!

 

[jennamfeo]

WOO. Lots of people thinking you are gonna PR this race. I just did my extensive research on your Strava profile. Based on what I know about how you build your plans and what the paces mean, this is my educated guess.
You are coming off an injury. You are using this race as a "current fitness assessment". So my guess is:
1:33:57

 

[DopeyBadger]

WOO. Lots of people thinking you are gonna PR this race. I just did my extensive research on your Strava profile. Based on what I know about how you build your plans and what the paces mean, this is my educated guess.
You are coming off an injury. You are using this race as a "current fitness assessment". So my guess is:
1:33:57

Some data digging, I like it.

 

[jennamfeo]

Some data digging, I like it.

 

[Sleepless Knight]

I was going to come up with a more numbers based version of he's gone into plaid which was my prediction for Dopey since apparently, very descriptive guesses colorful guesses that reference the movie Spaceballs don't actually count. So instead I came up with another guess that referenced a different famous movie from the 1980s, but then decided that since you're coming off of injury it was too fast too soon. So you'll have to wait for movie prediction time number 2 until you're fully healthy again.

So I'll go with 1:35:29 because why not?

 

[DopeyBadger]

With 9 days to go...



Predicted Weather on this date for Hot2Trot HM morning
6/7/18 - T+D of 122, 56% chance of rain, cloudy, and light 8mph SSE wind
6/8/18 - T+D of 113, 24% chance of rain, 43% cloudy, and light 6 mph E wind
6/9/18 -
6/10/18 -
6/11/18 -
6/12/18 -
6/13/18 -
6/14/18 -
6/15/18 -

FANTASTIC T+D. I would be ecstatic to get that.

 

[FFigawi]

1:34:12

 

[michigandergirl]

1:32:43

Good luck!!!

 

[sourire]

Going with 1:33:12!

(Since my last half ended in 12 seconds, I decided to give you 12 seconds too.)

 

[mrsg00fy]

I’m going with 1:28:30. I think you’ll break that 90 minute threshold this time out.

 

[TeeterTots]

1:29:26