DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
So true. And I'm hoping me not dodging it completely the last few weeks will lead to a slight advantage. We shall see. But... ugh is right...
To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)
- Thread starter DopeyBadger
- Start date
So true. And I'm hoping me not dodging it completely the last few weeks will lead to a slight advantage. We shall see. But... ugh is right...
FredtheDuck
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 2, 2017
1:30:58
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
Sneaking in before the cutoff!
FredtheDuck
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 2, 2017
Story of my life right now.
dis_or_dat
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2016
I'm terrible at this. So no idea - I just know you'll be fast! Good luck!
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
With 4 days to go...
Problems uploading...
Predicted Weather on this date for Hot2Trot HM morning
6/7/18 - T+D of 122, 56% chance of rain, cloudy, and light 8mph SSE wind
6/8/18 - T+D of 113, 24% chance of rain, 43% cloudy, and light 6 mph E wind
6/9/18 - T+D of 119, 38% change of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 4 mph SE wind
6/10/18 - T+D of 141 (!?), 22% chance of rain, 55% cloudy, and light 6 mph S wind
6/11/18 - T+D of 136, 36% chance of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSE wind
6/12/18 - T+D of 139, 24% chance of rain, 62% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSW wind
6/13/18 - T+D of 145, 12% chance of rain, 49% cloudy, and moderate 9 mph SSW wind
6/14/18 -
6/15/18 -
I think the weather is going the wrong way...
Problems uploading...
Predicted Weather on this date for Hot2Trot HM morning
6/7/18 - T+D of 122, 56% chance of rain, cloudy, and light 8mph SSE wind
6/8/18 - T+D of 113, 24% chance of rain, 43% cloudy, and light 6 mph E wind
6/9/18 - T+D of 119, 38% change of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 4 mph SE wind
6/10/18 - T+D of 141 (!?), 22% chance of rain, 55% cloudy, and light 6 mph S wind
6/11/18 - T+D of 136, 36% chance of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSE wind
6/12/18 - T+D of 139, 24% chance of rain, 62% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSW wind
6/13/18 - T+D of 145, 12% chance of rain, 49% cloudy, and moderate 9 mph SSW wind
6/14/18 -
6/15/18 -
I think the weather is going the wrong way...
canglim52
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2016
I’m assuming HAT training is in full effect?
*DisneyDreamer
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jan 16, 2007
Ugh, the weather is definitely not looking ideal this weekend.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
With 3 days to go...
Predicted Weather on this date for Hot2Trot HM morning
6/7/18 - T+D of 122, 56% chance of rain, cloudy, and light 8mph SSE wind
6/8/18 - T+D of 113, 24% chance of rain, 43% cloudy, and light 6 mph E wind
6/9/18 - T+D of 119, 38% change of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 4 mph SE wind
6/10/18 - T+D of 141 (!?), 22% chance of rain, 55% cloudy, and light 6 mph S wind
6/11/18 - T+D of 136, 36% chance of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSE wind
6/12/18 - T+D of 139, 24% chance of rain, 62% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSW wind
6/13/18 - T+D of 145, 12% chance of rain, 49% cloudy, and moderate 9 mph SSW wind
6/14/18 - T+D of 146, 7% chance of rain, 27% cloudy, and moderate 9 mph SSW wind
6/15/18 -
Predicted Weather on this date for Hot2Trot HM morning
6/7/18 - T+D of 122, 56% chance of rain, cloudy, and light 8mph SSE wind
6/8/18 - T+D of 113, 24% chance of rain, 43% cloudy, and light 6 mph E wind
6/9/18 - T+D of 119, 38% change of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 4 mph SE wind
6/10/18 - T+D of 141 (!?), 22% chance of rain, 55% cloudy, and light 6 mph S wind
6/11/18 - T+D of 136, 36% chance of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSE wind
6/12/18 - T+D of 139, 24% chance of rain, 62% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSW wind
6/13/18 - T+D of 145, 12% chance of rain, 49% cloudy, and moderate 9 mph SSW wind
6/14/18 - T+D of 146, 7% chance of rain, 27% cloudy, and moderate 9 mph SSW wind
6/15/18 -
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
Realistically not enough time. I've only got one more run today (3 miles) and really needs about 10 workouts or 14 days. And it only became evident a few days ago. I'll manage. Keeping everything in perspective.
Agreed! I think this will easily be my hottest race to date.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
G had her big web commercial/youtube video promotion for the new toy yesterday. Much harder experience when you've got a working toy that can do soooo many things. Of course, a 4 year old goes crazy with all the different functions and has a hard time listening. A long 6 hour day for everyone, but I'm hopeful they got the stills and video they were looking for. As for the toy, it's super impressive. Never seen anything quite like it. Should come out in September.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
2018 Hot2Trot HM Race Strategy and Prediction
Emphasis on the HOT this year in the Hot2Trot. A blazing T+D of 145 is predicted for race morning and the T+D is predicted to get close to 170 later in the day. Just an unfortunate insane heat wave rolling through. But regardless, we've got a race to dominate and I'm going to do my best on that day regardless of the conditions.
The race starts at 7:00am. So I plan to get up around 4:15am and have my normal pre-run breakfast (Bagel + PB + Honey and a Banana) around 4:30am. I'll also drink about 20oz of water and this will be my last drink until right before the race starts. I think we'll head over to the race at about 6:15am (just about a mile away). I'll get out, stretch, use the bathroom, and then head back to the car. My goal is to stay in the air conditioned car for as long as possible. Turn up the A/C, puts some ice on my body and do my best to lower my core temperature as safely as possible to prepare myself for the heat outside. I'm also going to be wearing my GORE super light singlet that only weighs 70g (it's like paper thin, but super absorbent). I won't wear that in the car, but rather have it sitting on one of the vents to help make it super cold as well.
At about 6:45am (15 min prior to start), I'll have my Maurten 320 drink mix with 80g carbs in 17oz water. I've practiced this twice before and neither time have I had to use the restroom during that 15 min interlude. I'll then start chewing 100mg of RunGum as I've found it activates for me after about 7-10 minutes of use. I'll have Steph/Mom waiting near the start line to let me know when others start lining up and then at the last moment will make my way to the start. No WU other than the stretching prior to this race as the T+D is much too hot and I'm trying to conserve my core body temp increase for the race itself. It just means I need to be conservative at the start and hopefully around M Tempo/LR effort for the first 5-10 minutes. While I'd prefer to run hands-free, I'm going to bring one of my broken Nathan 10oz water bottles that will be filled with ice. As the race progresses, it should start to melt into cold water so I'll have something to drink and pour on myself for the first few miles. I'll also douse myself in cold cold water right at the start as to keep myself primed for staying cool. Then, we're off.
Based on the cursory view of other runners, I'm anticipating a few runners, but not many will start off faster than me. I'll take a head count and move from there. The goal is to run blind and run conservative. I'd rather pick up the pace at the end because I went too slow in the beginning. I want to be the Pac-Man and not the ghost. The goal is a Top 2. Based on the conditions, I'm thinking the one who has the most restraint in the beginning is the likeliest one to come out ahead. The beginning of the race is mostly flat. It's run on crushed gravel/dirt for the first 6 miles. Since it hasn't rained recently it should be a nice surface to run on. Head up, eyes up, controlled breathing, and always smiling. The hairpin between miles 4-6 will serve as a great place to take another head count I find out where I'm at relatively. It's around mile 4 that'll stick in my head that G will be doing her race. G and Steph will be doing the 1k, and while I would have loved to participate it falls right in the middle of the HM race. But thoughts of G running, smiling, and enjoying herself will be in my mind. Right after the mid-point and the timing mat comes the big hill of the course just around mile 7. I'm going to take this super conservatively and not power up it. The goal is to conserve conserve conserve. But not too long after that is when the race really starts. At about mile 8 is when I'll start to crank the wrench and start to chase the ghosts. I'll pull out my 100mg RunGum and prepare for the test ahead. I'm anticipating maybe 4-5 runners at this point to be around or in front of me. The goal will be to chase them down with all that conserved energy. And then, comes the sprint to the finish down main street.
There are 6 aid stations. My goal is to take at least 2 cups to drink and 1 cup to pour at all 6 stations. Which means I might need to be slowing/stopping. I figure towards the end of the race it will be easier to do so because I'll have put a gap between myself and the other runners. Hence the water bottle at the beginning of the race. In addition, I'm bringing a broken one so that if I decide to toss it mid-race it's no issue to me since it doesn't work anyways (several of the Nathan bottles developed a small hole on the side).
Prediction
Not an easy one for me to nail down. The goal was to break 90 min, but truthfully that would be a monumental task in these conditions even if I were at full capacity. I've had a few runs feel like "I was back", but moreso been about 15 seconds per mile slower than last December. I went back and evaluated the runs from the last cycle. Unfortunately, things aren't uploading right now to the DIS. Suffice to say, I've had T+D range from 103 to 149 on hard runs. I took the unadjusted pace that was actually run on those days and figured out what the relative HM pace would have been based on the race equivalency calculator. When I adjusted the paces backwards to an "adjusted baseline" T pace, it was fairly consistent across the board at 6:39, 6:23, 6:52, 6:53, 6:38, 6:45, 6:39, 6:46, 6:23. So some suggesting faster pacing (6:23s) and others suggesting slower pacing (6:46-6:53). The average was a 6:40 (which is actually exactly where I thought I was at +15 seconds from December since that pace was a 6:25). I then adjusted that pace for a T+D of 145 and for HM pace to get a range of 6:45-7:03 HM pace. I then looked at the one run done at T+D of 149 which was on 5/30/18. It was the 7 easy + 3 T + 5 min easy + 1.5 T + 5 min easy + 1 T + 1 mile easy run. Not an easy run by any means and I did have to take a few extra breaks. The average T pace was 7:04 which would be a HM pace of 7:13. So that gives me a realistic range of 6:45 to 7:13 for HM pace. That would be a 1:28:24 to 1:34:35. Not surprisingly to me, of the 26 guesses made in the prediction game, 23 fall within this window. So you guys seem to cover the bases quite well. Personally, I see this as being a bit slower of a race because of the conditions. Don't get me wrong. I'm motivated. I'm coming in well rested. And I'm going to do my best. So we shall see. I'll take the over at 1:35:43.
Current Predictions
1:20:59 - @SarahDisney
1:28:30 - @mrsg00fy
1:28:52 - @canglim52
1:28:58 - @lhermiston
1:29:06 - @MissLiss279
1:29:26 - @TeeterTots
1:29:30 - @sylkai
1:29:58 - @pixarmom
1:30:00 - @Jules76126
1:30:15 - @rteetz
1:30:45 - @SarahDisney
1:30:58 - @FredtheDuck
1:31:13 - @KSellers88
1:31:31 - @YawningDodo
1:31:51 - @PCFriar80
1:31:51 - @run.minnie.miles
1:32:27 - @steph0808
1:32:32 - @Kerry1957
1:32:43 - @michigandergirl
1:33:00 - @bovie
1:33:12 - @sourire
1:33:15 - @Dis5150
1:33:57 - @jennamfeo
1:34:12 - @FFigawi
1:35:29 - @Sleepless Knight
1:35:42 - @garneska
1:35:43 - @DopeyBadger
The goal - Get a Top 2 placement and a 1st in AG.
Emphasis on the HOT this year in the Hot2Trot. A blazing T+D of 145 is predicted for race morning and the T+D is predicted to get close to 170 later in the day. Just an unfortunate insane heat wave rolling through. But regardless, we've got a race to dominate and I'm going to do my best on that day regardless of the conditions.
The race starts at 7:00am. So I plan to get up around 4:15am and have my normal pre-run breakfast (Bagel + PB + Honey and a Banana) around 4:30am. I'll also drink about 20oz of water and this will be my last drink until right before the race starts. I think we'll head over to the race at about 6:15am (just about a mile away). I'll get out, stretch, use the bathroom, and then head back to the car. My goal is to stay in the air conditioned car for as long as possible. Turn up the A/C, puts some ice on my body and do my best to lower my core temperature as safely as possible to prepare myself for the heat outside. I'm also going to be wearing my GORE super light singlet that only weighs 70g (it's like paper thin, but super absorbent). I won't wear that in the car, but rather have it sitting on one of the vents to help make it super cold as well.
At about 6:45am (15 min prior to start), I'll have my Maurten 320 drink mix with 80g carbs in 17oz water. I've practiced this twice before and neither time have I had to use the restroom during that 15 min interlude. I'll then start chewing 100mg of RunGum as I've found it activates for me after about 7-10 minutes of use. I'll have Steph/Mom waiting near the start line to let me know when others start lining up and then at the last moment will make my way to the start. No WU other than the stretching prior to this race as the T+D is much too hot and I'm trying to conserve my core body temp increase for the race itself. It just means I need to be conservative at the start and hopefully around M Tempo/LR effort for the first 5-10 minutes. While I'd prefer to run hands-free, I'm going to bring one of my broken Nathan 10oz water bottles that will be filled with ice. As the race progresses, it should start to melt into cold water so I'll have something to drink and pour on myself for the first few miles. I'll also douse myself in cold cold water right at the start as to keep myself primed for staying cool. Then, we're off.
Based on the cursory view of other runners, I'm anticipating a few runners, but not many will start off faster than me. I'll take a head count and move from there. The goal is to run blind and run conservative. I'd rather pick up the pace at the end because I went too slow in the beginning. I want to be the Pac-Man and not the ghost. The goal is a Top 2. Based on the conditions, I'm thinking the one who has the most restraint in the beginning is the likeliest one to come out ahead. The beginning of the race is mostly flat. It's run on crushed gravel/dirt for the first 6 miles. Since it hasn't rained recently it should be a nice surface to run on. Head up, eyes up, controlled breathing, and always smiling. The hairpin between miles 4-6 will serve as a great place to take another head count I find out where I'm at relatively. It's around mile 4 that'll stick in my head that G will be doing her race. G and Steph will be doing the 1k, and while I would have loved to participate it falls right in the middle of the HM race. But thoughts of G running, smiling, and enjoying herself will be in my mind. Right after the mid-point and the timing mat comes the big hill of the course just around mile 7. I'm going to take this super conservatively and not power up it. The goal is to conserve conserve conserve. But not too long after that is when the race really starts. At about mile 8 is when I'll start to crank the wrench and start to chase the ghosts. I'll pull out my 100mg RunGum and prepare for the test ahead. I'm anticipating maybe 4-5 runners at this point to be around or in front of me. The goal will be to chase them down with all that conserved energy. And then, comes the sprint to the finish down main street.
There are 6 aid stations. My goal is to take at least 2 cups to drink and 1 cup to pour at all 6 stations. Which means I might need to be slowing/stopping. I figure towards the end of the race it will be easier to do so because I'll have put a gap between myself and the other runners. Hence the water bottle at the beginning of the race. In addition, I'm bringing a broken one so that if I decide to toss it mid-race it's no issue to me since it doesn't work anyways (several of the Nathan bottles developed a small hole on the side).
Prediction
Not an easy one for me to nail down. The goal was to break 90 min, but truthfully that would be a monumental task in these conditions even if I were at full capacity. I've had a few runs feel like "I was back", but moreso been about 15 seconds per mile slower than last December. I went back and evaluated the runs from the last cycle. Unfortunately, things aren't uploading right now to the DIS. Suffice to say, I've had T+D range from 103 to 149 on hard runs. I took the unadjusted pace that was actually run on those days and figured out what the relative HM pace would have been based on the race equivalency calculator. When I adjusted the paces backwards to an "adjusted baseline" T pace, it was fairly consistent across the board at 6:39, 6:23, 6:52, 6:53, 6:38, 6:45, 6:39, 6:46, 6:23. So some suggesting faster pacing (6:23s) and others suggesting slower pacing (6:46-6:53). The average was a 6:40 (which is actually exactly where I thought I was at +15 seconds from December since that pace was a 6:25). I then adjusted that pace for a T+D of 145 and for HM pace to get a range of 6:45-7:03 HM pace. I then looked at the one run done at T+D of 149 which was on 5/30/18. It was the 7 easy + 3 T + 5 min easy + 1.5 T + 5 min easy + 1 T + 1 mile easy run. Not an easy run by any means and I did have to take a few extra breaks. The average T pace was 7:04 which would be a HM pace of 7:13. So that gives me a realistic range of 6:45 to 7:13 for HM pace. That would be a 1:28:24 to 1:34:35. Not surprisingly to me, of the 26 guesses made in the prediction game, 23 fall within this window. So you guys seem to cover the bases quite well. Personally, I see this as being a bit slower of a race because of the conditions. Don't get me wrong. I'm motivated. I'm coming in well rested. And I'm going to do my best. So we shall see. I'll take the over at 1:35:43.
Current Predictions
1:20:59 - @SarahDisney
1:28:30 - @mrsg00fy
1:28:52 - @canglim52
1:28:58 - @lhermiston
1:29:06 - @MissLiss279
1:29:26 - @TeeterTots
1:29:30 - @sylkai
1:29:58 - @pixarmom
1:30:00 - @Jules76126
1:30:15 - @rteetz
1:30:45 - @SarahDisney
1:30:58 - @FredtheDuck
1:31:13 - @KSellers88
1:31:31 - @YawningDodo
1:31:51 - @PCFriar80
1:31:51 - @run.minnie.miles
1:32:27 - @steph0808
1:32:32 - @Kerry1957
1:32:43 - @michigandergirl
1:33:00 - @bovie
1:33:12 - @sourire
1:33:15 - @Dis5150
1:33:57 - @jennamfeo
1:34:12 - @FFigawi
1:35:29 - @Sleepless Knight
1:35:42 - @garneska
1:35:43 - @DopeyBadger
The goal - Get a Top 2 placement and a 1st in AG.
Jules76126
Practically Perfect in Every Way
- Joined
- Apr 3, 2006
Best of luck. I leave for Ireland tomorrow night so not sure when I will see the results, but looking forward to seeing how you do.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
Thanks! Have fun in Ireland!
canglim52
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2016
I’ve read that Kenyan elites always overdress for their easy runs to help improve their heat adaptions. Not sure how true it is, but it makes sense especially since they usually run their easy runs very slow. I was thinking about trying it this winter(if you can call it that lol).
Also, got my fingers crossed for G!!
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
I believe it. I've seen plenty of pictures to suggest it. Just make sure easy stays easy though.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
Tomorrow...
Predicted Weather on this date for Hot2Trot HM morning
6/7/18 - T+D of 122, 56% chance of rain, cloudy, and light 8mph SSE wind
6/8/18 - T+D of 113, 24% chance of rain, 43% cloudy, and light 6 mph E wind
6/9/18 - T+D of 119, 38% change of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 4 mph SE wind
6/10/18 - T+D of 141 (!?), 22% chance of rain, 55% cloudy, and light 6 mph S wind
6/11/18 - T+D of 136, 36% chance of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSE wind
6/12/18 - T+D of 139, 24% chance of rain, 62% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSW wind
6/13/18 - T+D of 145, 12% chance of rain, 49% cloudy, and moderate 9 mph SSW wind
6/14/18 - T+D of 146, 7% chance of rain, 27% cloudy, and moderate 9 mph SSW wind
6/15/18 - T+D of 143, 10% chance of rain, 43% cloudy, and light 6 mph S wind
Final weather prediction. Things got pretty consistent with about a week to go. I think having some cloud cover will make it tolerable. Too bad though as this morning isn't that half bad with a cool breeze and a T+D of 120s and complete cloud cover. Of course I wake up this morning and my shin feels a little sore. It's all mental. It's all mental.
Predicted Weather on this date for Hot2Trot HM morning
6/7/18 - T+D of 122, 56% chance of rain, cloudy, and light 8mph SSE wind
6/8/18 - T+D of 113, 24% chance of rain, 43% cloudy, and light 6 mph E wind
6/9/18 - T+D of 119, 38% change of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 4 mph SE wind
6/10/18 - T+D of 141 (!?), 22% chance of rain, 55% cloudy, and light 6 mph S wind
6/11/18 - T+D of 136, 36% chance of rain, 50% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSE wind
6/12/18 - T+D of 139, 24% chance of rain, 62% cloudy, and light 6 mph SSW wind
6/13/18 - T+D of 145, 12% chance of rain, 49% cloudy, and moderate 9 mph SSW wind
6/14/18 - T+D of 146, 7% chance of rain, 27% cloudy, and moderate 9 mph SSW wind
6/15/18 - T+D of 143, 10% chance of rain, 43% cloudy, and light 6 mph S wind
Final weather prediction. Things got pretty consistent with about a week to go. I think having some cloud cover will make it tolerable. Too bad though as this morning isn't that half bad with a cool breeze and a T+D of 120s and complete cloud cover. Of course I wake up this morning and my shin feels a little sore. It's all mental. It's all mental.
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